YoY Comparison

[sak22]

Out of pure boredom of having to work, but not having anything to do leading into the holidays I've decided to look at how this team stacks up against last years team.  My conclusion is that the major difference is goals against, I also believe the 2nd half of last year may have clouded memories of the start of last season as there really isn't much disparity.  For starters team record at this point last year was 17-10-6, essentially there is a 2 win difference as this year is 15-12-6.  The team has scored the exact same amount of goals this year as last at 104.  The 104 goals would put a pace to score 258 for the season, last years team exceed that by 35 goals and finished with 293, goals against is a different story last year was 83 goals against with 7 shutouts, and was on pace for 206 goals against and finished with 208.  This year 103 against on pace for 256. 

 

                                                                                           2021-2022                                                           2022-2023

Players not returned    G              A       Pts     Pace G    Pace Pts      Finished                G           A         Pts      Pace G Pace Pts          Difference

Gaudreau                   15             23     38         36            94                 115

Tkachuk                      16             16     32        40            80                  104

Kylington                     4              15     19        10            48                   31

Monahan                     4              12     16        10            40                   23

Gudbranson                0               6       6          0             15                   17

Richardson                 2                2       4          7            15                    4

Pitlick                         0                2        2          0            7                      2

Players not on team this point last year

Toffoli                                                                                                                                 13           13       26            32           65

Kadri                                                                                                                                  13           13       26            32           65

Huberdeau                                                                                                                         5             17       22            13           58

Weegar                                                                                                                               0             7          7             0            17

Mackey                                                                                                                               2             1          3  

Rooney                                                                                                                               0             1          1  

Gilbert                                                                                                                                 0             1          1  

Returning                   G              A       Pts     Pace G    Pace Pts      Finished                  G           A         Pts      Pace G Pace Pts          Difference     

Lindholm                    12            17       29        30            72                82                         11          20          31            28        78                  -4

Mangiapane               18             3        21        45            52                55                          7             7          14            17        35                 -20

Andersson                  0             16       16         0              40                50                         4            18          22            10        55                   5

Hanifin                        3              8        11         8              28                48                          3            11         14              8         35                 -13

Backlund                     4              7        11        10             27               39                           6            12        18             15        45                   6

Coleman                     6              5        11        15             28                33                          5              7        12              12       30                  -3

Dube                           4              6        10        10             25                32                          7             12      19              17      47                  15

Tanev                          1              7         8          2               20               28                          0              5         5               0        15                -13

Zadorov                       2             4         6          6               17               22                          4              2          6             10        15                -7

Lucic                           8               5      13         20              32               21                          2              6          8              5         21                0

Lewis                          3               4       7           7               17               16                          7              4         11            17        27               11

Stone                          0                0       0           0               0                 6                           3               4          7             9         22               16

Ritchie                        0                 0       0          0                 0                4                           5               2          7           15        21                17

Ruzicka                      1                 0       1                                              10                           6             12        18           18        53               43

 

So last year now to this year now.  Last year this point it was a 4 man show offensively, the team really took off in the 2nd half including Gaudreau and Tkachuk, with the exceptions of Kylington and Lucic everyone who played most games exceeded their pace from the first 33 games.  Scoring from the blueline picked up in the second half last year, and having similar output this year would be welcomed as I wouldn't have expected Weegar to struggle replacing Gudbranson's offense. 

 

With not many differences so far although, the 3 week Covid break can be an excuse for a bit of drops last year, this year really isn't as drastic of a drop off so far as many have indicated.  I don't know if we'll see the offense hit last years numbers but I think it just needs to maintain its current pace, people may not realize but this team is on pace offensively to crush Sutter's cup winning teams, but Sutter hockey will struggle if they are in the middle of the pack in goals against.  There is a lot of hockey left.                            

[conundrumed]

Yup. I'm guilty of getting ornery too, but we are not far off of last year at all. We love us our impatience.lol

We need the boost from Dube, but not the regression from Mangiapane.

[jjgallow]

On 12/22/2022 at 8:33 PM, conundrumed said:

Yup. I'm guilty of getting ornery too, but we are not far off of last year at all. We love us our impatience.lol

We need the boost from Dube, but not the regression from Mangiapane.

 

If all else fails there's this:   

http://www.mynhldraft.com/NHL-Mock-Draft/

 

https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/603587/matthew-wood

 

Strong draft guys.   Matthew Wood is basically a 6'3 version of 5'10 Coronato, who is exciting in his own right.

 

This draft is hard to screw up if you're in the top 15.  Top 15 be like a normal draft's top 10.

[robrob74]

On 12/22/2022 at 7:33 PM, conundrumed said:

Yup. I'm guilty of getting ornery too, but we are not far off of last year at all. We love us our impatience.lol

We need the boost from Dube, but not the regression from Mangiapane.

i know last year I was worried about being a one line team. But I think this year they need to do the same, load up a top line. Start using Rozie as the 3C so he's ready in the playoffs. Keep Zahorna S the 4C. 
 

Hubie, Kadri, Lindy

Mange, Backs, Cole

Rozie/Dube, Dube/Rozie, Toffi

Lewis, Zahorna, Phillips

Looch, Rich

 

or throw Rozie and Zahorna together. They looked good in a third period in one of Zahorna's first few games...

[cross16]

Wanted to take this one step further, especially now given this is a topic of discussion right from the coach. 

(should note there is 8 more games in this year's sample size vs last years)

 

As of Dec 28th 2022. 16-13-7. 39 Points and a 0.542 Points %

5 on 5 (League ranking):

55.74% Corsi F % (3rd)

55.76% FF% (3rd)

56.67% Shots F% (3rd)

52.11 Goals F% (14th)

54.06% Expected Goals for% (5th)

2.37 Expected Goals Against (6th)

52.39% Scoring chances for% (9th) 6th Against. 13th For

52.10% High danger chance for% (13th) 7th Against, 15th For

Save % 90.70 (28th)

High danger save % 81.28 (27th)

SH% 7.74 (26th)

2.45 Goals Against/60. (16th)

2.66 Goals for/60 (11th)

 

 

 

80.4% PK. (10th). 27 Goals against allowed.

PK Save % 86.01%(18th). Interesting to note they are number 1 in High danger Save %

19.3% PP (22nd) 23 Goals For

 

Dec 28th, 2021. 15-7-6 for 36 Points. 0.643 Points %

5 on 5

54.51% Corsi F (3rd)

53.99% FF% (4th)

Shots For% (4th)

Goals for %(3rd)

53.32% Expected Goals For%(6th)

2.29 Expected goals against (4th)

56.32% Scoring chances for % (2nd) 1st Against. 3rd for

53.73% High Danger Chances For%(8th) 8th Against.  14th for

Save% 94.15% (1st)

High Danger Save% 87.04% (3rd)

SH% 7.32% (23rd)

1.64 Goals against/60 at 5 on 5. (1st)

2.44 Goals For/60 at 5 on 5. (13th)

 

 

PP 18 Goals for (15th)

PK 12 Goals Against (4th) 

PK Save % 89.19% (6th)

 

My observations:

Almost identical in terms of the team game at 5 on 5. Scoring chance generation was better last year but high danger similar. 

Really highlights that if you want to know why the goals against is that much higher look at goaltending and the PK. In terms of their underlying metrics there isn't a big difference from last year to this year in terms of their 5 on 5 game. 

15 extra goals against on the PK this year vs last year. Being much more penalized is really hurting them. 

For all the talk about how this team can't score, they are scoring at a higher rate 5 on 5. 

 

Interesting to look at but should be qualified with I do think this year's team has been more inconsistent so when you see things like higher goal rates, or similar defensive metrics I do think it doesn't mean the path to get there has been the same. 

 

Also worth noting that last year's team went on a tear in January. Not trying to draw any conclusions or predictions based on this, just interesting to look at it that while it feels different there are more similarities than differences.