Adam Fox

[jjgallow]

8 hours ago, kehatch said:

It's a fair worry given the depth and age of our D in both our system and on the NHL team. Especially considering what just happened with Hickey. But it's at least a year early to worry too much about it.

 

The Flames are the only team that can get him in early. They are also the only team that can burn a year of his ELC. Plus they can trade him if needed. 

 

Prospects take the 4 year free agency out all of the time. But top prospects rarely do. 

 

I would also add that we don't really have a glut at RD.   I would call it a shortage, actually.   I think we've got a bit too much pre-season hype over Hamonic, to be honest.

 

Hamonic's ok.   Hamilton's potentially great.   

 

Two players is still a short list.

[MAC331]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

I would also add that we don't really have a glut at RD.   I would call it a shortage, actually.   I think we've got a bit too much pre-season hype over Hamonic, to be honest.

 

Hamonic's ok.   Hamilton's potentially great.   

 

Two players is still a short list.

I think everyone may be also considering the RHSD aspects a bit to much as some of these LHSD can, should and likely will have to play the RS in Stockton. Andersson and Fox are the ideal quality RHSD for the RS which the team wants ideally. Right now our top 4 provides a good 2 years of stability before the Flames will need to start considering moves to replace any of the top 4. I doubt Stone stays for his full 3 season contract. I think we just drafted Giordano's future replacement in Valimaki.

[kehatch]

Our depth chart on the RD is Hamilton, Hamonic, Stone, Anderson, and then Fox. On the Left we are Giordano, Brodie, Kulak, Kylington, then Valimaki. You can mix that up a bit if your talking upside vs readiness. 

 

Maybe you throw Mattson, Wotherspoon, or Healey on the left side, but they are long shots. Bartowski can also be added there, but he probably doesn't factor in beyond this year. 

 

That's a pretty young and strong group of D up both sides of the ice. If Fox was making his decision to sign vs go back to school for a final year today we might have something to worry about. Fortunately he isn't so this discussion will be more relevant at that time. 

[AlbertaBoy12]

14 hours ago, zima said:

Hey I'm glad you all believe he will stay true to his Draft team like I said before I do as well but just have a feeling he will not.

 

You have said that about almost all our college players, its kinda starting to sound like the boy who cried wolf.

[AlbertaBoy12]

Just now, kehatch said:

That's a pretty young and strong group of D up both sides of the ice. If Fox was making his decision to sign vs go back to school for a final year today we might have something to worry about. Fortunately he isn't so this discussion will be more relevant at that time. 

Honestly I see Fox being a couple years away, and in a couple of years with stone, hamonic coming to the end of the their deals(if they are still here), the opportunity will be there. I dont see any reason why hamilton wont be here long long term, but that leaves 2 D spots open once hamonic and stone leave, one of which may be taken by andersson. If andersson is top 4 ready that doesnt leave much opportunity for fox except on the third pairing, so if he sees himself as a top 4 guy coming out of college it may be a rough situation but who knows.

[kehatch]

7 minutes ago, AlbertaBoy12 said:

Honestly I see Fox being a couple years away, and in a couple of years with stone, hamonic coming to the end of the their deals(if they are still here), the opportunity will be there. I dont see any reason why hamilton wont be here long long term, but that leaves 2 D spots open once hamonic and stone leave, one of which may be taken by andersson. If andersson is top 4 ready that doesnt leave much opportunity for fox except on the third pairing, so if he sees himself as a top 4 guy coming out of college it may be a rough situation but who knows.

 

It's very possible. Which is why I agree the conversation is premature. That said, given we just lost one of our top defensive prospects as an add on in a trade because we weren't able to sign him. So I get why the concern pops up. 

[JTech780]

Fox scares me, and not in the sense of will he or won't he sign, more in the sense that will his offense make up for the deficiencies in his game (skating, defense, size).

 

If his skating and speed really improves than I will be ready to jump on the hype train. From the games I watched last year his skating was lacking, to the point where I would have serious concerns that his offense would translate to the highest level. The skating and size factors are why he was available in the 3rd round to begin with.

[travel_dude]

30 minutes ago, kehatch said:

 

It's very possible. Which is why I agree the conversation is premature. That said, given we just lost one of our top defensive prospects as an add on in a trade because we weren't able to sign him. So I get why the concern pops up. 

 

Hickey had taken a step back in the prospect rankings, but I also think that he wasn't a throw in on a deal.  He was the main piece.  ARI was looking for a lot more than just a 3rd rounder (conditional 2nd), and while I didn't like the cost, it was trading a player from an area of depth.  We didn't have to trade a prospect goalie.  

 

I would also suggest that its only speculation that Hickey was going to go FA next August.  He chose to finish his college degree.  Maybe the conversation with BT suggested otherwise, but we don't know.  

[kehatch]

27 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Hickey had taken a step back in the prospect rankings, but I also think that he wasn't a throw in on a deal.  He was the main piece.  ARI was looking for a lot more than just a 3rd rounder (conditional 2nd), and while I didn't like the cost, it was trading a player from an area of depth.  We didn't have to trade a prospect goalie.  

 

I would also suggest that its only speculation that Hickey was going to go FA next August.  He chose to finish his college degree.  Maybe the conversation with BT suggested otherwise, but we don't know.  

 

You don't have to squint very hard to see that the Flames were concerned that Hickey might not sign after college. They tried to get him sign this season and when he didn't he was quickly traded in a deal that doesn't make sense if he was planning on signing. 

[zima]

3 minutes ago, kehatch said:

 

You don't have to squint very hard to see that the Flames were concerned that Hickey might not sign after college. They tried to get him sign this season and when he didn't he was quickly traded in a deal that doesn't make sense if he was planning on signing. 

My thoughts exactly even though we have a ton of D we would never give up a Pros that is a possible top D unless you know something

[travel_dude]

7 minutes ago, kehatch said:

 

You don't have to squint very hard to see that the Flames were concerned that Hickey might not sign after college. They tried to get him sign this season and when he didn't he was quickly traded in a deal that doesn't make sense if he was planning on signing. 

 

He chose to return to college for his final year.  He had a lacklustre year for counting stats.  I'm not sure that he was doing anything more than wanting an extra year to improve enough to turn heads.  I don't scout his games, so it's just as likely that the Flames felt his game would never become more than AHL than it was he wouldn't sign with them.  Perhaps they felt that Kylington was a far better prospect, or that he would never be any better than Kulak.

 

Doesn't really matter.  If he goes the UFA route, it's just as likely because of who owns his rights now.

[zima]

I guess you never know Oilers could end up with him I bet the conditional 2 is if Hickey goes the UFA route

[cross16]

1 minute ago, zima said:

I guess you never know Oilers could end up with him I bet the conditional 2 is if Hickey goes the UFA route

 

Has to do with whether or not the Flames make the playoffs. 

[zima]

Ok so if the flames make the playoffs but has nothing to do with smith say he got hurt half way through the season are we still on the hook for the second?

[jjgallow]

2 hours ago, kehatch said:

 

You don't have to squint very hard to see that the Flames were concerned that Hickey might not sign after college. They tried to get him sign this season and when he didn't he was quickly traded in a deal that doesn't make sense if he was planning on signing. 

 

If the above is true, then Zima does have a bit of a point in the comparison.  I was unaware that the Hickey trade may have somewhat been relevant to his willingness to sign.  That being said, they are still two very different prospects and situations.  I remain unconcerned.

 

Hickey is likely not ready for the NHL yet, and even if he is, it will likely be in a supportive role.

 

Adam Fox is a more high calibre, high risk, high reward kind of prospect.    IF he reaches his potential, it will likely happen sooner, and be more obvious as early as this coming season or his third season.   And we would be looking at him developing into the top two lines, being a core player for an NHL team.

 

Given that difference, I still see the chance of having an issue with Adam Fox being very remote.  Even if he chose not to sign, the Flames would likely know this in his 2nd or 3rd season and have a Lot of time to get full value for him (or more) in a trade.    And I don't see why there would be an issue.   The Flames Still have a shortage at RD.  He could easily slide into a 3/4 role for his first year.    And from there, likely trade places with Hamonic (who, IMHO, isn't a true top 2 D anyway).   The only barrier here for Adam Fox would be taking over Hamilton for that #1 D position someday.   That problem is a minimum of 3 years out, and an EXTREMELY lofty problem to project at this stage.   And it could easily be solved by a trade at that time, or if both players were willing to accept a 1A/1B type role at RD.   I just don't see any of these outcomes as bad for Fox, or the Flames.

 

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

If the above is true, then Zima does have a bit of a point in the comparison.  I was unaware that the Hickey trade may have somewhat been relevant to his willingness to sign.  That being said, they are still two very different prospects and situations.  I remain unconcerned.

 

Hickey is likely not ready for the NHL yet, and even if he is, it will likely be in a supportive role.

 

Adam Fox is a more high calibre, high risk, high reward kind of prospect.    IF he reaches his potential, it will likely happen sooner, and be more obvious as early as this coming season or his third season.   And we would be looking at him developing into the top two lines, being a core player for an NHL team.

 

Given that difference, I still see the chance of having an issue with Adam Fox being very remote.  Even if he chose not to sign, the Flames would likely know this in his 2nd or 3rd season and have a Lot of time to get full value for him (or more) in a trade.    And I don't see why there would be an issue.   The Flames Still have a shortage at RD.  He could easily slide into a 3/4 role for his first year.    And from there, likely trade places with Hamonic (who, IMHO, isn't a true top 2 D anyway).   The only barrier here for Adam Fox would be taking over Hamilton for that #1 D position someday.   That problem is a minimum of 3 years out, and an EXTREMELY lofty problem to project at this stage.   And it could easily be solved by a trade at that time, or if both players were willing to accept a 1A/1B type role at RD.   I just don't see any of these outcomes as bad for Fox, or the Flames.

 

 

If we still had Hamonic and Dougie by the time he signs, I could actually see him replacing Brodie if he has that ceiling.  Reason I say that is due to the type of game he brings.  Brodie-Fox may have offense up the wazoo, but they lack a heavy game.      

[cross16]

2 hours ago, zima said:

Ok so if the flames make the playoffs but has nothing to do with smith say he got hurt half way through the season are we still on the hook for the second?

 

Correct. Only condition is whether or not the Flames make the playoffs. Does not relate to Smith's play or Hickey signing (at least has not been reported as such)

[jjgallow]

2 hours ago, travel_dude said:

If we still had Hamonic and Dougie by the time he signs, I could actually see him replacing Brodie if he has that ceiling.  Reason I say that is due to the type of game he brings.  Brodie-Fox may have offense up the wazoo, but they lack a heavy game.      

 

I see what you mean in terms of the heavy game.   However, IMHO I really think we're over-hyping Hamonic considerably right now.    Brodie >>>>>>>> Hamonic, heavy game or no heavy game.

 

So I would suspect Hamonic would be first to be surpassed.     With the shortage of true Right Handed shot D-men, it would never make sense from an asset management perspective to play them on the Left side.    If that's what it comes down to, a trade would probably realize more value.   Which intuitively would put Hamonic on the block, if all 3 were really playing top 2 caliber (which I doubt will happen).  

 

As Giordano gets older and Brodie becomes our top LD, I Agree that Could present a presence problem which Adam Fox would not help with.   But I don't think it would come down to a RD replacing Brodie.  It would come down to finding a replacement for Giordano.  Which, from a presence point of view, would likely never be Brodie.   Maybe Valimaki in a perfect world, if he developed fast enough.  More likely through either trade, or via Giordano never aging (which we're all hoping for).

 

Of course, this is all hypotheticals on top of hypotheticals.  I think the important part is that the Flames clearly have ample room for him to develop.

[cross16]

I view Fox as a project and he's 3-4 years away from being an NHL calibre dman, if he gets there at all, between the improvement he needs to make with his skating, putting on weight, and defensive D zone detail. There is no way the Flames are going to be able to keep Gio-Brodie- Hamilton and Hamonic under contract in 3-4 years when 3 of them are up for contract so there will be opportunity and if Fox is that good he'll force his way in there anyway.

 

The only reason to worry about losing Fox is if he wants to be somewhere else and because the Flames have zero control over that, and it's pretty rare as well, it makes zero sense to worry about it. 

 

I am also not of the opinion that they traded Hickey because they were scared of losing him and Treliving was very quick to point that out as well. I get the whole "don't take things at face value" but usually when GMs trade a player under those circumstances I find they usually like to hint the player wanted it as it's a built it excuse if things go south. I think he was the d prospect they were most comfortable putting in the trade and that's why he was dealt which makes sense when you stack him up against Kylington, Andersson, Fox etc. I like Hickey more than some but even I can admit it makes sense to deal him before you deal Andersson/Fox based on upside alone Even Kylington, who i'm not a huge fan of, is a worrisome trade because of how good a skater he is. 

 

[travel_dude]

5 minutes ago, cross16 said:

I am also not of the opinion that they traded Hickey because they were scared of losing him and Treliving was very quick to point that out as well. I get the whole "don't take things at face value" but usually when GMs trade a player under those circumstances I find they usually like to hint the player wanted it as it's a built it excuse if things go south. I think he was the d prospect they were most comfortable putting in the trade and that's why he was dealt which makes sense when you stack him up against Kylington, Andersson, Fox etc. I like Hickey more than some but even I can admit it makes sense to deal him before you deal Andersson/Fox based on upside alone Even Kylington, who i'm not a huge fan of, is a worrisome trade because of how good a skater he is. 

 

I agree.  I was concerned that Hickey wasn't progressing.  Had we traded Kylington, Andersson or Fox for a 35 year old goalie, I would have lost it.  Not happy we used Hickey in that trade either, but that is mostly because I thought we may have been able to use him on a longer term need, like RW.

[zima]

33 minutes ago, cross16 said:

I view Fox as a project and he's 3-4 years away from being an NHL calibre dman, if he gets there at all,

Come on the kid had 9 points and dominated in all aspects of the game. I don't know what he can do to gain your respect but to put up 9 points as a D has got to account for something I realize he started mostly in the offensive end but so did alot of other players who else got nine points from the back end?

Adam Fox, D, U.S. (Calgary Flames)

He was used solely in an offensive role at the 2017 WJC but showed during camp he can also be relied on defensively and could slide into the all-situation role Charlie McAvoy (Boston Bruins) filled for the U.S. He had nine points (three goals, six assists) and was a plus-3 in five games.

"He's taking it to another level," Motzko said. "Last year he was a designated hitter on our team, coming off the bench from an offensive standpoint and making plays for us. He's at a whole other level for us right now. … He's comfortable now playing the game in any situation for 60 minutes. That's a pretty special player. We all see it from the offensive side but he can handle tough minutes too."

[cross16]

3 minutes ago, zima said:

Come on the kid had 9 points and dominated in all aspects of the game. I don't know what he can do to gain your respect but to put up 9 points as a D has got to account for something I realize he started mostly in the offensive end but so did alot of other players who else got nine points from the back end?

 

Didn't realize saying a 19 year old dman is 3-4 years away was such an insult. Especially considering in the same post I comment their is high upside there. 

[jjgallow]

32 minutes ago, cross16 said:

I view Fox as a project and he's 3-4 years away from being an NHL calibre dman, if he gets there at all, between the improvement he needs to make with his skating, putting on weight, and defensive D zone detail. There is no way the Flames are going to be able to keep Gio-Brodie- Hamilton and Hamonic under contract in 3-4 years when 3 of them are up for contract so there will be opportunity and if Fox is that good he'll force his way in there anyway.

5 minutes ago, zima said:

Come on the kid had 9 points and dominated in all aspects of the game. I don't know what he can do to gain your respect but to put up 9 points as a D has got to account for something I realize he started mostly in the offensive end but so did alot of other players who else got nine points from the back end?

 

 

I can see both sides to this.    On one hand, yeah.  He's likely 3-4 years out from overtaking any of our current core D.      

 

But 3-4 years before becoming an NHL calibre D-man?   Maybe a tad pessimistic.  I'd go 2-3.    He's not big, but he's not tiny.

 

I do agree that he currently has Huge holes in his game.  And I do agree that, when looking at Schultz, 3-4 years doesn't seem pessimistic.  But Schultz had to contend with the Oilers system.   I think it's fair to say that Schultz's development path epitomizes the most pessimistic path for him to realize his full potential.

 

Here's my problem with it:  If (and I mean IF) Adam Fox makes another offensive leap in his game, it will start to look ridiculous having him in US College.    This became an issue with Gaudreau too, but Gaudreau had the size issues to justify the delay.    Far less so here.   Nor do I see him leaving college early for the AHL.

 

But yeah, the longer he's in college the better, in terms of improving holes in his game.    No question about it. 

[kehatch]

Haynes: http://www.flamesfrom80feet.ca/2017/06/examining-smith-trade-eight-points-to.html

 

Quote

Hickey was a third round pick in 2014 whose value rose initially. But where he slotted in comparison to the likes of fellow D prospects Rasmus Andersson, Oliver Kylington and Adam Fox was subject to debate. I've heard whispers that some within the Flames front office weren't as high on him as they once were.

In returning to Boston University for a final season, the Flames faced the very real possibility of losing Hickey for nothing if not signed next summer before Aug. 15.

Knowing that Calgary badly wanted to sign him this off-season but couldn't get it done, it's not a reach to suggest next year with no more leverage and unrestricted free agency just a few months away, it would not have gotten done either.

 

Francis: http://calgaryherald.com/sports/hockey/nhl/calgary-flames/eric-francis-flames-gm-brad-treliving-nails-it-with-mike-smith-trade

 

Quote

Hickey, who resided behind Oliver Kylington, Rasmus Andersson and Adam Fox amongst Calgary blue-line prospects, will play his final year of college hockey and could then very well become a free agent anyway.

 

That is just a sampling. Maybe it is just the media trying to make sense of what would otherwise be over payment.  But the chatter of Anderson not wanting to sign after Calgary failed to sign him in the summer had started well before the trade.  

[JTech780]

28 minutes ago, zima said:

Come on the kid had 9 points and dominated in all aspects of the game. I don't know what he can do to gain your respect but to put up 9 points as a D has got to account for something I realize he started mostly in the offensive end but so did alot of other players who else got nine points from the back end?

Adam Fox, D, U.S. (Calgary Flames)

He was used solely in an offensive role at the 2017 WJC but showed during camp he can also be relied on defensively and could slide into the all-situation role Charlie McAvoy (Boston Bruins) filled for the U.S. He had nine points (three goals, six assists) and was a plus-3 in five games.

"He's taking it to another level," Motzko said. "Last year he was a designated hitter on our team, coming off the bench from an offensive standpoint and making plays for us. He's at a whole other level for us right now. … He's comfortable now playing the game in any situation for 60 minutes. That's a pretty special player. We all see it from the offensive side but he can handle tough minutes too."

 

I can't speak for Cross, but from my standpoint, for everything that Fox does well he has an equal amount of questions in his game.

 

Points are great, but they don't mean a whole lot at lower levels or summer tournaments if the player has serious question marks. 

 

Now I haven't seen him play this summer, but having watched him play with Harvard a few time slots last year, I saw a player who has questionable skating, he seem disinterested in the game once he was on defense, and I didn't see much battle in his game. On offense he was a completely different player, great vision, and had a great ability to read the play.

 

Now if he can improve the skating ability alone I would be much more excited about him as a prospect, it's hard to be an offensive player and smaller when you don't have elite skating, and last time I watched Fox his skating was average at best.