Goaltending

[darth_henning]

If he manages a total of 20 starts for the season and his win-loss ratio is 2-17-1 or something like that, would you sign him?  That would likely see his SA% around 0.900 and his GAA around 3.0.  That doesn't inspire much confidence.  

 

I don't really care much about the win-loss ratio if he's losing 2-1 games for most of them (which are most of his losses since call-up) That's on the team's scoring not him. 

 

 

If he puts up anything under 0.900 POST-CALLUP, then we walk away. If he can do better we give him a chance and see. 

[travel_dude]

I don't really care much about the win-loss ratio if he's losing 2-1 games for most of them (which are most of his losses since call-up) That's on the team's scoring not him. 

 

 

If he puts up anything under 0.900 POST-CALLUP, then we walk away. If he can do better we give him a chance and see. 

 

I would yes

 

He was 0.886 with 4 GA in a win

Prior was .880 and 3 GA in a loss

Prior was .923 and 2 GA in a win

Prior was .913 and 2 GA in an OTL

 

Other games (losses) were .920 .800 .941 .946 .818 .806 and .886.

 

Even with the recent good games, he is still .897 and 3.03  GAA.  Having 4 GA in a 7-4 win is not inspiring.  He has to improve his stats over the final games for me to have enough confidence in him going forward.  Keeping below 3 per game is something that is crucial, as is stopping around 91% of the shots he does face.

[DirtyDeeds]

if the expansion draft happens and Flames are still looking for goaltending this would likely be good chance to pick one up, either before the draft so that team can get back a player or pick for their investment, or at the draft due to the 1 goalie limit on protect.

[Carty]

I'll defer. I've only played as a forward recreationally, and I've never really looked at goalie equipment (let alone the pro level stuff) Seeing those pics there's a lot more additional pieces than I expected. 

 

A lot of goalies wear oversize pants bigger than their waist, and then use wide suspenders to hang them so they can wear them...   Even if they wore them to fit, look at the actual waist size, and then the bulk added to make them bigger below the waist...   Now combine that with the chest and arm protector that comes down over the top of the pants, and it makes a thinner goalie look like a tank...

 

[darth_henning]

He was 0.886 with 4 GA in a win

Prior was .880 and 3 GA in a loss

Prior was .923 and 2 GA in a win

Prior was .913 and 2 GA in an OTL

 

Other games (losses) were .920 .800 .941 .946 .818 .806 and .886.

 

Even with the recent good games, he is still .897 and 3.03  GAA.  Having 4 GA in a 7-4 win is not inspiring.  He has to improve his stats over the final games for me to have enough confidence in him going forward.  Keeping below 3 per game is something that is crucial, as is stopping around 91% of the shots he does face.

 

Including those two games from the beginning of the year should be irrelevant to the discussion of his play. 

 

Since call-up he is at 0.904 and 2.77. 

 

Neither of those are fantastic stats. But they're also as good or better than many of the replacement options being tossed around by people here. 

 

We have to be realistic. That means that while we accept that he's no price, he's also not a washout either and is worth looking at for next year. 

 

6 games with 2 GA (only one win, one OTL)

2 games with 4 GA (one win one loss)

1 game with 5 GA (one loss)

 

 

We should have at least 3 more wins in that time if we'd been scoring like the team usually does. 

 

IN summary he's had

 

2 games over 0.94

3 games over 0.92

1 game over 0.90

2 games of 0.88

1 game of 0.80 (which is a remarkable outlyer) 

 

 

That's not bad. Its not great either. But its not bad. 

[travel_dude]

Including those two games from the beginning of the year should be irrelevant to the discussion of his play. 

 

Since call-up he is at 0.904 and 2.77. 

 

Neither of those are fantastic stats. But they're also as good or better than many of the replacement options being tossed around by people here. 

 

We have to be realistic. That means that while we accept that he's no price, he's also not a washout either and is worth looking at for next year. 

 

6 games with 2 GA (only one win, one OTL)

2 games with 4 GA (one win one loss)

1 game with 5 GA (one loss)

 

 

We should have at least 3 more wins in that time if we'd been scoring like the team usually does. 

 

IN summary he's had

 

2 games over 0.94

3 games over 0.92

1 game over 0.90

2 games of 0.88

1 game of 0.80 (which is a remarkable outlyer) 

 

 

That's not bad. Its not great either. But its not bad. 

 

His play for the entire year should be relevant, since a backup just doesn't play in February and March.  Ortio has been a slow starter, so the full body of work is necessary.

 

You have to look deeper at the starts and the goals scored in any evaluation.  For instance, he had two duplicate games for SA% and number of shots; October 26th against NYI (4 GA and .886 on 35 shots - L) vs March 14th against STL (same stats exactly except it was a win).  

 

I'm not harping on him, just that he has to do better than just get wins when we have big offensive games.  Would like to see him shut out the Oilers  and keep to 1 GA for a few games.  

[The_People1]

if the expansion draft happens and Flames are still looking for goaltending this would likely be good chance to pick one up, either before the draft so that team can get back a player or pick for their investment, or at the draft due to the 1 goalie limit on protect.

 

Ya I would imagine a goalie like Fredrick Andersen going from being "not really available unless the price is right", to being "I'll take back a 3rd rounder if that's all I can salvage."

[tincup1]

if the expansion draft happens and Flames are still looking for goaltending this would likely be good chance to pick one up, either before the draft so that team can get back a player or pick for their investment, or at the draft due to the 1 goalie limit on protect.

 

I agree, this might be Calgary best chance to get a good up and coming tender at a reasonable price.  Then add a vet to the mix and we're set.

[phoenix66]

Ya I would imagine a goalie like Fredrick Andersen going from being "not really available unless the price is right", to being "I'll take back a 3rd rounder if that's all I can salvage."

 

YUp! this is exactly how we lost Giguere

[darth_henning]

His play for the entire year should be relevant, since a backup just doesn't play in February and March.  Ortio has been a slow starter, so the full body of work is necessary.

 

You have to look deeper at the starts and the goals scored in any evaluation.  For instance, he had two duplicate games for SA% and number of shots; October 26th against NYI (4 GA and .886 on 35 shots - L) vs March 14th against STL (same stats exactly except it was a win).  

 

I'm not harping on him, just that he has to do better than just get wins when we have big offensive games.  Would like to see him shut out the Oilers  and keep to 1 GA for a few games.  

 

Two games. When the entire team was playing horribly. When he had basically not played for a year outside two (three?) pre-season games. When there was that insane three goalie rotation going and he got the fewest starts. When our top D-man was out, and another of our top 3 was in his first days with the team. 

 

Yeah. That's a comparable situation to something that we'll regularly see in the future...

 

 

Yes, there are problems with him. He needs to win close games when we don't have big offensive outbursts. But there are at best 2 losses since his return that could be qualified as that. 

 

13-14 - 2.51 GAA 0.891 (9 GP)

14-15 - 2.52 GAA 0.908 (6 GP)

15-16 year start - 5.0 GAA 0.846 (2 GP) 

15-16 since callup - 2.5 GAA 0.910 (10 GP)

 

One of these things is not like the other things...

 

So yes, it is VERY relevant whether you look at those first games of the year.  

 

They in no way represent the player. They are a product of the situation. 

 

EDITED to include tonight's game

[KidKappa]

Took a look at a few Penguin message boards.  Most are split 50/50 protecting Fleury or Murray.  With most suggesting trading Fleury beforehand.  The last Fleury worked out for us.... 

[KidKappa]

Also Zach Fucale/Carey Price tandem looks pretty tempting as well.  

[jjgallow]

Ortio has been very bad to ok to good to very good this season.  If he falters in the next 10 starts (assuming he gets that many), would you still be comfortable with him as a backup for next year?  I don't know myself.  He should be dialed in right now, so anything less than top performance by him should be cause for concern.

 

Not saying he will falter, but it is just as likely as him playing lights out.  Probably more likely that he plays a middling set of games; good overall but eratic rebound control or 3.0 GAA/0.905 SA%.  OK, but not great.  What do we do then?

 

I agree, if he drops off significantly, we let him go.   But only after we've given him a chance this season.   Which we appear to be finally doing.

 

What I disagree with, is that if he plays really well, this has no impact.

 

IMHO, it does have an impact.  If he plays, say, .930 hockey the rest of the way, that's going to affect the Flame's acquisition plans.  And it will change a lot of opinions on here too.   I'm not saying this is likely, either.   But in the event that it happens, it Will have an impact.

 

p.s..."has been very bad to ok to good to very good"   -Accurate.   But, could also be used to describe most NHL goaltenders including Ramo and Hiller.   At the end of the day you look and see where they average out.  To be honest, he's shown more consistency than Hiller, and isn't that far off from Ramo either.

[jjgallow]

Well, the Flames have one less sub-900 goalie now.

 

 

Ortio moves above 900 this year, and rightfully gets the third star.

 

At .902 for the season, he leaves Hiller in the dust, and is closing in on Ramo's .909.

 

 

No subtracting, no funny math...he's just .902.   Good, bad, everything inbetween, averaged out.

 

 

Let's see where he takes it....

[travel_dude]

I agree, if he drops off significantly, we let him go.   But only after we've given him a chance this season.   Which we appear to be finally doing.

 

What I disagree with, is that if he plays really well, this has no impact.

 

IMHO, it does have an impact.  If he plays, say, .930 hockey the rest of the way, that's going to affect the Flame's acquisition plans.  And it will change a lot of opinions on here too.   I'm not saying this is likely, either.   But in the event that it happens, it Will have an impact.

 

p.s..."has been very bad to ok to good to very good"   -Accurate.   But, could also be used to describe most NHL goaltenders including Ramo and Hiller.   At the end of the day you look and see where they average out.  To be honest, he's shown more consistency than Hiller, and isn't that far off from Ramo either.

 

I don't think I said that if he plays really well it doesn't matter.  If he does that, he will likely get signed.  But that doesn't make him a starter, just a good finisher.  He wasn't really any better than Ramo or Hiller at any recent camps.  A pre-season game is only half the picture.  

 

Regarding your PS.  That is true of Ramo perhaps, but not Hiller.  And it doesn't typify most NHL goalies.  Maybe a goalie like Nillson. But typical goalies play more than 20 games, so 50% good to very good and 50% bad to very bad is not normal. 

[DirtyDeeds]

I agree, if he drops off significantly, we let him go.   But only after we've given him a chance this season.   Which we appear to be finally doing.

 

What I disagree with, is that if he plays really well, this has no impact.

 

IMHO, it does have an impact.  If he plays, say, .930 hockey the rest of the way, that's going to affect the Flame's acquisition plans.  And it will change a lot of opinions on here too.   I'm not saying this is likely, either.   But in the event that it happens, it Will have an impact.

 

p.s..."has been very bad to ok to good to very good"   -Accurate.   But, could also be used to describe most NHL goaltenders including Ramo and Hiller.   At the end of the day you look and see where they average out.  To be honest, he's shown more consistency than Hiller, and isn't that far off from Ramo either.

I don't think it should change anything towards the Flames acquisition plans. Too early to hand him starter reins reguardless how poor/well he plays. I think the Flames should grab a vet #1 starter unless Backstrom fills that spot.

[xstrike]

It's huge, and over about the last 20 years, it has increasingly been designed to add size, not just protection...

 

They all know it, and that is why it has become an issue that is being addressed...

 

Here are a few examples...

 

 

A lot of goalies wear oversize pants bigger than their waist, and then use wide suspenders to hang them so they can wear them...   Even if they wore them to fit, look at the actual waist size, and then the bulk added to make them bigger below the waist...   Now combine that with the chest and arm protector that comes down over the top of the pants, and it makes a thinner goalie look like a tank...

 

Some of you may have seen this video, some of you may not. I think it is really useful to visualize how changes would look. It's probably on the extreme end of what can/will be done, but I think it serves its purpose.

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/hirsch-explains-how-to-fix-the-problem-with-goalie-equipment-2/

[Carty]

Some of you may have seen this video, some of you may not. I think it is really useful to visualize how changes would look. It's probably on the extreme end of what can/will be done, but I think it serves its purpose.

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/hirsch-explains-how-to-fix-the-problem-with-goalie-equipment-2/

 

 

I posted that same link a while back, and it is a good illustration of the point I was making...   I don't think the suggested changes are that extreme either, as it would still provide more than adequate protection without adding unnecessary size...    The only part that I don't agree with is shrinking the stick like that...   They already changed the rule a couple of years ago (think it was 2013-14) so the paddle couldn't be more than 26" (because half the goalies in the league had sticks with longer paddles)  and the paddle and blade have a max width of 3 1/2"...

[phoenix66]

I posted that same link a while back, and it is a good illustration of the point I was making...   I don't think the suggested changes are that extreme either, as it would still provide more than adequate protection without adding unnecessary size...    The only part that I don't agree with is shrinking the stick like that...   They already changed the rule a couple of years ago (think it was 2013-14) so the paddle couldn't be more than 26" (because half the goalies in the league had sticks with longer paddles)  and the paddle and blade have a max width of 3 1/2"...

yep.. i still recall Roman Turek needing special league permission for all his equipment..

[DirtyDeeds]

Backstrom get the start on Sunday.

[Carty]

Backstrom get the start on Sunday.

 

Don't mind seeing Backstrom on the first game of a back to back at this point...   It will be interesting to see what he has left in the tank...

[jjgallow]

Don't mind seeing Backstrom on the first game of a back to back at this point...   It will be interesting to see what he has left in the tank...

 

I think we all know the likely outcome, but I'm interested as well.  We'd all love to be wrong.

 

I'm wondering....

 

Could Backstrom have another future, potentially, with the Flames organization?   Goalie coach?  I certainly like his perspective.

 

 

http://ingoalmag.com/ask-a-pro-with-niklas-backstrom/

 

Niklas Backstrom: “In Finland, even if you are a junior, every goalie has a goalie coach. My father was my first year and after that the team had a goalie coach and during the year you had goalie-specific practices on the ice and in the summers we had goalie workouts. So it was something when you get odler, 13, 14 years old you get to have you your own goalie coach every practice and you do some special drills and that’s a good culture in Finland and it’s something that helps every goalie for sure. Sweden did it a couple of years ago and now look at all the good goalies that are coming from Sweden. It doesn’t take a long time.”

[jjgallow]

I don't think it should change anything towards the Flames acquisition plans. Too early to hand him starter reins reguardless how poor/well he plays. I think the Flames should grab a vet #1 starter unless Backstrom fills that spot.

 

IMHO, we won't see the Flames sign a valuable, legitimate NHL starter in their prime.  Regardless. 

 

Expansion draft will ensure that.

 

Ortio most likely Does have the ability to affect his future in these next 10 games.   Up to and including starter.

 

I'm not saying he will, or that it's a likely scenario.  But it is a possibility.

 

Meanwhile, to touch on a discussion on another thread, the Flames may need to decide whether they protect Ortio or Gillies (at least, that's how we understand it now?).

 

The only loophole may be to sign one of them to a NMC....highly unlikely.  And not sure it would even work.

 

At the end of the day...what he does in these last 10 or so games, likely will matter.

[travel_dude]

IMHO, we won't see the Flames sign a valuable, legitimate NHL starter in their prime.  Regardless. 

 

Expansion draft will ensure that.

 

Ortio most likely Does have the ability to affect his future in these next 10 games.   Up to and including starter.

 

I'm not saying he will, or that it's a likely scenario.  But it is a possibility.

 

Meanwhile, to touch on a discussion on another thread, the Flames may need to decide whether they protect Ortio or Gillies (at least, that's how we understand it now?).

 

The only loophole may be to sign one of them to a NMC....highly unlikely.  And not sure it would even work.

 

At the end of the day...what he does in these last 10 or so games, likely will matter.

 

Unless Ortio becomes a starter next season, he won't be protected.  Let's face it, there are currently about 30 backups to choose from for an expansion team.  They are going to pick the best one out there.  

[darth_henning]

I'm not terribly worried about what goalie to protect. 

 

If Gillies is eligible to be picked, he will definitely be the one protected. 

 

if Gillies is not eligible, then we protect whoever our current starter is. If that's Ortio, great, if that's someone else, great. 

 

 

I'm a little concerned with Ortio's play the past week. 

 

6 of his first 7 games since call-up were good to great, with one stinker on a team breakdown. 

 

3 of his last 4 games have been weak, with one excellent game. 

 

Average is still decent (0.909, 2.55) but the trendline is a bit of a worry.