2024 NHL draft - A New Hope

[cberg]

2 hours ago, cberg said:

That brings up a good point.  Everyone looks at the positives, how about we go through the top15 or so and focus on their weaknesses?

Just back from anniversary dinner so here’s a few thoughts, without a lot of research, looking at a few potential weaknesses.  
 

First thing I think of is injuries , and specifically back issues with Lindstrom.  Not sure the severity, but is definitely something to consider and may be more of an opportunity than anything.  Think about Eichel, Monahan, Roberts as examples…

 

Second, how about the availability issue, with two different versions, Russians(KHL contracts) and US college players and their ability to walk… 

 

Thirdly, size, specifically too small.  Gaudreau was a great example, elite during the season when things were loose but way too easy to shut down when teams started focusing on checking.  Also, more apt to get injured?

 

Fourthly, too timid, fold when pressed.  How about very talented Jankowski or recently hyper-talented Ruzicka?  
 

Fifthly, what I’d call “character flaws”… like homesick (for the US?), party types, difficult learners, stats hounds versus team players?  
 

Sixly, early development then fizzles?  Literally a man among boys but never develops further… Age issues?  

 

Seventh mental resilience and attitude.  Do you think someone like a Tij Iginla, or previously Matthew Tkachuk has a vas ly different perspective (ie championships) having grown up with superstars versus someone just happy to be there?
 

Finally, single fatal flaw eg Skating or can’t think the game fast enough?

 

These are some of the obvious things I think might help differentiate prospects and our draft preferences.  I’ll do some more research relative to these prospects, any thoughts?
 

[Thebrewcrew]

26 minutes ago, cberg said:

Just back from anniversary dinner so here’s a few thoughts, without a lot of research, looking at a few potential weaknesses.  
 

First thing I think of is injuries , and specifically back issues with Lindstrom.  Not sure the severity, but is definitely something to consider and may be more of an opportunity than anything.  Think about Eichel, Monahan, Roberts as examples…

 

Second, how about the availability issue, with two different versions, Russians(KHL contracts) and US college players and their ability to walk… 

 

Thirdly, size, specifically too small.  Gaudreau was a great example, elite during the season when things were loose but way too easy to shut down when teams started focusing on checking.  Also, more apt to get injured?

 

Fourthly, too timid, fold when pressed.  How about very talented Jankowski or recently hyper-talented Ruzicka?  
 

Fifthly, what I’d call “character flaws”… like homesick (for the US?), party types, difficult learners, stats hounds versus team players?  
 

Sixly, early development then fizzles?  Literally a man among boys but never develops further… Age issues?  

 

Seventh mental resilience and attitude.  Do you think someone like a Tij Iginla, or previously Matthew Tkachuk has a vas ly different perspective (ie championships) having grown up with superstars versus someone just happy to be there?
 

Finally, single fatal flaw eg Skating or can’t think the game fast enough?

 

These are some of the obvious things I think might help differentiate prospects and our draft preferences.  I’ll do some more research relative to these prospects, any thoughts?
 

Cayden Lindstrom is now back in the lineup with Medicine Hat. I believe it was a broken wrist that sidelined him this season. Not something I would be too worried about long-term. He projects as a centre, which is very interesting.

 

 

With Eiserman, he's a natural goal scorer. Hard to find. He's working to rectify this, but he's a guy that can go invisible if he's not scoring and at times, the work away from the puck is an issue. My concern would be, can his game translate to the next level? The NTDP has produced some similar profile players in recent years, Debrincat, Caufield, Kaliyev, Wahlstrom. Skeptics view him similarily to Wahlstrom as a guy that got to the NHL on an elite shot, but has struggled to adapt to the best league in the world. Signability is not a concern for me. His draft status would dictate he gets a very bonus heavy ELC. If on the (very) small chance he says no thanks, you get a Cutter Gauthier for Drysdale type return. My only other concern with Eiserman isn't about the player necessarily, it's more philosophical. He's a LW, the organization needs C, RW and D. C and D should be more a priority. The Flames have a logjam of wingers because in their mind the LW has always been the best available option. I agree with BPA, to an extent, but eventually you reach the point where you end up like the current Flames. Tons of wingers, no centres and a skeleton crew on D.

 

Sorry for the long post. I guess to put a bow on it, I would be fine if they took Eiserman. He's an exciting prospect, he can sure score. The thing I would wrestle with the most if I'm the Flames, do you take Eiserman or a Dickinson/Buium? Personally, I'd address the blueline, but I can understand being tempted by the 30 goal upside.

[Thebrewcrew]

Hat-trick for Iginla tonight and one for Parascak with PG.

[conundrumed]

4 hours ago, The_People1 said:

 

Don't Jinx it please

I'm aiming for reverse psychology!

[conundrumed]

If our 1st pick is, say 8, should be in the ballpark, just to break it down, our picks are:

8.

27ish. (via VAN)

40.

60ish. (via DAL)

72.

Before "conditions" kicks in.

What are you all thinking here?

I feel like the D pool in this draft is awefully strong.

Get one of the top 4 at 8. But more interesting, when you get to 27ish and Pulkkinen or Jiricek are still on the board....they won't see 40, do you do it?

I think that I'd be okay with that.

Thoughts?

[cberg]

11 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Cayden Lindstrom is now back in the lineup with Medicine Hat. I believe it was a broken wrist that sidelined him this season. Not something I would be too worried about long-term. He projects as a centre, which is very interesting.

 

 

With Eiserman, he's a natural goal scorer. Hard to find. He's working to rectify this, but he's a guy that can go invisible if he's not scoring and at times, the work away from the puck is an issue. My concern would be, can his game translate to the next level? The NTDP has produced some similar profile players in recent years, Debrincat, Caufield, Kaliyev, Wahlstrom. Skeptics view him similarily to Wahlstrom as a guy that got to the NHL on an elite shot, but has struggled to adapt to the best league in the world. Signability is not a concern for me. His draft status would dictate he gets a very bonus heavy ELC. If on the (very) small chance he says no thanks, you get a Cutter Gauthier for Drysdale type return. My only other concern with Eiserman isn't about the player necessarily, it's more philosophical. He's a LW, the organization needs C, RW and D. C and D should be more a priority. The Flames have a logjam of wingers because in their mind the LW has always been the best available option. I agree with BPA, to an extent, but eventually you reach the point where you end up like the current Flames. Tons of wingers, no centres and a skeleton crew on D.

 

Sorry for the long post. I guess to put a bow on it, I would be fine if they took Eiserman. He's an exciting prospect, he can sure score. The thing I would wrestle with the most if I'm the Flames, do you take Eiserman or a Dickinson/Buium? Personally, I'd address the blueline, but I can understand being tempted by the 30 goal upside.

Good comments, he kind of sounds like Coronato who is already here, except LSLW.  The Cutter Gauthier trade is the ideal levelling scenario we always like to think will happen, but in memory that is pretty rare.

 

Looking at the Sportsnet Top50, starting at Demidov. He sounds good, but injured 2 months this year in the KHL and returned in Junior.  Not sure about the injury nor any KHL issues/contracts.  Talent-wise like a young Kuzmenko?

 

Levshunov a big RSRD, an offensive force with developing D skills.  This is pretty typical, already playing in NAmerica US College so presumably available to sign and go pro immediately.

 

Silyav a giant defensive D, with excellent skating and defensive abilities.  NOTE: According to today’s Flamesnation article, Silayev has KHL D scoring record for under-17s, and compared to a cross between Pronger and Chara.  Ok…. A serious pause might be that he is signed with the KHL and apparently would not be available to come to NAmerica until the 26-27 season, 3 full seasons away, ouch.  Plus, for the Flames, they've just picked up multiple developing defensive D so not a high need here???

 

Yakemchuck RSRD is a big, mobile offensive D with grit and physicality.  Seems a lot like a young Sergachev, as a floor?  He played in Calgary, so a local boy and huge rise this past year, also very young so a late developer.  Sportsnet's #5 ranking highest I've seen, elsewhere down to the 10-15 range.  Scored 1 more point than Dickinson, with twice the goals... Saw him last week and he was definitely noticeable and a play driver, kind of reminded me of an offensively-gifted Kylington.  Other comments here commented poor skating details, I defer...? Yakemchuk one of my favourites.

 

Dickinson, exceptional skater, but comments about "urgency and defensive details" ...hmmm. Flames also have 3 prospects of the exact same mold, with Bzystevitz having 50% more scoring, may not be the highest need. Poirier and Morin also here and developing.

 

Catton a dynamic offensive dynamo, somewhat smallish but not overly so.  Scored 54G62A but only a +15 in the season.  Noted improving defensive commitment so that's good, but probably a weakness, though utilized in all situations so not just offensive.  Speculated as Top5 pick.  

 

Will continue.... Out of these guys I'd be looking at Levshunov/Yakumchuk as good targets, like Yakumchuk best as local and late-bloomer.

[cberg]

14 minutes ago, cberg said:

Good comments, he kind of sounds like Coronato who is already here, except LSLW.  The Cutter Gauthier trade is the ideal levelling scenario we always like to think will happen, but in memory that is pretty rare.

 

Looking at the Sportsnet Top50, starting at Demidov. He sounds good, but injured 2 months this year in the KHL and returned in Junior.  Not sure about the injury nor any KHL issues/contracts.  Talent-wise like a young Kuzmenko?

 

Levshunov a big RSRD, an offensive force with developing D skills.  This is pretty typical, already playing in NAmerica US College so presumably available to sign and go pro immediately.

 

Silyav a giant defensive D, with excellent skating and defensive abilities.  A serious pause might be that he is signed with the KHL and apparently would not be available to come to NAmerica until the 26-27 season, 3 full seasons away, ouch.  Plus, for the Flames, they've just picked up multiple developing defensive D so not a high need here.

 

Yakemchuck RSRD is a big, mobile offensive D with grit and physicality.  Seems a lot like a young Sergachev, as a floor?  He played in Calgary, so a local boy and huge rise this past year, also very young so a late developer.  Sportsnet's #5 ranking highest I've seen, elsewhere down to the 10-15 range.  Scored 1 more point than Dickinson, with twice the goals... Saw him last week and he was definitely noticeable and a play driver, kind of reminded me of an offensively-gifted Kylington.  Other comments here commented poor skating details, I defer...? Yakemchuk one of my favourites.

 

Dickinson, exceptional skater, but comments about "urgency and defensive details" ...hmmm. Flames also have 3 prospects of the exact same mold, with Bzystevitz having 50% more scoring, may not be the highest need. Poirier and Morin also here and developing.

 

Catton a dynamic offensive dynamo, somewhat smallish but not overly so.  Scored 54G62A but only a +15 in the season.  Noted improving defensive commitment so that's good, but probably a weakness, though utilized in all situations so not just offensive.  Speculated as Top5 pick.  

 

Will continue.... Out of these guys I'd be looking at Levshunov/Yakumchuk as good targets, like Yakumchuk best as local and late-bloomer.

Buium, D, good size, defensive pushback, extreme competitiveness, elite offensive upside 11G37A, +32... sounds good all-around... why at #8?  

 

Parekh, RSRD, great offensively, PP QB, poor physicality, defensive awareness?

 

Lindstrom, was injured, only 32 games but 27G19A, back playing.  Matched against top lines... Multiple forward positions... 

 

Iginla, can't find any negatives, noted fantastic hockey sense, expect anything different from Jerome-trained and coached kid? Just had a hat trick in first WHL payoff game...

 

Greentree, many PP goals, IQ?  Limited physicality, apparently...

 

Overall, of these, Iginla tops my list, while Buium seems excellent all-round, both with few weaknesses.  I'd also add in Lindstrom though at a slightly lower level.   

[cberg]

7 hours ago, conundrumed said:

If our 1st pick is, say 8, should be in the ballpark, just to break it down, our picks are:

8.

27ish. (via VAN)

40.

60ish. (via DAL)

72.

Before "conditions" kicks in.

What are you all thinking here?

I feel like the D pool in this draft is awefully strong.

Get one of the top 4 at 8. But more interesting, when you get to 27ish and Pulkkinen or Jiricek are still on the board....they won't see 40, do you do it?

I think that I'd be okay with that.

Thoughts?

Just read a great write-up on a huge, late-developing guy named Letourneau(Tage Thompson 2.0?) who seems very interesting for around the late 1st/2nd round.  Seems like a possible home run swing for the VCR 1st?  

[The_People1]

As of now, my draft rankings.

 

1. Celebrini

2. Demidov

3. Levshunkov

4. Dickinson

5. Bruium

6. Yakemchuk

7. Silayev

8. Parekh

 

And then all Forwards start at #9... 

[cberg]

4 hours ago, The_People1 said:

As of now, my draft rankings.

 

1. Celebrini

2. Demidov

3. Levshunkov

4. Dickinson

5. Bruium

6. Yakemchuk

7. Silayev

8. Parekh

 

And then all Forwards start at #9... 

Seems like all those guys are “can’t miss” prospects, even though this draft deemed a weaker one.  Perhaps that is relative only after pick 20?  I would be hard-pressed not to take Iginla, hence my desire to find a way to move/get another 1st to take him along with one of the D(afterDemidov).

[jjgallow]

5 hours ago, The_People1 said:

As of now, my draft rankings.

 

1. Celebrini

2. Demidov

3. Levshunkov

4. Dickinson

5. Bruium

6. Yakemchuk

7. Silayev

8. Parekh

 

And then all Forwards start at #9... 

 

Too many.  Highly unlikely they all live up to expectations, need a filter.

 

With regards to Demidov, Levshunov,  maybe Buium, definitely Silayev, 

 

I have a little rule.   If they can't score goals, something is amiss.   Now granted, some of this is obscured because a few of these guys are playing pro hockey already so it's not clear cut.     but usually there are at least samples of them in junior.

 

I get a little, tiny bit concerned when I see an assist-heavy group.   I already know this will piss a number of people off lol, and I get it, sorry.

 

Not an NHL goal scorer? Okay.  fine.

 

It's not a death sentence.   Applying this rule could mean missing out on a Zdeno Chara or a Mark Giordano (although a number of these guys scored less goals than even Giordano, who went undrafted).    Just, odds-wise, generally one Should be able to put up goals.   Even if they're not an NHL goal scorer (you can be a first-line NHL D without being a goal scorer).

 

The thing is, The Zdeno Charas and the Mark Giordanos, for every one of them who becomes a star, there are maybe 200 that don't.    Not very enticing odds for a first round pick.    I prefer to take my risks on guys who can't put the puck in the net in later rounds.

[Thebrewcrew]

12 hours ago, conundrumed said:

If our 1st pick is, say 8, should be in the ballpark, just to break it down, our picks are:

8.

27ish. (via VAN)

40.

60ish. (via DAL)

72.

Before "conditions" kicks in.

What are you all thinking here?

I feel like the D pool in this draft is awefully strong.

Get one of the top 4 at 8. But more interesting, when you get to 27ish and Pulkkinen or Jiricek are still on the board....they won't see 40, do you do it?

I think that I'd be okay with that.

Thoughts?

CGY- 1st

Dickinson, Buium, Catton, Helenius, Lindstrom

 

VAN 1st- Lucas Pettersson, Michael Hage, Jett Luchanko, Tanner Howe

 

CGY 2nd- Alfons Freij, Dominik Badinka, Marek Vanaker, Miguel Marques

 

DAL 2nd- Charlie Elick, John Mustard, Luke Misa, Linus Eriksson

 

3rd round- would target a goalie. I’ve liked Chase Wutzke with Red Deer this year. Lukas

Matecha with Tri City had a really solid year, on a bad team. 
 

I would look at Justin Poirier if he’s still on the board too. Also Anthony Romani

[The_People1]

3 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

Too many.  Highly unlikely they all live up to expectations, need a filter.

 

With regards to Demidov, Levshunov,  maybe Buium, definitely Silayev, 

 

I have a little rule.   If they can't score goals, something is amiss.   Now granted, some of this is obscured because a few of these guys are playing pro hockey already so it's not clear cut.     but usually there are at least samples of them in junior.

 

I get a little, tiny bit concerned when I see an assist-heavy group.   I already know this will piss a number of people off lol, and I get it, sorry.

 

Not an NHL goal scorer? Okay.  fine.

 

It's not a death sentence.   Applying this rule could mean missing out on a Zdeno Chara or a Mark Giordano (although a number of these guys scored less goals than even Giordano, who went undrafted).    Just, odds-wise, generally one Should be able to put up goals.   Even if they're not an NHL goal scorer (you can be a first-line NHL D without being a goal scorer).

 

The thing is, The Zdeno Charas and the Mark Giordanos, for every one of them who becomes a star, there are maybe 200 that don't.    Not very enticing odds for a first round pick.    I prefer to take my risks on guys who can't put the puck in the net in later rounds.

 

Too many D or what do you mean too many?

 

I feel the Flames need to prioritize D this draft and the top 8 on the rankings list need to basically be all D.

[cberg]

19 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Too many D or what do you mean too many?

 

I feel the Flames need to prioritize D this draft and the top 8 on the rankings list need to basically be all D.

I believe the focus needs to be D and C.  Flames seriously lacking in both.

[jjgallow]

4 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Too many D or what do you mean too many?

 

I feel the Flames need to prioritize D this draft and the top 8 on the rankings list need to basically be all D.

 

Where is Jiricek in your rankings bro?  before getting into philosphy, I ask this.

 

philosophy and such:

 

They have needed this for quite a few years now, but passed them over, as you know, under a relatively impatient GM with short term goals (stepping stone to Toronto).

 

I don't deny that.   It's tricky because I also don't know if drafting positionally is wise.   The only thing that could make it wise is that they've positionally avoided D for some time.  

 

BUT.

 

If one guy projects to be a 2nd liner and another guy projects to be a hall-of-famer, you take the higher ceiling no matter what position they are.   

 

I don't agree with stacking them like this as a top 8 ranking, because I don't agree that these are the 8 best players.  Not by a long stretch.    But I DO agree that if we Simply followed BPA, we would Highly likely end up with a D in the first round.  Mostly because many impatient GMs overlook them and let them drop.

 

The Flames need a top D prospect.  Yes.  The should have drafted them in the first round last year, as they were clearly BPA, and I would suggest the two years prior as well.

 

You are suggesting that we "fix" it in this draft.   I just don't know.     If it happens it happens, but it should not be rash or hasty.   Maybe Tij goes 3rd overall and maybe Demodov lands to us.  Or maybe we win the lottery and ...then we....pass on Celebrini?  

 

It's hard man.  So many possibilities.   The best thing you can do is make a REAL-Hash Rate list.  Not a pretend list.  Make a Real list.   and yeah more than half the time, a D will land to you anyway.  there's no need to go further than that.

 

But I do want Tij and I actually think he is better than better.  I actually think he might be ranked a bit lower Because of his Dad.

 

At the end of the day, we need an elite D prospect.  Straight up.  Preferably two of them.

 

I would propose that acquiring them through a trade, though, is also an option.   So I would play this draft cool, personally, and get as much value as we can.   And if we still need an elite D after the draft, Make that trade.

[cberg]

3 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:

CGY- 1st

Dickinson, Buium, Catton, Helenius, Lindstrom

 

VAN 1st- Lucas Pettersson, Michael Hage, Jett Luchanko, Tanner Howe

 

CGY 2nd- Alfons Freij, Dominik Badinka, Marek Vanaker, Miguel Marques

 

DAL 2nd- Charlie Elick, John Mustard, Luke Misa, Linus Eriksson

 

3rd round- would target a goalie. I’ve liked Chase Wutzke with Red Deer this year. Lukas

Matecha with Tri City had a really solid year, on a bad team. 
 

I would look at Justin Poirier if he’s still on the board too. Also Anthony Romani

The Calgary 1st group is your top players, or what you are assuming is left to choose from?  Who are you assuming is already gone at Flames pick?

[The_People1]

4 minutes ago, cberg said:

I believe the focus needs to be D and C.  Flames seriously lacking in both.

 

Since this is the first year of retool, go with D.  They take longer to develop.

[The_People1]

4 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Where is Jiricek in your rankings bro?  before getting into philosphy, I ask this.

 

philosophy and such:

 

They have needed this for quite a few years now, but passed them over, as you know, under a relatively impatient GM with short term goals (stepping stone to Toronto).

 

I don't deny that.   It's tricky because I also don't know if drafting positionally is wise.   The only thing that could make it wise is that they've positionally avoided D for some time.  

 

BUT.

 

If one guy projects to be a 2nd liner and another guy projects to be a hall-of-famer, you take the higher ceiling no matter what position they are.   

 

I don't agree with stacking them like this as a top 8 ranking, because I don't agree that these are the 8 best players.  Not by a long stretch.    But I DO agree that if we Simply followed BPA, we would Highly likely end up with a D in the first round.  Mostly because many impatient GMs overlook them and let them drop.

 

The Flames need a top D prospect.  Yes.  The should have drafted them in the first round last year, as they were clearly BPA, and I would suggest the two years prior as well.

 

You are suggesting that we "fix" it in this draft.   I just don't know.     If it happens it happens, but it should not be rash or hasty.   Maybe Tij goes 3rd overall and maybe Demodov lands to us.  Or maybe we win the lottery and ...then we....pass on Celebrini?  

 

It's hard man.  So many possibilities.   The best thing you can do is make a REAL-Hash Rate list.  Not a pretend list.  Make a Real list.   and yeah more than half the time, a D will land to you anyway.  there's no need to go further than that.

 

But I do want Tij and I actually think he is better than better.  I actually think he might be ranked a bit lower Because of his Dad.

 

At the end of the day, we need an elite D prospect.  Straight up.  Preferably two of them.

 

I would propose that acquiring them through a trade, though, is also an option.   So I would play this draft cool, personally, and get as much value as we can.   And if we still need an elite D after the draft, Make that trade.

 

Nah, just put Catton, Lindstrom, and Eiserman on Do Not Draft List.  It's not the first piece we need in this first year of a retool.  We will get more opportunities to draft high end W in the next 3 drafts.  Get a D first this year.  The talent gap is so small that we should be picking based on position.  

[jjgallow]

6 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Nah, just put Catton, Lindstrom, and Eiserman on Do Not Draft List.  It's not the first piece we need in this first year of a retool.  We will get more opportunities to draft high end W in the next 3 drafts.  Get a D first this year.  The talent gap is so small that we should be picking based on position.  

 

To us it looks like a small gap.    But if the organisation thinks it's a small gap, then they need to ramp up their scouting.  Rest assured a couple of these guys will become legends, half will have decent careers, and the rest will be flops.   Getting that right supercedes our positional needs right now.   

but I Do agree that either strategy has a high chance of landing a D.

 

Or Tij, though.  Or Tij.    Then you need that post-draft trade.

[cberg]

59 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

To us it looks like a small gap.    But if the organisation thinks it's a small gap, then they need to ramp up their scouting.  Rest assured a couple of these guys will become legends, half will have decent careers, and the rest will be flops.   Getting that right supercedes our positional needs right now.   

but I Do agree that either strategy has a high chance of landing a D.

 

Or Tij, though.  Or Tij.    Then you need that post-draft trade.

Agree with assessment of the draft, several will flop, many ok, a few great.  Which are they?  Could Tij end up the best of the draft?  Very possible, these are 17/18year olds.  An elite D would also be great…

[conundrumed]

31 minutes ago, cberg said:

Could Tij end up the best of the draft?

Or could Liam Greentree?

[jjgallow]

10 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Or could Liam Greentree?

 

Or Terry Ryan?

[cberg]

22 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

Or could Liam Greentree?

Exactly, you have to figure out which will be the best, not necessarily the best player available at the moment.  And since these are 17/18year olds and that is impossible, why you get so much disparity between people/scouts/teams.  Everybody assumes Celebrini IS the best, and WILL BE the best but we all know there are many “consensus” BPA players that flop.  

[conundrumed]

16 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

Or Terry Ryan?

Is he ranked near exactly alongside Iginla like Greentree? Yet on a far worse team with virtually nothing to help his stats?

[The_People1]

2 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

To us it looks like a small gap.    But if the organisation thinks it's a small gap, then they need to ramp up their scouting.  Rest assured a couple of these guys will become legends, half will have decent careers, and the rest will be flops.   Getting that right supercedes our positional needs right now.   

but I Do agree that either strategy has a high chance of landing a D.

 

Or Tij, though.  Or Tij.    Then you need that post-draft trade.

 

If we are going to take a swing at anyone, then take a swing at a D.  We will eventually need Wingers but those are the final pieces to get.  Focus building from the back out.