jjgallow
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Everything posted by jjgallow
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Wow DirtyDeeds, thanks. That's an amazing read. I don't agree with lots of it, of course, but that's just my charming nature I do agree that goaltenders don't peak quite as we sometimes suspect. Possibly due to the reputation factor. It is the least-understood position in hockey, and thus reputation is relied on more heavily. Kipper Really Did peak in 2006, by any performance that can be measured. But he was, and still is, revered by Flames fans and professionals alike for that performance. And it's not like his performance suddenly dropped off, either. he was good right up until...2013ish. I'm not saying that he can't be a true starting goaltender for a contending team. I'm just saying that he chances are extremely remote of developing that much more, this late in his career. I'm also not saying he can't be a starter for us. Becuase we have a LONG ways to go before we're a contender. He's as good as anyone, starting for us. But when you think of our next big cup run, you're looking at goalies Ortio's age or younger. Honestly, we are. Ortio will probably be in his mid-late 20's when that happens (or Gillies, etc). As Kipper was in 2006. And Ramo....well he might do what Tim Thomas did. And he most highly likely won't.
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Fair. True. But we've come a long way from the time that it was everything But Ortio. Also true, in a sense. Sure he did. Absolutely, I agree. But he also peaked in 2006. He was roughly the same age Ramo is now. Yup. Gotta hand it to him. They are decent. As our most goalie's numbers if you take their best 23 games. If he keeps it up...then yeah. But.... His very isolated, selected, best numbers. Viewing his wins as 11-6-3, instead of 11 wins in 23 games. Ignoring some things...like...the majority of the season. Then, from this perspective, you're right. I'm just being ignorant.
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I'm not guaranteeing it will happen, but I can definitely see it...possibly expect it. Ortio has gone from ECHL to AHL to NHL... in one season. If we're going to talk about development this season, the conversation is about Ortio. Yes, Ramo has shown some improvement, I still see him as a backup who occassionally has good games that make him look like a starter. that is also what his numbers suggest. Next season, I also expect most of the development to come from Ortio (and possibly Gillies). I think we would be Extremely lucky if Ramo had a better season next year than this year. At his age. And, that makes him a backup goaltender. Sure, he's somewhat proven me wrong with his play, and the starting position is his to lose now. But I DO see him losing it. Fantastic game last night though, I will say.
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I suppose we shouldn't forget Gillies in this picture either. He struggled a bit after the Olympics, it obviously affected him. However, he has come around lately with his usual display of strong games. Actually, he just came off a 6-game winning streak where he never allowed more than 2 goals. IMHO, he could be strong enough to start for the Heat next year. I'll try not to think about Burke's comments. We could have Ortio sharing with Ramo next year (and I see Ortio taking the lead in that as the season progresses), and Gillies starting with the Heat next year. That would be nice....Real nice.
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Yeah, it totally would have been. but it wasn't...
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Oh....and they need them! They are no longer the favourites. .......if the Flames move up a few spots in the draft, so be it
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I thought everything was "simple"? Don't worry, this is awkward for me too. I agree with a management decision.
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I did reword your post....for brevity and some lite humor I honestly don't see the difference in meaning....you're saying Ortio is flawed if he loses his confidence. I agree that One demotion on its own is acceptable. Ortio has already been bounced around by this organization though....he's responded well but its impacted his development. He has played im the echl, ahl, nhl, and europe...in just the last year. Just sayin. He may also continue to play great at the nhl level....and nothing would make me happier
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I know, you didn't...but you've always got this extra edge that keeps me coming back, lol. I believe it was along the lines of.... if Ortio loses confidence, he's not an NHL goaltender anyway. Common man!
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I kind of feel like a mediator of extremes, all the while being called extreme by both sides, lol. I've spent 95% of my time on this thread saying Ortio is under-rated, and met with very harsh criticism. Now, I'm saying "woah guys...he's not That good...at least, not Quite yet".....and, also being strongly disagreed with.... The one constant on here is that none of us ever agree. And maybe that's okay. Lord knows we can't get away with this at work or at home. Personally, I find it odd that we were So, sooooo delicate with Ramo and Berra. "we can't make a judgement 5 games in..don't be so quick to judge....and adjustment period is needed"....etc...... Then with a 22 year old kid who has the potential to be the future face of our franchise... "throw him in there! Sink or swim! If he can't handle the pressure he doesn't belong here!" But whatever, it's all good, and fun to watch
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He really is making a case for himself. But, we've said this about other goaltenders too, and the Moment they disappointed us, we disappeared them. Henrik Karlsson the "Calgary Tower", our savior, comes to mind. Oh...and so does Ortio with his original AHL showing. Then there's...cough cough...Baertschi. Who nearly everyone was on board with starting the NHL early due to his point production. In hindsight....it's a different story. Now, when we think of how easy it is to rush wingers, multiply that by 10 and you have goaltenders. Both Ramo and Berra started out with some tremendous pre-season and early season promise, and then reality set in as teams started arriving having reviewed their style, fully equipped with knowledge and instruction on the best way to score on them. That will come soon with Ortio. It is a real risk and our organization has a history of misinterpreting it. Goaltenders have a history of their confidence getting shattered. If we were going for a cup this year, I would say it's worth it. Ironically, my guess is if we were going for a cup, management would go with a veteran like JMac. It's a question of risk. There is very little risk in developing Ortio slow. Their are very real, dangerous risks of pushing his development too fast. We will only know about them wen it's too late. But it will be very hard to justify them in hindsight, with a "2014 cup run" argument. I would ask if we're actually in a rush here. Also, if Ortio stays up, there is the potential for the Heat losing their playoff positioning, or potentially even missing the playoffs. And that potentially means 25 less games of crucial playoff development for Ortio this year. Personally, I think the playoff development is more important than the early NHL development, if you consider our long-term goals. Ortio has shown to raise his level in the playoffs before, and this is something that should be developed further. If The Flames manage to work all of this out, and Ortio gets NHL experience AND playoff experience, great. But this kind of thing usually comes at a cost.
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Well....at the end of the day we both agree it's foolish to compare. I don't think it's ever reasonable to expect the Flames to bee 100% healthy and I'm not sure they have been, or will be, this season. But ok. The question is....do we Really need to know who gives us the better chance of winning? I'm not saying we should throw Olivier Roy in there for the rest of the season. But, to me, the whole debate is pointless because I'd rather see Ortio winning a cup this year with the Heat and getting an extra 25 games of development, rather than playing for the Flames in the hopes of gaining a few extra points which will amount to absolutely jack squat. IMHO, Ortio's time is next season. But by that time, he may have won a championship and will be going after the starting position. But that's neither here nor now.
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thx Carty
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I'm pretty sure Ramo's #s were actually worse when some of these key players were in the lineup, actually. I agree that you can't easily compare them, but not because it's a different team. Clearly, it's not a different team. You can't easily compare them, because Ortio is 22 years old. Neither Ramo or Berra were anywhere near NHL-ready at this age. We should be excited that we have a 22-year old goalie which has shown himself to be either nearly, or fully NHL ready, at the age of 22, with his best goaltending likely years ahead of him. To be completely honest, I hope Ramo (thanks Carty) takes over when healthy, because I'd rather see Ortio take the Heat on a playoff run. I think it would better-develop him for next year. Who's the better 22-year-old goaltender? Ortio hands down. Who's the better goaltender right now? If you think it's Ramo, great. There's an arguement to be made there, and I'd rather see Ortio shoot for a championship anyway.
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Ok, well at the end of the day, I asked you for an alternative to winning percentage and you gave me winning percentage. ....but skewed. I am genuinely confused by that. If you want to tell me I own winning percentage...as if it were a piece of property or a trademark. ..you are free to do that but I fail to see the relevancy. You can gather a list of big names currently struggling or at the end of their careers...and compare them to Ramo in his prime. You can develop your own stats theory which relies on comparing Ramo's bad stats to other goalies which also have bad stats, and concluding that Ramo is better than them or as good as them based on a "closeness" logic you have developed. You can compare Ramo with 22 year old prospects straight up to prove your point, ignoring common stats where Ortio is significantly better, such as Goals Against. Then you can take other stats, like save percentage, and reverse your "closeness" logic to claim that Ramo is significantly better. You can ignore the fundamental problem that Ramo, in his prime, generally ranks 50th to 55th in the league for Most stats (whereas Ortio, for instance, ranks as high as 24th, playing for the same team). Then, with Ramo ranking in the 50's, claim that he is disadvantaged playing for the 26th overall Flames. And, you can do this with the assumption that the NHL not only has room for 55 starting goaltenders, but it has room for 55 top-10 goaltenders. You can do all of these things. If you think it wise. But if you think this is going to be a fast rebuild, Think again. (you may recall the whole basis of your theory is how bad you think the Flames are. And I have not argued this point with you).
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Ok....i have to point out the problem here...I asked if you had an alternative to winning percentage, and you presented me with winning percentage. I'll give you this....I did not expect it or see it coming The only difference is you're comparing regulation wins to regulation losses, where he wasn't pulled. Which is not how .500 hockey is calculated. Question: Does 11 + 10 + 4 = 29? If not, what was the outcome of those other 4 games and how did that come to be? By.....whom? Just wondering, as these are some of the worst numbers of Lundquist's career. It's almost as if you went and looked for a goalie in a slump? http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8468685 Also wondering how you see those save percentages as similar? I sincerely don't understand....basically all of them? http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20142ALLGAGALL&sort=savePercentage&viewName=summary
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Sorry, when you said "record", I interpreted that as looking at his wins. I agree that it's not a fair measurement. But, usually when someone calls a stat poor, they present a better, alternative stat. What stat are you looking at that makes Ramo look good?
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Is it? If so, most others on here are making the same presumption. That's a lot presumptuous. He has two more wins than Bera in the same number of games (29). Hardly significant. The best winning percentage we have is with Joey Mac, 3 wins in 7 games. Same team. Goalies who are not too old for a rebuild are my fave. That's Ortio, Gillies, and Roy. Ramo will be well into his 30's, with bad knees, before we are a contender again, most likely. We all hope it'll be sooner than that but we can't plan that way. The reallity is we are still depleted and at the beginning of a rebuild. If you believe that you build out from your goaltender...and I do...you don't build out from a goaltender in their late 20's. Ramo could be a good backup. I think we could do better.
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That will be fun!!! I can't wait. Ramo is a weak starter at best, to be honest. So whoever wins that battle next year is okay. More than likely, split duties with the assumption (hope) that Ortio gradually assumes a true starter position as the season progresses. And if it takes two seasons, that's okay too. The kid has 4 years to go before he's the same age Kipper was when he became a Flame.
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Well, I don't see calling Ortio up to the NHL this year as ideal. But, if you're going to do it, play him. And they've done that. IMHO, he is Very close to NHL starter quality, but ultimately not there. I'm not sure that he's getting any better development up here than starting for the Heat, but there is one Real advantage of all this: Most likely a higher draft pick. Not to knock Ortio at all....the kid's 22. He'll be up to par soon enough if he keeps improving at the rate he is. If the experiences moves us up a spot or two in the draft... ....so be it.
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Well, he Does have 5 stars....that's got to count for something http://www.healthgrades.com/physician/dr-michael-bogdanovich-2cg27
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Any word yet on whether we're dealing with Ortio or JMac staying up? My vote is definitely JMac as the backup, and it looks like others feel this way. Strictly for more consistent and complete development for Ortio, including the Heat's playoff run. However, I have this horrible feelling that they will call Ortio up and bench him for the rest of the year. Which would suck, because what's the point of acquiring a 2nd round pick if you need to ruin the development of a top prospect to do it? But I'll save my whining and bantering...until we know more.
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exactly. exactly. There will always be the arguement that our defense isn't good enough either. And, this is true. But both are true. We need upgrades in goal, as well as defense. Probably moreso at defense. The fact that Both are true, does not make either one of them Untrue, though. We clearly need upgrades at both positions. Ortio is young enough that he has the potential to be that upgrade in net. At 22 years of age, he can already hold his own in the NHL (with some question marks of course), and dominate at the AHL level. If he continues to raise the level of his game, and we have every reason to think he will...the next step is clearly going to be an upgrade for us with the Flames. Outside of Ortio, I see no other succession plan in place for next year. Not at the NHL level. Gillies could take over for Ortio with the Heat, but even that is up in the air. Now, even if Ortio takes the reigns with the Flames next year, we probably won't know if he's an NHL starter or an NHL back up until roughly 2016. At which point we may or may not have Gillies as an alternative. In other words, we're far from out of the woods. Not that it matters, because imho, our biggest problem for Burke to focus on is actually defense. *side note...currently the Heat are playing JMac, and Ortio is being benched as a backup with the Flames. This tells me that the Flames value Ortio higher, yet also confirms that they are Still brain dead when it comes to goalie development. Which is unfortunate, when you consider how much is riding on the success of Ortio's development. Gillies has not had the year many hoped he would. Brossoit was dealt away...largely because the Flames felt they "had it in the bag" with Gillies. Not that the Flames incompetence here bothers me. At all.
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I have a hard time getting past this first sentence, personally.
