So Where do we go from here? Analysis & Predictions

[Flyerfan52]

4 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

Read a translated story that said Ferland's agent is looking for 4 years.  Implied that the Flames wanted a shorter term.

Should learn soon enough if he files for arbitration.

 

EDIT - He did file for arbitration.  AT least it opens up another buyout window, should the Flames require one.

At least arbitration allows the Flames to select either a 1 or 2 year term (2 is the max & the non-filing party selects).

 

[phoenix66]

17 minutes ago, Flyerfan52 said:

At least arbitration allows the Flames to select either a 1 or 2 year term (2 is the max & the non-filing party selects).

 

I find that all kind of backwards, If i were his agent I'd be pushing for a 2 yr,  hes just coming into his own he'd be likely looking at a better payday in 2 years, whereas the Flames should be looking to lock him up for 4 at likely a reduced rate of his projected level .

Same with Bennett.. i'd be begging for a Bridge if I'm his agent

[travel_dude]

21 minutes ago, Flyerfan52 said:

At least arbitration allows the Flames to select either a 1 or 2 year term (2 is the max & the non-filing party selects).

 

 

I am fine with that.  Maybe a trade of players that filed?  Ferland for Nino?

Would be a loss of a potentially good player for a current top 6 RW.   

[travel_dude]

2 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

I find that all kind of backwards, If i were his agent I'd be pushing for a 2 yr,  hes just coming into his own he'd be likely looking at a better payday in 2 years, whereas the Flames should be looking to lock him up for 4 at likely a reduced rate of his projected level .

Same with Bennett.. i'd be begging for a Bridge if I'm his agent

 

The two players may have different needs.

By filing, Ferland cab either gets what he wants by settling before (term for a new dad that wants stability) or gets a short-term higher value deal now.  Bennett would want max pay as soon as possible.  He also has zero leverage.

[AlbertaBoy12]

8 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

I am fine with that.  Maybe a trade of players that filed?  Ferland for Nino?

Would be a loss of a potentially good player for a current top 6 RW.   

Id be interested in that trade, im assuming we would have to give something else up, I wonder what it would take to make that deal.

[phoenix66]

2 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

The two players may have different needs.

By filing, Ferland cab either gets what he wants by settling before (term for a new dad that wants stability) or gets a short-term higher value deal now.  Bennett would want max pay as soon as possible.  He also has zero leverage.

for sure, i dont read anything into a player filing .. pretty much its an automatic thing if youre not signed yet 

If I'm Bennett, I'm looking at what Draisaitl is about to get, and using that as motivation .. prove myself for 2- 3 more years then cash out .

 

personally , when the dust settles ,I think  $5M gets you both Bennett and Ferland, how it shakes in terms of Division , term, etc.. i have no idea..  3(Bennett) +2(Ferland) makes sense

[CheersMan]

9 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

I find that all kind of backwards, If i were his agent I'd be pushing for a 2 yr,  hes just coming into his own he'd be likely looking at a better payday in 2 years, whereas the Flames should be looking to lock him up for 4 at likely a reduced rate of his projected level .

Same with Bennett.. i'd be begging for a Bridge if I'm his agent

I agree.  If Ferland settles in on the top line and pops 25-30 this year, look out.  We are going to wish we had him on a 4yr x $2. 

[travel_dude]

21 minutes ago, CheersMan said:

I agree.  If Ferland settles in on the top line and pops 25-30 this year, look out.  We are going to wish we had him on a 4yr x $2. 

 

Who really knows where the truth lies.  Agents say a lot of things and sometimes we hear fake news.

I think 4 would take him to UFA, so that may not be a great term either.  

[cross16]

5 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Who really knows where the truth lies.  Agents say a lot of things and sometimes we hear fake news.

I think 4 would take him to UFA, so that may not be a great term either.  

 

Fairly certain Ferland is eligible for UFA in 2 years so a 2 year deal could be very problematic too

 

This is all tricky for the same reason Bouma was and its the same debate. Back then the people who wanted term said the same thing "well in a couple years we'll sure be lucky he signed for 2...". Didn't work out and I think the same fears are valid with Ferland. I like Ferland but i'm not sure he is a permanent fit on the top line and will likely settle in as a middle 6 forward who can put up 10-15 goals annually. Signing that for 4 years at 2.5 or more (which is maybe what his agent is after and why he wants term) is not a smart investment. 

I can see why the Flames want a short term deal and I happen to agree with them. 

[Flyerfan52]

9 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

Fairly certain Ferland is eligible for UFA in 2 years so a 2 year deal could be very problematic too

 

This is all tricky for the same reason Bouma was and its the same debate. Back then the people who wanted term said the same thing "well in a couple years we'll sure be lucky he signed for 2...". Didn't work out and I think the same fears are valid with Ferland. I like Ferland but i'm not sure he is a permanent fit on the top line and will likely settle in as a middle 6 forward who can put up 10-15 goals annually. Signing that for 4 years at 2.5 or more (which is maybe what his agent is after and why he wants term) is not a smart investment. 

I can see why the Flames want a short term deal and I happen to agree with them. 

So do I.

How long he's on the 1st line is iffy as BT will  be on the lookout via trade, FA or internally. He won't want to commit term & $s on a short term experiment where Ferland did OK.

There's a big difference on what you want to pay a middle 6 as opposed to a true 1st liner (which is why Monahan & Gaudreau got the big contracts fast).

[zima]

 

22 hours ago, cross16 said:

Jesper Fast of the Rangers just re signed on a 3 year deal with an AAV of 1.85

You would think that would be a given what do they expect to pay a hard hitting scoring foward with I think more upside to come? 3 yrs is fair he is young he's not a Bouma I don't think I wonder where they are going with term and money? can't be that far off no player that is in his category is getting much less than 1.8 curios.

[MAC331]

17 minutes ago, zima said:

 

You would think that would be a given what do they expect to pay a hard hitting scoring foward with I think more upside to come? 3 yrs is fair he is young he's not a Bouma I don't think I wonder where they are going with term and money? can't be that far off no player that is in his category is getting much less than 1.8 curios.

Something like this would also be fair for Ferland. He will see some time on the JG/SM line but I agree he is more likely to settle in middle 6 and still contribute. Should he keep contributing he will see better pay days ahead.

[Carty]

Too bad Jussi Jokinen signed with the Oil...   Cheap at 1.1 Mil too...

[rickross]

Flames will need to break top 10 in team stats if they want to evolve into contenders. We'll see if Smith/Lack and our beefed up D core can help bring GAA down. Same with our forwards, goals for should improve and hopefully we see more offence from our D group. Our PP did improve but I found it was inconsistent and too predictable at times, hopefully it can be even more potent next season. I'm expecting a noticeable improvement in execution year 2 into the GG era, not leaps and bounds but I think this team should solidify its identity and play style

[MAC331]

I think BT has done a fantastic job this offseason however a couple of things I am seeing in comments lately is this rush to the SC. People look around at first Nashville's success to reach the SC and secondly the Western Conference 2017/18 as being ripe for the pickings. Plus BT makes a comment about being "all in" and all of a sudden we are talking Jagr and Kessel types to put us over the top.

I see a team that still has not a ton of work but some to get our core more accomplished with the experience and maturity to win a SC. The 3 things I am going to mention IMO are the important areas our team requires to make a further jump in their growth. 1, Making the right decision surrounding where Tkachuk will play. Some may say he is the least of our worries however I think to improve his future, Bennett's future and the team overall he should play with Bennett on LW. 2. I believe BT and GG have already made the decision to give Ferland the opportunity to play RW with Gaudreau and Monahan which is fine and will help define whether the hunt continues for someone better. This decision again IMO puts Foo in Stockton for some added development. 3. Stajan remains and should remain a C which leaves the remaining decisions surrounding the use of Versteeg and Brouwer. Does one or the other play on a line with Backlund and Frolik or should these 3,Versteeg, Stajan and Brouwer form their own line ? I pick the last option to put them altogether for our 4th line. Well who plays with Backlund and Frolik then ? I say let Poirier, Shinkaruk, Mangiapane and Klimchuk battle it out in this year's camp. May the best man win and may the other help form some very needed solid depth in Stockton along with Jankowski.

The dark horse I would like to see win the position is Poirier.

[rickross]

3 hours ago, MAC331 said:

I think BT has done a fantastic job this offseason however a couple of things I am seeing in comments lately is this rush to the SC. People look around at first Nashville's success to reach the SC and secondly the Western Conference 2017/18 as being ripe for the pickings. Plus BT makes a comment about being "all in" and all of a sudden we are talking Jagr and Kessel types to put us over the top.

I see a team that still has not a ton of work but some to get our core more accomplished with the experience and maturity to win a SC. The 3 things I am going to mention IMO are the important areas our team requires to make a further jump in their growth. 1, Making the right decision surrounding where Tkachuk will play. Some may say he is the least of our worries however I think to improve his future, Bennett's future and the team overall he should play with Bennett on LW. 2. I believe BT and GG have already made the decision to give Ferland the opportunity to play RW with Gaudreau and Monahan which is fine and will help define whether the hunt continues for someone better. This decision again IMO puts Foo in Stockton for some added development. 3. Stajan remains and should remain a C which leaves the remaining decisions surrounding the use of Versteeg and Brouwer. Does one or the other play on a line with Backlund and Frolik or should these 3,Versteeg, Stajan and Brouwer form their own line ? I pick the last option to put them altogether for our 4th line. Well who plays with Backlund and Frolik then ? I say let Poirier, Shinkaruk, Mangiapane and Klimchuk battle it out in this year's camp. May the best man win and may the other help form some very needed solid depth in Stockton along with Jankowski.

The dark horse I would like to see win the position is Poirier.

We need our forward prospects to step it up. We spent a lot of picks drafting forwards and we've seen better development with our D prospects. I commend BT as well...he killed it this off season, all prior to July 1st. I was a bit surprised that BT was prepared to go "all in" swing that we still have a few holes to plug. Our goalies and new D men are still unproven under the Flames system, those are key pieces we shouldn't crown prior to see the results. BT has more faith in GG at this point then I, I believe he's a great coach that can see us through as contenders but I'm not ready to say he's the one to push us into the elite tier of teams. Ferland is a capable linemate for JH and Monny but we need a true 1st line RW, Brouwer isn't it and I'd say Foo is a long shot to crack 1st line duties this year. They need an additional threat on that line to open up more room for JH and Monny, otherwise teams simply pressure JH taking away his playmaking opportunities. Besides your 2nd line shouldn't be your best line all year...that's why you pay top $ to your 1st line players. Here's hoping the Flames can solve their RW riddle this season. 

[AlbertaBoy12]

53 minutes ago, rickross said:

We need our forward prospects to step it up. We spent a lot of picks drafting forwards and we've seen better development with our D prospects. I commend BT as well...he killed it this off season, all prior to July 1st. I was a bit surprised that BT was prepared to go "all in" swing that we still have a few holes to plug. Our goalies and new D men are still unproven under the Flames system, those are key pieces we shouldn't crown prior to see the results. BT has more faith in GG at this point then I, I believe he's a great coach that can see us through as contenders but I'm not ready to say he's the one to push us into the elite tier of teams. Ferland is a capable linemate for JH and Monny but we need a true 1st line RW, Brouwer isn't it and I'd say Foo is a long shot to crack 1st line duties this year. They need an additional threat on that line to open up more room for JH and Monny, otherwise teams simply pressure JH taking away his playmaking opportunities. Besides your 2nd line shouldn't be your best line all year...that's why you pay top $ to your 1st line players. Here's hoping the Flames can solve their RW riddle this season. 

regardless of how you view lineups I think we need to get over this huge hole on the top line RW. I think every team in the league has holes, ie pittsbugh defense is not the greatest around and they are solid for what you need. Edmonton is much the same at defense, anaheim has holes in their forward group, the list goes on and on. JH will be fine as I stated in another thread he put up 61 points last season and probably would have put up more if he didnt miss 10 games, I wouldnt be worried.

[MAC331]

51 minutes ago, rickross said:

We need our forward prospects to step it up. We spent a lot of picks drafting forwards and we've seen better development with our D prospects. I commend BT as well...he killed it this off season, all prior to July 1st. I was a bit surprised that BT was prepared to go "all in" swing that we still have a few holes to plug. Our goalies and new D men are still unproven under the Flames system, those are key pieces we shouldn't crown prior to see the results. BT has more faith in GG at this point then I, I believe he's a great coach that can see us through as contenders but I'm not ready to say he's the one to push us into the elite tier of teams. Ferland is a capable linemate for JH and Monny but we need a true 1st line RW, Brouwer isn't it and I'd say Foo is a long shot to crack 1st line duties this year. They need an additional threat on that line to open up more room for JH and Monny, otherwise teams simply pressure JH taking away his playmaking opportunities. Besides your 2nd line shouldn't be your best line all year...that's why you pay top $ to your 1st line players. Here's hoping the Flames can solve their RW riddle this season. 

I'm not sure what you mean by your first statement. Yes we spent our latest draft picks on forwards such as Monahan, Bennett and Tkachuk all of which have a significant future for us. If you mean the use of picks to land Hamilton and Hamonic I see them as significant as the 3 mentioned. I think BT has things going in the right direction and the "all in" is fine but I look for the team to be progressively better. I don't think there should be any panic regarding the RW with JG and SM, Ferland is best to start there and adjust if necessary throughout the season. Thinking you have the right "paper roster" at the start means nothing really. I see this as another season of adjustment and more players getting use to each other again. Where it all takes us is why we play the games.

[phoenix66]

2 hours ago, rickross said:

We need our forward prospects to step it up. We spent a lot of picks drafting forwards and we've seen better development with our D prospects. I commend BT as well...he killed it this off season, all prior to July 1st. I was a bit surprised that BT was prepared to go "all in" swing that we still have a few holes to plug. Our goalies and new D men are still unproven under the Flames system, those are key pieces we shouldn't crown prior to see the results. BT has more faith in GG at this point then I, I believe he's a great coach that can see us through as contenders but I'm not ready to say he's the one to push us into the elite tier of teams. Ferland is a capable linemate for JH and Monny but we need a true 1st line RW, Brouwer isn't it and I'd say Foo is a long shot to crack 1st line duties this year. They need an additional threat on that line to open up more room for JH and Monny, otherwise teams simply pressure JH taking away his playmaking opportunities. Besides your 2nd line shouldn't be your best line all year...that's why you pay top $ to your 1st line players. Here's hoping the Flames can solve their RW riddle this season. 

 

In the new NHL.. you need to strike when the payroll allows it.  By that , I mean look at Chicago, they haven't won a cup since K/T started getting their big paydays..  LA went all in and now they are a hot mess cuz they have no way to sustain it .

The MO of winners tho , has been Goal, deep down the middle and an effective top 4 D.. the sides get filled in by patchwork

In our system, we were on track to start being contenders in 2-3 years .. what BT has done, is opened that 2-3 years without damaging the projected team in the future..

We got 3 years until we have to worry about losing players to keep others 

 

Granted McD and the rumored lower than expected Leon contract has cushioned it somewhat , but Edmonton essentially better go all in this year or that window may slam shut

Pittsburgh just lost half their team 

Washington ditto

Nashville still has a good shot at getting back there , but they have to hope Rinne can do it again 

 

So basically , yes, it would be awesome to get those wings as solid, but not necessary to do what we have to do

[phoenix66]

This would be awesome.. I had him pegged 2-2.5/year .

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/report-flames-working-two-year-3-5-million-deal-ferland/

[cross16]

 

On a 2 year deal that is where he should be. Doesn't buy any UFA years so at that point there is really not leverage for him to get paid more. Believe this will take him right to UFA though so certainly some risk there that if he does take off, he'll be very expensive to retain. 

[Flyerfan52]

51 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

On a 2 year deal that is where he should be. Doesn't buy any UFA years so at that point there is really not leverage for him to get paid more. Believe this will take him right to UFA though so certainly some risk there that if he does take off, he'll be very expensive to retain. 

Only if he maintains his play for 2 years & actually ups it proving he can play the 1st line long term. That'd be a nice problem to have.

OTOH if he fades under expectations of doubling his $s @ least he came in cheaper than Bouma & can be used as a role player.

 

In 2 years the cream of the prospects should be ready (if not they probably won't ever be) especially the goalies. If Bennett hasn't proven himself by then the luster is off & we've got a decent 3rd liner that will get paid as 1. A few of the older players will be gone so the cap should be able to afford him.

[manu11]

I think this is fine, I had him at 1.8mil per for two years. Although I must say for me, he was the toughest to judge based on his performance. He had 10 games, where he looked like he's about to become a top6 player followed by 10-15 games where he was near invisble and looked more like a 4th liner. He redeemed himself from a poor 15/16 season, but needs to get more consistent.

[Cowtownguy]

1 hour ago, manu11 said:

I think this is fine, I had him at 1.8mil per for two years. Although I must say for me, he was the toughest to judge based on his performance. He had 10 games, where he looked like he's about to become a top6 player followed by 10-15 games where he was near invisble and looked more like a 4th liner. He redeemed himself from a poor 15/16 season, but needs to get more consistent.

I suspect that a lot of us think that way about him. At times, he shows tremendous potential followed by a period of time in the Witness Protection Program. If he can be more impactful on a consistent basis, then he should earn the dough.

[manu11]

3 minutes ago, Cowtownguy said:

I suspect that a lot of us think that way about him. At times, he shows tremendous potential followed by a period of time in the Witness Protection Program. If he can be more impactful on a consistent basis, then he should earn the dough.

 

Agreed, the next 2 years will show if he can find his spot on the team or if he contuines to bounce around the lineup.