2023 NHL Draft - the 4-horse race.

[jjgallow]

Right, let's get started

 

At time of writing, the Flames do actually have a percentage chance at the Lotto pick.   So at this early stage, some focus on that.

 

Rare is a draft where a widely touted generational player is available (Bedard), and yet it's still a four-horse race.

Such is the strength of this draft.

 

Conor Bedard:   His ppg is currently just a bit behind that of McDavid's but close tnough to be worth comparing.

                           Size-wise, however, he's more Crosby-like.  So that's probably a better person to compare stats to.  And on this front Bedard is further behind still.
                           
                            In all honesty Bedard is shaping up to be just one gear below Crosby/McDavid.   Which is nothing to scoff at, and he could surprise.

 

Adam Fantilli:   An NCAA player blowing away everyone at an age where it's tough to find comparables.  Also has the size and strength.

                         Widely considered to be Bedard's #1 challenger.   Very difficult to find a comparable, the best I can come up with is Jack Eichel.
                            Against Eichel,   imho Eichel comes out on top but they are in fact comparable and that says something

 

Leo Carlsson:   A full--on threat in the SHL.   Has already shown to be an impact player in professional hockey.

                            Scouts very divided here, he ranks anywhere from #2 to #19.   
                             I find this often happens when players go pro too quickly because draft scouts simply aren't there.
                                    Say what you want about the #2 ranking, but the #19 rankings can only be seen as pure ignorance.

 

Matvey Mitchkov:   We need more data here.    Many feel he is actually the best player in the draft, and many don't.

                                       Either way, any team that drafts him gets the reward of picking up a player on a long-term KHL contract.

 

 

I will throw in my own sleeper here, as defencemen are repeatedly under-rated in the first round:
          Mikhail Gulyayev.   Stacks up well offensively to any defenseman ever drafted, first overall or otherwise.
                                           Literally Any.
                                           He's also a touch on the small side, and whoever drafts him gets to deal with how drafting players out of Russia works right now.

 

 

 

So...

 

Who do You think the Flames will draft when they win the Lotto this year?

 

And later rounds?

 

 

[conundrumed]

The Flames won’t be a lottery team so this is kinda pointless.

Will Bedard be a full-time NHLer next year I think is a fair question.

I’m going to say either of no or injured ala McDaffyd.

 

[jjgallow]

36 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

The Flames won’t be a lottery team so this is kinda pointless.

Will Bedard be a full-time NHLer next year I think is a fair question.

I’m going to say either of no or injured ala McDaffyd.

 

 

I chose not to play that video.  Did I make a mistake?

 

Wishful thinking aside, this year we are saying what players do when they're no in their contract year.  But are older.

 

Some really great goaltending could potentially keep us out of the lotto but as it stands now, we are a lotto team and I'm not seeing any reason for that to change.

 

I suspect multiple players will be full timers next year, out of this 4-horse race and maybe one or two outside of it as well.

 

But that's not because I think they should.  It's because the teams that draft them tend to be a little daft.

 

[travel_dude]

2 hours ago, jjgallow said:

Some really great goaltending could potentially keep us out of the lotto but as it stands now, we are a lotto team and I'm not seeing any reason for that to change.

 

 

We are an underperforming team that is 8th in the West at the Christmas break.

We would have to get significantly worse goaltending and worse scoring results to even remotely be considered a lotto team.

And really that's just a shot at worse than 12th in the West.

[conundrumed]

11 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

I chose not to play that video.  Did I make a mistake?

 

Only if you're unfamiliar with the British sketch comedy series Little Britain USA or are allergic to laughter.

The League of Gentlemen is another great comedy series.

Comedy...aka Bedard playing D.

[Thebrewcrew]

Bedard will be more similar to Patrick Kane than McDavid or Crosby. 

 

Fantili probably goes 1st overall if he was eligible in 2022. Easy 2nd overall pick.

 

Michkov will be he WC. Very talented, but he's not coming to NA for a while. He's going to be picked by a team with a new GM/GM with job security. Chuck Fletcher doesn't have the luxury of waiting for Michkov. Mike Grier or Pat Verbeek do.

[jjgallow]

14 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Bedard will be more similar to Patrick Kane than McDavid or Crosby. 

 

Fantili probably goes 1st overall if he was eligible in 2022. Easy 2nd overall pick.

 

Michkov will be he WC. Very talented, but he's not coming to NA for a while. He's going to be picked by a team with a new GM/GM with job security. Chuck Fletcher doesn't have the luxury of waiting for Michkov. Mike Grier or Pat Verbeek do.

 

Thank you, pretty insightful.

 

Size-wise, I might suggest Bedard is closer to Crosby than Kane.   Kane is just truly small, Bedard lacks the height but he has some strength to him.

            Gotta agree, he's not Crosby though.   At the same time I've seen him do things Kane never did.   

           Kind of hoping he is better than Kane but I think we can kind of rule out Crosby at this point yes.

 

You didn't mention Carlsson, I'll assume you're also of the opinion he'll be in a race for 4th with Michkov, depending on who the GM is.

 

[Thebrewcrew]

13 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

Thank you, pretty insightful.

 

Size-wise, I might suggest Bedard is closer to Crosby than Kane.   Kane is just truly small, Bedard lacks the height but he has some strength to him.

            Gotta agree, he's not Crosby though.   At the same time I've seen him do things Kane never did.   

           Kind of hoping he is better than Kane but I think we can kind of rule out Crosby at this point yes.

 

You didn't mention Carlsson, I'll assume you're also of the opinion he'll be in a race for 4th with Michkov, depending on who the GM is.

 

I think Carlsson will be in the mix for 3rd overall with Michkov. Maybe even 2nd overall if a team falls in love with him.

 

Stylistically, I think Bedard will be more like Kane. That said, I think he's more a winger than C at the NHL level. 

[cross16]

I'm not saying he will be as good but honestly I like Bedard more than I liked McDavid at this age. Bedard's anticipation, deception and ability to use both his pass and his shot (and his ability to shoot) are a combo I've honestly never seen at this age. McDavid is more physically gifted and Sid more powerful so I think both of those guys had games that will translate more seamless to the NHL, but Bedard is really special. 

 

It's a tough comparison because I really don't think we've seen a prospect like this, style wise, in a very long time. I didn't watch Gretzky until he was later in his career and I hate the idea of labelling a 17 years old kid as the next Gretzky but style wise I think that's the way your going. I get the comparison style while to Kane but IMO that's a floor for Bedard. He's got more to offer than Kane IMO. 

[jjgallow]

8 minutes ago, cross16 said:

I'm not saying he will be as good but honestly I like Bedard more than I liked McDavid at this age. Bedard's anticipation, deception and ability to use both his pass and his shot (and his ability to shoot) are a combo I've honestly never seen at this age. McDavid is more physically gifted and Sid more powerful so I think both of those guys had games that will translate more seamless to the NHL, but Bedard is really special. 

 

It's a tough comparison because I really don't think we've seen a prospect like this, style wise, in a very long time. I didn't watch Gretzky until he was later in his career and I hate the idea of labelling a 17 years old kid as the next Gretzky but style wise I think that's the way your going. I get the comparison style while to Kane but IMO that's a floor for Bedard. He's got more to offer than Kane IMO. 

 

I have to agree.   It's only one game, but I have to admit my opinions were changed in that game.

 

I do believe size and strength plays a role though.

 

So, a guy who is 5'10, has to be better than McDavid in junior if he wants to be compared to McDavid in the NHL.

   From what we saw last night, that might be happening.

 

On the other hand, the Crosby comparison, Crosby was very very similar size and strength.  But I think I'd need at least 10 of these games in a row to start comparing Bedard's junior season to Crosby's.   From this game, yeah.   But would need a lot more of it.

 

@Thebrewcrew  I gotta say I at first really liked your Kane comparison but after this game it's a bit more unclear.   He's clearly got things Kane didn't have.

 

 

 

[Addicted]

I have had the opportunity to watch Bedard live a few times, and what I think he has that I have never seen before in a player is the absolute deception in his shot.  Seen it several times where he is skating down the ice with the puck and everyone in the rink is thinking pass, or that there is no option of a shot, and bang top shelf off of his back foot.  Wrong stride, puck in the complete wrong position on his stick, no indication whatsoever of a shot.  I've seen several goalies stand there as the puck snaps over their shoulder and not even flinch.

 

THAT sets him apart by a mile.

[sak22]

Awesome a thread dedicated to who gets to play with this guy.

[jjgallow]

Still in play

[travel_dude]

33 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

Still in play

We are more in play for the latter part of the top 10

[jjgallow]

41 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

We are more in play for the latter part of the top 10

 

 

True, but, things have changed all the same.  We have the correct (or incorrect) trajectory at this time depending on your perspective.  This is the positive way of looking at it lol.      Maybe we have a strong finish, maybe we don't.

 

Also, one of these guys could drop.   We seem to see that every year too.

 

I think for the first round, a really really critical part of the organization's job is to know what's above them.  It's more work because you have to cover more guys.   But someone can, and usually does drop.  If you're prepared, you win.  Maybe it'll be the Russian.

 

Maybe it'll be the Flames...

[travel_dude]

23 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

 

True, but, things have changed all the same.  We have the correct (or incorrect) trajectory at this time depending on your perspective.  This is the positive way of looking at it lol.      Maybe we have a strong finish, maybe we don't.

 

Also, one of these guys could drop.   We seem to see that every year too.

 

I think for the first round, a really really critical part of the organization's job is to know what's above them.  It's more work because you have to cover more guys.   But someone can, and usually does drop.  If you're prepared, you win.  Maybe it'll be the Russian.

 

Maybe it'll be the Flames...

 

All I can say is I don't want top see us move down.  Up is fine.

Trading to move up in the 2nd or get a 3rd is ok, as long as we have targets in front of us.

 

But first and foremost, whatever drafting we do, I want to know that we have a coaching plan in place.

The present one is more about immediate results, so hands off buddy.

Do I think he's done a good job with prospects?  A resounding no.

Messed up Valimaki and Mackey, even if you feel they weren't NHL ready.

Messed up Ruzicka, even if you feel he didn't pull his weight.

At worst, he was the 10th worst player in a lineup.

Pelletier is being messed up due to not having a clue how to use him.

He fits Kadri like a hole in the head.

The only reason he's in the top 6 is because Lucic was so bad in the top 6.

Yeah, he showed sparks, but he could play anywhere and do that.

 

[jjgallow]

10 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

All I can say is I don't want top see us move down.  Up is fine.

Trading to move up in the 2nd or get a 3rd is ok, as long as we have targets in front of us.

 

But first and foremost, whatever drafting we do, I want to know that we have a coaching plan in place.

The present one is more about immediate results, so hands off buddy.

Do I think he's done a good job with prospects?  A resounding no.

Messed up Valimaki and Mackey, even if you feel they weren't NHL ready.

Messed up Ruzicka, even if you feel he didn't pull his weight.

At worst, he was the 10th worst player in a lineup.

Pelletier is being messed up due to not having a clue how to use him.

He fits Kadri like a hole in the head.

The only reason he's in the top 6 is because Lucic was so bad in the top 6.

Yeah, he showed sparks, but he could play anywhere and do that.

 

 

Absolutely loving this negativity!   

 

But seriously I am loving it because, you know, darkest before dawn and all that.

 

IMHO, anyone we draft will probably not need to worry about Sutter unless they come NHL ready.

 

I'd like to see a GM plan personally.     And some would argue an owner plan, which is impossible, so GM is a nice compromise.  The thing with Sutter, is you Know he's gonna do it this way lol.    the only way he wouldn't, is if you give him no choice in the matter.   Like give him a rebuilding team full of prospects.   I think he could be good.  Not sure he'd agree to it though.  50/50 he would go back to his farm.

[travel_dude]

48 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Absolutely loving this negativity!   

 

But seriously I am loving it because, you know, darkest before dawn and all that.

 

IMHO, anyone we draft will probably not need to worry about Sutter unless they come NHL ready.

 

I'd like to see a GM plan personally.     And some would argue an owner plan, which is impossible, so GM is a nice compromise.  The thing with Sutter, is you Know he's gonna do it this way lol.    the only way he wouldn't, is if you give him no choice in the matter.   Like give him a rebuilding team full of prospects.   I think he could be good.  Not sure he'd agree to it though.  50/50 he would go back to his farm.

 

It doesn't matter how many picks we have, we should be picking where we are or higher.

I have no issue with Pelletier or Coronato.  They were the best when we picked and both are NHL players in future.

 

I am really just negative about the lines (coach), the line usage (coach), and the players not given a sniff (coach).

 

[jjgallow]

4 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

It doesn't matter how many picks we have, we should be picking where we are or higher.

I have no issue with Pelletier or Coronato.  They were the best when we picked and both are NHL players in future.

 

I am really just negative about the lines (coach), the line usage (coach), and the players not given a sniff (coach).

 

 

It is too bad we're not allowed to like your posts, because, if we were,

 

I would for sure like at least one of them every year.  Like this one.

[travel_dude]

2 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

It is too bad we're not allowed to like your posts, because, if we were,

 

I would for sure like at least one of them every year.  Like this one.

 

I must have gone insane for a minute.

BTW, this is the 2nd one in less than a year.

[robrob74]

12 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

All I can say is I don't want top see us move down.  Up is fine.

Trading to move up in the 2nd or get a 3rd is ok, as long as we have targets in front of us.

 

But first and foremost, whatever drafting we do, I want to know that we have a coaching plan in place.

The present one is more about immediate results, so hands off buddy.

Do I think he's done a good job with prospects?  A resounding no.

Messed up Valimaki and Mackey, even if you feel they weren't NHL ready.

Messed up Ruzicka, even if you feel he didn't pull his weight.

At worst, he was the 10th worst player in a lineup.

Pelletier is being messed up due to not having a clue how to use him.

He fits Kadri like a hole in the head.

The only reason he's in the top 6 is because Lucic was so bad in the top 6.

Yeah, he showed sparks, but he could play anywhere and do that.

 

I don't want them to trade down just to gain extra picks. It happens to often. 
 

We see Schneider seems ok and I'd have liked drafting him. I think we moved down and could have had him. He has played 105 NHL games already and Zary has played none...

[travel_dude]

57 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

I don't want them to trade down just to gain extra picks. It happens to often. 
 

We see Schneider seems ok and I'd have liked drafting him. I think we moved down and could have had him. He has played 105 NHL games already and Zary has played none...

 

Well, I'm not convinced we were looking at Schneider.

We would have just taken him.

Let's not forget that Zary was showing a lot in his draft year.

The other thing is we got Poirier and Kuz out of SJ, as well as Francis out of CB.

Obviously we were scoting the Q and WHL.

 

It's hard to tell what happens on the floor.

We may have only had Zary and someone else that got picked, so that means a trade for picks makes some sense.

 

The bigger issue for me is late season runs that mean nothing.

We had the chance of playing meaningful games with wins in key games.

We crapped the bed.  

We don't deservce to be winning now.

You can't play 3/4 of a season at 500 and think that you can flip the switch.

You know we are going to beat the Pacific basement teams.

And win a couple more against teams having an off night.

 

[jjgallow]

On 3/6/2023 at 11:44 PM, travel_dude said:

 

Well, I'm not convinced we were looking at Schneider.

We would have just taken him.

Let's not forget that Zary was showing a lot in his draft year.

The other thing is we got Poirier and Kuz out of SJ, as well as Francis out of CB.

Obviously we were scoting the Q and WHL.

 

It's hard to tell what happens on the floor.

We may have only had Zary and someone else that got picked, so that means a trade for picks makes some sense.

 

The bigger issue for me is late season runs that mean nothing.

We had the chance of playing meaningful games with wins in key games.

We crapped the bed.  

We don't deservce to be winning now.

You can't play 3/4 of a season at 500 and think that you can flip the switch.

You know we are going to beat the Pacific basement teams.

And win a couple more against teams having an off night.

 

 

[jjgallow]

Michkov destroying everything in his path.  How do you compare him to?

 

I vote nobody