So Where do we go from here? Analysis & Predictions

[MAC331]

9 hours ago, cross16 said:

As much as I really like Simmonds I have to agree that would not be a wise move. Thst would be the ultimate sell out to try and win a cup for two years because the cap would tear them apart after. Doesn't make sense for me, I'd prefer to extend the window. No guarantees Simmonds on this team wins them a cup. 

I think our team is in a good position to build from within for a good stretch of time. We may not have some ideal situations this coming season however I can see where possible improvement begins to take shape. Now some of this always depends on the progress of certain individuals but I think BT has started to assemble the right pieces. Putting certain players with other players is never an exact science and this is why I really like this pairs strategy for our forward lines. If you can get two that are exceptional together chances are you can slot in another complimentary talent at various times for various reasons. A team will need some flexibility throughout a full season due to injuries or some situations getting stale. Going with the pairings that we know work so far and where we could take the strategy might resemble this below as early as part of this season and beyond.

Gaudreau, Monahan, _____________

__________, Backlund, Frolik

Tkachuk, Bennett, _______________

Ferland, Jankowski, ______________

This IMO starts to define your core and what need to happen with planning to replace certain players at the appropriate times.

Right now our fillers are Versteeg, Brouwer, Lazar, Hamilton, Hathaway, Poirier, Shinkaruk, Klimchuk, Mangiapane and Foo. Where all this goes will depend on who stays and who goes between now and the 2018/19 season but I expect Stajan, Versteeg and Brouwer to be gone by then.

[kehatch]

To reiterate what Cross and Mac have said, we have a good core of young forwards. We just need to sign them, supplement them with the right cheap add ons that includes impact guys on EL contracts. 

 

Our biggest obstacles

 

1) Contracts like Stajan,  Brouwer, and possibly Stone. Too much money for depth guys. 

2) Keeping all of our top guy signed.

3) Finding the cheap EL contracts with our glut of picks. 

 

I don't think any of those are restrictive. Stajan is gone after this season, we have a lot of budget contracts, and we have some good prospects. But I think you really aggravate the issue if you trade away Bennett, a first, or other prospects for a guy getting paid in two years. 

 

Better to hope Jankowski, Bennett, Foo, or another makes an impact. If we are supplementing the roster at RW (and we should) I prefer a short term and cheap addition. 

[MAC331]

58 minutes ago, kehatch said:

To reiterate what Cross and Mac have said, we have a good core of young forwards. We just need to sign them, supplement them with the right cheap add ons that includes impact guys on EL contracts. 

 

Our biggest obstacles

 

1) Contracts like Stajan,  Brouwer, and possibly Stone. Too much money for depth guys. 

2) Keeping all of our top guy signed.

3) Finding the cheap EL contracts with our glut of picks. 

 

I don't think any of those are restrictive. Stajan is gone after this season, we have a lot of budget contracts, and we have some good prospects. But I think you really aggravate the issue if you trade away Bennett, a first, or other prospects for a guy getting paid in two years. 

 

Better to hope Jankowski, Bennett, Foo, or another makes an impact. If we are supplementing the roster at RW (and we should) I prefer a short term and cheap addition. 

Even RW could be managed for a few years yet starting this year by using Ferland, Versteeg and say Foo later on in the season. I know we would be hoping Foo could come in and be an impact RW. I don't think the Flames have any intention of trading away Bennett unless he really lays an egg this season.

[kehatch]

3 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

Even RW could be managed for a few years yet starting this year by using Ferland, Versteeg and say Foo later on in the season. I know we would be hoping Foo could come in and be an impact RW. I don't think the Flames have any intention of trading away Bennett unless he really lays an egg this season.

 

I agree that trading Bennett is unlikely. If they did it would probably be for a Simmonds or Duchene type of return. But from everything the organization says about him, they are really high on him. 

[MAC331]

46 minutes ago, kehatch said:

 

I agree that trading Bennett is unlikely. If they did it would probably be for a Simmonds or Duchene type of return. But from everything the organization says about him, they are really high on him. 

I just don't see the need for us to make a trade from outside if we have some patience. A few player situations will need to pan out but I think BT has the ship on the right track.

[cross16]

I am not personally as high on RW options coming from internal options. I'm fine with having patience I just don't see anyone on the team or in the system that can be consistantly productive on the top line in the next 2-3 seasons and given that is the Flames window with this current group that is a bit troublesome for me.

 

I think external options need to be explored but not at the price of Bennett and not for someone who would blow up the Flames cap in 2 years when he needs his 7 million or more. 

[The_People1]

33 minutes ago, cross16 said:

I am not personally as high on RW options coming from internal options. I'm fine with having patience I just don't see anyone on the team or in the system that can be consistantly productive on the top line in the next 2-3 seasons and given that is the Flames window with this current group that is a bit troublesome for me.

 

I think external options need to be explored but not at the price of Bennett and not for someone who would blow up the Flames cap in 2 years when he needs his 7 million or more. 

 

Phil Kessel man.  Signed for less than 7mil long term.  He's a winner.  Don't know if it's possible without giving up Bennett though.

[zima]

Haynes has done his prospect evaluations with Vickers check it out

 

 

[MAC331]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

I am not personally as high on RW options coming from internal options. I'm fine with having patience I just don't see anyone on the team or in the system that can be consistantly productive on the top line in the next 2-3 seasons and given that is the Flames window with this current group that is a bit troublesome for me.

 

I think external options need to be explored but not at the price of Bennett and not for someone who would blow up the Flames cap in 2 years when he needs his 7 million or more. 

I think the real answers we need this coming season and not just for RW lie with Bennett, Tkachuk, Lazar, Jankowski and Foo. Until we actually see what these players are capable of we won't know. If you want to talk this year, sure we could use someone other than Ferland to hold down the top RW. I don't buy this window BS this team is still building even if it is another step this coming season. They could make some further noise this season but I could see 2018/19 having more promise however as I said one or two of those mentioned would have to bust out o RW for us. From there I would like to see us be consistent contenders.

[Flyerfan52]

55 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Phil Kessel man.  Signed for less than 7mil long term.  He's a winner.  Don't know if it's possible without giving up Bennett though.

Actually he's signed for 8 million until 2021-22. His cap hit is 6.8 because TML are retaining 15%.

[Flyerfan52]

8 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

I think the real answers we need this coming season and not just for RW lie with Bennett, Tkachuk, Lazar, Jankowski and Foo. Until we actually see what these players are capable of we won't know. If you want to talk this year, sure we could use someone other than Ferland to hold down the top RW. I don't buy this window BS this team is still building even if it is another step this coming season. They could make some further noise this season but I could see 2018/19 having more promise however as I said one or two of those mentioned would have to bust out o RW for us. From there I would like to see us be consistent contenders.

I was reading today that it looks like Drew Stafford is open to a PTO. Not among my top choices for the top line (although if we weren't loaded with 2nd RWs I'd like him on the 2nd lone) but my top choices would all cost in players &/or picks. Since we don't have anyone that seems better (since Frolik with Backlund works so well) I'd give it a shot as PTOs usually end up as a 1 year bargain keeping the player on GMs minds while his play determines his next contract. If he doesn't outplay the current RWs nothing lost.

[travel_dude]

8 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

I don't buy this window BS this team is still building even if it is another step this coming season.

Consider what Gio may be in 2-3 years time.  Unless you are guaranteed to have Valimaki come in and take on 1st pairing duties in that time to replace Gio's possible decline, your window is really 2-3 years.  It has nothing to do with growth from prospects.  

 

Look at it this way.  The shelf life of the current roster is 2-3 years.  Unless you replace the effectiveness of certain players, you will be less likely to compete:

Stajan - likely a non factor by next season anyway

Brouwer - if he plays what everyone expected of him, then he would be a factor

Frolik - no replacement currently developed

Hamonic - possible we re-sign him, if not we have a hole again

Gio - biggest wildcard; nobody but Brodie is close to him currently

Smith/Lack - we hope that Gillies/Rittich/Parsons is ready to be a starter in this timeframe

 

  

[The_People1]

40 minutes ago, Flyerfan52 said:

Actually he's signed for 8 million until 2021-22. His cap hit is 6.8 because TML are retaining 15%.

 

Potato potato.  Angels. Aliens.

Same difference.

[conundrumed]

1 hour ago, Flyerfan52 said:

I was reading today that it looks like Drew Stafford is open to a PTO. Not among my top choices for the top line (although if we weren't loaded with 2nd RWs I'd like him on the 2nd lone) but my top choices would all cost in players &/or picks. Since we don't have anyone that seems better (since Frolik with Backlund works so well) I'd give it a shot as PTOs usually end up as a 1 year bargain keeping the player on GMs minds while his play determines his next contract. If he doesn't outplay the current RWs nothing lost.

At worst, he still gives us more RW depth that I think we need. And likely at a bargain. A 10 yr vet at a mil is the types of signings I like. When I watch the playoffs, the bottom 6's can sometimes really be changing the outcome, and a lot of times it's vets down there.

A few years back I was pointing out Chimera-Fiddler together is a mil less than Stajan alone on the 4th line.

I believe you need that to not only correct your 4th line cap hit, but do it with experienced NHLers that give you a pretty swanky foundation down low at low cost.

Yelle anyone?

I would not be against a PTO for Stafford, at all.

I wouldn't expect a 1st liner, 3rd, 4th or rover would be fine with me. It would provide a boost to our options without leaving any shortcomings on the bottom 6.

I prefer him over Chiasson, put it that way.

[zima]

I think Foo will surprise every one he might not be there at the start but by dec he will if not maybe he gets a 9 game shot to start.

[travel_dude]

37 minutes ago, zima said:

I think Foo will surprise every one he might not be there at the start but by dec he will if not maybe he gets a 9 game shot to start.

 

Not sure why you picked 9 games.  That's for juniors, not guys like Foo coming from college. 

[robrob74]

5 hours ago, MAC331 said:

I just don't see the need for us to make a trade from outside if we have some patience. A few player situations will need to pan out but I think BT has the ship on the right track.

 

I feel like, even if Bennett improves only a bit on last season, it's a bonus for the team. He's a good penalty killer, he is a fairly decent two-way player. Let's say he gets 15-20 goals and 15-20 assists? That's decent third line contributions. 

 

Personally, if it were me coaching, I would have him on the pp as it's a boost for his morale. He might gain more confidence 5 vs 5. 

 

I agree, growth within is the way forward now.

[MAC331]

3 hours ago, travel_dude said:

Consider what Gio may be in 2-3 years time.  Unless you are guaranteed to have Valimaki come in and take on 1st pairing duties in that time to replace Gio's possible decline, your window is really 2-3 years.  It has nothing to do with growth from prospects.  

 

Look at it this way.  The shelf life of the current roster is 2-3 years.  Unless you replace the effectiveness of certain players, you will be less likely to compete:

Stajan - likely a non factor by next season anyway

Brouwer - if he plays what everyone expected of him, then he would be a factor

Frolik - no replacement currently developed

Hamonic - possible we re-sign him, if not we have a hole again

Gio - biggest wildcard; nobody but Brodie is close to him currently

Smith/Lack - we hope that Gillies/Rittich/Parsons is ready to be a starter in this timeframe

 

  

Like I said its BS. You are always replacing players and the pipeline we have has quality within to have the Flames remain competitive past the players mentioned. Saying we need to win the Cup in the next 2 to 3 years is a must or what ? we rebuild again ? what is this window you refer to ?

[AlbertaBoy12]

2 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

Like I said its BS. You are always replacing players and the pipeline we have has quality within to have the Flames remain competitive past the players mentioned. Saying we need to win the Cup in the next 2 to 3 years is a must or what ? we rebuild again ? what is this window you refer to ?

I dont get where this came from either. The current group will probably be together for 2 years with very minimal changes, but in 3 years when contracts are coming up, it shouldnt be overly difficult for guys like andersson, fox, valamaki to step in on D and at forwards we have a glut of middle 6 potential guys, take your pick there. To go along with that even with goalies being voodoo the chances of parsons or gillies at the very least being NHL ready is pretty high.

 

While the group in 3 years might not be immediately as good, I would say chances are plenty of guys are ready to step in and be just as good if not better.

[kehatch]

The Flames do have a window over the next three years.  The contracts dictate that.  Even Gaudreau mentioned their three year window.  In that time frame they are going to either lose core guys or have to pay them more money.  Are the Flames going to be able to replace those guys / contracts and open up another window?  Perhaps, I hope so, and there is reason for optimism. 

 

But three years are a long time in Hockey.  Only Chicago and Anaheim have been consistently in the top 10 in the last three seasons.  Only six teams have a current playoff streak longer then 3 seasons (Pittsburgh, Chicago, New York Rangers, St Louis, Minnesota).  Considering we haven't even shown our window is open yet I think its a bit premature to be suggesting it will be open longer then three seasons.  

[MAC331]

12 hours ago, kehatch said:

The Flames do have a window over the next three years.  The contracts dictate that.  Even Gaudreau mentioned their three year window.  In that time frame they are going to either lose core guys or have to pay them more money.  Are the Flames going to be able to replace those guys / contracts and open up another window?  Perhaps, I hope so, and there is reason for optimism. 

 

But three years are a long time in Hockey.  Only Chicago and Anaheim have been consistently in the top 10 in the last three seasons.  Only six teams have a current playoff streak longer then 3 seasons (Pittsburgh, Chicago, New York Rangers, St Louis, Minnesota).  Considering we haven't even shown our window is open yet I think its a bit premature to be suggesting it will be open longer then three seasons.  

I think your last line is hogwash. The window is every year with any given team, our team has transitioned from mess to rebuild to building with the current core group. Sure contracts may interfere with certain players being here or not here when our best runs at the Cup may happen, that's life. Saying our window is in the next 2 to 3 years to win a Cup should be put in the context of "for who" ? Girodano, perhaps but he has a few years remaining. As an organization and fanbase you want your team to be a good team that will contend each and every season. A Cup or two is icing on the cake.

[cross16]

The Flames do have a very clear window with this current group. As you see it constructed, the Flames are going to have 2-3 years as the roster currently stands as a window to get someone done before big changes are going to have to be made and questions will arise. 

 

Smith is under contract for 2 years what happen then? Is he still viable? What if Gilles/Parsons hasn't made it or doesn't pan out?

Brodie and Hamonic have 3 years and Hamilton has 4. No way at their current projections you can keep all 3 plus Gio on your D core so change will have to be made. Sure maybe Valamaki, Kylington or Andersson is ready but what if they are not? What if they are not top pairing, how do you adjust? If Andersson doesn't pan out where does that leave your RH shot situation?

Tkachuk is up in 2 years and likely going to need to get paid. Where does that money come from? What is Bennet's contract situation.

 

No one is suggesting the Flames will fall off a cliff in 2-3 years but it's pretty clear that this group has a 2-3 window before changes need to be made. Changes may be for the better or for the worse we will have to see but I agree with Kehatch that it's overly optimistic to think the Flames are going to have that long a window for contention, especially if they can't hit on either Gilles or Parsons. 

[MAC331]

53 minutes ago, cross16 said:

The Flames do have a very clear window with this current group. As you see it constructed, the Flames are going to have 2-3 years as the roster currently stands as a window to get someone done before big changes are going to have to be made and questions will arise. 

 

Smith is under contract for 2 years what happen then? Is he still viable? What if Gilles/Parsons hasn't made it or doesn't pan out?

Brodie and Hamonic have 3 years and Hamilton has 4. No way at their current projections you can keep all 3 plus Gio on your D core so change will have to be made. Sure maybe Valamaki, Kylington or Andersson is ready but what if they are not? What if they are not top pairing, how do you adjust? If Andersson doesn't pan out where does that leave your RH shot situation?

Tkachuk is up in 2 years and likely going to need to get paid. Where does that money come from? What is Bennet's contract situation.

 

No one is suggesting the Flames will fall off a cliff in 2-3 years but it's pretty clear that this group has a 2-3 window before changes need to be made. Changes may be for the better or for the worse we will have to see but I agree with Kehatch that it's overly optimistic to think the Flames are going to have that long a window for contention, especially if they can't hit on either Gilles or Parsons. 

Change is likely to be constant so balancing the right mix of experience and ready young talent will always be a factor on how far you get each year. if the window you refer to is about certain players then yes there is definition. The experience level is always a moving target any good GM has to account for each situation. As an example if they want Valimaki to eventually replace either Giordano or Brodie they should get him in as early as 2018/19. If this is it for Backlund they will be measuring up both Bennett and Jankowski maybe throw Lazar into the equation as well. The team as a whole can stay competitive if the proper amount of thought and planning goes into the process. Now of course you need quality prospects to keep the quality of competitiveness par with being contenders and this is what I am referring too.

[rickross]

19 hours ago, MAC331 said:

Like I said its BS. You are always replacing players and the pipeline we have has quality within to have the Flames remain competitive past the players mentioned. Saying we need to win the Cup in the next 2 to 3 years is a must or what ? we rebuild again ? what is this window you refer to ?

I too like many of you was caught off guard by Trelivings 2-3 win now mandate. I think many of us still don't believe we are Cup contenders with our current roster and I'd agree to an extent. I think BT was really just referring to our Defensive and goalie stability for the next 2-3 years. Ideally we should only have to tinker with our fwd group for the next 2-3 years, it's easier than finding new high end defensive pairings. 

 

On on paper we do seem to be closer to contenders then the pretenders of last year. I'm still not 100% convinced GG is the coach that leads us to the Cup, however he has improved on most of the team's metrics. 

 

MAC331 brings up a good point concerning the direction of this team after that 3 yr window closes. Our fwds our still young enough but we'd essentially be looking at rebuilding our D around Hamilton and D prospects on the come up if we don't resign our existing vets. As much as it appears as though Treliving may have jumped the gun with "win now" mandate...what are we waiting for? We're no longer a draft dependent team so why not put a little pressure on the team to succeed and go after the Cup now?

[MAC331]

1 minute ago, rickross said:

I too like many of you was caught off guard by Trelivings 2-3 win now mandate. I think many of us still don't believe we are Cup contenders with our current roster and I'd agree to an extent. I think BT was really just referring to our Defensive and goalie stability for the next 2-3 years. Ideally we should only have to tinker with our fwd group for the next 2-3 years, it's easier than finding new high end defensive pairings. 

 

On on paper we do seem to be closer to contenders then the pretenders of last year. I'm still not 100% convinced GG is the coach that leads us to the Cup, however he has improved on most of the team's metrics. 

 

MAC331 brings up a good point concerning the direction of this team after that 3 yr window closes. Our fwds our still young enough but we'd essentially be looking at rebuilding our D around Hamilton and D prospects on the come up if we don't resign our existing vets. As much as it appears as though Treliving may have jumped the gun with "win now" mandate...what are we waiting for? We're no longer a draft dependent team so why not put a little pressure on the team to succeed and go after the Cup now?

I agree with BT to a degree that we have enough experience on this team to compete for a Cup now however the caveat being the play of our young talent excelling from here.

I don't think you can or should pick an ideal time that you think your team will be ready to win a Cup. Not having the ideal top line RW should not be an excuse that holds this team back.