JTech780 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 28 minutes ago, cross16 said: I agree with this approach, although my concern level for the Lindhom-Tkachuk line is rising. Been quite a stretch here where both of those guys have basically been non factors at 5 on5, Lindholm in particular. I would make one change and that is swap Mangiapane and Dube. Mangiapane is an elite play driver, and I think Tkachuk and Lindholm can really use that on their line. Dube is struggling to drive play right now, so I think putting him with Backlund and Lucic would really help him. The other thing to consider is that over the last 5 games Tkachuk and Lindholm are getting hurried with below 40% offensive zone starts. I think Ward needs to find a way to get that line more starts in the offensive zone. I am not saying he has to shelter them, but he should get that number closer to 50%. I would have Backlund's line shelter a bit more of the defensive burden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pikey7883 Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, JTech780 said: I would make one change and that is swap Mangiapane and Dube. Mangiapane is an elite play driver, and I think Tkachuk and Lindholm can really use that on their line. Dube is struggling to drive play right now, so I think putting him with Backlund and Lucic would really help him. The other thing to consider is that over the last 5 games Tkachuk and Lindholm are getting hurried with below 40% offensive zone starts. I think Ward needs to find a way to get that line more starts in the offensive zone. I am not saying he has to shelter them, but he should get that number closer to 50%. I would have Backlund's line shelter a bit more of the defensive burden. We have all asked for a more balanced attack, and last night was one of their most complete games. We have all asked for consistency with the lines. I have been very hard on Ward, but whatever happened that finally convinced him to move Bennett up in the lineup (which in turns moves looch up), he has to stick with it. I think you have to lock in those top three lines for the foreseeable future. He can tinker with their zone starts throughout the game depending on whose going and whose not, and keep the fourth line fluent with fresh legs or big bodies, whatever the matchup dictates. ***also gaudreau on the right side 👍*** 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cross16 Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 55 minutes ago, JTech780 said: I would make one change and that is swap Mangiapane and Dube. Mangiapane is an elite play driver, and I think Tkachuk and Lindholm can really use that on their line. Dube is struggling to drive play right now, so I think putting him with Backlund and Lucic would really help him. The other thing to consider is that over the last 5 games Tkachuk and Lindholm are getting hurried with below 40% offensive zone starts. I think Ward needs to find a way to get that line more starts in the offensive zone. I am not saying he has to shelter them, but he should get that number closer to 50%. I would have Backlund's line shelter a bit more of the defensive burden. I see that as the opposite personally. I think it's Dube driving the play on that line and he really isn't getting help. I thought Tkachuk was good against Edm but outside of that he hasn't been great these last 5-6 games. I don't mind LIndholm's game but I find putting him at center is really taking away from his offensive impact. he plays a really conservative game at center and it's the best playmaker. fun fact I uncovered today, Dillon Dube is the 9th in the league in first assist rate at 5 on 5. Small sample size alert but pretty cool I personally think Mang needs to be with Johnny/Mony but I also understand the rationale to keep things as is for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cross16 Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Looking at the Flames centers provides both some optimism but also fear for the future. First off the good. We can forget talking about the demise of Backlund. Up to the top 10 in Corse and expected goals. highest ranking Flames center in the league at 5 on 5 production at #42. The bad? Backlund is the highest ranked points/60 player at 5 on 5 and he is ranked 42. Sean Monahan is just behind him, but for the Flames to not have 1 center in the top 30 in points/60 is concerning. Monahan and Lindholm ranking outside the top 50 is XGF% is quite concerning. Some reason for promise: Lindholm ranks 27th in ICF% and 40th in XGF so there is some reason to believe he can turn it around. My biggest conclusion - while I do like the two way game and attention to detail he is playing with, Monahan is playing no where near the level of a number one center and is a borderline number 2 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pikey7883 Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, cross16 said: Looking at the Flames centers provides both some optimism but also fear for the future. First off the good. We can forget talking about the demise of Backlund. Up to the top 10 in Corse and expected goals. highest ranking Flames center in the league at 5 on 5 production at #42. The bad? Backlund is the highest ranked points/60 player at 5 on 5 and he is ranked 42. Sean Monahan is just behind him, but for the Flames to not have 1 center in the top 30 in points/60 is concerning. Monahan and Lindholm ranking outside the top 50 is XGF% is quite concerning. Some reason for promise: Lindholm ranks 27th in ICF% and 40th in XGF so there is some reason to believe he can turn it around. My biggest conclusion - while I do like the two way game and attention to detail he is playing with, Monahan is playing no where near the level of a number one center and is a borderline number 2 at this point. I have to agree with you and hate to, lol. Backlund has looked as you advertised, and I may have jumped the gun on him. Our depth down the middle as a group is fantastic though, Lindholm is an upgrade on any other Center we have now or in the pipeline, so our 1-2-3 down the middle is very good in no particular order. But your right that we are missing that #1 Center. IF we found that, then Lindy can move back to RW to dominate a top line. Until then we can continue to roll our 2a,2b,2c centers effectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travel_dude Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 hours ago, JTech780 said: I would make one change and that is swap Mangiapane and Dube. Mangiapane is an elite play driver, and I think Tkachuk and Lindholm can really use that on their line. Dube is struggling to drive play right now, so I think putting him with Backlund and Lucic would really help him. The other thing to consider is that over the last 5 games Tkachuk and Lindholm are getting hurried with below 40% offensive zone starts. I think Ward needs to find a way to get that line more starts in the offensive zone. I am not saying he has to shelter them, but he should get that number closer to 50%. I would have Backlund's line shelter a bit more of the defensive burden. 1 hour ago, cross16 said: I see that as the opposite personally. I think it's Dube driving the play on that line and he really isn't getting help. I thought Tkachuk was good against Edm but outside of that he hasn't been great these last 5-6 games. I don't mind LIndholm's game but I find putting him at center is really taking away from his offensive impact. he plays a really conservative game at center and it's the best playmaker. fun fact I uncovered today, Dillon Dube is the 9th in the league in first assist rate at 5 on 5. Small sample size alert but pretty cool I personally think Mang needs to be with Johnny/Mony but I also understand the rationale to keep things as is for a while. Both interesting perspectives. I wonder if the swap of Mangiapane with Dube does anything bad at all. The Backlund line is essentially the line that scored in the playoffs, with Backlund replacing Bennett. Mangiapane joins back up with Tkachuk, so the impact would not be negative. But I do wonder if long term (not suggesting it for Thursday) is the following: Bennett-Lindholm-Tkachuk (or reverse the players) Gaudreau-Monahan-Mangiapane Lucic-Backlund-Dube Bennett needs to fit obviously. It can't be one man against the other team, has to be a line that works. 2nd line has more breakaway speed but has two guys that are good in close. Dube gets Backlund for his good passing and Lucic to give the other team something to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cross16 Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 Could be a sign Gawdin gets a game in the near future. While Froese was good last night his track record isn't fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTech780 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 hours ago, cross16 said: I see that as the opposite personally. I think it's Dube driving the play on that line and he really isn't getting help. I thought Tkachuk was good against Edm but outside of that he hasn't been great these last 5-6 games. I don't mind LIndholm's game but I find putting him at center is really taking away from his offensive impact. he plays a really conservative game at center and it's the best playmaker. fun fact I uncovered today, Dillon Dube is the 9th in the league in first assist rate at 5 on 5. Small sample size alert but pretty cool I personally think Mang needs to be with Johnny/Mony but I also understand the rationale to keep things as is for a while. The Corsi and xGF stats suggest that Dube is pulling that line down a bit. Now I am not suggesting that Dube is a bad player or that he doesn't belong on that line, but if you are going to play Lindholm against the other teams top lines and playing them in defensive situations I am just not sure that Dube currently is the best player to be on that line. I think his game will grow to be better defensively, it's just not there for me right now. The advanced stats suggest that Tkachuk and Lindholm are better when Dube isn't on their line. For me if you put Mangiapane with Tkachuk and Lindholm, that line would rival Marchand-Bergeron-Pasternak as a line. I didn't really like the short sample of Mangiapane with Gaudreau and Monahan, it just felt like that line didn't have much flow, but to be fair I have kind of felt that about everybody that was on that line (Bennett, Leivo, Simon...). I also think that Gaudreau and Monahan need to be sheltered and using Mangiapane in a sheltered role is a bit of a waste, as he is not only the best playing driving forward on the team he is the best playing driving forward in the league to start this season. I would rather see him do more heavy lifting defensively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pikey7883 Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 hours ago, JTech780 said: I would make one change and that is swap Mangiapane and Dube. Mangiapane is an elite play driver, and I think Tkachuk and Lindholm can really use that on their line. Dube is struggling to drive play right now, so I think putting him with Backlund and Lucic would really help him. The other thing to consider is that over the last 5 games Tkachuk and Lindholm are getting hurried with below 40% offensive zone starts. I think Ward needs to find a way to get that line more starts in the offensive zone. I am not saying he has to shelter them, but he should get that number closer to 50%. I would have Backlund's line shelter a bit more of the defensive burden. I know that I said I think they should leave the lines as is, but I can get behind your logic on this one. Chucky-Lindy-Mang (our #1 line, not the perfection line 😉, time to do some heavy lifting) Benny-Money-Johnny (offensive specialist line with favourable zone starts) Lucic-Backs-Dube (a good 2b line to feast on other teams bottom 6, an upgrade to that line with Benny last year) Simon-Froese/Gawdin-Leivo/Nordstrom (has to be an energy line) I also don’t usually comment on d lines, this year because I’m quite happy with all of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travel_dude Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 16 minutes ago, JTech780 said: I didn't really like the short sample of Mangiapane with Gaudreau and Monahan, it just felt like that line didn't have much flow, but to be fair I have kind of felt that about everybody that was on that line (Bennett, Leivo, Simon...). I also think that Gaudreau and Monahan need to be sheltered and using Mangiapane in a sheltered role is a bit of a waste, as he is not only the best playing driving forward on the team he is the best playing driving forward in the league to start this season. I would rather see him do more heavy lifting defensively. Some comments. I don't think a 50% O-zone usage is sheltrered. Ward continues to allow opposing coaches to line match; he just likes to roll lines. We get last change and Monahan faces Statsny how many times? I don't think it matters which line Mangiapane plays on, they will be better. I do think it's more important for Ward to be strategic when he gets last change. For me, the bigger issue is what to do with Bennett. I don't see the fit with Gaudreau; two opposite players. Don't think it makes sense to play him with Lucic. Perhaps playing with Tkachuk might have a better outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flames-fan-in-jets-land Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 The team has played 2 fairly good complete games, sure theres always room for improvement but could we maybe hold off for a while before we start nitpicking with overly specific analytics? Lindy is a team leader in pts with almost 50% of them on 5v5. Johnny and Chucky about the same 5v5% while Monys points are about 66% 5v5. I like the looks of the current lines (I would swap out Nordstrom for Ruzicka/Gawdin if anything) so lets just see if some more time away from the blender makes a difference. The team seems to be playing with some level of confidence for once, why mess with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travel_dude Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 45 minutes ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said: The team has played 2 fairly good complete games, sure theres always room for improvement but could we maybe hold off for a while before we start nitpicking with overly specific analytics? Lindy is a team leader in pts with almost 50% of them on 5v5. Johnny and Chucky about the same 5v5% while Monys points are about 66% 5v5. I like the looks of the current lines (I would swap out Nordstrom for Ruzicka/Gawdin if anything) so lets just see if some more time away from the blender makes a difference. The team seems to be playing with some level of confidence for once, why mess with it? The engine was running fine last night, but there were some sputtering. Need to check the oil. Bad analogy. What I am getting at is that you look at the performance after both wins and losses. Koskinen was not good. Scoring 6 doesn't mean we have the best lines. I was impressed with the gritty win last night. But it was closer than it should have been. We had last change and still were content to have the other coach determine the matchups. Shouldn't fixate on it, but be aware of who they trot out there first. The fact that the scoring came from the bottom 6 and a PP goal should be concerning. No blender required, but you need to look at things and tweak if necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robrob74 Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 hours ago, pikey7883 said: I have to agree with you and hate to, lol. Backlund has looked as you advertised, and I may have jumped the gun on him. Our depth down the middle as a group is fantastic though, Lindholm is an upgrade on any other Center we have now or in the pipeline, so our 1-2-3 down the middle is very good in no particular order. But your right that we are missing that #1 Center. IF we found that, then Lindy can move back to RW to dominate a top line. Until then we can continue to roll our 2a,2b,2c centers effectively. I think he’s been ok for the first handful of games which made it easy to conclude that. He just wasn’t himself to start the season. Since, around 2-3 or maybe 4 games ago he has really looked engaged more and more each game. He called himself out and has responded since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cross16 Posted February 10, 2021 Report Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, flames-fan-in-jets-land said: The team has played 2 fairly good complete games, sure theres always room for improvement but could we maybe hold off for a while before we start nitpicking with overly specific analytics? Lindy is a team leader in pts with almost 50% of them on 5v5. Johnny and Chucky about the same 5v5% while Monys points are about 66% 5v5. I like the looks of the current lines (I would swap out Nordstrom for Ruzicka/Gawdin if anything) so lets just see if some more time away from the blender makes a difference. The team seems to be playing with some level of confidence for once, why mess with it? I agree and am a proponent of leaving things is for a while as I also agree the team has found their game. I just think there are some trends you need to be mindful of and if they continue you'll want to get a head of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robrob74 Posted February 11, 2021 Report Share Posted February 11, 2021 So, Dube looked like one of the players with the motors in last nights win, does that mean he’s dragging them down? numbers will say that they’ve been worse with him, but what about the other players? To me it looks like the other players not pulling their weight in comparison. Maybe we can say Tkachuk and Lindholm are dragging Dube’s numbers? both Lindholm and Tkachuk looked good on the pp though. to me Dube has been skating. Does that mean he’s bad for the line if he’s the only one going or moving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MP5029 Posted February 11, 2021 Report Share Posted February 11, 2021 54 minutes ago, robrob74 said: So, Dube looked like one of the players with the motors in last nights win, does that mean he’s dragging them down? numbers will say that they’ve been worse with him, but what about the other players? To me it looks like the other players not pulling their weight in comparison. Maybe we can say Tkachuk and Lindholm are dragging Dube’s numbers? both Lindholm and Tkachuk looked good on the pp though. to me Dube has been skating. Does that mean he’s bad for the line if he’s the only one going or moving? No what it means is Wars hasn’t figured his players out yet, for example he got lucky with Hanifin and Tanev pairing but he’s trying to force chemistry with Gio and Anderson...it’s just not there and he needs to figure that out..he’s still stuck on the play in round luck Gio and Anderson had...the reality is Valimaki needs to be paired with Anderson ASAP as the top pair and Gio needs to anchor the third pairing. The same thing can be said with this Lindholm at Ctr nonsense...it’s not working...well least not as good as: Gaudreau/Monahan/Lindholm and yes last year we did fall victim to that being the line to shut down and it shuts down the Flames...but if ward would open his eyes a bit and make Bennett Ctr Tachuck with Manji or Dube on the RW then there are two hard lines to shut down with: Gaudreau/Monahan/Lindholm Tachuck/Bennett/Dube (pref) or Manji and then follow it up with: Manji or Dube Backlund/Simon or Levino that’s three solid lines I’m still not 100% on Manji and Dube for line 2 and 3 it kinda depends on who they click with best but in either case they are keys to having 3 solid lines....obviously whoever of Simon and Levino fall to line 4 with Lucic and ryan (or whoever till ryan gets back) but I’m kinda thinking Simon on the 4th and Levino might do well with Manji and Backlund 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robrob74 Posted February 11, 2021 Report Share Posted February 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, MP5029 said: No what it means is Wars hasn’t figured his players out yet, for example he got lucky with Hanifin and Tanev pairing but he’s trying to force chemistry with Gio and Anderson...it’s just not there and he needs to figure that out..he’s still stuck on the play in round luck Gio and Anderson had...the reality is Valimaki needs to be paired with Anderson ASAP as the top pair and Gio needs to anchor the third pairing. The same thing can be said with this Lindholm at Ctr nonsense...it’s not working...well least not as good as: Gaudreau/Monahan/Lindholm and yes last year we did fall victim to that being the line to shut down and it shuts down the Flames...but if ward would open his eyes a bit and make Bennett Ctr Tachuck with Manji or Dube on the RW then there are two hard lines to shut down with: Gaudreau/Monahan/Lindholm Tachuck/Bennett/Dube (pref) or Manji and then follow it up with: Manji or Dube Backlund/Simon or Levino that’s three solid lines I’m still not 100% on Manji and Dube for line 2 and 3 it kinda depends on who they click with best but in either case they are keys to having 3 solid lines....obviously whoever of Simon and Levino fall to line 4 with Lucic and ryan (or whoever till ryan gets back) but I’m kinda thinking Simon on the 4th and Levino might do well with Manji and Backlund I think Bennett is still playing the Monahan and Gaudreau line like he’s the Center on the line. I think it gets himself in their way. That’s why I think it’s not working. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cross16 Posted February 11, 2021 Report Share Posted February 11, 2021 Gio Andersson have actually been really good the last 5 games. Only 1 goal against at 5 on 5. 62% XGF% 56%SCF% 76% HDCF% It took Gio a while but I think he's settled in now. That d core is playing very well right now IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cross16 Posted February 11, 2021 Report Share Posted February 11, 2021 15 hours ago, robrob74 said: So, Dube looked like one of the players with the motors in last nights win, does that mean he’s dragging them down? numbers will say that they’ve been worse with him, but what about the other players? To me it looks like the other players not pulling their weight in comparison. Maybe we can say Tkachuk and Lindholm are dragging Dube’s numbers? both Lindholm and Tkachuk looked good on the pp though. to me Dube has been skating. Does that mean he’s bad for the line if he’s the only one going or moving? I am a big proponent of analytics and data but i also think we need to be weary of sample size. My eyes tell me that Dube has been a key player in transition for that line and is responsible for most of their offensive opportunities and I just think we need a bigger sample size to see which way it goes. JTech is right about the numbers but for me the gap is small enough that you give it time as Dube gets back into game speed/shape after a short injury. Keep everything together for a few games and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTech780 Posted February 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2021 To me this is probably the biggest reason why the Lindholm line is appearing to struggle. I think Ward needs to find a way to get that line into more offensive situations. Also for the record, I am absolutely fine with Dube remaining on that line, if it was me I would swap him with Mangiapane, but it isn't a huge deal one way or another. If Mangiapane is going to stay with Backlund, then that line has to start doing more of the heavy lifting defensively, this freeing up Lindholm's line to get more offensive zone time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cross16 Posted February 11, 2021 Report Share Posted February 11, 2021 Agreed it does add more context. Not sure if Backlund's early season struggle were a culprit in this but with the way he is playing now it's definitely time to balance this out better. Also not a great look for Monahan getting plum assignments like that and not exactly thriving with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travel_dude Posted February 11, 2021 Report Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, cross16 said: Agreed it does add more context. Not sure if Backlund's early season struggle were a culprit in this but with the way he is playing now it's definitely time to balance this out better. Also not a great look for Monahan getting plum assignments like that and not exactly thriving with them. I haven't looked through every face off stat for Monahan, but if he's starting in the O-zone against the other team's best FO dude, then he's likely going to lose possession. He faced Statsny in the last game (even though we had last change) and barely won a draw. Also, the downside to not having Lindholm is having to take all the draws. I'm not excusing him, just pointing out what does not show up in that chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTech780 Posted February 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2021 https://jhanhky.substack.com/p/what-makes-certain-nhlers-sneaky Not sure where to put this, but this a great article about what makes certain puck moving defensemen so good, and why certain skilled players have low Corsi stats. I think you can put Gaudreau in the same category as Kane and Suzuki. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cross16 Posted February 11, 2021 Report Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 hours ago, travel_dude said: I haven't looked through every face off stat for Monahan, but if he's starting in the O-zone against the other team's best FO dude, then he's likely going to lose possession. He faced Statsny in the last game (even though we had last change) and barely won a draw. Also, the downside to not having Lindholm is having to take all the draws. I'm not excusing him, just pointing out what does not show up in that chart. He's at 47.3% according to this site https://puckbase.com/stats/faceoff-percentage?player=sean-monahan&zone=off. But that doesn't really carry much impact when it comes to thinks like shots, chances, expected goals etc. To be fair it's not like Monahan is performing poorly, i just think you want more given the type of assignments he is getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travel_dude Posted February 11, 2021 Report Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 hours ago, cross16 said: He's at 47.3% according to this site https://puckbase.com/stats/faceoff-percentage?player=sean-monahan&zone=off. But that doesn't really carry much impact when it comes to thinks like shots, chances, expected goals etc. To be fair it's not like Monahan is performing poorly, i just think you want more given the type of assignments he is getting. 47.3 in the O-zone is worrisome. He struggles against some team but has a better time with others. I do agree about wasted chances with a FO loss. Needs to be better or use someone that wins them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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