Samuel Honzek 2023 1st Round Pick

[Thebrewcrew]

The newest member of the Flames. Could be the captain of the Vancouver Giants this season.

 

 

[jjgallow]

 

Captain Honz....I like it.

 

Excited for this pick, congrats Honzek.

 

 

Figure he'll most likely do another year of junior ?

 

I always forget the rules on this stuff.   I bet he'd be okay in the AHL too but I know there's rules about it

[travel_dude]

5 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Captain Honz....I like it.

 

Excited for this pick, congrats Honzek.

 

 

Figure he'll most likely do another year of junior ?

 

I always forget the rules on this stuff.   I bet he'd be okay in the AHL too but I know there's rules about it

 

He can play in the upcoming WJC for one year.

But that doesn't answer your question about the AHL.

Drafted from a CDN team, he has to be 20 in the season he plays in the AHL.

So, one year junior and one AHL.

[cross16]

Yup Junior next year (where it sounds like he will be the captain) and then the option would exists for CHL or AHL the following year. A cool unique them about him is if they sign him to an eLC soon then he can play in the AHL and still have his contract slide. 

 

Coolest thing about this pick is the Flames comp for him is Mikko Rantanen..... that would be something

[cross16]

Megan Chayka (private analytics company) does sytlistic profiles for prospects based on their analytically profile. While it looks like she has Honzek rated a little lower (22) compares he compares to Timo Meir. That'll play....

 

Also look who made it to 35 on the list...

 

 

[jjgallow]

51 minutes ago, cross16 said:

Megan Chayka (private analytics company) does sytlistic profiles for prospects based on their analytically profile. While it looks like she has Honzek rated a little lower (22) compares he compares to Timo Meir. That'll play....

 

Also look who made it to 35 on the list...

 

 

 

I love this.  gonna follow them.

 

Crude stuff that I do in spare time had some similarities.

 

My "bpa" draft order for the Flames pick was identical:   Perreault, then Pelikka.    I also had all of the D ranked a lot higher, much like this does.   D seem to consistently drop in drafts due to GMs not being able to wait.   True again this year, with the singular exception of Reinbacher.  We probably were not immune to this but I like our 2nd pick a lot.

 

I didn't get my wish, but there was nothing I could do with the data (at least in spare time) that would have accounted for Honzek's injury.  And my guess is their model doesn't either.   I really don't know how you would factor that in  without either doing a pre-injury calculation, a post-injury calculation, and a doctor's report lol.

 

His pre-injury ranking for me would have been #6, just under Smith.   This in no way accounted for size, which might have put him above Smith.  It also didn't account for Smith's movies. 

 

Only the Flames know what they know.   

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

I love this.  gonna follow them.

 

Crude stuff that I do in spare time had some similarities.

 

My "bpa" draft order for the Flames pick was identical:   Perreault, then Pelikka.    I also had all of the D ranked a lot higher, much like this does.   D seem to consistently drop in drafts due to GMs not being able to wait.   True again this year, with the singular exception of Reinbacher.  We probably were not immune to this but I like our 2nd pick a lot.

 

I didn't get my wish, but there was nothing I could do with the data (at least in spare time) that would have accounted for Honzek's injury.  And my guess is their model doesn't either.   I really don't know how you would factor that in  without either doing a pre-injury calculation, a post-injury calculation, and a doctor's report lol.

 

His pre-injury ranking for me would have been #6, just under Smith.   This in no way accounted for size, which might have put him above Smith.  It also didn't account for Smith's movies. 

 

Only the Flames know what they know.   

 

I think we have to wait the year to see what post injury really looks like.  That is fine.  He was never going to be a Flames this season.

We seem to like drafting kids from that team.  And the BCHL by the looks of it.  BCHL not the worst place to look.

[zima]

Was htere a drafty you guys thought we could have drafted instead of Honz? or even any of our other drafts I'm not big on the kids I have enough trouble trying to keep track of our Flames players

[travel_dude]

1 minute ago, zima said:

Was htere a drafty you guys thought we could have drafted instead of Honz? or even any of our other drafts I'm not big on the kids I have enough trouble trying to keep track of our Flames players

 

Two years down the road, a 6th rounder could come out of nowhere.  5 years down the road, there could be a superstar in the draft we didn't look at.  It's hard to get a handle on how good some of the guys from Europe will become.  Ever hear of Tanner Jeanneau before 2022?  Kaprisov went in the 5th round in 2015.

[zima]

By the way I hope we give Phillips a chance at a 2 way contract for at least 1 yr he deserve our respected and. He has done nothing but excel in the A and 1 lousy game in the NHL is not a fair assessment he needs at least ( games at the beginning and perhaps a bunch in the full season being a Calgary kid and all. I know it's a business but for me it's a Calgary team and I would at least give him more of a 1 game chance I bet he would surprise us all.

[jjgallow]

30 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

I think we have to wait the year to see what post injury really looks like.  That is fine.  He was never going to be a Flames this season.

We seem to like drafting kids from that team.  And the BCHL by the looks of it.  BCHL not the worst place to look.

 

You could  be right.

 

Remember when we drafted Sam Bennett.....shortly after the draft he magically had more medical info and surgery was done.    Not that I want such a scenario, but the truth of the matter came quick. 

 

I don't want a surgery announcement.    On the other hand, to me the worst case scenario is "I dunno ".

 

"I dunno " basically means they kind of went off the board.   

 

Best case scenario is the injury requires a full offseason to fully recover from, and when the season starts he tears a  hole in the space time continuum.    That's the "we find out soon " scenario .

 

But you're right,  even if that doesn't happen the story is far from over.

[jjgallow]

19 minutes ago, zima said:

Was htere a drafty you guys thought we could have drafted instead of Honz? or even any of our other drafts I'm not big on the kids I have enough trouble trying to keep track of our Flames players

 

The answer is yes.   By wide consensus. Roughly 8 players ahead of him. 

 

He was not a conventional bpa.   He was a gamble.

 

He was a top 10 pick, got injured, dropped 15 spots.

 

The gamble is that he recovers from his injury and regains his form.   If he does that, we win this draft.

 

 

 

[zima]

I was afread of that so now we let four teams team a better player and had Conny blow smoke up or bottom half thanx Conny you have started with a great line of smoke blowing and we are going down the tubs for the next 5-7 yrs. So my next question is which pick does MTL get next draft or 2025 is it ours of FP ?

[jjgallow]

15 minutes ago, zima said:

I was afread of that so now we let four teams team a better player and had Conny blow smoke up or bottom half thanx Conny you have started with a great line of smoke blowing and we are going down the tubs for the next 5-7 yrs. So my next question is which pick does MTL get next draft or 2025 is it ours of FP ?

 

You might be right,  

 

But.  Conroy spent the whole year scouting these guys.

 

There is a very good chance that Conroy knows Honzek will recover.   If that is the case, and we hope it is, then it was a great pick.

 

 

[zima]

I don't understand why we would pass up on high end kids for a possible or maybe he will recover and become more than a or better than kids higher in the rankings with the lack of quality players we have now why would he take a chance on a player that might never be the player he was before he got hurt. I don't think it is a smart way to start.

[travel_dude]

5 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

You might be right,  

 

But.  Conroy spent the whole year scouting these guys.

 

There is a very good chance that Conroy knows Honzek will recover.   If that is the case, and we hope it is, then it was a great pick.

 

 

 

So, he was back Feb 12th.  He was a P/gp player to finish out the season.

Here's an article on TSN.

 

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/mark-masters-samuel-honzek-refused-to-let-injury-derail-first-round-dream-1.1977705

[travel_dude]

1 minute ago, zima said:

I don't understand why we would pass up on high end kids for a possible or maybe he will recover and become more than a or better than kids higher in the rankings with the lack of quality players we have now why would he take a chance on a player that might never be the player he was before he got hurt. I don't think it is a smart way to start.

 

All players are risks.  Even Bedard, who plans to be in the NHL this year, will risk it in his first year.

Big defensemen don't let up on you because you draft 1st overall.

He will get the same attention Gaudreau saw from big guys.

But Johnny was far more used to playing with big guys.

 

Anyway, no point in worrying about his injury.  He is healed.

At that age, cuts heal fast, so he is probably just as strong as he ever was.

[jjgallow]

4 minutes ago, zima said:

I don't understand why we would pass up on high end kids for a possible or maybe he will recover and become more than a or better than kids higher in the rankings with the lack of quality players we have now why would he take a chance on a player that might never be the player he was before he got hurt. I don't think it is a smart way to start.

 

Only Conroy knows how sure he is.    If he is guessing,  then I agree with you.

 

But I don't think he's guessing.   I think he knows.

[jjgallow]

8 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

So, he was back Feb 12th.  He was a P/gp player to finish out the season.

Here's an article on TSN.

 

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/mark-masters-samuel-honzek-refused-to-let-injury-derail-first-round-dream-1.1977705

 

PPG is not enough to hold top 10 as you know.

 

But yeah.    Does he have more recovery in him?  He sure could.

[travel_dude]

56 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

PPG is not enough to hold top 10 as you know.

 

But yeah.    Does he have more recovery in him?  He sure could.

 

The first 12 games is rehab, getting back up to speed.

 

Look at Ryan Leonard's stats last year.

Or Benson, Yager or Danielson.

Only one of those had a higher p/gp for the season and it was .25 more per game.

[jjgallow]

1 minute ago, travel_dude said:

 

The first 12 games is rehab, getting back up to speed.

 

Look at Ryan Leonard's stats last year.

Or Benson, Yager or Danielson.

Only one of those had a higher p/gp for the season and it was .25 more per game.

 

I'm totally on board with you, the margin between  top 10 and top 30 is slim.  A very fine line. 

 

So I understand why @conundrumed sometimes loses his mind and acts like all the picks are the same and we can pick in any spot we want cause it's all just a big guess.

 

And then the next day comes back with very strong opinions on placement 😅

 

That line is thin.  We're basically looking for players who might be 5% better than their peers, and that might be enough to make the NHL.  10% might be enough to be an NHL star.

 

So an injury, which can change performance by say 30%, is a BIG, big factor in the draft.

 

First 12 games is hard to say.  You might be right.   But also consider that Everyone is getting back to speed those first 12 games, and he will be a year older.   So, if his leg is now fully recovered, which I suspect Conroy may have known heading into the draft, then ....he COULD blow the top off in the first 12 games.  And then continue to improve from there.  We'll see.

[travel_dude]

5 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

I'm totally on board with you, the margin between  top 10 and top 30 is slim.  A very fine line. 

 

So I understand why @conundrumed sometimes loses his mind and acts like all the picks are the same and we can pick in any spot we want cause it's all just a big guess.

 

And then the next day comes back with very strong opinions on placement 😅

 

That line is thin.  We're basically looking for players who might be 5% better than their peers, and that might be enough to make the NHL.  10% might be enough to be an NHL star.

 

So an injury, which can change performance by say 30%, is a BIG, big factor in the draft.

 

First 12 games is hard to say.  You might be right.   But also consider that Everyone is getting back to speed those first 12 games, and he will be a year older.   So, if his leg is now fully recovered, which I suspect Conroy may have known heading into the draft, then ....he COULD blow the top off in the first 12 games.  And then continue to improve from there.  We'll see.

 

One would assume they saw his combine performance.  I think he could do a pull up.

Combine would be a good indicator of where his leg is (attached to his head?).

[jjgallow]

3 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

One would assume they saw his combine performance.  I think he could do a pull up.

Combine would be a good indicator of where his leg is (attached to his head?).

 

This sounds much better than "Conroy spoke to him and his parents pretty much every week" lol.

[Heartbreaker]

6 hours ago, cross16 said:

Megan Chayka (private analytics company) does sytlistic profiles for prospects based on their analytically profile. While it looks like she has Honzek rated a little lower (22) compares he compares to Timo Meir. That'll play....

 

Also look who made it to 35 on the list...

 

Ha ha ha! Total click bait!

You won't even BELIEVE who was number 35!

 

Love.

[conundrumed]

12 hours ago, Heartbreaker said:

 

Ha ha ha! Total click bait!

You won't even BELIEVE who was number 35!

 

Love.

I was disappointed that it wasn't a slide show!