ABC923 Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 So the leafs just signed Mathews extension, 5 years @ 11.63 million per (makes Gaudreaus contract look like a steal). I knew it would be north of 10 million, but with money like that it should be a 7 year contract at least. He'll be a UFA at the end of it, only 26 years old. Anyway, the leafs are currently at 66.6 million committed for next season. If we project the cap to be 83 million, that leaves them 16.4 million to sign the rest. Keep in mind, they still need to extend Marner (should be at least 9 million) and Kapanen (maybe 4 million?). We're also assuming they don't go hog wild at the deadline and add a bunch of salary, because Matthews is likely to earn his 2.8 million in performance bonuses this season, which would count against next years cap if they fail to leave sufficient space on this season's cap. That would leave They still need to sign 2 defenders, 3 forwards, and a back up goalie for next season, and about 3.4 million to accomplish that. Unfortunately, the minimum salary is now $650,000, which is 3.9 million if they sign all remaining players to minimum value contracts. This also leaves them carrying only 1 extra defender and no extra forwards. Not many options for the leafs. They either have to pray the salary cap is at least 85 million, or they have to trade someone like Kapanen for draft picks or lower cost players, or they have to move out salary. The good news is after next season, Marleau and his 6.25 million are gone, so if they can weather next year they will be in the clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABC923 Posted February 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 I should also mention, Jake Gardiner is up this season too. They can't resign him, so that will weaken an already not too strong blue line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
conundrumed Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Leafs fans I talk to do not want Gardiner back, particularly with any kind of raise. That's not to say the org doesn't like him, but the fans generally despise his play in his own end. Oh, and you said Marner's extension, I know you meant Matthews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travel_dude Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 The actual cap projection for next season is $71.9m, which includes the Kessel deal and Horton's LTIR money. Just for sake of expected LTIR, subtract $5.3m. Doesn't include Gardiner, which many expect them to move on from... Lindholm, Kapanen and Johnsson..... $1.5m bridge, $4.5m and $2.5m Marner $9.5m. With only 5D and 1G signed, that pushes them to $84.6m. Big trade has to happen. Marleau is on the books for one more year at $6.25m, 35+ contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cross16 Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Deal was a little surprising as I thought for a 5 year deal they'd get a better break on the AAV or if that was the AAV they'd get an extra year so a bit surprised they didn't grind this out more but I have heard Dubas go on the record as they wanted this done before the TDL to gauge what they can do. Cost of doing business is to lock up your Stars. I'm not with people who say the Leafs blueline is not good. It's not a top end blueline but it's decent and gets better with the addition of Muzzin (who also essentially replaced Gardiner for next year). They've also got some talent coming with some very good young dmen so it's clearly the area where they are going to spend less money. Having a number 1 goalie helps here too. Probably going to have to move either Marleau or Zaitsev to make it work but I do think both plans are doable. They also have some good young forwards the can move for dmen so I think the reaction to the deal and the whole "Leafs are screwed" narrative isn't fair. They'e got options and a very good team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABC923 Posted February 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 1 hour ago, conundrumed said: Leafs fans I talk to do not want Gardiner back, particularly with any kind of raise. That's not to say the org doesn't like him, but the fans generally despise his play in his own end. Oh, and you said Marner's extension, I know you meant Matthews. Right you are, corrected now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
travel_dude Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 32 minutes ago, cross16 said: Probably going to have to move either Marleau or Zaitsev to make it work but I do think both plans are doable. They also have some good young forwards the can move for dmen so I think the reaction to the deal and the whole "Leafs are screwed" narrative isn't fair. They'e got options and a very good team. They have enough depth to survive trading away a guy like Nylander. Marleau is more of a recapture penalty threat more than a trade option, IMHO. I don't think Zaitsev changes the cap picture. Not that they are screwed, just that they have longer term "issues" than a lot of teams. They can easily go for it this season and see where they end up. Gardiner was the whipping boy last playoffs, but he's not the real problem. They rely on Andersen too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robrob74 Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Yeah, my bet is they trade Nylander this offseason. do you take Nylander at 7.9 or Kapanen at 4.5? i feel like Nylander would be a 50 point guy without playing with Matthews or Marner. He doesn’t bring enough of the other intangibles for me to warrant keeping him. I think he’s worth closer to the Neal contract personally. But that’s what happens when players like Nylander and Draisaitl play with “generational” talent, their stats get inflated & you gotta pay them more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABC923 Posted February 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 12 minutes ago, robrob74 said: Yeah, my bet is they trade Nylander this offseason. do you take Nylander at 7.9 or Kapanen at 4.5? i feel like Nylander would be a 50 point guy without playing with Matthews or Marner. He doesn’t bring enough of the other intangibles for me to warrant keeping him. I think he’s worth closer to the Neal contract personally. But that’s what happens when players like Nylander and Draisaitl play with “generational” talent, their stats get inflated & you gotta pay them more. While I'm sure missing the first quarter of the season is at the root of Nylander's struggles this season, there's no doubt his value is lower now than it was last off season. In 24 games, he has 2 goals and 7 assists. That puts him on a 7 goal, 31 point pace for an 82 game season. To put that into perspective, Bennett is on pace for 15 goals and 32 points for the season, but Bennett isn't about to sign a 7.9 million per year contract. That said, Willie is definitely capable of more, but his value in a trade will never be as high as it was prior to last summer. Likely could have gotten a top tier young defensman (that would have helped the team more), and maybe even a draft pick to boot. I'm sure they could still get a nice player for him, but it won't be the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robrob74 Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 hours ago, ABC923 said: While I'm sure missing the first quarter of the season is at the root of Nylander's struggles this season, there's no doubt his value is lower now than it was last off season. In 24 games, he has 2 goals and 7 assists. That puts him on a 7 goal, 31 point pace for an 82 game season. To put that into perspective, Bennett is on pace for 15 goals and 32 points for the season, but Bennett isn't about to sign a 7.9 million per year contract. That said, Willie is definitely capable of more, but his value in a trade will never be as high as it was prior to last summer. Likely could have gotten a top tier young defensman (that would have helped the team more), and maybe even a draft pick to boot. I'm sure they could still get a nice player for him, but it won't be the same. Gaudreau started off slow too, so I expect that Nylander to start scoring at a better pace. Maybe 40 points this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_People1 Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 I think Marner comes in at $9-million for about 6 years. I'm with those who think the Leafs will be fine. The middle tier guys like Kadri can be moved if need be and there will be teams very interested in Kadri. The Leafs will get something good back in return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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