2024 NHL draft - A New Hope

[conundrumed]

6 minutes ago, cberg said:

Flames need to obtain a second high 1st.

Again, they don't. They have a healthy amount of selections this year, and next year, likely the same. That, in and of itself, is a big change and welcome relief. Home wasn't built in a day.

Every draft the convo focuses on, "get more top 15 picks". I do not agree in the slightest. The cost is too high. No one seems to care. Trade Andersson for a 12th oa. Why? He's a bonafide top 4 NHL dman. Why would you throw that away for a hyped-out prospect that may never touch an NHL game?

It's all just hype. And kind of Satoshi Nakamototing on the guys that are already bleeding for you.

Maybe that's a bit of a harsh take, but it's pretty true.

That stuff is a really Satoshi Nakamototy reflection of how a franchise would treat its established vets.

[travel_dude]

13 minutes ago, cberg said:

If only based on a name, the choice would be easy, but he’s right in the mix.  My view is we need to get two top12 1sts.  Figure it out.  If, and that’s a big if Tij turns out like his dad and Flames passed on him… that would be hard to take.

 

Every year there is a shoulda-woulda.  

[cberg]

2 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Again, they don't. They have a healthy amount of selections this year, and next year, likely the same. That, in and of itself, is a big change and welcome relief. Home wasn't built in a day.

Every draft the convo focuses on, "get more top 15 picks". I do not agree in the slightest. The cost is too high. No one seems to care. Trade Andersson for a 12th oa. Why? He's a bonafide top 4 NHL dman. Why would you throw that away for a hyped-out prospect that may never touch an NHL game?

It's all just hype. And kind of Satoshi Nakamototing on the guys that are already bleeding for you.

Maybe that's a bit of a harsh take, but it's pretty true.

That stuff is a really Satoshi Nakamototy reflection of how a franchise would treat its established vets.

It’s not just hype, there is likely some great players in this top15, better than Anderson, but yes there will also be some duds.  The consideration isn’t just listen to the hype, but look at the Flames situation and the high likelihood their next success window will not be for 2-3 years hence.  Anderson is UFA in 2 more years, and in Fall 2026 he will be just shy of 30years old looking for his last big contract. In addition he’s had some struggles this year, perhaps injury related, we shall see.  I really like Anderson, he’s been a great story and success and leader for the Flames and potentially could continue so for the next decade.  Flames have to seriously consider what they want to do and if it is not long term when and how do they move forward.  I get the “disrespecting” players who are sacrificing and giving it all,  but it doesn’t mean they are guaranteed a future either.  If the players make it clear they want to stay probably management would be accommodating.  The last couple of years many players have said differently.

[conundrumed]

6 minutes ago, sak22 said:

maybe they add Smith by the end of the year

And Musty. Although I'm currently following/cheering for Sudbury to shred the OHL playoffs.

He'd likely report to the A, but SJ is light on talent and their season's done. Really high potential going on with him.

SJ really had a nice draft last year, add in Haltunnen and taking a risk with Cagnoni.

[The_People1]

19 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Again, they don't. They have a healthy amount of selections this year, and next year, likely the same. That, in and of itself, is a big change and welcome relief. Home wasn't built in a day.

Every draft the convo focuses on, "get more top 15 picks". I do not agree in the slightest. The cost is too high. No one seems to care. Trade Andersson for a 12th oa. Why? He's a bonafide top 4 NHL dman. Why would you throw that away for a hyped-out prospect that may never touch an NHL game?

It's all just hype. And kind of Satoshi Nakamototing on the guys that are already bleeding for you.

Maybe that's a bit of a harsh take, but it's pretty true.

That stuff is a really Satoshi Nakamototy reflection of how a franchise would treat its established vets.

 

There should be no untouchables on this team.  Players should understand the team has under performed due to their performance and will undergo an overhaul.  There's no disrespect or whatever.  Just mutual understanding.

 

Personally I would move Weegar before Andersson but Andersson has the higher trade value.  

[The_People1]

25 minutes ago, cberg said:

If only based on a name, the choice would be easy, but he’s right in the mix.  My view is we need to get two top12 1sts.  Figure it out.  If, and that’s a big if Tij turns out like his dad and Flames passed on him… that would be hard to take.

 

I would still prioritize a D before Tij... But if we had a second first round pick in the 10-13 range and Tij is there, then we take Tij.  

[sak22]

1 minute ago, The_People1 said:

 

There should be no untouchables on this team.  Players should understand the team has under performed due to their performance and will undergo an overhaul.  There's no disrespect or whatever.  Just mutual understanding.

 

Personally I would move Weegar before Andersson but Andersson has the higher trade value.  

I don't think anyone is untouchable, I do think players are overrated now.  Worthless for our future but other teams will view them as gold.  Don't get it.  Please provide the last defenseman that was going on 28 and showing year over year decline and returned a top 15 pick.

[travel_dude]

2 minutes ago, cberg said:

It’s not just hype, there is likely some great players in this top15, better than Anderson, but yes there will also be some duds.  The consideration isn’t just listen to the hype, but look at the Flames situation and the high likelihood their next success window will not be for 2-3 years hence.  Anderson is UFA in 2 more years, and in Fall 2026 he will be just shy of 30years old looking for his last big contract. In addition he’s had some struggles this year, perhaps injury related, we shall see.  I really like Anderson, he’s been a great story and success and leader for the Flames and potentially could continue so for the next decade.  Flames have to seriously consider what they want to do and if it is not long term when and how do they move forward.  I get the “disrespecting” players who are sacrificing and giving it all,  but it doesn’t mean they are guaranteed a future either.  If the players make it clear they want to stay probably management would be accommodating.  The last couple of years many players have said differently.

 

To put it in perspective, Weegar is on year 1 of his 8 year deal.

He just turned 30 and has one season more of production to equal Ras.

Neither of their windows is 2-3 years, unlike Markstrom.

I know that's not what you suggested, but the point is we can or do have them locked up.

 

The last 5 players we traded were not Flames drafted, just UFA's or trades we received.

Only Tanev was an age vs re-signing cost.

The rest didn't want to be here.

 

It's a business, so trading to get better is a fact.

Trading to get a single draft pick doesn't always make sense.

Not when that player has a long time that they can remain productive.

[The_People1]

5 minutes ago, sak22 said:

I don't think anyone is untouchable, I do think players are overrated now.  Worthless for our future but other teams will view them as gold.  Don't get it.  Please provide the last defenseman that was going on 28 and showing year over year decline and returned a top 15 pick.

 

It varies to the extreme depending on which fan you talk to.

 

Andersson is both too good to be traded yet, not good enough to entice a team to give up a top 15 pick for him.  Which is it?

 

Personally, I believe the league sees Andersson as a 2/3 on their depth chart but that RHS RD is worth a lot.  Hard to find a RD in UFA.  Not many teams are willing to trade a top 3 RD unless you give up a top 15 pick.  The price is the price.

[conundrumed]

3 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

There should be no untouchables on this team.  Players should understand the team has under performed due to their performance and will undergo an overhaul.  There's no disrespect or whatever.  Just mutual understanding.

 

Personally I would move Weegar before Andersson but Andersson has the higher trade value.  

And if that is how you want to conduct your business, don't be surprised to see heavy trade protections included in every decent UFA signing. They'll just go elsewhere. Plus, you're now an even larger name on no-trade lists.

Every action has an equal reaction. Nothing happens in a vacuum.

[The_People1]

Just now, conundrumed said:

And if that is how you want to conduct your business, don't be surprised to see heavy trade protections included in every decent UFA signing. They'll just go elsewhere. Plus, you're now an even larger name on no-trade lists.

Every action has an equal reaction. Nothing happens in a vacuum.

 

It's already the case.  NTC/NMC to every UFA, if they even want to come here in the first place.  Calgary is a small market team and will have to dish out NTC/NMC anyways to compete in the UFA market.

[sak22]

Just now, The_People1 said:

 

It's varies to the extreme depending on which fan you talk to.

 

Andersson is both too good to be traded yet, not good enough to entice a team to give up a top 15 pick for him.  Which is it?

 

Personally, I believe the league sees Andersson as a 2/3 on their depth chart but that RHS RD is worth a lot.  Hard to find a RD in UFA.  Not many teams are willing to trade a top 3 RD unless you give up a top 15 pick.  The price is the price.

I asked for examples not your theories.  

[conundrumed]

1 minute ago, The_People1 said:

 

It's already the case.  NTC/NMC to every UFA, if they even want to come here in the first place.  Calgary is a small market team and will have to dish out NTC/NMC anyways to compete in the UFA market.

So would you not want to change that identity for the better? Or make it worse? Not care?

[The_People1]

6 minutes ago, sak22 said:

I asked for examples not your theories.  

 

Don't think there has been and D trades on the draft floor since Dougie Hamilton.  Can't think of any others at the top of my head.

[sak22]

Just now, The_People1 said:

 

Don't think there has been and D trades on the draft floor since Dougie Hamilton.  Can't think of any others at the top of my head.

And please tell me you know the difference between Dougie Hamilton vs. Weegar/Andersson?

[The_People1]

4 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

So would you not want to change that identity for the better? Or make it worse? Not care?

 

Sometimes the franchise location just wasn't dealt a good hand and we have to make the most of it.  No matter what, we will have to offer NTC/NMC to compete for UFAs.  Don't let this come into play because it's not really a thing.

[The_People1]

1 minute ago, sak22 said:

And please tell me you know the difference between Dougie Hamilton vs. Weegar/Andersson?

 

Of course Hamilton carried more trade value at the time.  I'm suggesting we package Andersson/Weegar with the Canuck's first to move up 12-15 spots.  It's not the same thing.

[cross16]

1 hour ago, The_People1 said:

 

But Shane Wright was also #1 oa that wasn't.

Shane Wright was never billed, at least by anyone credible, as a franchise center though. 
Cellebrini is. Those guys almost never slide 

[sak22]

1 minute ago, The_People1 said:

 

Of course Hamilton carried more trade value at the time.  I'm suggesting we package Andersson/Weegar with the Canuck's first to move up 12-15 spots.  It's not the same thing.

No it's dumber IMO, them on their own should get multiple assets, if you can get 3 assets for each vs. move 2 for 1 when the one doesn't necessarily provide high guarantees of generating a player of which you are giving up.   12-15 is a low star rate.

[The_People1]

5 minutes ago, sak22 said:

No it's dumber IMO, them on their own should get multiple assets, if you can get 3 assets for each vs. move 2 for 1 when the one doesn't necessarily provide high guarantees of generating a player of which you are giving up.   12-15 is a low star rate.

 

Drafting top 15 has higher chance of success than drafting later in the first round.

 

 

It's worth it to trade up especially in this draft where there is a drop off after the top 20 or so.

[sak22]

Just now, The_People1 said:

 

Drafting top 15 has higher chance of success than drafting later in the first round.

 

 

It's worth it to trade up especially in this draft where there is a drop off after the top 20 or so.

When the standard is 99 Games yes, more 1st rounders will get looks easier and have slightly longer leashes.  But draft analysis is stupid to begin with, there is always pre-draft prognostication that shouldn't be treated as gospel, I can guarantee there will be busts in 1-15 and gems found between 16-224, I'd rather have more chances to find the gems than go all in for the potential bust.  They're 18 still room to grow, I see all the time with baseball players who get drafted high out of high school opt for college instead and have their future draft stock plummet in college, or several top high school football recruits fail at the college level, hockey has always been the same, don't drink the kool-aid that the draft experts are giving, if they were really experts they would be employed by teams.

 

Always remember the year Boston picked 13th, 14th and 15th and picked 2 busts and an okay player in Debrusk while Barzal, Chabot and Connor went the next 3 picks.  

[The_People1]

5 minutes ago, sak22 said:

When the standard is 99 Games yes, more 1st rounders will get looks easier and have slightly longer leashes.  But draft analysis is stupid to begin with, there is always pre-draft prognostication that shouldn't be treated as gospel, I can guarantee there will be busts in 1-15 and gems found between 16-224, I'd rather have more chances to find the gems than go all in for the potential bust.  They're 18 still room to grow, I see all the time with baseball players who get drafted high out of high school opt for college instead and have their future draft stock plummet in college, or several top high school football recruits fail at the college level, hockey has always been the same, don't drink the kool-aid that the draft experts are giving, if they were really experts they would be employed by teams.

 

Always remember the year Boston picked 13th, 14th and 15th and picked 2 busts and an okay player in Debrusk while Barzal, Chabot and Connor went the next 3 picks.  

 

The philosophy of acquiring quantity over quality is sound in a lot of cases so there's no debate there.

 

It's just, the Flames are at a point in their retool where elite talent is missing.  Take the chance to draft higher.  We need more bullets to land more star players which usually comes in the top 15.  Tij looks pretty dynamic and has heart in his game.  Worth Andersson+late first.  Flames aren't and shouldn't be trying to turn this thing around in one summer anyways.  Rebuild it properly over 3/4 years.

[sak22]

2 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

The philosophy of acquiring quantity over quality is sound in a lot of cases so there's no debate there.

 

It's just, the Flames are at a point in their retool where elite talent is missing.  Take the chance to draft higher.  We need more bullets to land more star players which usually comes in the top 15.  Tij looks pretty dynamic and has heart in his game.  Worth Andersson+late first.  Flames aren't and shouldn't be trying to turn this thing around in one summer anyways.  Rebuild it properly over 3/4 years.

How many truly elite guys come from 12-15?

Just using a decade of drafting from 2005-2015

2005: M. Staal, Zagrapan, Pokuluk, O'Marra ( 1 solid player, 2 never played and one only played 30 games)

2006: Little, Grabner, Tlusty, Helenius (No elites there)

2007: McDonagh, Eller, Shattenkirk, Plante (No elites there)

2008: Teubert, Myers, Boychuk, Karlsson (1 elite)

2009:  de Haan, Kassian, Kulikov, Holland (nothing to get excited about there)

2010: Fowler, Gormley, Schwartz, Forbort (A couple of really good, but nothing elite)

2011: Ryan Murphy, Baertschi, Oleksiak, JT Miller (I'd count Miller, but also need to note he hit his stride late 20's and on team #3)

2012: Grigorenko, Faska, Girgensons, Ceci (nothing too exciting there, remember the hype around Grigorenko though)

2013: Domi, Morrissey, Wennberg, Pulock (I don't think I'd put any on the elite class)

2014: Perlini, Vrana, Honka, Larkin (A Larkin type would be worth excitement, but not elite)

2015: Gurianov, Zboril, Debrusk, Senyshyn (Dreadful considering the strength of that draft) (also Debrusk and Iginla had very similar seasons only Iginla had Andrew Cristall and Debrusk had Colby Cave).

 

I could add in the 2016-2019 drafts as well, but a couple of names not worth typing and really IMO only one elite being Charlie McAvoy.  Sorry but I just don't see 2024 as being the trend breaker, sure a lot of really good players come in that range but if elite is the expectation and they are supposed to be cornerstones of the new age of Flames hockey I think disappointment is on the way.

[The_People1]

2 minutes ago, sak22 said:

How many truly elite guys come from 12-15?

Just using a decade of drafting from 2005-2015

2005: M. Staal, Zagrapan, Pokuluk, O'Marra ( 1 solid player, 2 never played and one only played 30 games)

2006: Little, Grabner, Tlusty, Helenius (No elites there)

2007: McDonagh, Eller, Shattenkirk, Plante (No elites there)

2008: Teubert, Myers, Boychuk, Karlsson (1 elite)

2009:  de Haan, Kassian, Kulikov, Holland (nothing to get excited about there)

2010: Fowler, Gormley, Schwartz, Forbort (A couple of really good, but nothing elite)

2011: Ryan Murphy, Baertschi, Oleksiak, JT Miller (I'd count Miller, but also need to note he hit his stride late 20's and on team #3)

2012: Grigorenko, Faska, Girgensons, Ceci (nothing too exciting there, remember the hype around Grigorenko though)

2013: Domi, Morrissey, Wennberg, Pulock (I don't think I'd put any on the elite class)

2014: Perlini, Vrana, Honka, Larkin (A Larkin type would be worth excitement, but not elite)

2015: Gurianov, Zboril, Debrusk, Senyshyn (Dreadful considering the strength of that draft) (also Debrusk and Iginla had very similar seasons only Iginla had Andrew Cristall and Debrusk had Colby Cave).

 

I could add in the 2016-2019 drafts as well, but a couple of names not worth typing and really IMO only one elite being Charlie McAvoy.  Sorry but I just don't see 2024 as being the trend breaker, sure a lot of really good players come in that range but if elite is the expectation and they are supposed to be cornerstones of the new age of Flames hockey I think disappointment is on the way.

 

And how many elites come from picks 25-27 where the Canucks are going to draft?  I'm guessing even worse than 12-15.

 

I don't put Andersson in the elite category myself.  Not sure if you do.  We're not trading Giordano in his prime or anything.

 

It really comes down to trading for known pieces which are medium quality for a swing at a possible elite player.  The Flames need to swing for the fences.  Flames already have good bottom 6 guys.  Pelletier, Pospisil, etc.  But those elite talents are lacking.

[cross16]

52 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

The philosophy of acquiring quantity over quality is sound in a lot of cases so there's no debate there.

 

It's just, the Flames are at a point in their retool where elite talent is missing.  Take the chance to draft higher.  We need more bullets to land more star players which usually comes in the top 15.  Tij looks pretty dynamic and has heart in his game.  Worth Andersson+late first.  Flames aren't and shouldn't be trying to turn this thing around in one summer anyways.  Rebuild it properly over 3/4 years.

I agree but this helps the quantity argument more. Trying to move up and limiting your ammo is a more quick turn around move.