What Is Best For Matthew Tkachuk

[travel_dude]

14 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Can they not offer 4 years?  Intentionally make it the most unpleasant situation to match.  Buy zero UFA years.

 

Sorry, I was talking about how the offer is calculated (max number of years).  If you want a predatory type OS, then why not.  It screws up the offering team as much if the Flames balk.  The point is to make an offer you can live with if the other teams balks.  Otherwise it sets you up for a backlash from many teams.

 

The way the OS is set up is to prevent OS's not make them happen.  

[imeubu]

Love the idea of using math.  Lot's of different ways to do that.  Here's the one that math speak says is most valid.  Let's call it "smearing" (sometimes referred to as "smoothing"). 

 

Each chess piece has individual value and that carries more "weight" when the game has fewer pieces.  But when there are more pieces involved individual value is "smeared" (because that value is being distributed across all needs).  Much better ROI these days in playing "cap" than hockey.  Even Gretsky needed his posse.  The "value" or "utility" of any individual these days has become even more... way more... about (if not all about) "fit" than it was when Wayne played.  Ham and eggs... peanut butter and jam.

 

The Boston University collage/group got missed.  There have been others.  Montreal Canadians pretty much built their whole system on "culture".  Look at the Russian connectivity in TBL.  Band of Brothers baby... and BTW... the math supports it big time.

[redfire11]

2 hours ago, imeubu said:

Love the idea of using math.  Lot's of different ways to do that.  Here's the one that math speak says is most valid.  Let's call it "smearing" (sometimes referred to as "smoothing"). 

 

Each chess piece has individual value and that carries more "weight" when the game has fewer pieces.  But when there are more pieces involved individual value is "smeared" (because that value is being distributed across all needs).  Much better ROI these days in playing "cap" than hockey.  Even Gretsky needed his posse.  The "value" or "utility" of any individual these days has become even more... way more... about (if not all about) "fit" than it was when Wayne played

Agree to an extent. Hockey like chess needs to be played 3 moves, 3 days, 3 years in advance. But when you compare the 2 it still comes down to positioning. In the Tkachuk case could we get 2 players that would equal or better his play for the same dollars. Like having a queen or 2 rooks; same price but the 2 rooks have the advantage. The key is moving your pawns (prospects)  down to get as many queens as possible and most importantly paying them like rooks. LOL

[Cowtownguy]

2 hours ago, redfire11 said:

Agree to an extent. Hockey like chess needs to be played 3 moves, 3 days, 3 years in advance. But when you compare the 2 it still comes down to positioning. In the Tkachuk case could we get 2 players that would equal or better his play for the same dollars. Like having a queen or 2 rooks; same price but the 2 rooks have the advantage. The key is moving your pawns (prospects)  down to get as many queens as possible and most importantly paying them like rooks. LOL

You lifted that from a Playboy you read long ago, didn't you?

[redfire11]

8 minutes ago, Cowtownguy said:

You lifted that from a Playboy you read long ago, didn't you?

There's reading material

[imeubu]

5 hours ago, redfire11 said:

Agree to an extent. Hockey like chess needs to be played 3 moves, 3 days, 3 years in advance. But when you compare the 2 it still comes down to positioning. In the Tkachuk case could we get 2 players that would equal or better his play for the same dollars. Like having a queen or 2 rooks; same price but the 2 rooks have the advantage. The key is moving your pawns (prospects)  down to get as many queens as possible and most importantly paying them like rooks. LOL

You've got it.  It's normally conceived (I think) by GMs that staffing is basically Game Theory (and it can be under certain circumstances) but it really is not.  Building a franchise is not done competing for assets held in some Zero Sum pot.  There are so many more variables.  Math clearly says when there is a significant likelihood that extraneous variables are yet to emerge... the utility of smearing resources (better to build your attack using rooks, knights and Bishops) will over a season, a series and/or a dynasty be far greater.  So the better strategy and THE way to convert energy (cap) into force (team performance) is rolling 4 high energy, hard working honest lines..

[Cowtownguy]

I think that Tkachuk is injured and should be rested. There is no way someone consistently displays high ice hockey IQ and then loses it like that. I think that he is unable to get into the difficult areas he usually works with. 

[cross16]

I'm starting to wonder if this is contract related. This slide seems to have started right around the time Francis said Tkachuk and his camp were opening negotiations with the Flames and then it's continued through the Mathews contract news that has led to a ton of questions around Tkachuk and what he plans on doing. 

 

Every player goes through slumps so I don't want to panic or dump on him. He's a terrific player and he will be again soon but sometimes things like that get to you especially if it's your first major negotiation. 

[MAC331]

20 minutes ago, cross16 said:

I'm starting to wonder if this is contract related. This slide seems to have started right around the time Francis said Tkachuk and his camp were opening negotiations with the Flames and then it's continued through the Mathews contract news that has led to a ton of questions around Tkachuk and what he plans on doing. 

 

Every player goes through slumps so I don't want to panic or dump on him. He's a terrific player and he will be again soon but sometimes things like that get to you especially if it's your first major negotiation. 

There is no doubt his play has dropped off lately. He use to be automatic almost in the SO. Regular sees him passing when he should be shooting, definitely fighting some confidence issues which we haven't seen before. I have said this before and still think people are getting way ahead of themselves with Tkachuk. He is and will be a very good player for us but I would say this next contract should be between 6.5m and 7.50M AAV.

[The_People1]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

I'm starting to wonder if this is contract related. This slide seems to have started right around the time Francis said Tkachuk and his camp were opening negotiations with the Flames and then it's continued through the Mathews contract news that has led to a ton of questions around Tkachuk and what he plans on doing. 

 

Every player goes through slumps so I don't want to panic or dump on him. He's a terrific player and he will be again soon but sometimes things like that get to you especially if it's your first major negotiation. 

 

Exactly what I've been thinking too.

 

As soon as Matthews signed, Tkachuk was interviewed to be saying he knows where he stands because Matthews set the bar.  And of course, his buddy Marner is in negotiations right now too. 

 

What's been telling is Tkachuk has been playing terrible since.

[MAC331]

6 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Exactly what I've been thinking too.

 

As soon as Matthews signed, Tkachuk was interviewed to be saying he knows where he stands because Matthews set the bar.  And of course, his buddy Marner is in negotiations right now too. 

 

What's been telling is Tkachuk has been playing terrible since.

This contract discussion will be difficult if he thinks he is in the Mathews or Marner category .

[travel_dude]

29 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Exactly what I've been thinking too.

 

As soon as Matthews signed, Tkachuk was interviewed to be saying he knows where he stands because Matthews set the bar.  And of course, his buddy Marner is in negotiations right now too. 

 

What's been telling is Tkachuk has been playing terrible since.

 

In theory, he should be playing better, not dragging his butt out there.  Regardless of any discussion his agent is having or any low-ball offer, he is playing for a new contract.  The NHL has a bad memory.  What have you done for me lately.

 

I do think you need to mix up the lines and play him wherever he can get his play going.  Seeing as Backlund isn't helping, play him on the 3rd line.  Take away the defensive part of his responsibilities and focus on offense.  Le Bennett get buried in the D-zone and worry about that on it's own.  If Neal is good to go, play Matty with Janko and Neal.  If Neal is out, put Mangiapane up there.  Mange's not a heavy player, but at least he and Janko have speed and chemistry.  Allows Matty to build some offense with them.  

[cross16]

36 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

In theory, he should be playing better, not dragging his butt out there.  Regardless of any discussion his agent is having or any low-ball offer, he is playing for a new contract.  The NHL has a bad memory.  What have you done for me lately.

 

 

I'ts very common to have players struggle if they are having a tough negotiation.

 

Auston Mathews was in a bit of a slump right before his deal got announced too. It can weight on you, especially when it's your first one. 

[JTech780]

I wonder if Treliving, like Dubas did with Matthews, is trying to get this extension done before the deadline so he has an idea of how much cap is going to be tied up to Tkachuk next year, and then he can plan accordingly at the deadline and the draft.

 

Tkachuk's signing basically holds up any other plans for next year.

[MAC331]

52 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

I wonder if Treliving, like Dubas did with Matthews, is trying to get this extension done before the deadline so he has an idea of how much cap is going to be tied up to Tkachuk next year, and then he can plan accordingly at the deadline and the draft.

 

Tkachuk's signing basically holds up any other plans for next year.

It shouldn't effect any decisions leading into this TDL or the draft. I think for the most part our core is assembled and I highly doubt we intend on adding a Tavares type contract. Tkachuk is obviously part of our required core but if he as 8M plus on his mind he may be playing somewhere else.

[conundrumed]

2 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

It shouldn't effect any decisions leading into this TDL or the draft. I think for the most part our core is assembled and I highly doubt we intend on adding a Tavares type contract. Tkachuk is obviously part of our required core but if he as 8M plus on his mind he may be playing somewhere else.

But it does if BT's looking at a player under contract for next year.

Plus come July 1st there are some monster FA's, so best to make your bed early and have a clear plan.

[cross16]

It wouldn't just be a Tavares style deal though. The Flames are going to have to clear out bodies just to fit Tkachuk in next year. So if they are looking at adding anyone at the the TDL this year that costs over 2mill AAV it would be important to know what Tkachuk is going to cost.

 

I think people need to understand how tight things are going to be next year with the Flames cap. 

[MAC331]

3 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

But it does if BT's looking at a player under contract for next year.

Plus come July 1st there are some monster FA's, so best to make your bed early and have a clear plan.

Should he be looking at a player with remaining contract now, I'm not sold on it. I see a number of decisions being required this offseason including Tkachuk's contract. This team IMO could still be built very well from within and don't see the need for an "monster" FA required.

[conundrumed]

Looking at Tampa is just wow. Kucherov's $9.5 kix in next year. What a deal by Tampa. $9.5 for the league pt leader.

They have to re-sign Point. I can see their D getting a lot thinner.

I love Tampa as a city, imagine being a fan there rn, you never expect to lose.

That team is unreal.

[MAC331]

2 minutes ago, cross16 said:

It wouldn't just be a Tavares style deal though. The Flames are going to have to clear out bodies just to fit Tkachuk in next year. So if they are looking at adding anyone at the the TDL this year that costs over 2mill AAV it would be important to know what Tkachuk is going to cost.

 

I think people need to understand how tight things are going to be next year with the Flames cap. 

You are referring to adds with continuing contracts ? If so that comes into the equations yes if we add a couple of UFAs now then no.

This offseason could see all of Neal, Frolik, Brodie, Stone and Smith gone which is a lot of salary off the books.

[conundrumed]

2 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

You are referring to adds with continuing contracts ? If so that comes into the equations yes if we add a couple of UFAs now then no.

This offseason could see all of Neal, Frolik, Brodie, Stone and Smith gone which is a lot of salary off the books.

That's all good and well, but regarding Tkachuk, it's still better to get ahead of it. If you're losing Neal, Frolik, Brodie full contracts, great.

But you can't rely on that. If you've got Tkachuk under contract, at least you know where you stand.

Last thing I want is another September signing. It puts the handcuffs on in this instance.

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

 

I'ts very common to have players struggle if they are having a tough negotiation.

 

Auston Mathews was in a bit of a slump right before his deal got announced too. It can weight on you, especially when it's your first one. 

 

But with Matthews, he was also injured earlier.

So, there's that.

 

I get the pressure, but I'm seeing more frustration than anything else.  It's like his body isn't able to do what he wants and he gets mad and drags his feet along.

[travel_dude]

Maybe the thread should be called "What's wtong with Matthew Tkachuk?".

Seriously, is he injured in some way, shape or form?

He doesn't look as engaged.

Was there a game in recent weeks that he let the ice for a bit?

Can;t place my finger on it.

The first SJS game he was a beast.

Up to Jan. 19th he was a points machine.

 

Then again, the 2nd line went cold the same time as Matty.

Coincidental, but interesting.

[CalgarySTL]

9 hours ago, travel_dude said:

Maybe the thread should be called "What's wtong with Matthew Tkachuk?".

Seriously, is he injured in some way, shape or form?

He doesn't look as engaged.

Was there a game in recent weeks that he let the ice for a bit?

Can;t place my finger on it.

The first SJS game he was a beast.

Up to Jan. 19th he was a points machine.

 

Then again, the 2nd line went cold the same time as Matty.

Coincidental, but interesting.

I wondered the same thing. I'm not sure what game it was.... was before Christmas though, I thought he may have hurt his shoulder (i think). Like you said, hasn't been as engaged "rat mode", hasn't fought & the points have slowed down a bit. Definitely doesn't look like himself.

Then again, I remember the brass talked to him & asked him to tone down the antics... am i wrong?

[flames-fan-in-jets-land]

2 minutes ago, CalgarySTL said:

I wondered the same thing. I'm not sure what game it was.... was before Christmas though, I thought he may have hurt his shoulder (i think). Like you said, hasn't been as engaged "rat mode", hasn't fought & the points have slowed down a bit. Definitely doesn't look like himself.

Then again, I remember the brass talked to him & asked him to tone down the antics... am i wrong?

I sure the hell lope not. His "antics" were what alot of players focused on instead of the game itself. Plus it's not like his PM's were way up there. Right now he has less than Gio and Bennett. Also less than his brother and about the same as Dylan Larkin and Anders Lee. I'm guessing injury or contract distractions.