2019-20 ROSTER PLANNING

[robrob74]

31 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

What you detailed kinda matches the eye test as well.

The top two lines have been so much better of late.

Stone is a bad choice in the lineup.

Backlund has turned a corner.

Bennett is better at C.

 

The PP is still a work in progress.

 

Maybe with Gus manning the first unit, it allows the team to put Gio on PP2, and he may have a better time with lesser opponents?

I still like the idea of splitting up the PP to make two good units. But Cross thinks we shouldn't as the 1st unit is something like the 6th best in the league...

 

Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm

Gustafsson, Andersson

 

Tkachuk, Backlund, Mangiapane

Giordano, Dube

 

I haven't really liked Hanifin there. I would even throw Kylington out on the PP over Hanifin. 

Then when the going gets tough and we absolutely need a goal, load up the first unit. 

 

[cross16]

11 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

Maybe with Gus manning the first unit, it allows the team to put Gio on PP2, and he may have a better time with lesser opponents?

I still like the idea of splitting up the PP to make two good units. But Cross thinks we shouldn't as the 1st unit is something like the 6th best in the league...

 

Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm

Gustafsson, Andersson

 

Tkachuk, Backlund, Mangiapane

Giordano, Dube

 

I haven't really liked Hanifin there. I would even throw Kylington out on the PP over Hanifin. 

Then when the going gets tough and we absolutely need a goal, load up the first unit. 

 

 

4th Best. https://www.thepointhockey.com/statistics/

 

Obviously this is not based on rates or efficiency but given that the Flames are in the bottom half of the league in penalty opportunities it would be safe to derive that their success % would be high as well. 

[travel_dude]

11 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

Maybe with Gus manning the first unit, it allows the team to put Gio on PP2, and he may have a better time with lesser opponents?

I still like the idea of splitting up the PP to make two good units. But Cross thinks we shouldn't as the 1st unit is something like the 6th best in the league...

 

Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm

Gustafsson, Andersson

 

Tkachuk, Backlund, Mangiapane

Giordano, Dube

 

I haven't really liked Hanifin there. I would even throw Kylington out on the PP over Hanifin. 

Then when the going gets tough and we absolutely need a goal, load up the first unit. 

 

 

I would explore how well the original #1 unit looks with Gus over Gio.

Go with 2D on the #2 unit.

Gio and Ras.  Dube, Backs and Mangiapane as forwards.

[JTech780]

Hamonic is back practicing withering team wearing a no contact yellow jersey.

 

When he is back where does he for in this lineup, or does he?

 

Giordano-Brodie

Hanifin-Andersson

Gustafsson-Hamonic

 

That looks pretty solid to me. I just have a bad feeling Hamonic is going to be put back with Hanifin, even though it clearly doesn't work.

[cross16]

33 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

Hamonic is back practicing withering team wearing a no contact yellow jersey.

 

When he is back where does he for in this lineup, or does he?

 

Giordano-Brodie

Hanifin-Andersson

Gustafsson-Hamonic

 

That looks pretty solid to me. I just have a bad feeling Hamonic is going to be put back with Hanifin, even though it clearly doesn't work.

 

Agreed on both counts. That is what they should do and also agree it's not likely what they will do. 

 

Andresson has outplayed Hamonic all season and it literally took an injury to Hamonic to elevate him in the lineup. One of the many dumb decision i've seen out of the club this season. I do not understand their love affair with Hamonic. 

[JTech780]

1 minute ago, cross16 said:

 

Agreed on both counts. That is what they should do and also agree it's not likely what they will do. 

 

Andresson has outplayed Hamonic all season and it literally took an injury to Hamonic to elevate him in the lineup. One of the many dumb decision i've seen out of the club this season. I do not understand their love affair with Hamonic. 

 

It's not just Andersson, IMO Hanifin is a different player when paired with Andersson compared to when he is paired with Hamonic. Hanifin looks like a legit top 4 defenseman paired with Andersson and looks like a bottom pairing guy with Hamonic.

 

I think you can make an argument that Forbort should be in the lineup over Hamonic.

 

[travel_dude]

4 hours ago, JTech780 said:

 

It's not just Andersson, IMO Hanifin is a different player when paired with Andersson compared to when he is paired with Hamonic. Hanifin looks like a legit top 4 defenseman paired with Andersson and looks like a bottom pairing guy with Hamonic.

 

I think you can make an argument that Forbort should be in the lineup over Hamonic.

 

 

For me it's a tossup of Hamonic or Forbort, but Forbort is a LD.

Gustafsson plays either side.

But the point is valid; if you sit Hamonic, then Gustafsson slide over to RD and Forbort plays LD.

 

I think Brodie plays his best with Gio, but I might try him with Gustafsson; they can fight over who plays RD.

If you did that, then Ras plays with Gio.

Hanifin-Hamonic would be your default 3rd pair.

[Thebrewcrew]

With the cap likely making a decent jump, is Mangiapane worthy of a long term deal like we saw with Andersson? I'd certainly do it if there's an appetite from the Mang camp, 4.25-4.5x6 or 7. Bit of an overpayment at the moment, but down the road it's a bargain. Gives Mang some security as well as big money, for a guy who made 705k last year and 715k this year

[robrob74]

8 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

With the cap likely making a decent jump, is Mangiapane worthy of a long term deal like we saw with Andersson? I'd certainly do it if there's an appetite from the Mang camp, 4.25-4.5x6 or 7. Bit of an overpayment at the moment, but down the road it's a bargain. Gives Mang some security as well as big money, for a guy who made 705k last year and 715k this year

 

I would go 3.75-4.25 x 5. 
 

I think I’d be a cheapo GM.

[Thebrewcrew]

3 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

I would go 3.75-4.25 x 5. 
 

I think I’d be a cheapo GM.

A cheap GM is a good GM! Look at Ken Holland’s last few years in detroit and the position he left them in lol

[travel_dude]

26 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

With the cap likely making a decent jump, is Mangiapane worthy of a long term deal like we saw with Andersson? I'd certainly do it if there's an appetite from the Mang camp, 4.25-4.5x6 or 7. Bit of an overpayment at the moment, but down the road it's a bargain. Gives Mang some security as well as big money, for a guy who made 705k last year and 715k this year

 

Wow, Bennett and Janko would be jealous.

Especially Janko, who came in and performed better than Mangiapane 

 

I get it, and I think he is earning his next deal.

I just don't know what he has earned.

2+3+3+3.5+4+4 ??

Six years seems to be the max term for BT.

[robrob74]

1 minute ago, travel_dude said:

 

Wow, Bennett and Janko would be jealous.

Especially Janko, who came in and performed better than Mangiapane 

 

I get it, and I think he is earning his next deal.

I just don't know what he has earned.

2+3+3+3.5+4+4 ??

Six years seems to be the max term for BT.

I would do that! That’s just over 3M per.

[robrob74]

Does that equate to what Bouma got? Is Mangiapane a true top6? Or is he on this team?

 

i get Bouma is different as we had nothing else and Mang has more skill.

[travel_dude]

13 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

Does that equate to what Bouma got? Is Mangiapane a true top6? Or is he on this team?

 

i get Bouma is different as we had nothing else and Mang has more skill.

One was looking down the barrel of a propped up arbitration award.

I never understood why they singed him for 2 years longer than any arbitration award he would have gotten.

Rookie GM move, or maybe it was Burkie.

 

Personally, I see Mangiapane as a less gifted player than Gaudreau, but 2x more dogged.

If Mangiapane was as good a skater and passer as Johnny, he would outscore Johnny by a bunch.

On the other hand, if Gaudreau had the same ability to battle for the puck, he would be unstoppable.

 

Maybe I am a bit biased, but I think we have a top 6 player, even now.

The last 10 or so games last year and this year have been a 40 point per season player. 

40 points doesn't sound like much, but p/60 I would say he is much more efficient than a lot of others.

 

 

[Horsman1]

12 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

One was looking down the barrel of a propped up arbitration award.

I never understood why they singed him for 2 years longer than any arbitration award he would have gotten.

Rookie GM move, or maybe it was Burkie.

 

Personally, I see Mangiapane as a less gifted player than Gaudreau, but 2x more dogged.

If Mangiapane was as good a skater and passer as Johnny, he would outscore Johnny by a bunch.

On the other hand, if Gaudreau had the same ability to battle for the puck, he would be unstoppable.

 

Maybe I am a bit biased, but I think we have a top 6 player, even now.

The last 10 or so games last year and this year have been a 40 point per season player. 

40 points doesn't sound like much, but p/60 I would say he is much more efficient than a lot of others.

 

 

unfortunately .. also a left winger..

[travel_dude]

30 minutes ago, Horsman1 said:

unfortunately .. also a left winger..

 

Maybe, but you would never know from his ability to score or make plays.

If they set him up on the RW for one-timers, the puck would be on net every time.

I exagerate, but the point is he's a good choice for RW.

I may be wrong, but most of his goals are scored from the right side.

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

One was looking down the barrel of a propped up arbitration award.

I never understood why they singed him for 2 years longer than any arbitration award he would have gotten.

Rookie GM move, or maybe it was Burkie.

 

Personally, I see Mangiapane as a less gifted player than Gaudreau, but 2x more dogged.

If Mangiapane was as good a skater and passer as Johnny, he would outscore Johnny by a bunch.

On the other hand, if Gaudreau had the same ability to battle for the puck, he would be unstoppable.

 

Maybe I am a bit biased, but I think we have a top 6 player, even now.

The last 10 or so games last year and this year have been a 40 point per season player. 

40 points doesn't sound like much, but p/60 I would say he is much more efficient than a lot of others.

 

 

 

I could see that. I like his story. I like the effort. I just don’t know why he rubbed/rubs me the wrong way. Maybe I wonder what happens if he does get complacent? What does he bring if he doesn’t bring the energy he does? Maybe this is who he is and will always play this way. 
 

As for Johnny. His first half last year was as dominant as it comes on both sides of the rink. Something changed after the ASB. But the way he played both ends of the ice made him a 99pt player. Is he willing to be that player? For most of this season the answer was no. But then who knows what demons he lived with this year? 
 

My dad was in the hospital dying since thanksgiving and just past 4 weeks ago and I can say I was doing what it took to get by and wasn’t fully there. Kinda looks like that happened with Johnny. If it was his grandpa then there’s still the worry That’s there. But I don’t know... it’s speculation but we don’t know what is up with these athletes. 
 

with Gary Leeman we got a player who was a shell of a person whose (if I remember correctly) wife cheated on him with Al Iafrate. How do you get by when you’re defeated? Everyone reacts differently. 
 

maybe this year is the anomaly with him and you’re right, all we need is a C who can skate with him and make more room. 
 

like maybe Lindholm would work if they had a good RW to play there.

[pikey7883]

6 hours ago, robrob74 said:

 

I could see that. I like his story. I like the effort. I just don’t know why he rubbed/rubs me the wrong way. Maybe I wonder what happens if he does get complacent? What does he bring if he doesn’t bring the energy he does? Maybe this is who he is and will always play this way. 
 

As for Johnny. His first half last year was as dominant as it comes on both sides of the rink. Something changed after the ASB. But the way he played both ends of the ice made him a 99pt player. Is he willing to be that player? For most of this season the answer was no. But then who knows what demons he lived with this year? 
 

My dad was in the hospital dying since thanksgiving and just past 4 weeks ago and I can say I was doing what it took to get by and wasn’t fully there. Kinda looks like that happened with Johnny. If it was his grandpa then there’s still the worry That’s there. But I don’t know... it’s speculation but we don’t know what is up with these athletes. 
 

with Gary Leeman we got a player who was a shell of a person whose (if I remember correctly) wife cheated on him with Al Iafrate. How do you get by when you’re defeated? Everyone reacts differently. 
 

maybe this year is the anomaly with him and you’re right, all we need is a C who can skate with him and make more room. 
 

like maybe Lindholm would work if they had a good RW to play there.

 

I suggested trying a line of Gaudreau - Bennett - Mangiapane but in a more of a protected situation without favourable zone starts. I think it could work

[cross16]

Mangiapane is a really tricky negotiation. At 5 on 5 his production rates are among the best in the team and his underlying numbers are tops too. however, he doesn't get much in the way of PP so his overall numbers don't jump off the page. So I can see a stalemate developing because he and his reps are going to argue he's a top 6 forward (which based on 5 on 5 he is) but the Flames are going to counter by pointing to his raw numbers. 

 

For me Mangiapane is a guy you bridge, not someone you go term on. The only way i would go past 3 years if he would have to agree to a number below 4mill AAV and I can't imagine he is going to do that. Zack Kassian just got over 3 million and I would say Mangiapange is a few steps above him as a player who i thikn if you are going term you need to start with a 4 and I wouldn't go there. 

 

2 years somewhere in the 2.5-3.25 range. Keeps him an RFA at the end and you can negotiate a long term deal at that point if he keeps growing. If you can get him to look at 4 years for 3.5-3.75 I would do that too. I thikn longer than 4 years though the numbers is going to be closer to 4.5-5mill AAV. 

 

I also think there is no comparison here to Bouma. Bouma was a player who was not drafted as scorer, wasn't a scorer until he got with Backlkund and saw a massive jump in his production and also a jump in his underlying numbers. Mangiapange produced in junior, produced in the AHL, had good underlying numbers in short stints last year, and then this year has parlayed that into success when given opportunities. The 2 are very different. 

[flames-fan-in-jets-land]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

Mangiapane is a really tricky negotiation. At 5 on 5 his production rates are among the best in the team and his underlying numbers are tops too. however, he doesn't get much in the way of PP so his overall numbers don't jump off the page. So I can see a stalemate developing because he and his reps are going to argue he's a top 6 forward (which based on 5 on 5 he is) but the Flames are going to counter by pointing to his raw numbers. 

 

For me Mangiapane is a guy you bridge, not someone you go term on. The only way i would go past 3 years if he would have to agree to a number below 4mill AAV and I can't imagine he is going to do that. Zack Kassian just got over 3 million and I would say Mangiapange is a few steps above him as a player who i thikn if you are going term you need to start with a 4 and I wouldn't go there. 

 

2 years somewhere in the 2.5-3.25 range. Keeps him an RFA at the end and you can negotiate a long term deal at that point if he keeps growing. If you can get him to look at 4 years for 3.5-3.75 I would do that too. I thikn longer than 4 years though the numbers is going to be closer to 4.5-5mill AAV. 

 

I also think there is no comparison here to Bouma. Bouma was a player who was not drafted as scorer, wasn't a scorer until he got with Backlkund and saw a massive jump in his production and also a jump in his underlying numbers. Mangiapange produced in junior, produced in the AHL, had good underlying numbers in short stints last year, and then this year has parlayed that into success when given opportunities. The 2 are very different. 

I'm thinking this would be the best way to go. 4 years brings him to 28 years old which will close to his prime if not a little after. The bigger concern with a longer term is the fact that even with his smaller stature he's not scared to go into the dirty areas of the ice, this most likely raises his chances of injury and/or premature wear down. His #s now may show top 6 but all it takes is the right trade or 2 and he could be dropped down to the 3rd line. I'm all for re-signing him but not too long of a term.

[cross16]

Wasn't sure where to put this.

 

3 players look set to be Group 6 UFAs this year. Jon Gillies, Ryan Lomberg, and Rinat Valiev. I would have been surprised to see any back to begin with, but this likely seals it. 

 

 

[travel_dude]

3 hours ago, cross16 said:

For me Mangiapane is a guy you bridge, not someone you go term on. The only way i would go past 3 years if he would have to agree to a number below 4mill AAV and I can't imagine he is going to do that. Zack Kassian just got over 3 million and I would say Mangiapange is a few steps above him as a player who i thikn if you are going term you need to start with a 4 and I wouldn't go there. 

 

2 years somewhere in the 2.5-3.25 range. Keeps him an RFA at the end and you can negotiate a long term deal at that point if he keeps growing. If you can get him to look at 4 years for 3.5-3.75 I would do that too. I thikn longer than 4 years though the numbers is going to be closer to 4.5-5mill AAV. 

 

As far as negotiations, I think there is some merit in what Ras just signed for.

6 x 4.55m.

Mangiapane has not shown enough to suggest he is more valuable than a minute eating D-man that can QB a PP.

So, if you were going 6 years on Mangiapane, 3.25 to 3.75 is a reasonable offer.

Maybe his camp would think bigger AAV or shorter term, but there isn't a lot of history to warrant that.

 

As far as value to the Flames, in 3 years, $3.75m is not big money.

A bridge deal is fine, but two years from now Gio, Gaudreau and Tkachuk's deals all expire.

That's not a good idea to have Mangiapane also expiring.

Sure, Gaudreau may be gone by then, but the last thing I want is we have the same core and Mangiapane's comps costs $6m.

The cap increases will make that the same as a $4m player today.  There are a lot of those out there.

[flames-fan-in-jets-land]

32 minutes ago, cross16 said:

Wasn't sure where to put this.

 

3 players look set to be Group 6 UFAs this year. Jon Gillies, Ryan Lomberg, and Rinat Valiev. I would have been surprised to see any back to begin with, but this likely seals it. 

 

 

Theres a couple Flame cast offs in the east too. Sieloff and Klimchuk.

[cross16]

38 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

As far as negotiations, I think there is some merit in what Ras just signed for.

6 x 4.55m.

Mangiapane has not shown enough to suggest he is more valuable than a minute eating D-man that can QB a PP.

So, if you were going 6 years on Mangiapane, 3.25 to 3.75 is a reasonable offer.

Maybe his camp would think bigger AAV or shorter term, but there isn't a lot of history to warrant that.

 

As far as value to the Flames, in 3 years, $3.75m is not big money.

A bridge deal is fine, but two years from now Gio, Gaudreau and Tkachuk's deals all expire.

That's not a good idea to have Mangiapane also expiring.

Sure, Gaudreau may be gone by then, but the last thing I want is we have the same core and Mangiapane's comps costs $6m.

The cap increases will make that the same as a $4m player today.  There are a lot of those out there.

 

I highly, highly doubt he and his camp will agree with you. 

 

Andreas Johnsson is a very similar player to Mangiapane. Draft position, AHL numbers, NHL numbers etc and he signed for 4 years at 3.5 million. JT Compher, who Mangiapane is going to out score at 5 on 5, got 4 years at 3.5Mill AAV. 

Alex Tuch has the draft position, and was very good in the playoffs, but Mangiapange has better 5 on 5 numbers at this stage of his career. Tuch got 7 years at 4.7mill AAV. 

 

I don't see how Mangiapane agrees to go long term at less than 4 mill. 

[Sarasti]

https://www.matchsticksandgasoline.com/2020/3/5/21165191/heating-up-the-rise-of-hanirazz

 

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet, but I found it an interesting read.

 

Definitely have decisions to make as far as pairings go when we get Hamonic back in the lineup.