So Where do we go from here? Analysis & Predictions

[MAC331]

5 hours ago, AlbertaBoy12 said:

 

I dont think there has to be a big difference between us building and us being in "win now" mode, both could happen going into next season. Honestly johnny/mony will continue to produce regardless of who plays on their right side they have proved that. What needs to happen is bennetts line needs to really get going, if I was an opposing couch, deciding which guy to match with my top pairing, it would be difficult between the top 3 lines if bennett gets going. Also to go further with that, in my mind its ok to have a couple gaps in your forward group, if you have good pairings and a good defensive group, which at this point we do. 

 

I dont expect the flames to necessarily be the #1 team in the western conference next year, but if we were a wild card team again id be very disappointed. After November we were a top 5 team in wins, obviously that could change with injuries or luck. But our goaltending should be better from the word go, our defensive group is elite, and our forward group should take a step. I think if we arent a top 10 team next year, its disappointing. If Bennets line gets going, we are talking about 3 very good offensive lines, and an elite D corp, theres no way it shouldnt be a top 10 team.

I agree and our forward groupings will be important. I like the roster and the versatility it has amongst the talent. The other aspect I like is that the gap between the main team and ready talent in Stockton has narrowed so we should be in better shape to cover off injuries.

[The_People1]

3 hours ago, robrob74 said:

 

 

I am just quoting you to show topic. 

Dallas improved so it could make it difficult on the Preds, even us. That makes it imperative to have a winning record against our division. Our success hinges on what we do against Vancouver, LV, Arizona, and LA... especially. 

 

2 hours ago, conundrumed said:

I'm really looking at Dallas with a hairy eyeball. Radulov, Hanzal, Methot, top $ contracts, like you didn't negotiate, just bought them.

Methot at $4.9? Wow, guess he's their number 1 guy. Same old Dallas...

Bishop, just how quickly did Stevie Y know Vas was going to run Bishop over?

He was available for a full year.

Yzerman is hyper-great at GM as we can all see, did he not have faith in Bishop, or did Bishop's agent try to play hardball ala Drouin?

Again Dallas, all O, no D. Did you not "surprise" only 2 years ago?

It could very well be a train wreck, imho.

But I agree with your premise, it's a very even league. If there are teams you should crush, you'd better be doing it. Can't just say we're better and make excuses, gotta prove it.

 

It looks like MIN and CHI make the playoffs for sure.  STL is steady steady.  WPG looks good from organic growth.  NSH has the whole "everybody wants to beat them and prove something" problem.

 

DAL could be a dark horse as well if they can outscore their problems on D.

 

NSH also starts season without their #1 Center.  No easy feat to overcome.  Only made the playoffs last week of the season.  Rinne will turn 35 in November.  There's reasons.

[MAC331]

Pure speculation but does anyone see a new contract for Backlund before the season starts and what is the hold up with Bennett's contract ???

Thoughts

[Flyerfan52]

3 hours ago, MAC331 said:

Pure speculation but does anyone see a new contract for Backlund before the season starts and what is the hold up with Bennett's contract ???

Thoughts

There's time as Bennett didn't file for arbitration.

Between the 2 drafts & trading for Hamonic, acquiring 2 goalies  along with signing the easier negotiated 1s BT's been a tad busy. My guess is #s/term are being tossed around with both agent's players.

[robrob74]

3 hours ago, Flyerfan52 said:

There's time as Bennett didn't file for arbitration.

Between the 2 drafts & trading for Hamonic, acquiring 2 goalies  along with signing the easier negotiated 1s BT's been a tad busy. My guess is #s/term are being tossed around with both agent's players.

 

I am thinking it could be more a term thing if they're not going to arbitration.

[Flyerfan52]

13 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

I am thinking it could be more a term thing if they're not going to arbitration.

There are so many possibles.

Either side could be asking for a bridge "show me" type cotract for instance. BT because he doesn't want to commit long term while Bennett's camp might be thinking in 1 year he'll have proved to be worth big $s with term.

OTOH BT might just be waiting on the Backlund side before he decides. Backlund re-signed @ good $s & term could make Bennett disposable or someone you keep around while getting a better return on a re-upped Backs.

[cross16]

Bennett didn't have arbitration rights. For that reason alone he likely was at the bottom of the priority list given there really is no pain point there. 

 

Its a tricky negotiation when you think of potential vs performance and does Bennett just want the 1 year to rebuild? What role do the flames evision for Bennett and how does that impact how much term he wants? How much more does he want if term is involved? 

 

Not the easiest and given they likely just started negotiating I would suspect this may take some time. 

[robrob74]

14 minutes ago, cross16 said:

Bennett didn't have arbitration rights. For that reason alone he likely was at the bottom of the priority list given there really is no pain point there. 

 

Its a tricky negotiation when you think of potential vs performance and does Bennett just want the 1 year to rebuild? What role do the flames evision for Bennett and how does that impact how much term he wants? How much more does he want if term is involved? 

 

Not the easiest and given they likely just started negotiating I would suspect this may take some time. 

 

My bet is around August 21st. I am just throwing a number out there. Haha. My original thought was August 15th. If they don't get it done by then, it's when I will worry.

[AlbertaBoy12]

11 hours ago, robrob74 said:

 

My bet is around August 21st. I am just throwing a number out there. Haha. My original thought was August 15th. If they don't get it done by then, it's when I will worry.

I wouldnt worry I really doubt it doesnt get done before the season, bennett has no benefit to sitting out and the flames probably dont want him to missing training camp. If something doesnt get done, that would be very weird and either side would have to be playing extreme hard ball.

[tmac70]

On paper I like the d core but eye test will confirm if it can translate to the ice. For me it is the forwards that strike the largest challenge with line ups. We know Backlund makes players around him better and am fine with the split of the triple M line as well as splitting JG and Mony. I know that some will have the attitude that why mess with a good thing but really it is that good. I do know that JG requires someone that assists on opening some space, I believe Bennett does this with his speed and we need a prospect such as Foo or Porier to step up as well. I would also put bennett back on the wing, he seems to be better suited there.

 

 

 

 

[MAC331]

5 minutes ago, tmac70 said:

On paper I like the d core but eye test will confirm if it can translate to the ice. For me it is the forwards that strike the largest challenge with line ups. We know Backlund makes players around him better and am fine with the split of the triple M line as well as splitting JG and Mony. I know that some will have the attitude that why mess with a good thing but really it is that good. I do know that JG requires someone that assists on opening some space, I believe Bennett does this with his speed and we need a prospect such as Foo or Porier to step up as well. I would also put bennett back on the wing, he seems to be better suited there.

 

 

 

 

Here are a few facts about our team IMO. Gaudreau and Monahan are good together (proven). Backlund and Frolik are good together (proven). This team has all kinds of talent for LW positions, Bennett was a C in Junior and has been a C while here, he looked particularly better within GG's system especially near the end of last season. We have a very talented LW in Tkachuk which could go a long way to providing us with 3 very potent line pairings. RW for us remains with some searching and hoping that players such as Brouwer, Ferland and Lazar can provide some solutions along this side. Poirier, Shinkaruk and Foo still need some work at the AHL level so the team can rely on them to step in as needed.

[MAC331]

21 minutes ago, AlbertaBoy12 said:

I wouldnt worry I really doubt it doesnt get done before the season, bennett has no benefit to sitting out and the flames probably dont want him to missing training camp. If something doesnt get done, that would be very weird and either side would have to be playing extreme hard ball.

I have no fear he will sign and maybe cross is right about there being no hurry.

[tmac70]

1 hour ago, MAC331 said:

Here are a few facts about our team IMO. Gaudreau and Monahan are good together (proven). Backlund and Frolik are good together (proven). This team has all kinds of talent for LW positions, Bennett was a C in Junior and has been a C while here, he looked particularly better within GG's system especially near the end of last season. We have a very talented LW in Tkachuk which could go a long way to providing us with 3 very potent line pairings. RW for us remains with some searching and hoping that players such as Brouwer, Ferland and Lazar can provide some solutions along this side. Poirier, Shinkaruk and Foo still need some work at the AHL level so the team can rely on them to step in as needed.

 Not sure what good in your dictionary but 5 vs 5 this team was average or below at best. We are going to need stronger output 5 vs 5 to push further than we have. Without a line mate to open space JG is easily shut down. This is not a slight against the players but IMHO we need better complimentary players for some to push further. Bennett has been left with crap for line mates and has been reined back, however excelled in playoff hockey as he was allowed to play his game. JG is steps ahead of line mates but when paired with Bennett seemed to push the D back opening space. Backs makes players around him better, JG can create offense if given a little more time and space.

[cross16]

As i've often argued, I think Bennett takes too much heat from fans for what some argue is "poor play". I found both these charts interesting. It measures successful zone entries with both shots/entry and passing per entry. The first is shots per entry and Bennett is the unlabelled Flame logo in between Gaudreau and Backlund. 

Long story short, who is driving your offence at the blueline. Bennett is one of the best on the team alongside the like of Gaudreau and Backlund, and compares to the likes of Kucherov, Tavares and Ovechkin.

 

Now by no means am I suggesting that Bennett is as good because at the end of the day you need to finish and produce and Bennett does not. However, this does lend alot to the argument that a serious drain on Bennett's production has to do with the linemates he has been playing with. I think the trend in Bennett's game is more positive than we think sometimes. 

[MAC331]

2 hours ago, tmac70 said:

 Not sure what good in your dictionary but 5 vs 5 this team was average or below at best. We are going to need stronger output 5 vs 5 to push further than we have. Without a line mate to open space JG is easily shut down. This is not a slight against the players but IMHO we need better complimentary players for some to push further. Bennett has been left with crap for line mates and has been reined back, however excelled in playoff hockey as he was allowed to play his game. JG is steps ahead of line mates but when paired with Bennett seemed to push the D back opening space. Backs makes players around him better, JG can create offense if given a little more time and space.

How do you describe good ? we are in agreement the 5 on 5 results have to be better in order for the team to be better. To say Gaudreau and Monahan are not goodtogether is wrong because the results are there. Could they be better if they had a better RW to open up more space for the other two, the answer is yes. I have said Ferland will do some of that for that line however I would go a step further to say they need another exceptional passer/sniper as an equal threat. We are not there yet with that line, putting JG with Bennett doesn't accomplish what you think it will. IMO

Bennett with Tkachuk creates another possible dynamic the opposition will need to defense and this is where as a team we will need to have the biggest 5 on 5 improvement.

[tmac70]

On 2017-07-28 at 1:18 PM, MAC331 said:

How do you describe good ? we are in agreement the 5 on 5 results have to be better in order for the team to be better. To say Gaudreau and Monahan are not goodtogether is wrong because the results are there. Could they be better if they had a better RW to open up more space for the other two, the answer is yes. I have said Ferland will do some of that for that line however I would go a step further to say they need another exceptional passer/sniper as an equal threat. We are not there yet with that line, putting JG with Bennett doesn't accomplish what you think it will. IMO

Bennett with Tkachuk creates another possible dynamic the opposition will need to defense and this is where as a team we will need to have the biggest 5 on 5 improvement.

IMHO you have Poor, Average, Good, Excellent. Good was Backs line last year, Average was Mony and JG and Poor was Bennett. Does Tkachuk make Bennett better? I believe He is a good complimentary player on the line. If you wish Bennett to have a banner year, he needs better wingers, you want to elevate Mony and JG they need a better line mate. Ferland opened space for them with speed and physical pressure. We had one good line and one common player that make others better in Backs.

 

I like our D core on paper but we have seen that script before. Our forward group is at best average last year and looks similar this year, unless we see some huge surprize from out prospects

[travel_dude]

2 hours ago, tmac70 said:

IMHO you have Poor, Average, Good, Excellent. Good was Backs line last year, Average was Mony and JG and Poor was Bennett. Does Tkachuk make Bennett better? I believe He is a good complimentary player on the line. If you wish Bennett to have a banner year, he needs better wingers, you want to elevate Mony and JG they need a better line mate. Ferland opened space for them with speed and physical pressure. We had one good line and one common player that make others better in Backs.

 

I like our D core on paper but we have seen that script before. Our forward group is at best average last year and looks similar this year, unless we see some huge surprize from out prospects

 

The top line had some drama last year, as well as the age-old problem of who plays RW.  Monahan injures back during summer training, manages one pre-season game.  JH out until one day before the season starts.  After that it's the old "who replaces Hudler" problem.  Even with those struggles, they managed 1,2 in team scoring.  IWo of those problem don't exist this year, so the RW search is the only distraction for them.  

 

Forward group is similar, but does not have a new coach to deal with.  Bouma and Chaisson are gone.  Wideman, Grossmann, Engelland are gone.  Two actual top pairs on defense.  A team that underperformed last year with improvements made at some key areas.  With even just average goaltending, the Brodie pair is light out better than last year's setup.  I don;t think you can understate that.  

[MAC331]

6 hours ago, tmac70 said:

IMHO you have Poor, Average, Good, Excellent. Good was Backs line last year, Average was Mony and JG and Poor was Bennett. Does Tkachuk make Bennett better? I believe He is a good complimentary player on the line. If you wish Bennett to have a banner year, he needs better wingers, you want to elevate Mony and JG they need a better line mate. Ferland opened space for them with speed and physical pressure. We had one good line and one common player that make others better in Backs.

 

I like our D core on paper but we have seen that script before. Our forward group is at best average last year and looks similar this year, unless we see some huge surprize from out prospects

I don't know how many times it has been said but this team has a young core and any real improvement for the team will evolve by them maturing. To say JG and SM are average is low balling their talent and abilities. Whoever GG decides to play with them has to have something that enhances what they are already doing in order to see improvement.

I don't really care who plays Backlund and Frolik, they do the heavy lifting for a reason they are very good at it. They don't need Tkachuk on that line in order to fill the role they carry out for this team.

if we are going to improve our 5 on 5 and scoring we need another line to break out and perform, maybe it is anchored by Tkachuk and Bennett maybe it isn't but I think we need to find out.

Our 4th line is going to be a secondary checking line so what our top 9 delivers is where the improvement has to come from. Our defense should be able to better support the forward group and we could see some improved offense from the back end.

[420since1974]

I'm optimistic that there will be good growth from within this season, and there has already been some addition by subtraction (Wideman).

There could be as few as 3 players (Hamonic, Lack, & Smith) that have to learn a new coach & system.

There were multiple issues that led to last year's extremely poor start; new coach, new system, training injuries, short training camps for some players.

But this season, the first two shouldn't be as much of an issue, and we can cross our fingers the other two don't happen again.

If the Flames can finish the first 20 games above .500, they probably won't need a 10 game winning streak to snag a Wildcard spot.

Heck, they might even be able to gun for Top 2 or Top 3 in the Pacific Division.

[MAC331]

13 hours ago, 420since1974 said:

I'm optimistic that there will be good growth from within this season, and there has already been some addition by subtraction (Wideman).

There could be as few as 3 players (Hamonic, Lack, & Smith) that have to learn a new coach & system.

There were multiple issues that led to last year's extremely poor start; new coach, new system, training injuries, short training camps for some players.

But this season, the first two shouldn't be as much of an issue, and we can cross our fingers the other two don't happen again.

If the Flames can finish the first 20 games above .500, they probably won't need a 10 game winning streak to snag a Wildcard spot.

Heck, they might even be able to gun for Top 2 or Top 3 in the Pacific Division.

Simple system for goalies, stop the puck. Hamonic is a smart player so I don't think he has much problem with systems, figuring out Brodie's moves may be his challenge.

[travel_dude]

13 hours ago, 420since1974 said:

There could be as few as 3 players (Hamonic, Lack, & Smith) that have to learn a new coach & system.

There were multiple issues that led to last year's extremely poor start; new coach, new system, training injuries, short training camps for some players.

 

There is already a Lack-GG connection, so I don't worry about him (other than being as bad as he was in CAR).  Hamonic's game is suited for the West.  Smith communicates well enough, so I don't see much issue with his play.  Brodie works well with a stay-at-home D-man, which showed in his more stable performance with Stone.   

[MAC331]

2 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

There is already a Lack-GG connection, so I don't worry about him (other than being as bad as he was in CAR).  Hamonic's game is suited for the West.  Smith communicates well enough, so I don't see much issue with his play.  Brodie works well with a stay-at-home D-man, which showed in his more stable performance with Stone.   

Hamonic IMO is more like Giordano than a stay at home defenseman. He likes to force the play forward in al 3 zones.

[kehatch]

1 hour ago, MAC331 said:

Hamonic IMO is more like Giordano than a stay at home defenseman. He likes to force the play forward in al 3 zones.

 

He has cracked 30 points once and is definitely more defensive minded. That said, your right that he can play in all three zones. 

 

I think the days of a true defensive zone D man are over, at least in the top 4. You need to add to the five man unit in the offensive zone and you need to play the transition game. Hamonic does those things. Fortunately so do all of our D signed for next season. 

[MAC331]

48 minutes ago, kehatch said:

 

He has cracked 30 points once and is definitely more defensive minded. That said, your right that he can play in all three zones. 

 

I think the days of a true defensive zone D man are over, at least in the top 4. You need to add to the five man unit in the offensive zone and you need to play the transition game. Hamonic does those things. Fortunately so do all of our D signed for next season. 

Your point ? or are you agreeing with me for once ?

[cross16]

I agree the definition of what a defensive dman has, or at least should be, changing. Playing in all 3 zones is IMO a basic requirement in order to be an NHL dman, and should not differentiate between what and offensive dman or defensive dman is. You ideally do not want guys like that on your team anymore because the game, and specifically the transition game is too fast. Everyone will different strengths and weakness of course but you'd got to be able to affect play in all 3 zones if you want to be a good top 4 dman, IMO at least. 

 

Hamonic can jump up into the rush but he isn't going to lead the rush while Gio is at his best leading the rush and carrying the puck. Hamonic is far more likely to pass it up to forwards and let them do the work or allow his D partner to rush it than he is to take it himself. Different style than Gio IMO and should fit well with Brodie for that reason.