Flames Defense

[jjgallow]

If Justin Schultz can make it..anyone can make it

lol..

[travel_dude]

They have less chance because they're further away. They're good prospects with great potential, but that doesn't always come to fruition. We often look at our prospects in terms of when they'll be in the NHL rather than if. If wasn't so long ago Pat Sieloff was a when rather than an if. 3 years ago, these boards were touting Sven as the Calder winner with 60 plus points. Kylington and/or Anderson may become very good players in the NHL. We will have to wait and see...

 

Seiloff lost an entire year.  Many here said he didn't have the offense to make it, since tough guys had to bring more than just grit.  Sven is finally in a position that he can play an entire season.  He's doing well.

 

Less chance because they are further away?  How does that make sense?  The guys I listed would have looked no better or worse than Kylington or Andersson at that age.  Somehow they all made it.  Brodie had less points in his 20 year old season than Andersson.  He is now on everybody's radar as being one of the top in the league.

[rickross]

I think we have a promising group of young D prospects. There is NHL caliber within Hickey, Kulak, Kylington,Wotherspoon, Andersson. They aren't all guarantees but they are trending in the right direction. They're all still young D so it's only fair to give them time to develop. I'd still say that's our strongest prospect position for potential NHLers.

As for guys like Sieloff, their time is quickly running out. He's already been passed by those mentioned above, it's too bad he was derailed by so many injuries. A team like the Oilers would love to have our prospect pool of defenders right now

[andymo]

Seiloff lost an entire year.  Many here said he didn't have the offense to make it, since tough guys had to bring more than just grit.  Sven is finally in a position that he can play an entire season.  He's doing well.

 

Less chance because they are further away?  How does that make sense?  The guys I listed would have looked no better or worse than Kylington or Andersson at that age.  Somehow they all made it.  Brodie had less points in his 20 year old season than Andersson.  He is now on everybody's radar as being one of the top in the league.

They are further away in their journeys. If all goes as they and we hope, they will make it. Brodie made it. He got his chance after a more highly rated prospect went to Rangers. You wouldn't trade Brodie for Erixon now! Which is a good example of how prospects don't always progress as projected

[travel_dude]

They are further away in their journeys. If all goes as they and we hope, they will make it. Brodie made it. He got his chance after a more highly rated prospect went to Rangers. You wouldn't trade Brodie for Erixon now! Which is a good example of how prospects don't always progress as projected

 

Their age and length of their journeys have little to do with their ceiling.  Most people have Andersson and Hickey as our top D prospects, but we are seeing some good things in Gilmour and Kylington.  Who knows about Gilmour.  Could be another Kulak.

Kylington's biggest hurdle will be playing a pro game is North America.  He's looking better as the season goes on, but could be a top player on the Heat next season.  Spoon is already looking like a 5/6 D-man, and that is after everyone wrote him off.

 

Players like Jones and Ekblad came into the league early on and were able to shine.  Some like Gio and Brodie came out of nowhere or ttok time to develop.

[andymo]

Their age and length of their journeys have little to do with their ceiling. Most people have Andersson and Hickey as our top D prospects, but we are seeing some good things in Gilmour and Kylington. Who knows about Gilmour. Could be another Kulak.

Kylington's biggest hurdle will be playing a pro game is North America. He's looking better as the season goes on, but could be a top player on the Heat next season. Spoon is already looking like a 5/6 D-man, and that is after everyone wrote him off.

Players like Jones and Ekblad came into the league early on and were able to shine. Some like Gio and Brodie came out of nowhere or ttok time to develop.

I am not saying their ceiling or potential is lower. I am saying that they have a lot to do before they reach their ceiling. Not everybody at their stage of developement reaches their perceived ceiling. This is not a criticism. Erixon has so far failed to get close to his perceived ceiling whilst Brodie has exceeded his. Ras and Oli have the potential to be top NHL D men but they need to develop into that.

[jjgallow]

So here's the thing....we don't know.    And, it's going to take some time before we do.  Probably, a lot of time.

 

Time is the big issue.

 

Anyone in our prospect pool Could turn out, surprise us, etcetera.

 

But in the meantime, all we can do is project.  

 

I think out of Kylington, Andersson, and all our other D prospects, ONE of them may emerge as top 4. 

 

More importantly when:  At roughly the age of 24.    4-5 years from now.

 

 

That...to me...is too long to wait.   Because I think our Stanley cup window opens about 2 years earlier.

 

 

So.....even if One of them develops into that role, we are cutting it Very close.  Counting on either early development, or for Gio to sustain his performance much longer than average.

 

To expect Two to develop, imho, is just simply against the odds.  Possible but unrealistic.

 

 

That leaves us with a hole in our top 4.   IMHO, it's the most important thing to fill.

 

 

p,s....other than goal.  But first, imho, we have to evaluate what we already have in net.  I don't think we know that yet.  Not with Ortio, not with Gillies.   Evaluation of our existing goaltending prospects should be a top priority.   And finding another top D prospect or young player, the other top priority.   Last, very last, would be RW.

[MAC331]

So here's the thing....we don't know.    And, it's going to take some time before we do.  Probably, a lot of time.

 

Time is the big issue.

 

Anyone in our prospect pool Could turn out, surprise us, etcetera.

 

But in the meantime, all we can do is project.  

 

I think out of Kylington, Andersson, and all our other D prospects, ONE of them may emerge as top 4. 

 

More importantly when:  At roughly the age of 24.    4-5 years from now.

 

 

That...to me...is too long to wait.   Because I think our Stanley cup window opens about 2 years earlier.

 

 

So.....even if One of them develops into that role, we are cutting it Very close.  Counting on either early development, or for Gio to sustain his performance much longer than average.

 

To expect Two to develop, imho, is just simply against the odds.  Possible but unrealistic.

 

 

That leaves us with a hole in our top 4.   IMHO, it's the most important thing to fill.

 

 

p,s....other than goal.  But first, imho, we have to evaluate what we already have in net.  I don't think we know that yet.  Not with Ortio, not with Gillies.   Evaluation of our existing goaltending prospects should be a top priority.   And finding another top D prospect or young player, the other top priority.   Last, very last, would be RW.

You are entitled to your own way of thinking.

[robrob1974]

If we are considered contenders in 3-5 years that will be awesome!

I think we have a great base, but it's going to be tough.

Arizona and Edmonton are going to be really good too. Vancouver has a few decent young pieces.

In the East I think there are a few teams that will be there too, like Buffalo and Florida.

I think that 3 years is a perfect time for our D prospects to get acclimated to the NHL. And then, a year or so after hopefully contend. 5 years could be perfect. But then, I guess Geaudreau will be 27 and out of his prime.

[MAC331]

If we are considered contenders in 3-5 years that will be awesome!

I think we have a great base, but it's going to be tough.

Arizona and Edmonton are going to be really good too. Vancouver has a few decent young pieces.

In the East I think there are a few teams that will be there too, like Buffalo and Florida.

I think that 3 years is a perfect time for our D prospects to get acclimated to the NHL. And then, a year or so after hopefully contend. 5 years could be perfect. But then, I guess Geaudreau will be 27 and out of his prime.

I always resist putting your contention in a box so many things can happen within and around you. Remember that many think all you need is a hot goaltender in the playoffs to win a SC. I think if BT gets us the right goalie, this team is primed for consistent contending from 2018/19 onwards.

[jjgallow]

Remember that many think all you need is a hot goaltender in the playoffs to win a SC. 

 

......

 

whhhhat?

[420since1974]

I'd rather the Flames fix the goal-tending situation and find a Top 6 RW, before worrying about a #4 D.

 

There is probably only enough Cap Space to fix one of those issues next season, and IMO goal is the biggest hole.

 

2017/2018 will open the Cap Space required to fill the other two.

[travel_dude]

I'd rather the Flames fix the goal-tending situation and find a Top 6 RW, before worrying about a #4 D.

 

There is probably only enough Cap Space to fix one of those issues next season, and IMO goal is the biggest hole.

 

2017/2018 will open the Cap Space required to fill the other two.

 

It's pretty obvious we have NO goalie for next year.  Nothing else matters before that is solved.

 

We can also develop some players we have, try them out a bit in the position we need to fill, and develop some more.  No point in calling up Poirier to play 8 minutes with Bollig.  Or playing a RHS D-man on LD with Engelland.  We seem to have the market on RHS D-men, but can't seem to unload any?  Wideman can't be traded, but somehow Jultz is worth a 3rd?  Polak?  Weber?  I know, different terms and situations.

[jjgallow]

It's pretty obvious we have NO goalie for next year.  Nothing else matters before that is solved.

 

 

To clarify, we have no #1 goalie.   We have Gillies, we have Ortio, I am sure Hiller would re-sign, and so would Ramo.

 

We have lots of options, just no #1 goalie options.  It's been a problem here since Kipper started to decline, and we've been band-aiding it ever since.

 

 

The first step is finding out what we have.  It has to be.  Ortio, and maybe Gillies too, if he earn the callup.

 

Only when we've actually determined What we have would I feel the need to put a goalie acquisition ahead of a D acquisition.

 

And no matter what position we're talking about, we are rebuilding and we should be acquiring Young prospects, or Very young, established players (ie.., Hamilton).

 

That goes for goaltenders too.  If we do our homework, and determine that we need one.

[travel_dude]

To clarify, we have no #1 goalie.   We have Gillies, we have Ortio, I am sure Hiller would re-sign, and so would Ramo.

 

We have lots of options, just no #1 goalie options.  It's been a problem here since Kipper started to decline, and we've been band-aiding it ever since.

 

 

The first step is finding out what we have.  It has to be.  Ortio, and maybe Gillies too, if he earn the callup.

 

Only when we've actually determined What we have would I feel the need to put a goalie acquisition ahead of a D acquisition.

 

And no matter what position we're talking about, we are rebuilding and we should be acquiring Young prospects, or Very young, established players (ie.., Hamilton).

 

That goes for goaltenders too.  If we do our homework, and determine that we need one.

 

To restate it.  We have NO goalies signed.  We have Gillies ready to go back to the AHL.  Nobody else is a Flame beyond July 1st.  If Ortio doesn't get at least another 9 starts (not sure the exact number), he's UFA.  Even if he is, he has to have a QO, which the Flames may not choose to exercise or Ortio could choose not to agree.

 

So again, we have NO NHL goalies.  We may have a backup if he is signed.  That's it.

[jjgallow]

To restate it.  We have NO goalies signed.  

 

Ok, so ...we do.  Gillies is signed for 3 years.  So...yeah.  we do.

 

awkward....

[travel_dude]

Ok, so ...we do.  Gillies is signed for 3 years.  So...yeah.  we do.

 

awkward....

 

Quibbling are we?  Is Ortio signed?  Is Hiller signed?  Is Ramo signed?  What NHL goalie are you talking about?

If you think Gillies is a NHL goalie, then fine.  We have a goalie signed.

[MAC331]

I like the position we have being wide open to deal on a goalie or two. Ortio will either play himself into another contract here or he won't.

[kehatch]

To clarify, we have no #1 goalie. We have Gillies, we have Ortio, I am sure Hiller would re-sign, and so would Ramo.

We have lots of options, just no #1 goalie options. It's been a problem here since Kipper started to decline, and we've been band-aiding it ever since.

The first step is finding out what we have. It has to be. Ortio, and maybe Gillies too, if he earn the callup.

Only when we've actually determined What we have would I feel the need to put a goalie acquisition ahead of a D acquisition.

And no matter what position we're talking about, we are rebuilding and we should be acquiring Young prospects, or Very young, established players (ie.., Hamilton).

That goes for goaltenders too. If we do our homework, and determine that we need one.

This debate won't end because you obvious believe the Flames should take the sink or swim approach. Roll the dice and see where the end up. Better that then spending assets to acquire someone else until we are certain we don't have an in house solution.

Meanwhile most everyone else doesn't agree with that. Ortio hasn't earned our confidence in the short term and Gilles/MacDonald are a ways off.

Personally I think your approach is impractical. It's the type of approach you take once you have an established backup in net who is earning starts. You don't take it when the guy your talking about hasn't been good 80 percent of the season and who lost the starting job in the AHL.

What I don't understand is why you are so against the idea of brining on a young goalie to tandem with Ortio. You have come up with extreme scenarios of trading the farm or bankrupting the cap if we go that route. But in reality we see teams successfully trade for a young starter all of the time.

If you do that and Ortio is spectacular in tandem then you have a really great problem on your hands. If you don't do that and Ortio is terrible next season you have a really bad problem on your hands.

Poor goaltending has derailed more rebuilds then anything else. It would be irresponsible for Treliving to not at least attempt to address the situation. If the right target isn't available then maybe he is forced to sign Ramo on a short term deal. If Ortio earns a contract he can play tandem. But that's a plan B. There is no reasonable plan C of Ortio and Joe Backup in my opinion.

[cross16]

To add some numbers perspective to this discussion. JJ i know you love your numbers 

 

Current the Flames are dead last in Save percentage at .895. Yes, Deal last in the entire league...

Shots against, they are 12th in the league. 18 teams give up more shots per game than the Flames...

 

If the Flames had a team save percentage of .915 ( about league average) It would equate to about 30 or so less goals this season. 

Goal against right now, Flames sit in 5th last at 188 goals allowed. With this math, 158 would put them 17th in the league in goals against. I don't think i'm overshooting by saying if you cut 30 goals off their totals you are probably look at at least another 4-5 wins (and I think thats conservative). 4-5 wins and 8-10 points puts them right in the playoff picture. 

 

I'm not pinning this all on goaltending, poor special teams has been a huge killer and needs to improve, posession needs to get better, but at the same time when you are 12 in the league in shots against but dead last in save % that's too large a discrepency to not suggest that goaltending is a huge factor. IMO, there is zero question what the biggest need for the Flames is. 

[darth_henning]

Realistically, Ortio COULD be a good NHL backup goalie, IF he becomes consistent. 

 

 

Gillies SHOULD be an NHL Starter. MacDonald MAY be an NHL starter. Both of them are 2 years off at the least. 

 

 

Therefore we need a starting goalie in the short term. Were Ramo not injured I'd take the chance since he's put up around league average numbers after we ditched the 3-goalie elbowing-storm. 

 

But he's had a major injury which could be a problem in the future. 

 

We need about a 4-5 million starter who can put up league average for 2-3 years till Gillies is ready. Keep Ortio as backup and see if he can really fill the role. 

 

Who that is I don't know. 

[andymo]

Wotherspoon back to Stockton. Emergency loan cancelled due to Kokipakka's arrival. We have 2 call-ups left!

[MAC331]

Realistically, Ortio COULD be a good NHL backup goalie, IF he becomes consistent. 

 

 

Gillies SHOULD be an NHL Starter. MacDonald MAY be an NHL starter. Both of them are 2 years off at the least. 

 

 

Therefore we need a starting goalie in the short term. Were Ramo not injured I'd take the chance since he's put up around league average numbers after we ditched the 3-goalie elbowing-storm. 

 

But he's had a major injury which could be a problem in the future. 

 

We need about a 4-5 million starter who can put up league average for 2-3 years till Gillies is ready. Keep Ortio as backup and see if he can really fill the role. 

 

Who that is I don't know. 

I don't think you can afford to look at any situation the way you are with prospects. If BT can fix the goalie situation this offseason with anyone who can be a #1 Goalie you do it. If Gillies never sees action with our team because we have someone else doing the job you have a tradeable asset hopefully.

[darth_henning]

Personally I think that bringing up someone we drafted to play a core role on a cup team is better than bringing in an outsider, unless there's a significant upside difference in favor of bringing in someone else. 

 

But that's just personal preference. 

 

More importantly, we can only really afford 4-5 mil on a goalie starter this year if we're going to re-sign the players we need and stay under the cap. So we're a tad limited on options there. We can't go after a Stanley-cup caliber tender simply due to cost. So a stop-gap is really all we can manage at this time. 

[MAC331]

Personally I think that bringing up someone we drafted to play a core role on a cup team is better than bringing in an outsider, unless there's a significant upside difference in favor of bringing in someone else. 

 

But that's just personal preference. 

 

More importantly, we can only really afford 4-5 mil on a goalie starter this year if we're going to re-sign the players we need and stay under the cap. So we're a tad limited on options there. We can't go after a Stanley-cup caliber tender simply due to cost. So a stop-gap is really all we can manage at this time. 

Again I have to disagree. What if you trade for a Kinkaid NJD who is making 750K for next year and he is fantastic ? There are a few scenerios where you don't have to jump in and pay 5M plus for a top goalie, especially knowing you possibly have an ace in the hole with Gilles. Kinkaid (or someone else) could become that goalie that grows with the team.