So Where do we go from here? Analysis & Predictions

[travel_dude]

Let me throw out this one as far as the defense goes:

 

Sign Franson (4 years x $2.5m) and Stone (3 years x $2m).

Bring up Kulak or Kylington or Healey, whoever shows best in camp.

 

Pairings:

Gio-Hamilton

Brodie-Franson

?-Stone

 

I don't think that Stone was that bad when he was here, but he wasn't that much of a step up from Wideman for effect.  The 2nd pair still struggled against better lines.  Franson would be a reasonable low cost signing.  Stone would be the Engelland of the 3rd pairing.  He gives you depth that we lacked last season.  Maybe he wouldn't sign for that low, but it is a longer term deal than his last one, and he is coming off a bad season.

[travel_dude]

5 minutes ago, AlbertaBoy12 said:

I thought gaudreau was good in the playoffs, and while he wasent amazing he was good. He certainly didnt look intimidated ,if anything he looked to be a more gritty player throwing hits of his own and at some points roughing it up after the whistle. While he didnt have a ton of production at 5 on 5, no one on the flames did, for some reason the bounces didnt go our way but gaudreau and the first line still had plenty of good chances at 5 on 5.

 

I'm not going to argue about JH's playoffs.  He was mostly a non-factor, but the same could be said for Backlund, Frolik, Tkachuk, Stajan, Ferland, etc.  I don't think he was playing scared.  I think he was playing hacked.  My complaint of JH was that he passed up too many opportunities to shoot, but he does that a lot anyway.  I think he needs to work on his shot positioning myself; top shelf is his go-to spot.  There are a lot of better spots to score than that, especially against goalies that stop 90% of those shots.

[AlbertaBoy12]

Just now, travel_dude said:

 

I'm not going to argue about JH's playoffs.  He was mostly a non-factor, but the same could be said for Backlund, Frolik, Tkachuk, Stajan, Ferland, etc.  I don't think he was playing scared.  I think he was playing hacked.  My complaint of JH was that he passed up too many opportunities to shoot, but he does that a lot anyway.  I think he needs to work on his shot positioning myself; top shelf is his go-to spot.  There are a lot of better spots to score than that, especially against goalies that stop 90% of those shots.

I agree completely like I said most flames players were non factors at 5 on 5, but I dont think johnny or the 1st line didnt have a chances at 5 on 5, but they could have been better. Id be interested to see what happens in the future, as I think johnny will learn from this and at the end of the series he was shooting more, I think he should be better next year.

 

18 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

Let me throw out this one as far as the defense goes:

 

Sign Franson (4 years x $2.5m) and Stone (3 years x $2m).

Bring up Kulak or Kylington or Healey, whoever shows best in camp.

 

Pairings:

Gio-Hamilton

Brodie-Franson

?-Stone

 

I don't think that Stone was that bad when he was here, but he wasn't that much of a step up from Wideman for effect.  The 2nd pair still struggled against better lines.  Franson would be a reasonable low cost signing.  Stone would be the Engelland of the 3rd pairing.  He gives you depth that we lacked last season.  Maybe he wouldn't sign for that low, but it is a longer term deal than his last one, and he is coming off a bad season.

Im not 100% sure on the term and $ figure of those contracts. But at the same time I think franson makes our 2nd pairing better then stone does, and I think stone makes our 3rd pairing much better. I dont necessarily think stone is going to get a contract offer somewhere else, that is much higher then 2m but who knows with the way the NHL is some days.

[travel_dude]

15 minutes ago, AlbertaBoy12 said:

Im not 100% sure on the term and $ figure of those contracts. But at the same time I think franson makes our 2nd pairing better then stone does, and I think stone makes our 3rd pairing much better. I dont necessarily think stone is going to get a contract offer somewhere else, that is much higher then 2m but who knows with the way the NHL is some days.

 

It's just a reasonable projection of the player's salary history.  Franson has not done enough to justify $4m IMHO.  He was sufficiently good enough on a bad team, so giving him term may make up for the lower dollar figure.  Shorter term for more money.  Stone doesn't have a lot of bargaining power right now.  He was bad on a bad team, and didn't really light it up with the Flames.  But, he is the right type of player for us; tough, has some offense, and would likely want a shorter term to prove he is worth more.

 

 

[MAC331]

1 hour ago, AlbertaBoy12 said:

I agree with you that the backlund trade would be similar to the staal trade, ive said it before I think you only trade backlund if his contract demands become too much, or if some team really blows you out of  the water with their offer, something you cant refuse.

 

I dont really get all the clamoring for  giving up on our #1 scoring player, while I agree he didnt necessarily perform up to a superstar level this year, he turned things around in the 2nd half and started to look better, I dont think he will be as bad next year. As others have said I dont really think we win that trade, I would assume we would lose that trade and I dont think weber for gaudreau would make sense. If we were going to make the gaudreau trade it would be for a top 4 d man( which would be nice to add to really fill things out) and a top 6 player of some sort, but I really dont see which teams in the league are giving up a top 6 player in exchange for gaudreau that makes us any better. If we trade gaudreau for draft picks, then we might as well blow up the whole team and start from scratch, you cant just subtract 60 points from your team and expect it to be replaced by no one. 

 

I thought gaudreau was good in the playoffs, and while he wasent amazing he was good. He certainly didnt look intimidated ,if anything he looked to be a more gritty player throwing hits of his own and at some points roughing it up after the whistle. While he didnt have a ton of production at 5 on 5, no one on the flames did, for some reason the bounces didnt go our way but gaudreau and the first line still had plenty of good chances at 5 on 5.

 

I dont think the flames replace ferland on the top line with oshie, I really dont see them overspending on a big term contract it just wouldnt make sense in my opinion. If they can make a trade like the dougie hamilton one for a good young RW, they will do that, but I dont think oshie is the type of player you add at this point on a long term deal. Ferland performed very good down the stretch in that spot, and while there is obviously better options around the league, I would be more concerned about shoring up our bottom 3 D, fixing our bottom 6( most importantly finding another winger for bennett or backlund if you move tkachuk with bennett) and then seeing what we can grab for a top winger to replace ferland. Id much rather have a top 9 with 3 good lines, then oshie playing with gaudreau and mony, as they have already proved time and again that they dont need oshie, ferland is more then fine.  

So are you saying if Oshie is willing to sign with Calgary on a good contract the Flames shouldn't do it ? Also you have to remember the Hamilton situation in BOS allowed that type of deal to happen. How many RW potentials are discontented enough not wanting to sign with their current team ? I would guess not any but invite your suggestions of who to target. Ferland did well as a distraction on the top line and we could get by with him however TJ Oshie bring far more to the table. If you get Oshie you can better utilize Ferland elsewhere in the line up = better team overall.

Gaudreau isn't going anywhere however I have enjoyed some of the thinking surrounding his performance this season.

[MAC331]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

Let me throw out this one as far as the defense goes:

 

Sign Franson (4 years x $2.5m) and Stone (3 years x $2m).

Bring up Kulak or Kylington or Healey, whoever shows best in camp.

 

Pairings:

Gio-Hamilton

Brodie-Franson

?-Stone

 

I don't think that Stone was that bad when he was here, but he wasn't that much of a step up from Wideman for effect.  The 2nd pair still struggled against better lines.  Franson would be a reasonable low cost signing.  Stone would be the Engelland of the 3rd pairing.  He gives you depth that we lacked last season.  Maybe he wouldn't sign for that low, but it is a longer term deal than his last one, and he is coming off a bad season.

If management is going to continue building this team the right way they have to start moving in some of the better prospects from the farm  If they deem Rasmus Andersson ready then I think you try and sign one of Stone or Franson for our RSD not both. I like the way Stone played and he adds any playing partner the stability for our D zone. The remaining LSD position could end up being a competition amongst those you have mentioned or it could be revolving to try each of them at some point through the season. My guess is they won't be in any hurry to have Kylington or Healy rushed up. Kulak showed some promise and there may still be Bartkowski and good ole Wotherspoon kicking around.

[Carty]

Somebody has to throw this one out there...   and I am not saying it is a great idea...   Just cheap fodder for discussion

 

Sounds like Kovalchuk wants back in the NHL...   He just turned 34, and is coming off a 78 point season in 60 KHL games with 32 goals and 46 assists...   He has size at 6'3", 227 lbs...   Still listed as a LW but played quite a bit at RW with the Devils...   Just went and watched a fair bit for clips before posting this, and he still has speed and endurance, can dominate the play and has a snipers shot...

 

Don't think there is any chance he will play for the Devils, and don't think it would cost that much to obtain his rights...   also don't think he will be looking for a huge payday, but more of an opportunity to play on a quality line with a chance to contribute and shine on a team that has a shot at potentially chasing a cup within the next few years...

 

Again, just food for thought as a possible option if someone like Oshie is not available...

[travel_dude]

Just now, MAC331 said:

If management is going to continue building this team the right way they have to start moving in some of the better prospects from the farm  If they deem Rasmus Andersson ready then I think you try and sign one of Stone or Franson for our RSD not both. I like the way Stone played and he adds any playing partner the stability for our D zone. The remaining LSD position could end up being a competition amongst those you have mentioned or it could be revolving to try each of them at some point through the season. My guess is they won't be in any hurry to have Kylington or Healy rushed up. Kulak showed some promise and there may still be Bartkowski and good ole Wotherspoon kicking around.

 

Though I though Bart was okay, he showed no better than Kulak.  He's tougher and harder to play against, but bleeds shots.

If he doesn't get claimed (which he won't), I would be okay with him on the farm.  Depth defender only.

 

Maybe Andersson is ready for the NHL, but his speed still seems too slow for the NHL.  If they could work with him this year on his power skating, then he might be a good 3rd pair option.  Franson is still young enough to become part of the main group. Stone is too.  He's just one year removed from a good season.

 

17 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

So are you saying if Oshie is willing to sign with Calgary on a good contract the Flames shouldn't do it ? Also you have to remember the Hamilton situation in BOS allowed that type of deal to happen. How many RW potentials are discontented enough not wanting to sign with their current team ? I would guess not any but invite your suggestions of who to target. Ferland did well as a distraction on the top line and we could get by with him however TJ Oshie bring far more to the table. If you get Oshie you can better utilize Ferland elsewhere in the line up = better team overall.

Gaudreau isn't going anywhere however I have enjoyed some of the thinking surrounding his performance this season.

 

Oshie may be an attractive option, especially if you can get him for less than $5m.  The problem is that WASH will give him at least that.  And he's not young anymore.  Do you want to go 6 years on a player 31 years old. 

[ABC923]

Personally, I think a lot of us are overreacting to getting swept.  Two years ago when we lost in five, we felt outclassed in most games.  We got a few bounces, a solid goaltending performance, and squeaked out a win against a superior foe.  This year felt different.  In my opinion, we went toe to toe with Anaheim, and if not for a handful of bad bounces and mistakes (horrible line change, high sticked goal, etc.) which all wound up in the back of the net, we could have won any of the games we played.  Sometimes luck is a factor, and if we played the series all over again I could see a different result happening.

 

On JG's performance, he didn't have a great playoffs, no doubt.  But it was only four games, which is a small sample size.  This was his second playoff appearance in his career, and some are branding him as a poor playoff performer already.  He's only 23, with 3 years nhl experience, it just seems too early to brand him that way.  

 

On Elliott, he definitely had a bad playoff, but he has been very good in the past in the playoffs and had some very good stretches this year.  I would bring him back on a two year contract if the price is right.  I don't see many other better options out there right now, unless we can get Murray out of Pittsburgh or Schneider out of NJ.  Bishop had a bad year and will demand too large a contract, and MAF is not really that much of an upgrade and has too much term left.  I believe one of Gilles, Rittich or Parsons will be very good in the nhl in a few years, so a place holder is all we really need in my opinion.

 

Finally, on the team in general.  Imagine where we would be without the dreadful start to the year as the team adjusted to GG new system.  Some (myself included) didn't think it was possible to recover to make the playoff by the end of November.  A few more wins (including one or two against the oilers) and we would have hosted a playoff series instead of being a wildcard.  I think this was a good year, with a disappointing end, with some bright spots to look forward to.  

[JTech780]

I really see Oshie as a long shot to come here.  It would be nice to get him, but between term and dollar amount I just don't see a fit. He is most likely the top forward on the market and will garner plenty of attention. I think the starting point for Oshie will be 6x$6m.

[MAC331]

Just now, JTech780 said:

I really see Oshie as a long shot to come here.  It would be nice to get him, but between term and dollar amount I just don't see a fit. He is most likely the top forward on the market and will garner plenty of attention. I think the starting point for Oshie will be 6x$6m.

Time will tell there are points to made for a salary anywhere between 5M to 6M.

[MAC331]

51 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Though I though Bart was okay, he showed no better than Kulak.  He's tougher and harder to play against, but bleeds shots.

If he doesn't get claimed (which he won't), I would be okay with him on the farm.  Depth defender only.

 

Maybe Andersson is ready for the NHL, but his speed still seems too slow for the NHL.  If they could work with him this year on his power skating, then he might be a good 3rd pair option.  Franson is still young enough to become part of the main group. Stone is too.  He's just one year removed from a good season.

 

 

Oshie may be an attractive option, especially if you can get him for less than $5m.  The problem is that WASH will give him at least that.  And he's not young anymore.  Do you want to go 6 years on a player 31 years old. 

I would go 5.5M and 5 years for TJ Oshie, whether that does it or not we will see. I still wouldn't mind trading for Toffoli from LA if their new GM is up for it.

[AlbertaBoy12]

10 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

I would go 5.5M and 5 years for TJ Oshie, whether that does it or not we will see. I still wouldn't mind trading for Toffoli from LA if their new GM is up for it.

To answer your question if oshie was willing to sign a good contract I would sign him to play on the flames. But at the same time I dont think 5 years and 5.5 m is a good contract regardless of how good you think oshie is. Hes never been more then a middle 6 player up until this year when his shooting percentage was over 20%, and that kind of contract is how this team is going to get into trouble. Oshie will be 32 going into next season and a 5 year contract is going to get us into trouble. If oshie was really interested in playing with the flames for 2 years at 6 million id be all over that, but 5 years is far too long and will only get us into trouble cap wise. I agree that he would help the team in the short term, I just dont see the fit long term and I dont see him wanting to sign with the flames that badly.

[The_People1]

25 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

I would go 5.5M and 5 years for TJ Oshie, whether that does it or not we will see. I still wouldn't mind trading for Toffoli from LA if their new GM is up for it.

 

Toffoli is probably off limits but Jeff Carter may be available at the right price.  

[travel_dude]

17 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Toffoli is probably off limits but Jeff Carter may be available at the right price.  

 

I would be interested in Carter as well.  RHS that can play C.  Gives flexibility on the top line for faceoffs.  His contract term is a killer though.  If you compare his contract/term to what you likely have to pay Oshie, then Carter is a much better deal.  Just his cap hit alone would be cheaper, not even considering the actual dollars remaining to be paid.

[MAC331]

42 minutes ago, AlbertaBoy12 said:

To answer your question if oshie was willing to sign a good contract I would sign him to play on the flames. But at the same time I dont think 5 years and 5.5 m is a good contract regardless of how good you think oshie is. Hes never been more then a middle 6 player up until this year when his shooting percentage was over 20%, and that kind of contract is how this team is going to get into trouble. Oshie will be 32 going into next season and a 5 year contract is going to get us into trouble. If oshie was really interested in playing with the flames for 2 years at 6 million id be all over that, but 5 years is far too long and will only get us into trouble cap wise. I agree that he would help the team in the short term, I just dont see the fit long term and I dont see him wanting to sign with the flames that badly.

I would prefer someone younger however I don't think in this day and age of fitness we should worry about a contract of 5 years running 31 to 36. If we are willing to pay Frolik and Brouwer 4.5M I fail to see why TJ Oshie isn't worth 5.5M to or team.

[The_People1]

21 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

I would be interested in Carter as well.  RHS that can play C.  Gives flexibility on the top line for faceoffs.  His contract term is a killer though.  If you compare his contract/term to what you likely have to pay Oshie, then Carter is a much better deal.  Just his cap hit alone would be cheaper, not even considering the actual dollars remaining to be paid.

 

I think Carter would be a good for on the top line but when I look at players from the 2003 draft who are slowing down, I feel Carter will soon follow.  We're talking players like Staal, Perry, Vanek, Parise, Backes, Richards, Eriksson, etc.  A few guys are still going strong but time will soon catch up with them.  Like Getzlaf, Bergeron, Pavelski, Kesler, Burns, etc.  If the Flames want to be competitive with their new core for the next 10 years, then we should avoid acquiring these guys.

[JTech780]

16 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

I would prefer someone younger however I don't think in this day and age of fitness we should worry about a contract of 5 years running 31 to 36. If we are willing to pay Frolik and Brouwer 4.5M I fail to see why TJ Oshie isn't worth 5.5M to or team.

 

When I look at the top 25 scorers for each of C, LW and RW there are only 4  guys out of 75 that are over the age of 32. Players might be more fit nowadays but the game keeps getting younger and faster and the drop off for players heading into their mid 30's is quite drastic. The first two years or so of Oshie's deal will be fine, but it's years 3 through 6 that will come back and bite you.

[cross16]

The data will tell you that forward typically peak around mid 20s and remain fairly relevant until about 30 and then the performance starts to fall pretty drastically. Maybe someone like Oshie is the exception maybe he isn't, but to the tune of 6 million it isn't worth the risk to find out. Personally if I were a GM i'd be avoiding anything over 2-3 years with a player who is over the age of 30. I say this all the time but IMO term is you enemy in a cap world. The longer the term, the harder it is to get out from under mistakes.

 

Also why I agree on Carter. Skill set wise, great fit but contract wise no thanks. Not unless the price was very low or they ate some money. Carter in the 4 mill range is probably ok because even as he declines he could still be worth 4mill or so. 

[cross16]

Just in case some where still targeting Price for Gaudreau

 

 

[jjgallow]

5 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

I don't suggest trading Backlund.  I think that would be a mistake right now.  Part of that is because he has 10x more value to the Flames than he would bring back in a trade.  Think of what Jordan Staal brought in a trade; Sutter and Dumoulin.  And Staal had tremendous value across the league.

 

I don't suggest it either, if we're going to lose.  And I agree that's a real possibility.

 

I basically agree with most trades where we win, lol.

 

One way the Backlund trade could be won (and I know nobody has the stomach for this...Yet...)...

 

Next year's NHL Trade deadline:   Backlund for a top 10 pick in the 2018 NHL draft (and some change).   He will be knocking on 29 years old by then.   How you get the top 10 pick?  You just need to find a team that thinks they'll be relevant the next year, but won't be.    Can be done.  Again, with risk involved.

[MAC331]

52 minutes ago, cross16 said:

The data will tell you that forward typically peak around mid 20s and remain fairly relevant until about 30 and then the performance starts to fall pretty drastically. Maybe someone like Oshie is the exception maybe he isn't, but to the tune of 6 million it isn't worth the risk to find out. Personally if I were a GM i'd be avoiding anything over 2-3 years with a player who is over the age of 30. I say this all the time but IMO term is you enemy in a cap world. The longer the term, the harder it is to get out from under mistakes.

 

Also why I agree on Carter. Skill set wise, great fit but contract wise no thanks. Not unless the price was very low or they ate some money. Carter in the 4 mill range is probably ok because even as he declines he could still be worth 4mill or so. 

I really wouldn't have any problem seeing a line of Gaudreau, Monahan and Tkachuk next season. Move Ferland with Bennett and Lazar. We really shouldn't need to go outside the organization for forwards. Defense I would be happy with signing Stone back on. Then figure out who our goalies will be.

[cross16]

2 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

I really wouldn't have any problem seeing a line of Gaudreau, Monahan and Tkachuk next season. Move Ferland with Bennett and Lazar. We really shouldn't need to go outside the organization for forwards. Defense I would be happy with signing Stone back on. Then figure out who our goalies will be.

 

I do not agree.

Flames were in the bottom 10 in Corsi F, Scoring chances F and were 11th from the bottom in goals for from a 5 on 5 perspective. I think the Flames can get improvement from within for sure, but enough to bump them into the top half of the league where I think they need to be? Not likely. I think they need some goals from an external source. From who? your guess is as good as mine. 

[MAC331]

Just now, cross16 said:

 

I do not agree.

Flames were in the bottom 10 in Corsi F, Scoring chances F and were 11th from the bottom in goals for from a 5 on 5 perspective. I think the Flames can get improvement from within for sure, but enough to bump them into the top half of the league where I think they need to be? Not likely. I think they need some goals from an external source. From who? your guess is as good as mine. 

I will chose to disagree with you as I think Tkachuk could really help everyone on that top line excel 5 on 5. I'm not sure what a line of Ferland, Bennett and Lazar produces however I would guess they become another good scoring line for us. If our other two lines provide some serious shut down and contribute with some secondary scoring we should be fine.

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

Also why I agree on Carter. Skill set wise, great fit but contract wise no thanks. Not unless the price was very low or they ate some money. Carter in the 4 mill range is probably ok because even as he declines he could still be worth 4mill or so.

 

The only problem with eating salary is that in his last 3 years of his contract, he makes $3m, $2m, and $2m.  I will ask it this way to avoid confusion; if LA ate $2m in salary, is that actual or cap or both?

 

As far as his skills go, he hasn't slowed down.  He's been consistent the last three years, even this year where the Kings could score if their lives depended on it.  As far as his value in the last 3 years - if he was more or less a plug, you could trade him to a team that needed cap with low salary.  IMHO, he doesn't tail off that much anyway.