So Where do we go from here? Analysis & Predictions

[Cowtownguy]

2 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

I get what you're saying, maybe having a defender on with Bennett gives him a sense of freedom to do his thing. Although, I think Bennett's two-way game is one of the best on the team, after Backlund and Frolik. That's really because they score more, but Bennett will catch-up just as they did. 

Maybe. I kind of thought that Bennett needed someone on the wing with serious speed. It seems to me that speed is his greatest attribute. When he slows it down, he does not look good IMO. Now, maybe that is the result of the coaches teaching him defensive play. I would like to see those offensive skills shine brighter again. I am certain that he can do it.

[robrob74]

5 minutes ago, Cowtownguy said:

Maybe. I kind of thought that Bennett needed someone on the wing with serious speed. It seems to me that speed is his greatest attribute. When he slows it down, he does not look good IMO. Now, maybe that is the result of the coaches teaching him defensive play. I would like to see those offensive skills shine brighter again. I am certain that he can do it.

 

A guy that can keep up would be great with him. 

 

After talking about Ferland in the line combos thread, I would see about shifting Ferland to Bennett's line, and maybe Tkachuk. Ferland is fast enough to keep up. Tkachuk is skilled enough to create space. All three are aggressive. Ferland likes to hit, but right now seems to have a hit quota and having other hitters will make it seem he hits enough...

[travel_dude]

48 minutes ago, Carty said:

 

Jussi could be a decent addition if it was in the right price range...   Another possible line combo could to put Jokinen with Bennett and Versteeg to balance it out...   Jussi can play a more defensively responsible style than Bennett or Versteeg, and could compliment their offensive skills and add some stability 

 

What do you think about signing Brandon Pirri.  Just two years removed from scoring 22 in ANA.  15g on 2015/16.  Plays either wing.  I can't exactly remember how he looked last season, but he was not playing in the playoffs.

[JTech780]

So our defense should be even better than it was last year, I believe the goaltending is much improved. The one area that Treliving hasn't made much of an adjustment to is the forwards. 5v5 scoring was an issue for this team last year that's not a doubt. I do however think we have the ability to improve that with the guys that are here already. Quite honestly the fact that both Monahan and Gaudreau finished with less than 200 shots is unacceptable, those guys need to shot more. Dougie was our leading shooter last year with 222 shots, Frolik was next with 202 shots, as good as those two are they shouldn't be the leading shooters on the team. 

 

This team at times gets to caught up in looking for the perfect shot instead of just getting pucks to the net, I think if GG can stress the need to shoot more right from the start of camp this team can become a much better 5v5 scoring team.

[MAC331]

29 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

A guy that can keep up would be great with him. 

 

After talking about Ferland in the line combos thread, I would see about shifting Ferland to Bennett's line, and maybe Tkachuk. Ferland is fast enough to keep up. Tkachuk is skilled enough to create space. All three are aggressive. Ferland likes to hit, but right now seems to have a hit quota and having other hitters will make it seem he hits enough...

I don't know if they will do it but I would try Spenser Foo right out of the chute with those two Tkachuk and Bennett.

[MAC331]

1 hour ago, Carty said:

 

Jussi could be a decent addition if it was in the right price range...   Another possible line combo could to put Jokinen with Bennett and Versteeg to balance it out...   Jussi can play a more defensively responsible style than Bennett or Versteeg, and could compliment their offensive skills and add some stability 

I agree about the right price for sure but I think the more versatility we have within our line up could serve us well throughout the season. We need to be better on faceoffs and 5 on 5 scoring so some well balanced lines could go a long way.

[phoenix66]

3 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

I don't know if they will do it but I would try Spenser Foo right out of the chute with those two Tkachuk and Bennett.

I'm sure he's in the mix.. barring any unexpected top end additions I expect a wide open competition at training camp

[robrob74]

13 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

I don't know if they will do it but I would try Spenser Foo right out of the chute with those two Tkachuk and Bennett.

 

That would be a good shot as well.

 

i hope they don't over-invite and water down camp too much this year. It probably wasn't what made us miss the year before, but the team looked in disarray after having a huge amount at camp. It took the team longer to gel.

[Carty]

48 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

What do you think about signing Brandon Pirri.  Just two years removed from scoring 22 in ANA.  15g on 2015/16.  Plays either wing.  I can't exactly remember how he looked last season, but he was not playing in the playoffs.

 

Maybe I'm wrong and he has more upside than I think, but if I was looking to sum up my thoughts on Pirri in one word it would be 'meh'...   Not the end of the world if they added Pirri to the lineup, but I would rather they aimed higher...

[travel_dude]

2 minutes ago, Carty said:

 

Maybe I'm wrong and he has more upside than I think, but if I was looking to sum up my thoughts on Pirri in one word it would be 'meh'...   Not the end of the world if they added Pirri to the lineup, but I would rather they aimed higher...

 

I know what you mean.  Foo probably could equal his production from last year.  Sharp was a decent add, bit lost out on that.  Don;t really want any projects.

He kind of fell off the chart a bit.

 

NO real big names out there.  Does Jokinen eve play center anymore or just another LW?

 

[MAC331]

1 minute ago, travel_dude said:

 

I know what you mean.  Foo probably could equal his production from last year.  Sharp was a decent add, bit lost out on that.  Don;t really want any projects.

He kind of fell off the chart a bit.

 

NO real big names out there.  Does Jokinen eve play center anymore or just another LW?

 

List him as all 3 positions LW, C and RW.

[Flyerfan52]

7 minutes ago, Carty said:

 

Maybe I'm wrong and he has more upside than I think, but if I was looking to sum up my thoughts on Pirri in one word it would be 'meh'...   Not the end of the world if they added Pirri to the lineup, but I would rather they aimed higher...

Pirri reminds me of Yak. Talented but streaky. Often looks like he doesn't care.

That said he signed with the Rags @ 1.1 x 1 last year. If we got him @ 0.875 like Yak it's a low cost/possible high return.

 

You guys are talking me into thinking Jusi Jokinen @ the right price is a good option.

************************************************************************************************************

I was just reading Niedereiter filled for arbitration. Granlund & Foligno have 1 day left but can also file. This might back the Wild into a corner as they want to keep all 3 (especially Nino) with all 3 having a case for serious money. I'm hoping meeting their prices forces the Wild to put 1 of Coyle or Zucker on the market.

[cross16]

 

Be interesting to see what Ferland does. He is the type that presents a potentially troublesome arb case. 

[The_People1]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

 

Be interesting to see what Ferland does. He is the type that presents a potentially troublesome arb case. 

 

Yes it's a tricky number.  His stats don't justify big money.  15 goals and 25-points career high.  Was given some ice time on the top line but produced sporadically.  Injury prone.  Yet, fights and provides toughness.  

 

I want to give him a two year deal at $1.25-mil-per.  He probably wants closer to $2-mil-per in anticipation of playing more top line minutes this coming season.  

[JTech780]

26 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Yes it's a tricky number.  His stats don't justify big money.  15 goals and 25-points career high.  Was given some ice time on the top line but produced sporadically.  Injury prone.  Yet, fights and provides toughness.  

 

I want to give him a two year deal at $1.25-mil-per.  He probably wants closer to $2-mil-per in anticipation of playing more top line minutes this coming season.  

 

My guess is that he looks at Foligno ($2.25m) or Roussel ($2m) as comparables.

[cross16]

28 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Yes it's a tricky number.  His stats don't justify big money.  15 goals and 25-points career high.  Was given some ice time on the top line but produced sporadically.  Injury prone.  Yet, fights and provides toughness.  

 

I want to give him a two year deal at $1.25-mil-per.  He probably wants closer to $2-mil-per in anticipation of playing more top line minutes this coming season.  

 

Term is likely whats going to matter for Ferland. Salary wise, he should be in the 1.5 to 2 million range if you look at comps like Tom Wilson, Donskoi, Melker Karlsson and Kassian. Once you go 3 years and buy a UFA year I think that probably pushes it to 2.25. 

 

So if you want to lower the salary could do a 1 year deal for probably around 1.5. 3 year deal I think you are looking at around 2.25 which i'm comfortable with. I have a hard time seeing him ask for more than 2.5 and if so I think you'd have to second guess before signing that. 

[The_People1]

12 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

 

My guess is that he looks at Foligno ($2.25m) or Roussel ($2m) as comparables.

 

8 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

Term is likely whats going to matter for Ferland. Salary wise, he should be in the 1.5 to 2 million range if you look at comps like Tom Wilson, Donskoi, Melker Karlsson and Kassian. Once you go 3 years and buy a UFA year I think that probably pushes it to 2.25. 

 

So if you want to lower the salary could do a 1 year deal for probably around 1.5. 3 year deal I think you are looking at around 2.25 which i'm comfortable with. I have a hard time seeing him ask for more than 2.5 and if so I think you'd have to second guess before signing that. 

 

I just feel like anything over $2-mil a year and we revisit Lance Bouma all over again.  If Foo, Pribyl, or even Brouwer step up onto the first line, then Ferland drops to 3rd line LW and points are going to be tough to come by.

 

Ferland can easily fall into a 10 goal scorer for the next 3 years.

[cross16]

1 minute ago, The_People1 said:

 

 

I just feel like anything over $2-mil a year and we revisit Lance Bouma all over again.  If Foo, Pribyl, or even Brouwer step up onto the first line, then Ferland drops to 3rd line LW and points are going to be tough to come by.

 

Ferland can easily fall into a 10 goal scorer for the next 3 years.

 

Which is fair but even 3rd line 10 goal scorers make around 2 million now. See Kasian, Donskoi, tom Wilson etc. Prices have gone up for that role so unless you draft someone I think you need to be prepared to pay your quality 3rd liners 1.75 to 2.25 million.

 

The different for me is Bouma's production really came out of nowhere. Didn't score in junior, didn't score in the A and really had 1 good stretch. With Ferland he's flashed potetnially earlier in his career that makes you feel he is capable of this so i'm more comfortable extending him than I was Bouma. 

[MAC331]

17 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

Which is fair but even 3rd line 10 goal scorers make around 2 million now. See Kasian, Donskoi, tom Wilson etc. Prices have gone up for that role so unless you draft someone I think you need to be prepared to pay your quality 3rd liners 1.75 to 2.25 million.

 

The different for me is Bouma's production really came out of nowhere. Didn't score in junior, didn't score in the A and really had 1 good stretch. With Ferland he's flashed potetnially earlier in his career that makes you feel he is capable of this so i'm more comfortable extending him than I was Bouma. 

I would go a couple more show me seasons at the 1.75M per season number. I believe there is talent there my concern with Ferland is concussion related longer term.

[cross16]

3 hours ago, JTech780 said:

So our defense should be even better than it was last year, I believe the goaltending is much improved. The one area that Treliving hasn't made much of an adjustment to is the forwards. 5v5 scoring was an issue for this team last year that's not a doubt. I do however think we have the ability to improve that with the guys that are here already. Quite honestly the fact that both Monahan and Gaudreau finished with less than 200 shots is unacceptable, those guys need to shot more. Dougie was our leading shooter last year with 222 shots, Frolik was next with 202 shots, as good as those two are they shouldn't be the leading shooters on the team. 

 

This team at times gets to caught up in looking for the perfect shot instead of just getting pucks to the net, I think if GG can stress the need to shoot more right from the start of camp this team can become a much better 5v5 scoring team.

 

This is the reason I don't agree that the answers are already here, Gaudreau and Monahan didn't see big drop offs in their game. yes I do know they started slow and Johnny got hurt and that had an impact, but if you look at their 5 on 5 stats from 15-16 to 16-17 you would like to see a drop off that indicates an off year but you don't. Shots/60 was close (actually went up) and they saw only small drops in shooting % of less than 4%. That's less than 5 goals each per year and they still finished over the avg shooting percentage so I don't think its reasonable to suggest a return to 13/14% is a given. Not to mention their 5 on 5 shot totals were really good last year, top 5 in the league, so what is going to allow them to get even better than that?

 

Ferland had a pretty high shooting % so can he maintain it? Bennett struggled and you'd like to see a bounce back there and perhaps Tkachuk can improve on his but is a sophomore slump just as likely? So i see some possibilities that I could be wrong and they can be a good 5 on 5 team but I think most of it relies on overly optimistic probabilities. That's why I think a scorer is bigger need than most give it credit for. 

 

 

[JA_Boomer]

4 hours ago, JTech780 said:

So our defense should be even better than it was last year, I believe the goaltending is much improved. The one area that Treliving hasn't made much of an adjustment to is the forwards. 5v5 scoring was an issue for this team last year that's not a doubt. I do however think we have the ability to improve that with the guys that are here already. Quite honestly the fact that both Monahan and Gaudreau finished with less than 200 shots is unacceptable, those guys need to shot more. Dougie was our leading shooter last year with 222 shots, Frolik was next with 202 shots, as good as those two are they shouldn't be the leading shooters on the team. 

 

This team at times gets to caught up in looking for the perfect shot instead of just getting pucks to the net, I think if GG can stress the need to shoot more right from the start of camp this team can become a much better 5v5 scoring team.

 

How many shot ATTEMPTS did Monahan have? He just needs to hit the net more...

[Thebrewcrew]

Here's a quick little Wild roster I attempted on capfriendly. This 23 man roster currently sits around 1.2 mill over the cap. 

Key signings I made:

Granlund 6.75x6 this is the same cap hit as his countrymate Koivu. I think of Granlund as a franchise player and I think he comes in at anywhere between 6 and 7 mill on a long term deal.

Niedereitter 5x5 this may be a bit of an overpayment but he is approaching UFA status and now is the time to lock him up long term if you are MIN

Foligno 2.85x2 a slight raise for Foligno, however he may come in at closer to 3.

 

I'm sure there are way the Wild could work around the cap for this season. I did some experimenting, I signed Granlund for 6 and Nino for 4.5, that allows MIN to have a full NHL roster of 23 men, however it leaves only around 15k in cap space. This coming offseason will be a busy one for MIN too, Koivu, Zucker and Dumba are all on expiring contracts. I know many will say "well yeah but Koivu won't get 6.75 again", a week ago I would have been in the same boat but look at what Marleau and Thornton who are both 3 years older than Koivu just signed for. The only expiring contracts they have are Quincy at 1.25 and Stewart at 1.1.

 

I think it is inevitable that MIN is gonna need to trade a really good forward given their contract situation this coming offseason. When I look at MIN's prospect pool, I don't see a lot of strength at RHD or G. I think minimum it would require Gillies and Andersson to interest MIN.

 

Thanks for taking the time to read

 

[Flyerfan52]

1 hour ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Here's a quick little Wild roster I attempted on capfriendly. This 23 man roster currently sits around 1.2 mill over the cap. 

Key signings I made:

Granlund 6.75x6 this is the same cap hit as his countrymate Koivu. I think of Granlund as a franchise player and I think he comes in at anywhere between 6 and 7 mill on a long term deal.

Niedereitter 5x5 this may be a bit of an overpayment but he is approaching UFA status and now is the time to lock him up long term if you are MIN

Foligno 2.85x2 a slight raise for Foligno, however he may come in at closer to 3.

 

I'm sure there are way the Wild could work around the cap for this season. I did some experimenting, I signed Granlund for 6 and Nino for 4.5, that allows MIN to have a full NHL roster of 23 men, however it leaves only around 15k in cap space. This coming offseason will be a busy one for MIN too, Koivu, Zucker and Dumba are all on expiring contracts. I know many will say "well yeah but Koivu won't get 6.75 again", a week ago I would have been in the same boat but look at what Marleau and Thornton who are both 3 years older than Koivu just signed for. The only expiring contracts they have are Quincy at 1.25 and Stewart at 1.1.

 

I think it is inevitable that MIN is gonna need to trade a really good forward given their contract situation this coming offseason. When I look at MIN's prospect pool, I don't see a lot of strength at RHD or G. I think minimum it would require Gillies and Andersson to interest MIN.

 

Thanks for taking the time to read

 

You put some work into that & I have no problem with your guesses as to the raises for Nino, Granlund & Foligno. You deserve the "like".

I'm pretty sure they don't want that steep a dropoff from the top 4 D nor that unproven a b/u with Dubnyck so agree they need to move a forward.

Minny also sees the value in a bit of cap space @ the TD which adds to the need.

 

I'm hoping BT holds off a bit trying to add that RW we speak about. The better FAs are gone but a bit of patience could see us land Coyle or Zucker.

Heck, I'd retain salary on Brouwer (1-1.5) to an eastern team to recoup a 2nd to have a decent chip for bargaining.

[travel_dude]

18 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

Be interesting to see what Ferland does. He is the type that presents a potentially troublesome arb case. 

 

Read a translated story that said Ferland's agent is looking for 4 years.  Implied that the Flames wanted a shorter term.

Should learn soon enough if he files for arbitration.

 

EDIT - He did file for arbitration.  AT least it opens up another buyout window, should the Flames require one.

[cross16]

Jesper Fast of the Rangers just re signed on a 3 year deal with an AAV of 1.85 and I think is a pretty close comp to Ferland. Ferland scored more last year, but other than that production rates pretty similar and a similar contract design as well.

 

Think Ferland's value is crystallizing in that 1.8 to 2 mill range on a multi year deal.