Goaltending

[FlamesLogic]

I agree with some of your assessment but not all. Most of the available UFA are coming off back up duty and are hard to say if they could handle 40+ games. Should we go these route we likely need two similar goalies as a tandem. Reimer has the biggest body of work but I don't want to get into 3.5M for him for 3 years. I would rather try Raanta or Enroth both have played behind top goaltenders and should know what it takes to succeed. Either of these at 2.5M for 2 or 3 years would work for me along with Ortio.

I'm ok with all of your scenarios including Reimer. Key to me in the absence of elite options is to get the best value option and invest cap in other areas instead

[travel_dude]

Yeah.

 

I agree with all the words and concepts here about acquiring a young goaltender, like Varlamov, etc.

 

But, 27, 28, 29, 30....Are these players Really young in this NHL?

 

Varlamov isn't a starter now.  He was a good starter three years ago, and has been declining ever since.

 

IMHO, we take equal risks with "available" veterans, as we do with "promising" rookies.

 

 

I'll reserve my final judgement for after the season has ended.  I think we have a lot more to learn about Ortio.

 

23-17-3 seems like starter numbers to me.  Had a bad stretch, but still 0.914 this season.  Last two seasons over 0.920.

With a substandard defense, he still has had a few good season recently.  Imagine what we would have looked like last season with a 0.921 SA%.  Or even this season with a 0.914 over 45 games.

[darth_henning]

Ortio Since Callup update:

 

Average

 

0.911 - 2.43 GAA

0.946 - 2
0.941 - 2
0.800 - 5
0.920 - 2
0.935 - 2
0.913 - 2
0.923 - 2

 

 

Dang that's a consistent GA. 

 

Also

 

Equivalent of 31st in the league for Save %

Equivalent of 20th in the league in GAA

[robrob1974]

What is it, minus the .800 game?

[travel_dude]

What is it, minus the .800 game?

Better.  

[darth_henning]

What is it, minus the .800 game?

 

0.930, 2 GAA

 

Which would put him top of the league in each category. 

 

But lets not get ahead of ourselves on the basis of 6 of those games. 

 

If it gets up to 15 to 20....THEN I start to wonder. 

[jjgallow]

23-17-3 seems like starter numbers to me.  Had a bad stretch, but still 0.914 this season.  Last two seasons over 0.920.

With a substandard defense, he still has had a few good season recently.  Imagine what we would have looked like last season with a 0.921 SA%.  Or even this season with a 0.914 over 45 games.

 

We would have looked average.   Minus whatever assets we lost to get him.

 

Average is an improvement.    Is it a goal?

 

Also, whether it's Ortio, or Varlamov, or Ramo, or ....  WHOEVER...

 

Yeah, when you take away their bad games, their save percentage gets better.  

 

 

But, that kind of negates the whole point of calculating a save percentage.

 

 

(take away Ortio's bad games, and take away Varlamovs....and ...they're pretty close.   But what exactly would that mean?    what's more important, is if Ortio keeps doing what he's doing, they'll have extremely close save percentages by the end of the year.  Except that we can expect Ortio, unlike Varlamov, to get Better going forward.   So....what Ortio does in his last ten games, imho, matters.)

[travel_dude]

We would have looked average.   Minus whatever assets we lost to get him.

 

Average is an improvement.    Is it a goal?

 

Also, whether it's Ortio, or Varlamov, or Ramo, or ....  WHOEVER...

 

Yeah, when you take away their bad games, their save percentage gets better.  

 

 

But, that kind of negates the whole point of calculating a save percentage.

 

 

(take away Ortio's bad games, and take away Varlamovs....and ...they're pretty close.   But what exactly would that mean?    what's more important, is if Ortio keeps doing what he's doing, they'll have extremely close save percentages by the end of the year.  Except that we can expect Ortio, unlike Varlamov, to get Better going forward.   So....what Ortio does in his last ten games, imho, matters.)

 

Well, Varly has played a heck of a lot more games than Ortio.  SA% is not that important in a small sample.  

 

Why would you think that a NHL starter would be declining at age 27?  If you think that going into next season with a goalie with about 27 games as the starter, is a reasonable risk, then you are one of the few.  

 

Besides Ortio, what is your solution?  Or is Ortio the only important thing to talk about here.  I don't think anyone disputes his recent play or that he could become a solid backup next season.  But are we really going to pin next season on Ortio and some ramdom backup from somewhere?  If you agree that you build a team from the net out, then why would you have basically a rookie as your only solution?  He's no Price.  He hasn't played even a quarter of a season.  

[jjgallow]

Well, Varly has played a heck of a lot more games than Ortio.  SA% is not that important in a small sample.  

 

Well then it's Backstrom, right?

 

What is the fascination with having played tonnes of NHL games and still being cheaply available?

 

What, exactly, does that say?

 

Once again, this is not the time for next seasons' solutions.  We need to see what we have in Ortio until the end of the season.

[FlamesLogic]

Well then it's Backstrom, right?

 

What is the fascination with having played tonnes of NHL games and still being cheaply available?

 

What, exactly, does that say?

 

Once again, this is not the time for next seasons' solutions.  We need to see what we have in Ortio until the end of the season.

Regardless Ortio has played himself into a one way deal next year as the backup. He wont have a big enough sample size for anyone to annoint him as anything else. That said the better he plays the more you shy away from the Cam Wards and move more towards the Antti Raantas.

[conundrumed]

Well...having just returned from the game, I tend to be an over-thinker.

So, my wonder, Ortio is now seeing a net he can win.

I watched him from close for the first and 3rd (dang johnny's goals at the other end!).

Pucks hit him in the belly button, no rebounds.

The Nashville goals, no one is stopping those. I'm constantly harping that our roster HAS to get better for our goaltending to get better.

That was a shutout for Ortio tonight, but instead, we're overwhelmed in close, again.

Anyone see Colborne's "2-on-1" lol.

He stared at his teammate, it became a 2-on-2, the 2 being on his teammate.

He passed it anyways. He didn't even look at the net *shock*

Stajan was a close second.

But both qualify as the boneheadedest players I've seen.

When Bollig sucks, he just sucks, but he isn't stupid about it.

At any rate, back to goalies, strange breed.

Ortio's smelling the opportunity, probably at last. He looked awfully sound tonight. Even the big Weber sneaking in blast, right in the bellybutton.

Things change. Ortio is playing really well.

[kehatch]

Well then it's Backstrom, right?

What is the fascination with having played tonnes of NHL games and still being cheaply available?

What, exactly, does that say?

Once again, this is not the time for next seasons' solutions. We need to see what we have in Ortio until the end of the season.

One, we still need another goalie so talking about next season is fine.

Two, no matter what happens for the rest of the season Ortio will still only have around 40 NHL games and be coming of an inconsistent season. No NHL GM is going to pair that with a rookie with a few (or no) games played.

Three, there is value in a proven NHL goalie. Play Ortio with Varlamov and you have a good chance of getting good to great goaltending next season. Just as importantly you have the insurance of a proven NHL starter. You don't get that insurance in a rookie who you are not even sure can play consistently at this level.

Like it or not the Flames will be talking about Ortio OR Gilles OR Murray OR one of the many rookies you have listed to play with a player like Ramo OR Varlamov OR one of the other proven starters in the league. Be happy that Ortio is cementing himself on top of the list of guys he is competing with.

[cccsberg]

Well, Varly has played a heck of a lot more games than Ortio.  SA% is not that important in a small sample.  

 

Why would you think that a NHL starter would be declining at age 27?  If you think that going into next season with a goalie with about 27 games as the starter, is a reasonable risk, then you are one of the few.  

 

Besides Ortio, what is your solution?  Or is Ortio the only important thing to talk about here.  I don't think anyone disputes his recent play or that he could become a solid backup next season.  But are we really going to pin next season on Ortio and some ramdom backup from somewhere?  If you agree that you build a team from the net out, then why would you have basically a rookie as your only solution?  He's no Price.  He hasn't played even a quarter of a season.  

If Ortio continues his solid play with very good numbers and composure, he could definitely be an option for starter going forward.  Cases in point, look at Jones with SJS, or Talbot with Edmonton.  Both had very solid numbers with few games before this year and both have turned into pretty god good starters this year, though not without hiccups.  Going the same route with Ortio would be fantastic, if he can continue his growth.  Saying that, you till need a solid vet to guide him and fill-in when needed.  To me, we can go elsewhere, yes, but looking at Ramo/Ortio to start the year looks like the best of both worlds with the exception of Ramo's injury and rehab.

 

If the Flames decide to go elsewhere we should be looking for something similar, i.e. a solid vet for a couple years and a young up and comer to groom to step in, either immediately or within the year.  2-3 years down the road we already have a couple developing options that could surpass them all.

[MAC331]

I'm ok with all of your scenarios including Reimer. Key to me in the absence of elite options is to get the best value option and invest cap in other areas instead

We will be investing in other areas FAST being Gaudreau and Monahan. Trying to hand pick an potential elite goalie is not an easy task, most get there by carrying a heavy workload and proving into the job. take Carey Price a no miss candidate took an number of years to rise to his current ranking.

Let's say we went with Reimer, what kind of deal signs him, 3 years @3.5M ?

Will he be any better than either Raanta or Enroth @ 2.5M for 2 to 3years until we arrive at Gilles ?

[JTech780]

We will be investing in other areas FAST being Gaudreau and Monahan. Trying to hand pick an potential elite goalie is not an easy task, most get there by carrying a heavy workload and proving into the job. take Carey Price a no miss candidate took an number of years to rise to his current ranking.

Let's say we went with Reimer, what kind of deal signs him, 3 years @3.5M ?

Will he be any better than either Raanta or Enroth @ 2.5M for 2 to 3years until we arrive at Gilles ?

Reimer is capable of being a 1b maybe even a 1a, similar to Ramo, good for 30-45 games a year. Raanta and Enroth are nothing more than backups, they are good for 15-20 games a year and that's about it.

[Krule]

I am OK with the way Ortio is currently playing and hope he can continue that kind of consistency until the end of the year. His confidence level must be at an all time high and I think it may expand who we look at to fit the bill in a 1a/1b scenario. Every goaltender has a bad game. It's what they do following that bad game that defines their usefulness. 

 

Woohoo! 100 posts   

[MAC331]

Reimer is capable of being a 1b maybe even a 1a, similar to Ramo, good for 30-45 games a year. Raanta and Enroth are nothing more than backups, they are good for 15-20 games a year and that's about it.

How do you know ? they have never been pushed past a low back up workload. Our situation will be getting a divided work load for as you put it a 1A and a 1B to see if one or the other or both excel past their previous situations.

[JTech780]

How do you know ? they have never been pushed past a low back up workload. Our situation will be getting a divided work load for as you put it a 1A and a 1B to see if one or the other or both excel past their previous situations.

I have zero faith in Raanta, Chicago passed on him and the Rangers were looking for an upgrade on him at the deadline.

Enroth might be able to step up, but I still see as a long shot.

[darth_henning]

 

 

(take away Ortio's bad games, and take away Varlamovs....and ...they're pretty close.   But what exactly would that mean?    what's more important, is if Ortio keeps doing what he's doing, they'll have extremely close save percentages by the end of the year.  Except that we can expect Ortio, unlike Varlamov, to get Better going forward.   So....what Ortio does in his last ten games, imho, matters.)

 

I'm sure if you took the 6 best games from anyone's season you'd find a couple guys each season with a 1.000 save and 0GA average. 

 

I'm not remotely suggesting that that's Ortio's likely average over the season, but its interesting to note that he has that potential over a sequence of games. That's a bit of a higher ceiling thatn we've seen from him in years past. 

 

As someone mentioned above, he seems to see the opportunity and is putting all of himself into it. 

 

We are going to have to start averaging 3 goals a game with him in net though

 

 

 

Besides Ortio, what is your solution?  Or is Ortio the only important thing to talk about here.  I don't think anyone disputes his recent play or that he could become a solid backup next season.  But are we really going to pin next season on Ortio and some ramdom backup from somewhere?  If you agree that you build a team from the net out, then why would you have basically a rookie as your only solution?  He's no Price.  He hasn't played even a quarter of a season.  

 

Regardless Ortio has played himself into a one way deal next year as the backup. He wont have a big enough sample size for anyone to annoint him as anything else. That said the better he plays the more you shy away from the Cam Wards and move more towards the Antti Raantas.

 

 

While I agree that we don't anoint him a starter I find it disappointing that so many (more than you two) are pegging his ceiling as being a "good backup". 

 

Yes, we need an experienced NHL goalie on a short-term contract for insurance. But why on earth we wouldn't give Ortio the opportunity to show he can be a 1a/1b or starter next season baffles me. 

 

When Gaudreau and Monahan came in no one said, "Oh, they had a few good games! They should get a short contract for our third line". No, all of us started thinking about what their ceiling could be. 

 

Look at Bennett, throughout the year people have said that he's the most dynamic player on the team and our future #1C. His freshman season is shaping up to be very similar to Monahan's and though he does have some brilliant moves, he's faded down the stretch. No one's crying to lock him into the bottom 6 because he hasn't had a good enough sample yet. We all still expect him to be a top 6 or top line center who will cost us a bundle. 

 

Yet for some reason no one's willing to give Ortio that same opportunity to prove himself, "backup's all he can be". 

 

No you don't hand him the keys to the net, and hire a 20 year old backup. That's stupid. But you give him the chance to run things and see how he manages. As this callup has shown, give him some rope to prove himself and he'll do a pretty good job. My goal would be to see how many games he can keep this up for, not limit him now. 

 

If he fails, have an NHL-ready starter ready to step in and keep the team competitive. If he succeeds, you know you have a veteran backup ready to go at all times as insurance and a trade chip for when another youngster (Gillies) is ready to step into the big league. 

[cross16]

How do you know ? they have never been pushed past a low back up workload. Our situation will be getting a divided work load for as you put it a 1A and a 1B to see if one or the other or both excel past their previous situations.

 

Both Buffalo and Dallas gave him a shot and he wasn't able to take the regins in either situation. He was basically Buffalo's starter for much of the season last year and did not play very well. Yes, I konw its Buffalo but if you want to be considered a starting goalie you still need to play at least average even on a bad team and he didn't.

 

Keep in mind LA as a team made Bernier and Ben Scrivens looks like starters too. I think you have to be very weary of backup goalies in LA and assumign they can be starters elsewhere because that team is so good defensivly its easier to put up big numbers. in a limited amount of games. 

 

When it comes to free agency there are only a few I have any interest in:

Reimer (needs to be a 2 year deal or less and less than 4 mill)

Chad Johnson (wuld probably be my first pick actually. I like him and he'd probably be cheap)

Al Montoya

Carter Hutton (doubt Nashville lets him go but he'd be a solid target)

Ramo - as a fall back but only on a 1 year deal. I'm not giving any term to a guy coming of ACL surgery.

[FlamesLogic]

While I agree that we don't anoint him a starter I find it disappointing that so many (more than you two) are pegging his ceiling as being a "good backup". 

 

Yes, we need an experienced NHL goalie on a short-term contract for insurance. But why on earth we wouldn't give Ortio the opportunity to show he can be a 1a/1b or starter next season baffles me. 

You give Ortio about 25-30 starts next year after signing him to a one or two year one way deal close to what his RFA status dictates. You need to bring in a guy to handle the other 50 or so starts. Gillies is at least 2-3 years away as he needs at least 1 full AHL season under his belt to show what he can do.

No one is saying Ortio can't be a starter, just that for his development (he is still a younger goalie) you want to give him room to grow without carrying all the stress on his own. 

2 years behind a veteran in the NHL is the best case and I think most will agree. After those 2 years you make your decision for further role.

Thats why I think a Chad Johnson (bigger Cam Talbot type) on a 2 yr reasonable price deal is one of the better options. 

If Johnson stinks up the joint you arent invested long term and can turn to Ortio/Gillies.

If Johnson is good you continue the relationship and maybe move Ortio to make room for Gillies.

OR if Johnson is good but Ortio is also pressing you ship out Johnson on TDL like Reimer this year and prepare for Ortio/Gillies.

The goalie rules are so skewed towards favouring big goalies that all things being equal take the 6'3" plus goalie instead as he covers quite a bit more of the net just in padding.

Its why Gillies is so attractive to me. A good 6'5" er like Ben Bishop.

[cccsberg]

We will be investing in other areas FAST being Gaudreau and Monahan. Trying to hand pick an potential elite goalie is not an easy task, most get there by carrying a heavy workload and proving into the job. take Carey Price a no miss candidate took an number of years to rise to his current ranking.

Let's say we went with Reimer, what kind of deal signs him, 3 years @3.5M ?

Will he be any better than either Raanta or Enroth @ 2.5M for 2 to 3years until we arrive at Gilles ?

I recall early on with Price that he was struggling and there was serious talk about trading him and going elsewhere but management stuck with him and allowed him to mature into a solid goalie.  I believe Ortio has the potential to do the same, growing into a solid starter and we should allow him to do so before dismissing him and undercutting him and his confidence by bringing in another.

 

Although you never like injuries, the Ramo injury was a Godsend as it forced the Flames to give Ortio a serious shot (as Hiller was garbage...).  It cam around TDL and is kind of like an "own-trade" for a hot prospect goalie who we are now evaluating.  Hopefully he can keep it up and continue to grow into the role.

I'm sure if you took the 6 best games from anyone's season you'd find a couple guys each season with a 1.000 save and 0GA average. 

 

I'm not remotely suggesting that that's Ortio's likely average over the season, but its interesting to note that he has that potential over a sequence of games. That's a bit of a higher ceiling thatn we've seen from him in years past. 

 

As someone mentioned above, he seems to see the opportunity and is putting all of himself into it. 

 

We are going to have to start averaging 3 goals a game with him in net though

 

 

 

 

 

While I agree that we don't anoint him a starter I find it disappointing that so many (more than you two) are pegging his ceiling as being a "good backup". 

 

Yes, we need an experienced NHL goalie on a short-term contract for insurance. But why on earth we wouldn't give Ortio the opportunity to show he can be a 1a/1b or starter next season baffles me. 

 

When Gaudreau and Monahan came in no one said, "Oh, they had a few good games! They should get a short contract for our third line". No, all of us started thinking about what their ceiling could be. 

 

Look at Bennett, throughout the year people have said that he's the most dynamic player on the team and our future #1C. His freshman season is shaping up to be very similar to Monahan's and though he does have some brilliant moves, he's faded down the stretch. No one's crying to lock him into the bottom 6 because he hasn't had a good enough sample yet. We all still expect him to be a top 6 or top line center who will cost us a bundle. 

 

Yet for some reason no one's willing to give Ortio that same opportunity to prove himself, "backup's all he can be". 

 

No you don't hand him the keys to the net, and hire a 20 year old backup. That's stupid. But you give him the chance to run things and see how he manages. As this callup has shown, give him some rope to prove himself and he'll do a pretty good job. My goal would be to see how many games he can keep this up for, not limit him now. 

 

If he fails, have an NHL-ready starter ready to step in and keep the team competitive. If he succeeds, you know you have a veteran backup ready to go at all times as insurance and a trade chip for when another youngster (Gillies) is ready to step into the big league. 

Very well said, and if they re-sign Ortio and Ramo while keeping all our other assets then we are likely good for next year and can focus on other pressing matters.

[travel_dude]

I'm sure if you took the 6 best games from anyone's season you'd find a couple guys each season with a 1.000 save and 0GA average. 

 

I'm not remotely suggesting that that's Ortio's likely average over the season, but its interesting to note that he has that potential over a sequence of games. That's a bit of a higher ceiling thatn we've seen from him in years past. 

 

As someone mentioned above, he seems to see the opportunity and is putting all of himself into it. 

 

We are going to have to start averaging 3 goals a game with him in net though

 

 

 

 

 

While I agree that we don't anoint him a starter I find it disappointing that so many (more than you two) are pegging his ceiling as being a "good backup". 

 

Yes, we need an experienced NHL goalie on a short-term contract for insurance. But why on earth we wouldn't give Ortio the opportunity to show he can be a 1a/1b or starter next season baffles me. 

 

When Gaudreau and Monahan came in no one said, "Oh, they had a few good games! They should get a short contract for our third line". No, all of us started thinking about what their ceiling could be. 

 

Look at Bennett, throughout the year people have said that he's the most dynamic player on the team and our future #1C. His freshman season is shaping up to be very similar to Monahan's and though he does have some brilliant moves, he's faded down the stretch. No one's crying to lock him into the bottom 6 because he hasn't had a good enough sample yet. We all still expect him to be a top 6 or top line center who will cost us a bundle. 

 

Yet for some reason no one's willing to give Ortio that same opportunity to prove himself, "backup's all he can be". 

 

No you don't hand him the keys to the net, and hire a 20 year old backup. That's stupid. But you give him the chance to run things and see how he manages. As this callup has shown, give him some rope to prove himself and he'll do a pretty good job. My goal would be to see how many games he can keep this up for, not limit him now. 

 

If he fails, have an NHL-ready starter ready to step in and keep the team competitive. If he succeeds, you know you have a veteran backup ready to go at all times as insurance and a trade chip for when another youngster (Gillies) is ready to step into the big league. 

 

Starting as a backup is not an insult nor his ceiling.  That is how many make the transition.  Forcing him into a starting role or even projecting him there is dumb.

[FlamesLogic]

Very well said, and if they re-sign Ortio and Ramo while keeping all our other assets then we are likely good for next year and can focus on other pressing matters.

Goalies coming off torn ACL's are not a high priority for me. Either give them longer away to heal or let another team recuperate them. 

 

I dont look at Ramo if I have the option to get: Ward, Reimer, Chad Johnson, Enroth, Raanta or even a reasonable deal to get Niemi from Dallas or someone elses RFA like a Mrazek. As such I think there is probably 10 other options to look at before we look at Ramo. 

[MAC331]

I have zero faith in Raanta, Chicago passed on him and the Rangers were looking for an upgrade on him at the deadline.

Enroth might be able to step up, but I still see as a long shot.

Fair enough

I recall early on with Price that he was struggling and there was serious talk about trading him and going elsewhere but management stuck with him and allowed him to mature into a solid goalie.  I believe Ortio has the potential to do the same, growing into a solid starter and we should allow him to do so before dismissing him and undercutting him and his confidence by bringing in another.

 

Although you never like injuries, the Ramo injury was a Godsend as it forced the Flames to give Ortio a serious shot (as Hiller was garbage...).  It cam around TDL and is kind of like an "own-trade" for a hot prospect goalie who we are now evaluating.  Hopefully he can keep it up and continue to grow into the role.

Very well said, and if they re-sign Ortio and Ramo while keeping all our other assets then we are likely good for next year and can focus on other pressing matters.

We have to bring in another goalie but Ortio shouldn't view it as undercutting him, rather it should challenge him for his best performances. I see a sharing tandem shaping up for a few years here.