So Where do we go from here? Analysis & Predictions

[MAC331]

21 minutes ago, cross16 said:

I"m probably going to be alone on this one. but outside of Cameron i'm not firing anyone. I respect people have their own opinions and i respect i'm going to get shredded for this but here is what i'm most tired of. This isn't one season this is 15 years of the organization doing the same thing. For 15 years now the Flames have answered every disappointing season with "ok let's fire the coach or GM". You've gone through 6 coaches in 15 years so give me a break if you are trying to tell me this is a coaching issue. For 15 years now the flames have made moves that look good on paper, asked the team to step up and meet expectations and for 15 years they have failed every team. 6 different coaches haven't been able to get this team to take the next step and we want to put this on coaching? Either the Flames are one of the worst franchises in the history of sport for finding coaches or your problems exist hire up.

 

Time to look higher up here. IMO, since the Darryl Sutter days the flames are always a year to 2 years behind the trend of the NHL. After the lockout the trend was speed and guys who could skate and not the defensive grind it out shell game but Dutter didn't react and the Flames wasted 2 years. Then they game moved to youth and entry level deals and the Flames kept getting older. Now the game is speed, skill, and relentless pursuit and the Flames still insist on being big and truclent and needs to spend high picks and precious cap space on Hamonic, Browuer, Tanner Glass, Lomberg etc. Time for the organization to take a really hard look and what they are doing, how they are doing it, and why do they continue to be behind the movement of where the game is going. I'm still encourage with Treliving because when you look at the drafting they are following that model but at the NHL level too many moves have been made that would have been great 2-3 years ago now, but are missing the boat as to how the game is played today. 

 

Wouldn't hurt them to be more patient too. I liked the rebuild, but signing guys like Brouwer and trading for Hamonic to rush it really set this off course IMO so let's get back to having a bit of patience. Get rid of guys like Stone and let Andersson figure it out, let Jankowski figure it out etc.Put everything and anything on the block and priotizing getting guys that are faster, can score and are relentless. 

 

If you can get a veteran coach, like Quenville, to tied it all together by all means look at it but right now i'm not too excited about the coaching market so I'm more much interested in the organization taking a good hard realistic look at where they are, having some more patience and building a team that can play in today game. I'm tired of the knee jerk reactions and the operating season by season stuff we've seen the last 15 years. It hasn't worked, hardly ever does in pro sports, so do something new. 

 

 

I agree cross (see below) . All one has to do is look up North to see bringing in a "profile" Coach like McLellan with up and down results. The right player mix is important ad although BT tried a few such as Brouwer and Jagr with good intentions the results were bad.

I like Hamonic but it as become obvious he shouldn't play with Brodie. I like parts of Brodie's game but not what we give up with his lousy defense. Agree with moving Stone.

[MAC331]

20 minutes ago, CheersMan said:

When they hired Gully we were told that the team is going to start working as a five-man unit, we would be faster and pressure the puck.  I’m not seeing it.  I see us sitting back in a box on the PK, allowing the other team to bring it.  Hartley got crucified on here for doing such things, playing the percentages and allowing shots from the outside.   Sending one guy in on the forecheck is not pressuring the puck.  The 4 losses in our last 5 games I have watched our team get schooled by teams that are faster and pressure the puck, forcing our mistakes.  We are getting out hustled on the ice surface and we are losing.  Our system is defined by the coaches and our system is not working.

Doesn't a lot of what you are saying come back to the majority of our players not being fast or having the right speed elements. If you don't have speed you better have good positioning on the ice. I think this has been the challenge for GG not the "systems". I understand the frustrations with watching our team, we need some changes no question.

[redfire11]

24 minutes ago, CheersMan said:

When they hired Gully we were told that the team is going to start working as a five-man unit, we would be faster and pressure the puck.  I’m not seeing it.  I see us sitting back in a box on the PK, allowing the other team to bring it.  Hartley got crucified on here for doing such things, playing the percentages and allowing shots from the outside.   Sending one guy in on the forecheck is not pressuring the puck.  The 4 losses in our last 5 games I have watched our team get schooled by teams that are faster and pressure the puck, forcing our mistakes.  We are getting out hustled on the ice surface and we are losing.  Our system is defined by the coaches and our system is not working.

I agree with Cross16 that we need to give a good coach time to implement their system. But first things first we need to find a GOOD coach. As I think we have the players to be a  competitive playoff team we need a coach that will work to our strengths with our existing core.

[MAC331]

6 minutes ago, redfire11 said:

I agree with Cross16 that we need to give a good coach time to implement their system. But first things first we need to find a GOOD coach. As I think we have the players to be a  competitive playoff team we need a coach that will work to our strengths with our existing core.

I read this and see someone that takes nothing else into account being said here.

[ABC923]

The mean tenure for a coach in the nhl is 3.5 seasons, while the median is only 2.5 years.  6 coaches in 15 years works out to 2.5, so Calgary is not exceptional in their coach replacement rate.

[travel_dude]

RE: Mike Stone 

 

Saw this in an blog, but the source is credible.  Draw your own conclusions.  I just think the eye test gives credence to it.

 

 

 

 

 

[cross16]

3 hours ago, CheersMan said:

When they hired Gully we were told that the team is going to start working as a five-man unit, we would be faster and pressure the puck.  I’m not seeing it.  I see us sitting back in a box on the PK, allowing the other team to bring it.  Hartley got crucified on here for doing such things, playing the percentages and allowing shots from the outside.   Sending one guy in on the forecheck is not pressuring the puck.  The 4 losses in our last 5 games I have watched our team get schooled by teams that are faster and pressure the puck, forcing our mistakes.  We are getting out hustled on the ice surface and we are losing.  Our system is defined by the coaches and our system is not working.

 

I've debated this enough so we don't need to go through this again but this is not a system issue. 5 on 5 this team is still very good and has been for much of the year it's their special teams and their consistency that is the issue. I don't know if you've watched the last few games but they ar executing nothing out there, they are a mess. That is not a system problem that a mental problem because the team is collapsing under the pressure. 

 

Anyway everyone has their own opinion but I see none of this as a system issue. Doesn't mean the coaches don't share blame they most definitely do but this isn't about how they play for me. The roster is by far a bigger concern for me. You can't play a fast up tempo game when you are not build to be a fast team. 

 

I am convinced the Flames play the game the right way. Whether or not Gulutzan is the right guy to keep them accountable debate away as that's more than a fair question to ask. But given the lack of success this organization has had hiring coaches and the lack of good coaches available, IMO, call me skeptical that an upgrade is going to be as easy as everyone thinks. 

 

1 hour ago, ABC923 said:

The mean tenure for a coach in the nhl is 3.5 seasons, while the median is only 2.5 years.  6 coaches in 15 years works out to 2.5, so Calgary is not exceptional in their coach replacement rate.

 

It's actually 6 coaches in 13 years, I rounded up in my initial post. So 7 in 14 years if the Flames choose to move on from Gulutzan...

 

That's pretty terrible... median or not let's be better than the median. 

 

[cross16]

5 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

RE: Mike Stone 

 

Saw this in an blog, but the source is credible.  Draw your own conclusions.  I just think the eye test gives credence to it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm still not on the "Fire Treliving" bandwagon but Stone was a mistake, no questions. The data and your eye test showed you last year he was not what this team needed especially after they got Hamonic. 

 

I really hope they can flip him for something. Stone is another example of where the Flames are just missing the boat sometimes on building the roster. 

[robrob74]

On 2018-02-02 at 7:48 PM, DirtyDeeds said:

I am now leaning towards the idea that the great goaltending we are getting from Smith is masking the flaws of the team and the flaws of the system we are playing.

 

You know like Kipper masked the quality of the play we were getting from Iggy and company.. back in the day.

 

Judging goaltending is difficult on stats alone. We can look at numbers and say, if only we had league average (#s) and then we will win x-amount more. 

 

Its tough to quantify the team game in relation to goalies, but I feel I try look at the big picture when watching.

 

stats people will say the numbers say we are a better team than with Hartley and with average goaltending we should make noise... 

 

for me, it’s when mistakes happen and how they happen that is important. These last few weeks have been consistent with the team play of the last few years. But we blame the goalie? Well, now we question whether it is the problem. 

 

Albeit, we didn’t have great goaltending so it’s an easy scapegoat.

[robrob74]

That last one was supposed to be posted awhile ago. Lol

 

umm, 

 

i was scared of the Ducks this year because they did a great job of hanging around with their injuries that plagued them early. We needed to create space between us and now it’s looking like a division spot is out of the question. 

 

We are now getting space between us in the wrong way.

 

this season is a bit of a disappointment so far. I think that disappointment stems mostly from the fact we don’t have that 1st round pick. I want to make the playoffs like Everyone else, but the fact we may not is really disturbing because of that pick.

 

Winnipeg has shown it is possible to win the lottery from a ways back. Not that we have that luck and we’d probably be further back, so...

[cccsberg]

6 hours ago, cross16 said:

I"m probably going to be alone on this one. but outside of Cameron i'm not firing anyone. I respect people have their own opinions and i respect i'm going to get shredded for this but here is what i'm most tired of. This isn't one season this is 13 years of the organization doing the same thing. For 13 years now the Flames have answered every disappointing season with "ok let's fire the coach or GM". You've gone through 6 coaches in 13 years so give me a break if you are trying to tell me this is a coaching issue. For 13 years now the flames have made moves that look good on paper, asked the team to step up and meet expectations and for 15 years they have failed every team. 6 different coaches haven't been able to get this team to take the next step and we want to put this on coaching? Either the Flames are one of the worst franchises in the history of sport for finding coaches or your problems exist hire up.

 

Time to look higher up here. IMO, since the Darryl Sutter days the flames are always a year to 2 years behind the trend of the NHL. After the lockout the trend was speed and guys who could skate and not the defensive grind it out shell game but Dutter didn't react and the Flames wasted 2 years. Then they game moved to youth and entry level deals and the Flames kept getting older. Now the game is speed, skill, and relentless pursuit and the Flames still insist on being big and truclent and needs to spend high picks and precious cap space on Hamonic, Browuer, Tanner Glass, Lomberg etc. Time for the organization to take a really hard look and what they are doing, how they are doing it, and why do they continue to be behind the movement of where the game is going. I'm still encourage with Treliving because when you look at the drafting they are following that model but at the NHL level too many moves have been made that would have been great 2-3 years ago now, but are missing the boat as to how the game is played today. 

 

Wouldn't hurt them to be more patient too. I liked the rebuild, but signing guys like Brouwer and trading for Hamonic to rush it really set this off course IMO so let's get back to having a bit of patience. Get rid of guys like Stone and let Andersson figure it out, let Jankowski figure it out etc.Put everything and anything on the block and priotizing getting guys that are faster, can score and are relentless. 

 

If you can get a veteran coach, like Quenville, to tied it all together by all means look at it but right now i'm not too excited about the coaching market so I'm more much interested in the organization taking a good hard realistic look at where they are, having some more patience and building a team that can play in today game. I'm tired of the knee jerk reactions and the operating season by season stuff we've seen the last 15 years. It hasn't worked, hardly ever does in pro sports, so do something new. 

 

 

I agree with many of your points. The Flames have been locked into a certain model they wish to follow (trusted vets, skill and toughness) and have been a bit premature in thinking they only need to fill a couple odd holes and things will improve dramatically.  This had led to some some moves like Brouwer, Smith, Stone, Hamonic... that although I think were reasonable at the time, by and large have been about 50% successful.  It is good that BT is trying, I'll give him credit for that.  The one area I totally agree with you and think is where we need to focus is in accountability.  Accountability for players in-game and out (are they preforming or not?  If not they should be riding the pine or eating popcorn...), accountability for coaches (are they able to develop a great plan & get the best from the players?) and accountability from management (are their projections and judgements working out?)....  I see a lot of non-accountability in this organization from all levels and to me all that does is promote a blaming, lackadaisical attitude and mediocrity in the team.  Until this is corrected, starting at the top, it'll be very, very tough to build a true, consistent winner.   I've got no problems firing GG.  If he isn't the guy or has done as much as he can, its time to move on.  Personally I think it is.  There are also players that need to go, some that never should have been here past training camp.  Heck, training camp we saw the same things as we've seen all season but too many on FN and elsewhere wanted to make excuses.  Well, this is what you end up with....  Hate to say it, but the Hartley era (...and he had his own issues too) is really looking like the best of the Flames in the past couple of decades....

[MAC331]

1 hour ago, cccsberg said:

I agree with many of your points. The Flames have been locked into a certain model they wish to follow (trusted vets, skill and toughness) and have been a bit premature in thinking they only need to fill a couple odd holes and things will improve dramatically.  This had led to some some moves like Brouwer, Smith, Stone, Hamonic... that although I think were reasonable at the time, by and large have been about 50% successful.  It is good that BT is trying, I'll give him credit for that.  The one area I totally agree with you and think is where we need to focus is in accountability.  Accountability for players in-game and out (are they preforming or not?  If not they should be riding the pine or eating popcorn...), accountability for coaches (are they able to develop a great plan & get the best from the players?) and accountability from management (are their projections and judgements working out?)....  I see a lot of non-accountability in this organization from all levels and to me all that does is promote a blaming, lackadaisical attitude and mediocrity in the team.  Until this is corrected, starting at the top, it'll be very, very tough to build a true, consistent winner.   I've got no problems firing GG.  If he isn't the guy or has done as much as he can, its time to move on.  Personally I think it is.  There are also players that need to go, some that never should have been here past training camp.  Heck, training camp we saw the same things as we've seen all season but too many on FN and elsewhere wanted to make excuses.  Well, this is what you end up with....  Hate to say it, but the Hartley era (...and he had his own issues too) is really looking like the best of the Flames in the past couple of decades....

I don't see a lack of accountability. I also don't see much wrong with a GM making certain moves like bringing Smith in to encourage his team to strive for playoff hockey. I don't think BT has done everything right but he has done some good things to move this team forward. Each season advances the experience level of our team and IMO this team lacks a certain degree of experience from key players. I see a team that is still maturing and shaping itself into the type of team desired. I believe between now and the start of next season significant moves can be made to get this team closer to a finished product that can become a consistent winner.

[travel_dude]

5 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

 

I'm still not on the "Fire Treliving" bandwagon but Stone was a mistake, no questions. The data and your eye test showed you last year he was not what this team needed especially after they got Hamonic. 

 

I really hope they can flip him for something. Stone is another example of where the Flames are just missing the boat sometimes on building the roster. 

 

My post was nothing to do with the coach.  I just wanted to show the charts.  I like the WOWY ones because they should show what could be described as chemistry or lack there of.  I think sometimes that BT makes judgements on the past, not where a player is now.  Smith was a victim of playing behind a bad team, while Stone was the bad team playing in front of him.

 

The coach is going to use what he has.  If he's seeing the games, he should be talking to BT about a change to that 3rd pair and his 7th guy..

[MAC331]

13 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

My post was nothing to do with the coach.  I just wanted to show the charts.  I like the WOWY ones because they should show what could be described as chemistry or lack there of.  I think sometimes that BT makes judgements on the past, not where a player is now.  Smith was a victim of playing behind a bad team, while Stone was the bad team playing in front of him.

 

The coach is going to use what he has.  If he's seeing the games, he should be talking to BT about a change to that 3rd pair and his 7th guy..

Putting individual players under a microscope is fine but Stone and Bartkowski are not why this team is losing games. All GMs tend to lean towards players they have some history with as do coaches. I think he brought in Stone because Hamonic had some recent injuries happening. Stone had shown capable of playing up or the 3rd pairing and Andersson wasn't deemed ready. Why BT gave him a 3 year deal was the question. The Bartkowski part has turned out well IMO only because Kulak has done his part by playing well. The other part of this we don't see but could be equally important with proper development is having Andersson and Wotherspoon pairing in Stockton.

[MAC331]

19 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

 

I'm still not on the "Fire Treliving" bandwagon but Stone was a mistake, no questions. The data and your eye test showed you last year he was not what this team needed especially after they got Hamonic. 

 

I really hope they can flip him for something. Stone is another example of where the Flames are just missing the boat sometimes on building the roster. 

Could we see a Stone for Zack Smith trade with OTT.

[cross16]

30 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

Could we see a Stone for Zack Smith trade with OTT.

 

We shouldn't.

 

I don't like Stone and don't like the fit, but don't trade 1 bad contract and 1 bad fit for another.

 

 

[MAC331]

Just now, cross16 said:

 

We shouldn't.

 

I don't like Stone and don't like the fit, but don't trade 1 bad contract and 1 bad fit for another.

 

 

Sometimes it is the only way to make a positive change to your own roster. Could we not survive and use a player like Zack Smith on our 4th line LW if BT was to buyout Brouwer and see Versteeg and Stajan gone ?

[cross16]

Just now, MAC331 said:

Sometimes it is the only way to make a positive change to your own roster. Could we not survive and use a player like Zack Smith on our 4th line LW if BT was to buyout Brouwer and see Versteeg and Stajan gone ?

 

I don't see that as a positive change, your making a change for the sake of change without getting better. Sure you shake it up so I get what you're thinking I just don't agree with the logic.

IMO, there is no circumstance where Zac Smith should be a Flame. He's a below avg 4th line center making almost 3rd line center money. Time to upgrade the bottom 6 and Smith doesn't do that. 

[cccsberg]

16 hours ago, MAC331 said:

I don't see a lack of accountability. I also don't see much wrong with a GM making certain moves like bringing Smith in to encourage his team to strive for playoff hockey. I don't think BT has done everything right but he has done some good things to move this team forward. Each season advances the experience level of our team and IMO this team lacks a certain degree of experience from key players. I see a team that is still maturing and shaping itself into the type of team desired. I believe between now and the start of next season significant moves can be made to get this team closer to a finished product that can become a consistent winner.

Like I said/implied, the Smith and Hamonic moves were good ones and rightfully moving the team in the correct direction.  The accountability thing is coaches and line-up decisions (e.g. Brouwerplay, Bartkowski, PP1) and with players not getting benched when playing poorly (e.g. Brouwer) or making continuous bone-headed decisions (e.g. Bennett's penalties).  On the management side keeping Brouwer when he's been a bust pretty much from the start, Jagr, GG.....  Hey, next year they will have more experience but why should we write off this year?  

 

I'm looking forward to the next few days prior to TDL.  Not expecting the Flames to do much because that is not BT's M.O., but you never know.  This team is so frustrating in that they play great and you think they've finally got it and are ready to move up but then fall apart.  In the midst of it all GG has his issues and seems to take forever to make a move that was obvious for months.  Maybe that's what BT wants... to slowly build but its hard to take.  This game doesn't wait for anybody and by the time GG has it figured out the game has moved on.  Let's see what happens to the outstanding #1 line from last game against Colorado tomorrow.  Will they even be together?  Probably so since GG stated Ferland has been hampered by an injury for the past half dozen games or so.  But then again, its GG.  

[MAC331]

3 hours ago, cccsberg said:

Like I said/implied, the Smith and Hamonic moves were good ones and rightfully moving the team in the correct direction.  The accountability thing is coaches and line-up decisions (e.g. Brouwerplay, Bartkowski, PP1) and with players not getting benched when playing poorly (e.g. Brouwer) or making continuous bone-headed decisions (e.g. Bennett's penalties).  On the management side keeping Brouwer when he's been a bust pretty much from the start, Jagr, GG.....  Hey, next year they will have more experience but why should we write off this year?  

 

I'm looking forward to the next few days prior to TDL.  Not expecting the Flames to do much because that is not BT's M.O., but you never know.  This team is so frustrating in that they play great and you think they've finally got it and are ready to move up but then fall apart.  In the midst of it all GG has his issues and seems to take forever to make a move that was obvious for months.  Maybe that's what BT wants... to slowly build but its hard to take.  This game doesn't wait for anybody and by the time GG has it figured out the game has moved on.  Let's see what happens to the outstanding #1 line from last game against Colorado tomorrow.  Will they even be together?  Probably so since GG stated Ferland has been hampered by an injury for the past half dozen games or so.  But then again, its GG.  

I know what you mean in regards to GG and if you go back in my posts for line structure you will see I disagreed with what has take place from the start. The line of Gaudreau, Monahan and Bennett is not one I mentioned only because I thought he would stay a C but I liked what I saw last night.

I thought something must be up with Ferland given he didn't start 1st line and didn't play the 3rd period.

[cccsberg]

10 hours ago, MAC331 said:

I know what you mean in regards to GG and if you go back in my posts for line structure you will see I disagreed with what has take place from the start. The line of Gaudreau, Monahan and Bennett is not one I mentioned only because I thought he would stay a C but I liked what I saw last night.

I thought something must be up with Ferland given he didn't start 1st line and didn't play the 3rd period.

Yeah, this year there have been multiple instances of guys pulled from games prior to trades, and even the NYR healthy-sitting multiple guys already figuring deals are imminent.   Ferland could just be an injury (GG mentioned he's had one for several games now) or motivational demotion, but it makes you wonder.  Apparently Mangiapane was a scratch tonight too for the Heat.

[MAC331]

7 hours ago, cccsberg said:

Yeah, this year there have been multiple instances of guys pulled from games prior to trades, and even the NYR healthy-sitting multiple guys already figuring deals are imminent.   Ferland could just be an injury (GG mentioned he's had one for several games now) or motivational demotion, but it makes you wonder.  Apparently Mangiapane was a scratch tonight too for the Heat.

I believe Ferland has some nagging injury, this kid is a gamer and when not 100% it shows. If Bennett stays with JG and SM then Mangiapane makes the most sense to come up and play with Jankowski. Hopefully he can pot a few goals this time up.

[DirtyDeeds]

On 2/20/2018 at 11:59 PM, travel_dude said:

 

Gio is having a good season defensively, but I think he's starting to lose some of his offence.

He's got one good move, and uses it almost every shot he takes.  It's the only one that seems to hit the net.

Hate to say it, but the time to move Gio is in the net 1-2 years.  Even then may be too late to get any real value.

The problem is you would need to replace the leadership as well.

Monahan isn;t really a leader.  Brouwer needs to be gone.  Backlund doesn't really command your attention.

 

This is not Gio losing a step offensively but rather the GG system holding him back.

Clearly BH got more out of our D than GG is capable of.

[CheersMan]

17 minutes ago, DirtyDeeds said:

This is not Gio losing a step offensively but rather the GG system holding him back.

Clearly BH got more out of our D than GG is capable of.

 

BH got more out of everyone I believe.  Furthermore, I hope Gully can learn how to do that as well, and quickly.

[Flyerfan52]

1 hour ago, CheersMan said:

 

BH got more out of everyone I believe.  Furthermore, I hope Gully can learn how to do that as well, and quickly.

I hope GG keeps his mind on the game now that his seat has gone from warm to hot.

I'm curious what good coachs on bad teams become available after the season. Some good 1s coach teams that are going to dumpster dive due to management so have few horses @ their disposal. Hard to win with few good 1s surrounded by old nags.