Goaltending

[sak22]

On 7/9/2019 at 1:44 PM, Cowtownguy said:

I really liked Hiller. I mean, he was absolutely amazing in his younger years. I watched that guy stand on his head for several years. Then, it was like all of the talent in him just vanished. He really seemed to want it and fought to be better, he just couldn't swing it. The same process appears to be hitting Smith. Again, he had some really good years in him, but I think he is finished. Even playing for Edmonton I would like to see him excel, but I doubt it will happen. I am not sure he can ever really be a successful #2 goalie. That is a positive comment on his competitive spirit.

 

I do think you nailed it with Talbot. Edmonton seriously pooched him out playing game after game without rest. I think that dude played more in 2017 than Kipper often did each year, and few will measure up to that performance level. I remember in a 2017 interview, he claimed that more games played helped him perform better. I thought that he was just parroting what the brass was saying, and that no goalie could sustain that work load. He was a lamb about to be sacrificed by the old boys club. Voila, they did exactly what I, and I suspect many of us, thought they would. They ruined a solid goalie in order to cover up other inadequacies of the team. 

 

Smith will be a good addition to Edmonton if they use him sparingly, and he is as much of a mentor than anything. Who knows, he might turn into a good goalie coach. I like our chances with Talbot being the goalie than Smith at this point. 

I think Hiller eventually just lost the game between his ears.  How many times in a row can you start a playoff run as a starter and lose out before your confidence is completely shot.  I think its often lost how good Hiller was in 14-15 season because of how the playoffs unfolded and the next season.  I'd say easily the best season since Kipper followed by the worst in recent memory.  I think Elliott was the same situation, got on fire and then poof his old demons return.  Smith had jitters to start last year for sure, but IMO was always a very average goalie at best, basically an up and down career with one real good season I don't think he lost his confidence (I find him a bit on the overconfident side) but I think age and injuries have caught up to his marginal abilities.  I do question if Talbot has also lost the game upstairs.

[jjgallow]

I liked Hiller, but he was old, I know we always say on here that goalies are best when they're old.  But sheesh...not sure about that.

 

We tell ourselves a log of things on here lol

 

Talbot is also old.    "not by goalie standards" is the arguement but sometimes it feels like it's just not by Flames standards.

 

here's a kid that deserves a camp invite:   https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/126321/ludovic-waeber

 

A few of these every year, mostly because they're not 7 feet tall, or maybe just developed a bit later.  In this case both.

 

Young enough that he could move up several levels still.  I'd like to see some invites in this age range rather than the 26 year minimum age we seem to be stuck on

[jjgallow]

 

Always a few of these kids.     Sometimes, like this one....they just happen to play in an adult-oriented league and never really get scouted.   He even has the height.

 

imho the difference between DEL2 and DEL  (for goalies, that is) is not great.     lesser offense, lesser defence equals balanced scoring chances.

 

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/118495/leon-hungerecker

[travel_dude]

17 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

Always a few of these kids.     Sometimes, like this one....they just happen to play in an adult-oriented league and never really get scouted.   He even has the height.

 

imho the difference between DEL2 and DEL  (for goalies, that is) is not great.     lesser offense, lesser defence equals balanced scoring chances.

 

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/118495/leon-hungerecker

 

I am sure they have scouted DEL, if not DEL2....

But at the DEL2 level, he facing the scoring prowess of guys like Dustin Sylvester (remember him in Abby?).

I'm wondering why you suggest this guy.  Rookie of the year?

We gave a contract to a guy that has faced tougher competition, who may actually be able to handle the NHL level at some point.

 

As far as signing this kid, what can we offer him?

Is there enough reason for him to make his way over here?

I'm assuming they could offer a 2 year ELC, but he would make 70k in the AHL.

 

Maybe we should be looking at Sorokin, as a player already in NA, who looked pretty good in past seasons.

Long term, they have Hotlby and Copely, plus they just signed Vanacek who had a better season and playoffs.

 

[jjgallow]

9 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

I am sure they have scouted DEL, if not DEL2....

But at the DEL2 level, he facing the scoring prowess of guys like Dustin Sylvester (remember him in Abby?).

I'm wondering why you suggest this guy.  Rookie of the year?

We gave a contract to a guy that has faced tougher competition, who may actually be able to handle the NHL level at some point.

 

As far as signing this kid, what can we offer him?

Is there enough reason for him to make his way over here?

I'm assuming they could offer a 2 year ELC, but he would make 70k in the AHL.

 

Maybe we should be looking at Sorokin, as a player already in NA, who looked pretty good in past seasons.

Long term, they have Hotlby and Copely, plus they just signed Vanacek who had a better season and playoffs.

 

 

Yeah,

 

I'm actually tempted to take it back, I may have misfired there.

 

The reasoning, though, is:

 

1.  He's a full 3 years younger, and taller.

 

2.  so, you're comparing Zagidulin's year where he struggled in the VHL with .907, compared to Leon's .925 in DEL2, with more height.

 

3.  Direction.   Leon's shown 4 or 5 successive years of improvement, most importantly improvement over the last 2.  Zagidulin, on the other hand, has, if we're being nice, plateaued in the KHL.  If we're being honest, has declined.

 

Honestly I was reaching a little bit with Leon.  But Zagidulin is also a reach.   We are bringing these guys over too late.   he's 23, he'll be 24 next year before any chance of time in the NHL,   26 before we consider him NHL ready, and, most likely, as a filler.

 

 

Maybe a better example:  https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/126321/ludovic-waeber

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

Yeah,

 

I'm actually tempted to take it back, I may have misfired there.

 

The reasoning, though, is:

 

1.  He's a full 3 years younger, and taller.

 

2.  so, you're comparing Zagidulin's year where he struggled in the VHL with .907, compared to Leon's .925 in DEL2, with more height.

 

3.  Direction.   Leon's shown 4 or 5 successive years of improvement, most importantly improvement over the last 2.  Zagidulin, on the other hand, has, if we're being nice, plateaued in the KHL.  If we're being honest, has declined.

 

Honestly I was reaching a little bit with Leon.  But Zagidulin is also a reach.   We are bringing these guys over too late.   he's 23, he'll be 24 next year before any chance of time in the NHL,   26 before we consider him NHL ready, and, most likely, as a filler.

 

 

Maybe a better example:  https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/126321/ludovic-waeber

 

I get it, but there's only so much space.

Don't have a book on Zag, so I don't know whether he can be a NHL goalie or not.

But the timeline is probably a bit earlier than 26.

Should get a good idea of him this year in NA.

He's not going to be in Kansas.  He didn't come over for that.

 

But we'll see if he's anything to write home about.

Keep him away from JS long enough....

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

Keep him away from JS long enough....

 

never long enough.....lol

 

I understand on the space thing.  I guess, when it comes to goalies, I feel like, maybe we should have acquired more, and given them more chances, but less time.

 

I feel we sat on a lot of dead weight for too long without ever giving them an opportunity.  Ie., training camp invite.  

 

But anyway

[rickross]

Rittich resigned 2 yrs for $5.5M, $2.75 AAV per year. I like it! Still a reasonable price and term. Will be interesting to see who’s on the move out...

[Thebrewcrew]

31 minutes ago, rickross said:

Rittich resigned 2 yrs for $5.5M, $2.75 AAV per year. I like it! Still a reasonable price and term. Will be interesting to see who’s on the move out...

I like the deal as it puts both Rittich and Talbot on equal footing. I fully expect brig guys to have an equal shot at #1. With our buyout window opening I’d expect we see a Stone buyout, and a trade to free up space

[travel_dude]

33 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

I like the deal as it puts both Rittich and Talbot on equal footing. I fully expect brig guys to have an equal shot at #1. With our buyout window opening I’d expect we see a Stone buyout, and a trade to free up space

 

Even with the buyout and demotion of Gollis, we have 7.5m to sign both Tkachuk and Mangiapane.

The Neal trade did very little to solve the cap problem, yet it was the biggest move of the summer so far.

I'm okay with the price paid to two goalies, which is less than a lot of teams.

I'm also okay with Bennett's deal.

That leaves Brodie, Janko, Czarnik, and Frolik as the only players that could be moved for a savings or even an upgrade.

Czarnik and Janko by themselves do not get you cap savings unless you trade for picks.

Even then, you still need to replace the player.

[Davis1891]

12 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Even with the buyout and demotion of Gollis, we have 7.5m to sign both Tkachuk and Mangiapane.

The Neal trade did very little to solve the cap problem, yet it was the biggest move of the summer so far.

I'm okay with the price paid to two goalies, which is less than a lot of teams.

I'm also okay with Bennett's deal.

That leaves Brodie, Janko, Czarnik, and Frolik as the only players that could be moved for a savings or even an upgrade.

Czarnik and Janko by themselves do not get you cap savings unless you trade for picks.

Even then, you still need to replace the player.

It’ll be interesting to see what Treliving has planned for this situation. He can be unpredictable sometimes

[ABC923]

22 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Even with the buyout and demotion of Gollis, we have 7.5m to sign both Tkachuk and Mangiapane.

The Neal trade did very little to solve the cap problem, yet it was the biggest move of the summer so far.

I'm okay with the price paid to two goalies, which is less than a lot of teams.

I'm also okay with Bennett's deal.

That leaves Brodie, Janko, Czarnik, and Frolik as the only players that could be moved for a savings or even an upgrade.

Czarnik and Janko by themselves do not get you cap savings unless you trade for picks.

Even then, you still need to replace the player.

I think we have a bit more room, since we can also demote Quinne (who is counted on capfriendly).  But we will still have to shed salary unless Tkachuk signs a 2-3 year bridge deal around 5 million per.

[jjgallow]

25 minutes ago, Davis1891 said:

It’ll be interesting to see what Treliving has planned for this situation. He can be unpredictable sometimes

 

Nawww....

[Cowtownguy]

3 hours ago, rickross said:

Rittich resigned 2 yrs for $5.5M, $2.75 AAV per year. I like it! Still a reasonable price and term. Will be interesting to see who’s on the move out...

From a GM and fan point of view, it is a decent contract. From Rittich's perspective, I wonder if he finds it a little short on term. I suppose the way it is set up, he is in the driver's seat. 

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, Cowtownguy said:

From a GM and fan point of view, it is a decent contract. From Rittich's perspective, I wonder if he finds it a little short on term. I suppose the way it is set up, he is in the driver's seat. 

 

Well I know this will be a relief to many.

 

I will have to go on record with the opinion that signing a goalie with a .911 on what was one of last season's most dominant regular season teams, and that showed rapid decline at the end of the season (whether it be injury or harder matchups or other teams getting his number), is probably not going to go down as Calgary's best signing.

 

It has the potential to be an ok signing and the risk of being an absolutely aweful one.

 

My biggest concern is not the money but the minutes.  That could be used on a greater rising talent with the same performance even earlier in their career (also for less money).

[travel_dude]

10 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Well I know this will be a relief to many.

 

I will have to go on record with the opinion that signing a goalie with a .911 on what was one of last season's most dominant regular season teams, and that showed rapid decline at the end of the season (whether it be injury or harder matchups or other teams getting his number), is probably not going to go down as Calgary's best signing.

 

It has the potential to be an ok signing and the risk of being an absolutely aweful one.

 

My biggest concern is not the money but the minutes.  That could be used on a greater rising talent with the same performance even earlier in their career (also for less money).

 

It was pretty plain to see the injury impact.  Unfortunately, he was basically benched to give Smith time to prepare for the playoffs.

To be honest, the overall SA% is nothing to write home about, but his win% is.

At 5v5, Rittich was .929, equal to the like of Valievskiy. 

And Rittich had a better win record when he was letting in more goals.

 

My relief is that we have moved on from Smith.

I can;t understate the importance of that.

Simplify the role of the goalie to stopping pucks and not the absurd passing to center ice and our D will be fine.

Less time spent defending and more time with controlled breakouts.

 

Personally, I think the money is a bit high for the term, but whatever.

We aren't paying 4.5m for an old KHL goalie with one season of NHL experience.

And we aren't hoping that Gillies can be a NHL backup able to play 30+ games.

My bigger concern is supporting the growth of Parsons and Zag.

[robrob74]

5 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

Well I know this will be a relief to many.

 

I will have to go on record with the opinion that signing a goalie with a .911 on what was one of last season's most dominant regular season teams, and that showed rapid decline at the end of the season (whether it be injury or harder matchups or other teams getting his number), is probably not going to go down as Calgary's best signing.

 

It has the potential to be an ok signing and the risk of being an absolutely aweful one.

 

My biggest concern is not the money but the minutes.  That could be used on a greater rising talent with the same performance even earlier in their career (also for less money).

 

This coming from someone high on Ortio. Ortio was a nothing compared to Rittich, and Ortio is as good as Gillies will ever be as well.

 

my thinking is more that they kept forcing Smith out and ruining Rittich’s rhythm. 

[jjgallow]

19 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

This coming from someone high on Ortio. Ortio was a nothing compared to Rittich, and Ortio is as good as Gillies will ever be as well.

 

my thinking is more that they kept forcing Smith out and ruining Rittich’s rhythm. 

 

dunno man.  I'll never win that one.

 

but guess who played more games than any other KHL goalie last season?    Ortio did really well on a very struggling team.

 

Can't have been "that" bad, and young goalies do tend to do better after leaving this organization.

 

When Ortio was two years younger than Ritttich, he was above 900 on the Flames, and we are talking about a team that was truly struggling in all ways at that time.

 

Again I won't win this one, other than, we are not good at development here.    And we turn on goalies fast too.  We'll do the same with David real quick, so he'll need to be good fast.

[robrob74]

13 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

dunno man.  I'll never win that one.

 

but guess who played more games than any other KHL goalie last season?    Ortio did really well on a very struggling team.

 

Can't have been "that" bad, and young goalies do tend to do better after leaving this organization.

 

When Ortio was two years younger than Ritttich, he was above 900 on the Flames, and we are talking about a team that was truly struggling in all ways at that time.

 

Again I won't win this one, other than, we are not good at development here.    And we turn on goalies fast too.  We'll do the same with David real quick, so he'll need to be good fast.

 

 

I think Rittich was great last year. His biggest problem was being up by 2 or 3 goals and then letting in a stinker With less than a minute left. I think he did that about three times, maybe more. 

 

Of all goalies we have had had the last few years, my eye test says he was the most technically sound. 

 

I think all all of the goalies had bad goals against. 

 

I shouldn't  have snapped like that. I liked or had hopes for Ortio as well. You’re right, he could still get a PTO with a team in the next few years. 

[travel_dude]

3 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

dunno man.  I'll never win that one.

 

but guess who played more games than any other KHL goalie last season?    Ortio did really well on a very struggling team.

 

Can't have been "that" bad, and young goalies do tend to do better after leaving this organization.

 

When Ortio was two years younger than Ritttich, he was above 900 on the Flames, and we are talking about a team that was truly struggling in all ways at that time.

 

Again I won't win this one, other than, we are not good at development here.    And we turn on goalies fast too.  We'll do the same with David real quick, so he'll need to be good fast.

 

He hasn;t been much of a story since leaving here.

And he wasn;t much when he was here.

Who are all these goalies you speak of that we gav up on.

I'm talkng about post Kipper, because it's only really relevant.

Gillies?

It's not like we gave up on him.

More like he hasn;t sone much to provide confidence that he can be a backup.

 

Rittich hasn't done anything to lose fans.

Even a bad game has people talking about the D letting him down.

 

 

[jjgallow]

14 hours ago, travel_dude said:

Who are all these goalies you speak of that we gav up on.

 

Only the ones that we drafted and tried to develop.

[travel_dude]

50 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Only the ones that we drafted and tried to develop.

 

Is it nature or nurture?

I don't see the missed opportunity as much as the missed draft picks.

Sure, our goalie coaches haven't helped, but does it come down to being able to recognize talent?

 

[jjgallow]

48 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Is it nature or nurture?

 

Statistically speaking the most likely answer is both.  It's like asking, are we this bad at drafting or are we this bad at developing?

 

I think both must have missed the mark.   But development is the one that concerns me the most.

 

And, yeah, you're right.  Maybe we're bad at recognising talent.  Maybe we should just bring in a young proven talent and pay the price.   But until we solve our development even this does not make sense.   So it becomes the ultimate bottleneck.

[travel_dude]

15 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Statistically speaking the most likely answer is both.  It's like asking, are we this bad at drafting or are we this bad at developing?

 

I think both must have missed the mark.   But development is the one that concerns me the most.

 

And, yeah, you're right.  Maybe we're bad at recognising talent.  Maybe we should just bring in a young proven talent and pay the price.   But until we solve our development even this does not make sense.   So it becomes the ultimate bottleneck.

 

The chances of picking up a young player in trade that has a good track record is slim.

Missed out on Anderssen because ANA wouldn;t deal with us.

Missed out on Bishop, though I'm not even sure that is a top talent.

Missed out on Grubauer for lack of picks available.

Same for Raanta.

Not sure we had the pieces at the time to deal anyway.

 

 

[robrob74]

51 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

The chances of picking up a young player in trade that has a good track record is slim.

Missed out on Anderssen because ANA wouldn;t deal with us.

Missed out on Bishop, though I'm not even sure that is a top talent.

Missed out on Grubauer for lack of picks available.

Same for Raanta.

Not sure we had the pieces at the time to deal anyway.

 

 

 

The only goalie in that group seems to be Anderson that I would be willing to chance. 

 

I wonder if we have scouts that specialize in technical side of goaltending. It almost shouldn’t matter the quality of team in front of a goalie. A technically sound goalie will still let in 5 goals but can stay true to the form. 

 

I hate to repeat myself but when Kipper was in SJ he lost a game 5-3 in Vancouver but I still loved how he battled and played his game. I told my dad, “that’s the goalie Calgary needs!” 

 

This is why I don’t think numbers/stats should tell the goalies’ story and probably why a goalie goes through 2-3 team’s systems before settling in and starting. 

 

it was a perfect storm  trading for him. He was behind two guys and didn’t get the chance.