2021 Calgary Flames NHL Draft

[The_People1]

3 hours ago, cross16 said:

NHL CSB has their final lists out. Further proof of how open this draft is. List is pretty all over the place compared to other resources

 

https://media.nhl.com/public/news/14983

 

I'm pretty high on Kent Johnson myself but no idea why McTavish is ranked so high.  He looks like a Sean Monahan.  Slow but lethal shot.  (Based on highlights only of course)

 

If Brant Clarke can drop to us at 12, then that would be absolutely amazing.  Wallstedt might be the wildcard because no idea which team would be willing to go with a goalie in the top 10.  Wallstedt is not as good as Askarov last year.

[The_People1]

Picking 12 is a tough spot.  Players for sure gone by then are,

Power

Clark

Hughes

Guenther

Berniers

Eklund

 

So now we pray and hope one of these guys drop,

Wallstedt

Johnson

Edvinsson

 

In the mix for us, I believe,

Mctavish

Sillinger

 

And that's it... the 11 players I've constantly seen ranked in the top 11.  Not surprised if all those 11 players are gone by pick #12.

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, The_People1 said:

Picking 12 is a tough spot.  Players for sure gone by then are,

Power

Clark

Hughes

Guenther

Berniers

Eklund

 

So now we pray and hope one of these guys drop,

Wallstedt

Johnson

Edvinsson

 

In the mix for us, I believe,

Mctavish

Sillinger

 

And that's it... the 11 players I've constantly seen ranked in the top 11.  Not surprised if all those 11 players are gone by pick #12.

 

 

I would be very happy with Wallstedt, Johnson or Edvinsson. 

 

I think all three are phenomenal for a pick as late as ours.

 

Really picking this late just means we're not getting that RHS but we're likely getting the same caliber and for the most part that's the difference between picking 12th or 10th.

 

I still feel this draft is highly under-rated and any move we make to acquire any picks especially in the first round would be welcome.

 

Realistically we won't get many other chances for that big dominant RHS D.  

 

You look at what these guys are doing in their leagues and try and find comparables....it's hard.

[zima]

So what happened to the draft balls could we not move up?

 

[travel_dude]

50 minutes ago, zima said:

So what happened to the draft balls could we not move up?

 

 

Still going to be drawn.

No change and we draft 12th.

Or a later team wins the lotto and we draft 13th.

Or two later teams win the lotto and we draft 14th.

Or we win one of the spots and draft 1st or 2nd.

 

That is all.

Hope for the latter.

[cross16]

2 hours ago, The_People1 said:

Picking 12 is a tough spot.  Players for sure gone by then are,

Power

Clark

Hughes

Guenther

Berniers

Eklund

 

So now we pray and hope one of these guys drop,

Wallstedt

Johnson

Edvinsson

 

In the mix for us, I believe,

Mctavish

Sillinger

 

And that's it... the 11 players I've constantly seen ranked in the top 11.  Not surprised if all those 11 players are gone by pick #12.

 

This is not a bad prize at all if no one falls. I'd be very happy with Sillinger. 

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

I still feel this draft is highly under-rated and any move we make to acquire any picks especially in the first round would be welcome.

 

 

I get that sentiment, but who exactly has a 1st to trade away?

Minny, NJ, DET and CBJ have more than one each, but I doubt they give up their own picks in trade.

The other 1sts available from them are from WAS, TBL and TOR.

 

Considering what DET and CBJ paid for those trades, I doubt they are easily available.

What's left is teams with better lotto odds than us and teams behind us.

 

Does a deep re-tool signal that we will have a bunch of 1st rounders coming back?

Monahan for upgrade.

Gaudreau for upgrade.

Tkachuk for upgrade.

Gio to expansion draft.

Any of those scream a 1st as part of the deal, whether you think BT is competent or not?

Should he is a different story.

[The_People1]

18 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

This is not a bad prize at all if no one falls. I'd be very happy with Sillinger. 

 

No I mean what if all 11 are gone including Sillinger and McTavish?  Tough spot to be in.

[cross16]

Just now, The_People1 said:

 

No I mean what if all 11 are gone including Sillinger and McTavish?  Tough spot to be in.

 

Not for me. They take Chaz Lucius and i'm equally as happy

[jjgallow]

 

4 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

No I mean what if all 11 are gone including Sillinger and McTavish?  Tough spot to be in.

 

For this to happen, 11 teams in a row would need to behave in a logical manner.

 

I have never seen this in any draft.

 

I think our biggest concern, unfortunately, is if the 12th team will behave in a logical manner.

[Thebrewcrew]

Really interesting to see the Central Scouting Final Rankings.

 

McTavish at 2 is really surprising. Good player for sure, but I'm a little higher on a handful of other guys than him. 

 

Othmann as well, another solid player, they clearly put a lot of stock into his performance in Switzerland. Plays with some jam.

 

 

It's going to be the most intriguing draft to watch in a long time. The intrigue literally starts at pick 1 this year. As someone who enjoys the draft, I can't wait. 

[The_People1]

44 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Really interesting to see the Central Scouting Final Rankings.

 

McTavish at 2 is really surprising. Good player for sure, but I'm a little higher on a handful of other guys than him. 

 

Othmann as well, another solid player, they clearly put a lot of stock into his performance in Switzerland. Plays with some jam.

 

 

It's going to be the most intriguing draft to watch in a long time. The intrigue literally starts at pick 1 this year. As someone who enjoys the draft, I can't wait. 

 

So that said, this might be a draft where trading up would be possible because the team trading down is got to think they're going to get someone good on their own list.

 

Could we, should we, for example, go Monahan + 12th overall for the 5th overall pick?  Is that worth it for us?

[Thebrewcrew]

4 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

So that said, this might be a draft where trading up would be possible because the team trading down is got to think they're going to get someone good on their own list.

 

Could we, should we, for example, go Monahan + 12th overall for the 5th overall pick?  Is that worth it for us?

This year it shouldn't be ruled out. Most years the top 5 is essentially written in stone, not this year. A team like DET sitting at 6th might be able to get their guy at 13th and may look to gain some assets. I think we may see some picks early in the draft that are a shock to people that just look at the rankings. It will be great theatre.

 

If I'm the Flames I'd be willing to trade up for 3 players, Matt Beniers, Brandt Clarke and Dylan Guenther. The Flames could likely trade up to the 6 or 7 range they have the draft capital to do-so, 4 3rd's and 3 2nd's in the 21 and 22 drafts. 

[The_People1]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

 

For this to happen, 11 teams in a row would need to behave in a logical manner.

 

I have never seen this in any draft.

 

I think our biggest concern, unfortunately, is if the 12th team will behave in a logical manner.

 

Trues.  I'm just thinking that since we see the same names on the top of all these rankings that we generally know the players being taken top 10, we just don't know the order they will be taken.  

[The_People1]

2 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

This year it shouldn't be ruled out. Most years the top 5 is essentially written in stone, not this year. A team like DET sitting at 6th might be able to get their guy at 13th and may look to gain some assets. I think we may see some picks early in the draft that are a shock to people that just look at the rankings. It will be great theatre.

 

If I'm the Flames I'd be willing to trade up for 3 players, Matt Beniers, Brandt Clarke and Dylan Guenther. The Flames could likely trade up to the 6 or 7 range they have the draft capital to do-so, 4 3rd's and 3 2nd's in the 21 and 22 drafts. 

 

Ya I'm wondering... If not #6... What if we just move up 3 spots.  What's the cost and/or maybe we trade down 3 spots.

 

Should be lots of movement on draft Day.

[Thebrewcrew]

3 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Ya I'm wondering... If not #6... What if we just move up 3 spots.  What's the cost and/or maybe we trade down 3 spots.

 

Should be lots of movement on draft Day.

Last year the Flames traded down twice, each time getting a 3rd. 

 

In 2019 the Coyotes traded from 14th to 11th, it cost them a 2nd. Makes sense as the 11th pick is more valuable than the 19th pick the Flames moved last year. 

 

For example, I'm a big fan of Brandt Clarke, I know I'm no expert, but I'd take him with a top 5 pick. If he's there in the 6-8th range I'd be all in on trying to trade-up. Issue would be the team picking 6th might be surprised Clarke is still there and have no interest in a trade. Another thing that makes it tough, if the lotto goes chalk, 1. BUF 2. ANA, picks 7,8,9 are SJ, LA and VAN. Would be tough to trade up with divisional rivals. 

[travel_dude]

26 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

This year it shouldn't be ruled out. Most years the top 5 is essentially written in stone, not this year. A team like DET sitting at 6th might be able to get their guy at 13th and may look to gain some assets. I think we may see some picks early in the draft that are a shock to people that just look at the rankings. It will be great theatre.

 

If I'm the Flames I'd be willing to trade up for 3 players, Matt Beniers, Brandt Clarke and Dylan Guenther. The Flames could likely trade up to the 6 or 7 range they have the draft capital to do-so, 4 3rd's and 3 2nd's in the 21 and 22 drafts. 

 

Here's a comment I heard about Guenther (not that I agree, but an interesting perspective).

Guenther scored a ton against two of the worst teams in the league.

I don't really have a concern with that myself. 

[Thebrewcrew]

6 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Here's a comment I heard about Guenther (not that I agree, but an interesting perspective).

Guenther scored a ton against two of the worst teams in the league.

I don't really have a concern with that myself. 

It's worth noting for sure. He took advantage of a weak division. That being said, in a normal season, he still would have posted 100+ points, he's that good.

 

With Cossa, thats where I look a little more at the weak division Edmonton played in. He's a heck of a goalie and I'm a big fan, but I think Guenther's numbers reflect his game more-so than Cossa. Again, I really like Cossa, but Medicine Hat didn't have Sillinger and Red Deer lost one of their best players, Grubbe early in the year. It isn't like he was facing Regina, Kamloops or Portland on a nightly basis. 

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, The_People1 said:

 

So that said, this might be a draft where trading up would be possible because the team trading down is got to think they're going to get someone good on their own list.

 

Could we, should we, for example, go Monahan + 12th overall for the 5th overall pick?  Is that worth it for us?

I keep Monahan. What about Monahan for a 10th or later pick? 
 

I would only do our 1st plus Monahan for a 1-3 pick and possibly the 4th overall. Are the guys in the top 5 that good that they’re worth Monahan and a low middle pick? Maybe.  
 

or has Monahan fallen so far? I just think he needed to go surgery once they knew. Invest in long term, not the now. Playing him through injury is shortsighted by the player and the team... 

 

 

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, The_People1 said:

 

Trues.  I'm just thinking that since we see the same names on the top of all these rankings that we generally know the players being taken top 10, we just don't know the order they will be taken.  

 

Unless there's been an update, Johnson didn't make top 12 on Button's list:

https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-defencemen-dominate-top-of-nhl-draft-prospect-rankings-1.1638404

 

Granted, the team most likely to follow Button is the Flames.    We were discussing earlier that he's likely shy of US College players atm.

 

And my own weirdness, I think Ceulemans could be severely under-rated.   RHS D that absolutely dominated  the under 18 WJ, based on that performance I'd say he's top 5.   But AJHL players very rarely are ranked high.    

 

It's a weird draft.  But that doesn't make it a bad draft.

[travel_dude]

17 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Unless there's been an update, Johnson didn't make top 12 on Button's list:

https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-defencemen-dominate-top-of-nhl-draft-prospect-rankings-1.1638404

 

Granted, the team most likely to follow Button is the Flames.    We were discussing earlier that he's likely shy of US College players atm.

 

And my own weirdness, I think Ceulemans could be severely under-rated.   RHS D that absolutely dominated  the under 18 WJ, based on that performance I'd say he's top 5.   But AJHL players very rarely are ranked high.    

 

It's a weird draft.  But that doesn't make it a bad draft.

 

Since you brought up AJHL, let's compare two players that came out of that league:

 

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=218674

 

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=152152

 

I'm a little leary of players that dominate at tourneys, like Puljujarvi did.

With one pick in the 1st would you go all in on a guy whose experience is only AJHL?

 

[jjgallow]

51 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Since you brought up AJHL, let's compare two players that came out of that league:

 

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=218674

 

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=152152

 

I'm a little leary of players that dominate at tourneys, like Puljujarvi did.

With one pick in the 1st would you go all in on a guy whose experience is only AJHL?

 

 

An admittedly interesting comparison,

 

Puljujarvi's career ended on draft day.    I find tournament successes to be, telling.  Far from a guarantee but I do place more weight on them.   Especially if a player plays better in tournaments.    

 

Hickey has me thinking a little bit.   After Janko I would completely understand if our organization doesn't rush to acquire more from the AJHL.    

 

So a couple considerations:

This year's AJHL is likely a tougher league.   Players who would normally graduate elsewhere, staying put.  Other players looking for a place to play.  There is a shortage of open leagues.

Hickey's offensive production is roughly half of what Ceuleman's is.    Also considering Ceuleman is a tad larger and a RHS.

 

There is a big difference between their production.   And in any league, that matters.

 

so the question is....is Ceuleman closer to  Hickey, or Cale Makar?   https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=178719

 

 

IMHO, Cale Makar is the better comparison.   However, it's also clear that he's no Cale Makar.

 

Overall, I will conceed some amount of hesitancy here yes.    I think his numbers support him being a very good NHLer.     But it is a difficult league to read, yes.

 

[travel_dude]

7 hours ago, jjgallow said:

So a couple considerations:

This year's AJHL is likely a tougher league.   Players who would normally graduate elsewhere, staying put.  Other players looking for a place to play.  There is a shortage of open leagues.

Hickey's offensive production is roughly half of what Ceuleman's is.    Also considering Ceuleman is a tad larger and a RHS.

 

There is a big difference between their production.   And in any league, that matters.

 

so the question is....is Ceuleman closer to  Hickey, or Cale Makar?   https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=178719

 

 

IMHO, Cale Makar is the better comparison.   However, it's also clear that he's no Cale Makar.

 

Overall, I will conceed some amount of hesitancy here yes.    I think his numbers support him being a very good NHLer.     But it is a difficult league to read, yes.

 

 

 

I don't know that size is any different, though I felt Hickey looks smaller.  Weight upon draft day maybe, not now.

Also, just a really small sample this season.

 

What does closer to Makar do for you?  

Here's a description about Makar:

 

Many have called Cale Makar one of the purest talents to ever crop up out of the AJHL. He reads and executes plays quickly, making good things happen for his teammates every time he is out on the ice. Stickhandling and puck possession play is superb. Makes high percentage decisions that help his team move the puck up-ice. High-end hockey IQ and understands his own game very well, allowing him to stay coachable and play to his strengths in any situation. Makar's potential is that of a traditional franchise defender that can do it all. [EP 2017]

 

And for Ceuleman:

The star of Ceuleman’s game is his shot and the ability to activate off the point to fire it.,

 

a scouting report:

However, fans should hesitate before they label Ceulemans as the next-coming of Makar, who was a generational talent that the AJHL had never seen before and won’t see again for some time. Ceulemans isn’t as sound defensively as his counterpart, and his struggles have been magnified by the fact that the AJHL is not known as a great development league, further deepening the divide between the two. He also can be too aggressive on the offense, and though his vision is top-notch, his decision-making isn’t always the best, and it can create turnovers.

But that doesn’t mean that Ceulemans isn’t talented. Although his defensive game isn’t strong, his offensive awareness is excellent. He is the best when he is carrying the puck, able to drive the play and deliver quick, crisp passes in order to create scoring opportunities. That skillset makes him a top power-play quarterback. He also has a physical side to his game and can provide pressure on opponents to force them off the puck. So, while he likely won’t be the next Makar, Ceulemans is without a doubt a top talent at the 2021 NHL Draft.

 

Look, I'm not trying to suggest he isn't a good choice, just he's not a slam dunk.  While safe is not always the best approach, especially in a poor competition year, swings for the fences are quite risky at this point in our prospect pool.  More like a kiddie pool.

[cross16]

I cannot think of any draft in recent memory where it went according to consensus. Someone always falls and this year I'm betting it's more than 1 or 2 guys. 

 

Someone on those lists is going to fall out of the top 10. More just a question of who is it and is it a player the Flames like or not.

 

I think this is the type of draft where you be patient and if it doesn't go your way then trade down and get more assets. I'd be fine with moving down multiple times as I find there are plenty of intriguing options ranked in the back half of the first round so getting those plus more lottery tickets late in the draft could really pay off. 

[travel_dude]

20 minutes ago, cross16 said:

I cannot think of any draft in recent memory where it went according to consensus. Someone always falls and this year I'm betting it's more than 1 or 2 guys. 

 

Someone on those lists is going to fall out of the top 10. More just a question of who is it and is it a player the Flames like or not.

 

I think this is the type of draft where you be patient and if it doesn't go your way then trade down and get more assets. I'd be fine with moving down multiple times as I find there are plenty of intriguing options ranked in the back half of the first round so getting those plus more lottery tickets late in the draft could really pay off. 

 

Our first rounders in recent memory seem to be decent enough choices considering the order we drafted.

We got Zary and a number of picks, even though it looks like he was the target.

Not a homerun, but in my mind a good choice.

Pelletier looks to be a good one considering where he was drafted.

 

Unless we trade it away, I think we get a very good pick this year.

I have more concern about our 2nd rounders than later picks, where we seem to shine.