Holy Strawberry: Weber Signs Offer Sheet With Philly

[C_worthy]

The 1 given is that if Nashville matches they fork over $13 million on the signing date, $1 million before the season starts & another $13 million July 1/13.

I'm not positive if the 1 year they are barred from trading Weber is a calender year or a season so it's possible they pay $14 million for 1 season & trade him. The other option is $27 million & then trade.

Calendar year - it's $27m guaranteed (no roll-back) before they can trade him.

^ again.. very short-sighted. Nashville can easily afford Weber for 4 seasons and still ice a competetive roster... just like the one they presently have..

20 players @ $56 mil. A couple more signings like Blum, and its not far off from what they've spent the last couple yrs.

Last yr: $52 mil payroll

10-11: $51 mil

09-10: $44 mil

Also consider the new CBA.

Like i said, it's easy for them to keep him..

And that whole $27 mil thing in the next 11 months... it's still part of the salary owed.. its just paid in a chunk instead of paid over the yr. I fail to see the stress it would cause the organization. Just less money they would have come out during the yr.

clearly you are not signing the cheques

and no it isn't short-sighted, there are lots of factors at play, including massive term.

[DL44]

Term is what Nashville also wants. albeit, this is a much greater number than they envisioned... but its what what the Suter deal set up in terms of marketplace.

Since you guys are focused the cons of Nashville matching... take a second to think about cons of them NOT matching.

It would set the franchise back to expansion levels... They would be left with a $5.something mil d core, no captain, and the loss of their 2 faces of the franchise. No playoffs in sight whatsoever for a couple yrs.

The long term ramifications would be devasting. Makes no sense not to match. The cons of whatever the financial stress you think would be caused in total salary, pale in comparison to the potential short and long term damage in performance, marketing, PR and fan support...

No comparison in my mind.

[C_worthy]

That is why everyone is saying this sucks for Nashville - it is a lose/lose

There is increasing talk that they are trying to negotiate more compensation - if you agree to trade Couturier for one or two of the picks, we'll not match, for example.

This would help, but no matter what happens here, they lose.

[bosn111]

Ok, Let's look at this from a whole team perspective and not a single individual.

1. The team is currently paying out just under $44 million in cap with 13 forwards, 2 goalies and 4 defencemen. This means that they really only need to sign 2 or 3 D to fill their roster.

2. Last yr: $52 mil payroll

10-11: $51 mil

09-10: $44 mil

This year that would not be anywhere close if they matched the offer. It is not the $56 million you estimate. $44 + $14 = 58 not 56, and that does not include Blum and likely 1 more D man. We aren't talking cap hit here because as you say, the cap doesn't matter. We are talking actual dollar value for the team. Instead of the $52 million they paid last year they will be spending at least $8 million more than last year, plus the extra $13 million on july 1. That means they will be spending closer to $73 million over the next year, compared to the $52 last year. That is a $21 million dollar difference in real dollars, not a $4 million that you state. On a team that is in the basement for spending due to a tight budget as the team does NOT have a ton of extra cash, this increase of 40% of last years pay outs is insane.

That is not being short sighted, that is being a realist.

3. Weber, Gill, Ellis, Josi, Klein and Blum is not a D core that really strikes fear into many peoples minds or hearts. If they re-sign Weber, they must still be looking for another 1-2 D man not just some low cost, workable player. Think about the Flames last season with Butler (a 3-4 man playing as a #2). It would be the same situation for the Preds this year. Other than Blum, they don't really have any big name D prospects to take over from Suter and Weber on the top pair.

4. With the low scoring team in front of Rinne (only 2 20+ goal scorers in Hornqvist and Fisher, 6 remaining 40+ point getters if Weber stays, admittedly they were overall better than the Flames last season but we also UPGRADED our team this year adding the likes of Wideman and Hudler alone not to mention Cervenka and likely Baertschi) the Preds could really use some help at forward. Getting 1 or 2 higher caliber players could really help them out. with 8 first round picks including the compensation for Weber and adding middling roster players, the Preds could easily add 2 solid D (not great) and 2 very solid forwards. 4 higher players > Weber if they come at essentially the same total cost and don't break the cap.

5. The talk is about keeping the team competitive in a smaller market. How do you grow the market? put out a winning team. It is not just 1 player, it is the whole team. If Weber, Suter and Rinne combined didn't raise the team to a larger market. If you believe that the fact they have made the playoffs every year but one since the 03-04 season and still have not progressed significantly in fan base so that the team income puts them as a higher spending team, then the team really needs to go further in the playoffs than the first or even second round.

6. The Preds have 12 roster contracts up for renewal at the end of the season including BOTH of their 20+ goal scorers. 7 of those 12 are RFA's and that doesn't include the non-roster players. So if you are thinking long term, the Weber deal is not the only one you need to look at. With 20+ goals and 40+ assists in 3 straight seasons, Hornqvuist will get at least a slight raise (3.5 - 4 likely). Fisher is a consistent player, his wife is in Nashville so he will likely take a discount. Most of the RFA's and UFA's will be looking for raises. Overall the team will cost more on re-signing them anyways.

Conclusion:

Basically it is extremely expensive and tough on the team in the short term cost-wise for the team to match and keep Weber. Yes losing both Suter and Weber in the same off season might sting a little, but they can deaden the sting by making trades for other players to replace the 2 (they need to replace the 1 already anyways) and the 4 1st round picks that they would get in compensation would definitely help with that. Nashville has been getting mid to low 1st round picks anyways every season because they are in the playoffs every year. Having 8 1st rounders in the next 4 years is huge.

Short term cost of Keeping Weber is likely detrimental to the ownership group. The amount of real dollars spent in the next 11 1/4 months is likely too high to be worthwhile based on team finances. Poile has likely been a smart man and has already been trying to shop first round picks for players who could be used on the team and that is why things are taking so long to decide.

Weber alone does not make the team. Trades made using the compensation could likely bring back more better players to fill the roster and strengthen it overall. There are also still UFA's out there (Kubina, Colaiacovo, Martinek, Campoli, Hannan, Commodore, Vandermeer etc) who can be signed for less and still solidify the D ranks. They may not be your top pair guys but most are good 3-4 guys at least. Kubina and Colaiacovo are likely closest to being #2 guys.

In my opinion, I don't see how Poile matches the offer. He is more likely to make some trades with the picks to bring in replacement type guys and possibly sign a UFA or 2 to solidify the D corps and get more offensive forwards. Lose 2 big names in Suter and Weber but bring in 3 - 4 big names for the same cost and using compensation / free agency would be a win in my books if the whole team was better and was able to go deeper in the post season.

[DL44]

That is why everyone is saying this sucks for Nashville - it is a lose/lose

There is increasing talk that they are trying to negotiate more compensation - if you agree to trade Couturier for one or two of the picks, we'll not match, for example.

This would help, but no matter what happens here, they lose.

Lose-Lose, maybe.. but one choice loses more than the other.

Also we can all squash the idea of negotiating more compensation since reports have come out that Nashville and Philly haven't spoken since the signing...

I know that is not a positive sign for the Philly camp.

[Flyerfan52]

Ok, Let's look at this from a whole team perspective and not a single individual.

Wow! That is a comprehensive, well reasoned post.

(You even got 1 of those rare +s I seldom bother to award. )

[DL44]

Ok, Let's look at this from a whole team perspective and not a single individual.

1. The team is currently paying out just under $44 million in cap with 13 forwards, 2 goalies and 4 defencemen. This means that they really only need to sign 2 or 3 D to fill their roster.

2. Last yr: $52 mil payroll

10-11: $51 mil

09-10: $44 mil

This year that would not be anywhere close if they matched the offer. It is not the $56 million you estimate. $44 + $14 = 58 not 56, and that does not include Blum and likely 1 more D man. We aren't talking cap hit here because as you say, the cap doesn't matter. We are talking actual dollar value for the team. Instead of the $52 million they paid last year they will be spending at least $8 million more than last year, plus the extra $13 million on july 1. That means they will be spending closer to $73 million over the next year, compared to the $52 last year. That is a $21 million dollar difference in real dollars, not a $4 million that you state. On a team that is in the basement for spending due to a tight budget as the team does NOT have a ton of extra cash, this increase of 40% of last years pay outs is insane.

That is not being short sighted, that is being a realist.

3. Weber, Gill, Ellis, Josi, Klein and Blum is not a D core that really strikes fear into many peoples minds or hearts. If they re-sign Weber, they must still be looking for another 1-2 D man not just some low cost, workable player. Think about the Flames last season with Butler (a 3-4 man playing as a #2). It would be the same situation for the Preds this year. Other than Blum, they don't really have any big name D prospects to take over from Suter and Weber on the top pair.

4. With the low scoring team in front of Rinne (only 2 20+ goal scorers in Hornqvist and Fisher, 6 remaining 40+ point getters if Weber stays, admittedly they were overall better than the Flames last season but we also UPGRADED our team this year adding the likes of Wideman and Hudler alone not to mention Cervenka and likely Baertschi) the Preds could really use some help at forward. Getting 1 or 2 higher caliber players could really help them out. with 8 first round picks including the compensation for Weber and adding middling roster players, the Preds could easily add 2 solid D (not great) and 2 very solid forwards. 4 higher players > Weber if they come at essentially the same total cost and don't break the cap.

5. The talk is about keeping the team competitive in a smaller market. How do you grow the market? put out a winning team. It is not just 1 player, it is the whole team. If Weber, Suter and Rinne combined didn't raise the team to a larger market. If you believe that the fact they have made the playoffs every year but one since the 03-04 season and still have not progressed significantly in fan base so that the team income puts them as a higher spending team, then the team really needs to go further in the playoffs than the first or even second round.

6. The Preds have 12 roster contracts up for renewal at the end of the season including BOTH of their 20+ goal scorers. 7 of those 12 are RFA's and that doesn't include the non-roster players. So if you are thinking long term, the Weber deal is not the only one you need to look at. With 20+ goals and 40+ assists in 3 straight seasons, Hornqvuist will get at least a slight raise (3.5 - 4 likely). Fisher is a consistent player, his wife is in Nashville so he will likely take a discount. Most of the RFA's and UFA's will be looking for raises. Overall the team will cost more on re-signing them anyways.

Conclusion:

Basically it is extremely expensive and tough on the team in the short term cost-wise for the team to match and keep Weber. Yes losing both Suter and Weber in the same off season might sting a little, but they can deaden the sting by making trades for other players to replace the 2 (they need to replace the 1 already anyways) and the 4 1st round picks that they would get in compensation would definitely help with that. Nashville has been getting mid to low 1st round picks anyways every season because they are in the playoffs every year. Having 8 1st rounders in the next 4 years is huge.

Short term cost of Keeping Weber is likely detrimental to the ownership group. The amount of real dollars spent in the next 11 1/4 months is likely too high to be worthwhile based on team finances. Poile has likely been a smart man and has already been trying to shop first round picks for players who could be used on the team and that is why things are taking so long to decide.

Weber alone does not make the team. Trades made using the compensation could likely bring back more better players to fill the roster and strengthen it overall. There are also still UFA's out there (Kubina, Colaiacovo, Martinek, Campoli, Hannan, Commodore, Vandermeer etc) who can be signed for less and still solidify the D ranks. They may not be your top pair guys but most are good 3-4 guys at least. Kubina and Colaiacovo are likely closest to being #2 guys.

In my opinion, I don't see how Poile matches the offer. He is more likely to make some trades with the picks to bring in replacement type guys and possibly sign a UFA or 2 to solidify the D corps and get more offensive forwards. Lose 2 big names in Suter and Weber but bring in 3 - 4 big names for the same cost and using compensation / free agency would be a win in my books if the whole team was better and was able to go deeper in the post season.

- I was estimating $56 mil since Gaustad, Fischer and Legwand all are making less real dollars than their cap hits (Erat is making more)..

- I don't know why people keep attaching that balloon payment next July 1st to this yr...

Of course by doing so it does add that wow factor.

- This was the 5th overall club last yr. Keeping Weber keeps em a playoff team, and that means - Playoff Revenue coming in and continued interest and expansion of the fanbase. Why would the organization essentially guarantee locking themselves out of that opportunity

- And in your conclusion... don't you think assuming Nashville would be able to even draw flies (let alone 3-4 big names) to their marketplace after letting Suter and Weber walk is massively presumptuous?

-I think their franchise with their $44 mil payroll and $6mil defense would be drop from the 5th overall team last yr to laughing stock lottery for yrs.

Just doesn't make business sense not to match.

--- Don't think i can really state my opinion any more than i've done.. so i now take this opportunity to bow out of this topic...

Cheers...

its' been interesting to read the perspectives of the 'do not match' people...

Wow! That is a comprehensive, well reasoned post.

(You even got 1 of those rare +s I seldom bother to award. )

I come i never get any of those

[Flyerfan52]

Also we can all squash the idea of negotiating more compensation since reports have come out that Nashville and Philly haven't spoken since the signing...

I hear they've spoken. It just hasn't been often (possibly Poile still trying to get more via trade in the time remaining).

There seems to be a split among the owners (10 of them I've heard) as to whether or not they should match.

[The_Don]

Ok, Let's look at this from a whole team perspective and not a single individual.

1. The team is currently paying out just under $44 million in cap with 13 forwards, 2 goalies and 4 defencemen. This means that they really only need to sign 2 or 3 D to fill their roster.

2. Last yr: $52 mil payroll

10-11: $51 mil

09-10: $44 mil

This year that would not be anywhere close if they matched the offer. It is not the $56 million you estimate. $44 + $14 = 58 not 56, and that does not include Blum and likely 1 more D man. We aren't talking cap hit here because as you say, the cap doesn't matter. We are talking actual dollar value for the team. Instead of the $52 million they paid last year they will be spending at least $8 million more than last year, plus the extra $13 million on july 1. That means they will be spending closer to $73 million over the next year, compared to the $52 last year. That is a $21 million dollar difference in real dollars, not a $4 million that you state. On a team that is in the basement for spending due to a tight budget as the team does NOT have a ton of extra cash, this increase of 40% of last years pay outs is insane.

That is not being short sighted, that is being a realist.

3. Weber, Gill, Ellis, Josi, Klein and Blum is not a D core that really strikes fear into many peoples minds or hearts. If they re-sign Weber, they must still be looking for another 1-2 D man not just some low cost, workable player. Think about the Flames last season with Butler (a 3-4 man playing as a #2). It would be the same situation for the Preds this year. Other than Blum, they don't really have any big name D prospects to take over from Suter and Weber on the top pair.

4. With the low scoring team in front of Rinne (only 2 20+ goal scorers in Hornqvist and Fisher, 6 remaining 40+ point getters if Weber stays, admittedly they were overall better than the Flames last season but we also UPGRADED our team this year adding the likes of Wideman and Hudler alone not to mention Cervenka and likely Baertschi) the Preds could really use some help at forward. Getting 1 or 2 higher caliber players could really help them out. with 8 first round picks including the compensation for Weber and adding middling roster players, the Preds could easily add 2 solid D (not great) and 2 very solid forwards. 4 higher players > Weber if they come at essentially the same total cost and don't break the cap.

5. The talk is about keeping the team competitive in a smaller market. How do you grow the market? put out a winning team. It is not just 1 player, it is the whole team. If Weber, Suter and Rinne combined didn't raise the team to a larger market. If you believe that the fact they have made the playoffs every year but one since the 03-04 season and still have not progressed significantly in fan base so that the team income puts them as a higher spending team, then the team really needs to go further in the playoffs than the first or even second round.

6. The Preds have 12 roster contracts up for renewal at the end of the season including BOTH of their 20+ goal scorers. 7 of those 12 are RFA's and that doesn't include the non-roster players. So if you are thinking long term, the Weber deal is not the only one you need to look at. With 20+ goals and 40+ assists in 3 straight seasons, Hornqvuist will get at least a slight raise (3.5 - 4 likely). Fisher is a consistent player, his wife is in Nashville so he will likely take a discount. Most of the RFA's and UFA's will be looking for raises. Overall the team will cost more on re-signing them anyways.

Conclusion:

Basically it is extremely expensive and tough on the team in the short term cost-wise for the team to match and keep Weber. Yes losing both Suter and Weber in the same off season might sting a little, but they can deaden the sting by making trades for other players to replace the 2 (they need to replace the 1 already anyways) and the 4 1st round picks that they would get in compensation would definitely help with that. Nashville has been getting mid to low 1st round picks anyways every season because they are in the playoffs every year. Having 8 1st rounders in the next 4 years is huge.

Short term cost of Keeping Weber is likely detrimental to the ownership group. The amount of real dollars spent in the next 11 1/4 months is likely too high to be worthwhile based on team finances. Poile has likely been a smart man and has already been trying to shop first round picks for players who could be used on the team and that is why things are taking so long to decide.

Weber alone does not make the team. Trades made using the compensation could likely bring back more better players to fill the roster and strengthen it overall. There are also still UFA's out there (Kubina, Colaiacovo, Martinek, Campoli, Hannan, Commodore, Vandermeer etc) who can be signed for less and still solidify the D ranks. They may not be your top pair guys but most are good 3-4 guys at least. Kubina and Colaiacovo are likely closest to being #2 guys.

In my opinion, I don't see how Poile matches the offer. He is more likely to make some trades with the picks to bring in replacement type guys and possibly sign a UFA or 2 to solidify the D corps and get more offensive forwards. Lose 2 big names in Suter and Weber but bring in 3 - 4 big names for the same cost and using compensation / free agency would be a win in my books if the whole team was better and was able to go deeper in the post season.

Well, he did.

[Kulstad]

Well, he did.

I'd say that loud THUD! we all just heard was FF's heart sinking to the floor.

[Flyerfan52]

I'd say that loud THUD! we all just heard was FF's heart sinking to the floor.

I have tears in my eyes.

Now where did I put that Demerol?

[The_Don]

I have tears in my eyes.

Now where did I put that Demerol?

Poor guy. Feel for ya.

[C_worthy]

I have tears in my eyes.

Now where did I put that Demerol?

Bouwmeester for 4 1sts

[Flyerfan52]

I come i never get any of those

You've received quite a few.

Unfortunately many were to cancel an undeserved -.

[Kulstad]

I have tears in my eyes.

Now where did I put that Demerol?

My offer still stands for the drink, FF. Hell, I'll even splurg for 2 rounds for you on this one.

Back on topic: Does this add more fuel to the JBo rumour mill? If so, how much?

[Flyerfan52]

Poor guy. Feel for ya.

Thanks Don.

Does this add more fuel to the JBo rumour mill? If so, how much?

I wouldn't doubt Feaster has recieved a call from Homer by now asking what it would take for JBo.

[The_Don]

Thanks Don.

I wouldn't doubt Feaster has recieved a call from Homer by now asking what it would take for JBo.

That would be a tough consolation.

[Carty]

I wouldn't doubt Feaster has recieved a call from Homer by now asking what it would take for JBo.

Not getting Weber was sad news for Flyers fans...

Well... Look at it this way... Homer could get JBo and Loungo for less salary and cap hit than he was going to lay out for Weber...

[The_Don]

Not getting Weber was sad news for Flyers fans...

Well... Look at it this way... Homer could get JBo and Loungo for less salary and cap hit than he was going to lay out for Weber...

That's not even close. Weber's cap hit is 7.5, JBow almost hits that alone.

[Carty]

That's not even close. Weber's cap hit is 7.5, JBow almost hits that alone.

Yeah, I just looked at the capgeek update as it was down for a while, and was going to edit that post... http://capgeek.com/players/display.php?id=1042

Doing the rough math, I was thinking of the 14 mil salary and the 13 mil signing bonus for the next four years without taking into account the decline after that over the term which would include the 1 mil for the last three years, etc...

That is still one fugly contract...

Lou's is not much better at 5.33 mil for another ten years either...

[DL44]

Yeah... that contract is only fat for 6 yrs....

6yrs. they'll easily maneuver their payroll around that... factor in the CBA, and their increasing fan support... I believe they'll be setting a franchise record for season tickets this coming coming season - or the most since the first yr or something like that.

After 6 PRIME Weber yrs as he reaches the ripe ol age of... 32..

His remaining contract:

6 mil, 6 mil, 6 mil, 6mil, 3 mil, 1, 1, 1.

Long term, this deal looks outstanding.

$80 mil over the first 6 tho($13.3mil/yr)... well... heh heh... maybe they get what they pay for in the form of fan retainment, ticket sales, PR, playoff success, and attracting players.

They'll be laughing tho as he's 32 and is still prime making $6/yr... Whatever pills they'll be swallowing early will be eased by yr 7..

When was Lidstrom's 1st Norris? when he was 31?

Now if he just remains concussion free...

[Flyerfan52]

The Down Goes Brown take is worth reading.

[bosn111]

Well, I guess I was wrong and I will admit it. I guess the owners are willing to throw more money out there than expected. I still think they need to replace Suter and bring in at least 1 or 2 more offensive type forwards to remain successful.

[C_worthy]

Well, I guess I was wrong and I will admit it. I guess the owners are willing to throw more money out there than expected. I still think they need to replace Suter and bring in at least 1 or 2 more offensive type forwards to remain successful.

That's the thing...

By keeping Weber, they are committing to winning now (no sense in paying him that kind of money just to build for the future). But they are at least 2 or 3 good players away from being contenders. It's not just the $14m per year, they are all in now and that could mean another $10m or so. Otherwise, they are wasting their time (and money).

[Demonous_Xodus]

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=401450

"It is a very exciting time for the Predators organization and myself," Weber said. "It is a big step in the right direction. The ownership showed a commitment here obviously in the last week. Going forward, now I can focus on the important stuff: getting ready for the season and getting ready to go this year."

Guy totally wanted out, right?