Calgary Flames Offense

[travel_dude]

11 hours ago, 7wit said:

Calgary’s offense will be a little better than last year. I don’t believe Hanifin will replace Hamilton’s numbers last year. Lindholm may equal Ferland’s numbers and Neal should make Calgary more potent than Brouwer/Versteeg et al. I’m excited to see what this line up will yield. I still feel we are lacking in goal scoring compared to cup contenders, however, it should be enough to challenge for a playoff spot. Add another first line scoring winger (if we had one Monahan could score 40) and another prolific scoring d man and then we can compete for a top seed in the regular season. This line up should be able to score more than 250 goals for the year. 280 would be a high point unless someone has a breakout year.

 

Out

Stajan, Versteeg, Brouwer, Jagr, Bart, Dougie, Ferland, Glass

 

In

Neal, Hanifin, Lindholm, Ryan, Czarnik, Andersson, Mangiapane (?)

 

In other words, we replaced Ferland with Neal, Brouwer with Lindholm, Stajan with Ryan and Bart with Andersson.

A loss of goals with Dougie being replaced by Hanifin.

Neal replaces Brouwer on the PP.

Lindholm replaces Stajan on the PK.

Depending on how the lines are set, we should see scoring from more than just the top line.

When your top line is in on over 40% of the scoring, that's a warning sign.  Shut them down and that is all.

You saw it last year.  Top line shut down and we lose 2-1 or 3-0 or whatever.  Need some balance.

 

We brought in three forwards and a possible 4th.  Basically one for each line.  The offence is fine.  Defense should be better at keeping the puck out.  

 

[7wit]

4 hours ago, cccsberg said:

This season will be interesting and exciting.  Haven't we already added 2 first line scoring wingers and have added 1 and potentially 3 scoring D?

 

We added 2 second line scoring wingers IMHO. The D is  minus Hamilton and an add of Hanifin. Not sure if it improves scoring on the back end this year. What I like is the potential for the future so I hope someone has a breakout year.

[7wit]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

Out

Stajan, Versteeg, Brouwer, Jagr, Bart, Dougie, Ferland, Glass

 

In

Neal, Hanifin, Lindholm, Ryan, Czarnik, Andersson, Mangiapane (?)

 

In other words, we replaced Ferland with Neal, Brouwer with Lindholm, Stajan with Ryan and Bart with Andersson.

A loss of goals with Dougie being replaced by Hanifin.

Neal replaces Brouwer on the PP.

Lindholm replaces Stajan on the PK.

Depending on how the lines are set, we should see scoring from more than just the top line.

When your top line is in on over 40% of the scoring, that's a warning sign.  Shut them down and that is all.

You saw it last year.  Top line shut down and we lose 2-1 or 3-0 or whatever.  Need some balance.

 

We brought in three forwards and a possible 4th.  Basically one for each line.  The offence is fine.  Defense should be better at keeping the puck out.  

 

 

It is better no doubt about it, and I’m sure we’ll enjoy watching this year as it will be better than last year. A potential playoff team, yes. A cup contender, not yet.

[travel_dude]

45 minutes ago, 7wit said:

 

We added 2 second line scoring wingers IMHO. The D is  minus Hamilton and an add of Hanifin. Not sure if it improves scoring on the back end this year. What I like is the potential for the future so I hope someone has a breakout year.

 

The difference between Dougie and Hanifin is 7 goals, in Dougie's best season and Hanifin playing less minutes.

 

43 minutes ago, 7wit said:

 

It is better no doubt about it, and I’m sure we’ll enjoy watching this year as it will be better than last year. A potential playoff team, yes. A cup contender, not yet.

 

No playoffs would be 100% failure.

Depending on the seeding, we could have a multi-round team.

Vegas was not a cup contender team last year.  Yet that's what they became.

 

[7wit]

8 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

The difference between Dougie and Hanifin is 7 goals, in Dougie's best season and Hanifin playing less minutes.

 

 

No playoffs would be 100% failure.

Depending on the seeding, we could have a multi-round team.

Vegas was not a cup contender team last year.  Yet that's what they became.

 

 

Failure for BT for sure and I hope you’re right about the multi round team. 7 goals is a lot for a D man to make up and I’m not sure Andersson replaces Stone yet according to management. We’ll have to wait and see. Vegas may also be an anomaly which may not be repeated. I’m not trying to deflate the hope, just trying to be realistic. Let’s not forget that Carolina was trying to increase scoring when we acquired their players. We are a better team.

[robrob74]

Goals

25 Gaudreau 80pts

35+ Monahan 75pts

25 Neal 55pts

25+ Tkachuk 60pts

20- Backlund 55pts

20+ Lindholm 55pts

15 Bennett 35pts

15+ Jankowski 35pts

15 Ryan 40pts

10 Frolik 40pts

10 Czarnik 25pts

10 Randoms

 

15 Giordano 40pts

5 Brodie 35pts

10 Hanifin 35pts

5 Hamonic 20pts

5 all from other D

 

265 Approximate Total Goals

 

265 goals would have put us 7th in goals for last year. We scored 216 last year and had 243 goals scored against us. If we stay the same in GAgainst, we still score roughly 10-20 goals more than we let in. It is bad when Vancouver scored more goals than we did. 

 

My hope is that we can break the 245 goal plateau. Teams that scored as much as they let in were on the playoff cusp. 

 

i am hoping that a few take steps forward because they’re playing with better players. Some are getting healthy so they get a boost or they may stay the same. 

 

Injuries happen so I see us closer to 240 than 265. That’s a boost of 24 goals for and is more likely.

 

 

[DirtyDeeds]

1 hour ago, robrob74 said:

Goals

25 Gaudreau 80pts

35+ Monahan 75pts

25 Neal 55pts

25+ Tkachuk 60pts

20- Backlund 55pts

20+ Lindholm 55pts

15 Bennett 35pts

15+ Jankowski 35pts

15 Ryan 40pts

10 Frolik 40pts

10 Czarnik 25pts

10 Randoms

 

15 Giordano 40pts

5 Brodie 35pts

10 Hanifin 35pts

5 Hamonic 20pts

5 all from other D

 

265 Approximate Total Goals

 

265 goals would have put us 7th in goals for last year. We scored 216 last year and had 243 goals scored against us. If we stay the same in GAgainst, we still score roughly 10-20 goals more than we let in. It is bad when Vancouver scored more goals than we did. 

 

My hope is that we can break the 245 goal plateau. Teams that scored as much as they let in were on the playoff cusp. 

 

i am hoping that a few take steps forward because they’re playing with better players. Some are getting healthy so they get a boost or they may stay the same. 

 

Injuries happen so I see us closer to 240 than 265. That’s a boost of 24 goals for and is more likely.

 

 

To ensure we make playoffs we need approx +20 to +25 team goal diff or better.

[conundrumed]

3 hours ago, DirtyDeeds said:

To ensure we make playoffs we need approx +20 to +25 team goal diff or better.

I'd say that's pretty spot on. There are always a few shady goal diff teams that make it, but not a good place to be.

 

My biggest concern remains the mental aspect. A few short years ago we were the comeback kids where no lead was safe against us entering the 3rd. We seem so far removed from that now.

My favourite add is Neal. He's the "don't get down, get even" type that I think needs to be instilled in our players. If one player makes a horrible gaffe, it's team effort to make up for it. If one guy gets goat horns, everybody gets goat horns. And put the fireman's hat away. The only time to celebrate wins is closing a playoff series.

3 star selections already exist. Team effort.

My hope is character and resiliency as a group. Don't whine about reffing, don't deflate, go sideways etc etc. The adversity game throws everything out of whack.

Hopefully we end the goal happiness before the next shift too. Nothing more deflating than the opponent coming right back and popping one.

We're better on paper now than we've been in a very long time. Hopefully it translates on the ice.

[ABC923]

Something to keep in mind is that last year we had one of the worst shooting percentages in the league.  If we can even shoot average, we will see a huge boost in goals scored.

[cccsberg]

18 hours ago, 7wit said:

 

We added 2 second line scoring wingers IMHO. The D is  minus Hamilton and an add of Hanifin. Not sure if it improves scoring on the back end this year. What I like is the potential for the future so I hope someone has a breakout year.

If you consider the "average" of NHL teams, I'm thinking my version is closer than yours, but its not worth arguing over.  I agree with hoping for breakouts.  A good half dozen of those and the team will be amazing....

[MAC331]

21 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

Out

Stajan, Versteeg, Brouwer, Jagr, Bart, Dougie, Ferland, Glass

 

In

Neal, Hanifin, Lindholm, Ryan, Czarnik, Andersson, Mangiapane (?)

 

In other words, we replaced Ferland with Neal, Brouwer with Lindholm, Stajan with Ryan and Bart with Andersson.

A loss of goals with Dougie being replaced by Hanifin.

Neal replaces Brouwer on the PP.

Lindholm replaces Stajan on the PK.

Depending on how the lines are set, we should see scoring from more than just the top line.

When your top line is in on over 40% of the scoring, that's a warning sign.  Shut them down and that is all.

You saw it last year.  Top line shut down and we lose 2-1 or 3-0 or whatever.  Need some balance.

 

We brought in three forwards and a possible 4th.  Basically one for each line.  The offence is fine.  Defense should be better at keeping the puck out.  

 

 

Brouwer with Czarnick would be more accurate. Also I would be waiting to see if Andersson and Mangiapane even make the team.

I would say the expectation to replace Hamilton's numbers and then some should come from Brodie, Hamonic and Hanifin

I don't think there should be any doubt the scoring will be more spread around this coming season.

[MAC331]

8 hours ago, robrob74 said:

Goals

25 Gaudreau 80pts

35+ Monahan 75pts

25 Neal 55pts

25+ Tkachuk 60pts

20- Backlund 55pts

20+ Lindholm 55pts

15 Bennett 35pts

15+ Jankowski 35pts

15 Ryan 40pts

10 Frolik 40pts

10 Czarnik 25pts

10 Randoms

 

15 Giordano 40pts

5 Brodie 35pts

10 Hanifin 35pts

5 Hamonic 20pts

5 all from other D

 

265 Approximate Total Goals

 

265 goals would have put us 7th in goals for last year. We scored 216 last year and had 243 goals scored against us. If we stay the same in GAgainst, we still score roughly 10-20 goals more than we let in. It is bad when Vancouver scored more goals than we did. 

 

My hope is that we can break the 245 goal plateau. Teams that scored as much as they let in were on the playoff cusp. 

 

i am hoping that a few take steps forward because they’re playing with better players. Some are getting healthy so they get a boost or they may stay the same. 

 

Injuries happen so I see us closer to 240 than 265. That’s a boost of 24 goals for and is more likely.

 

 

I am going to throw one caution out there and that is we shouldn't keep expecting Giordano to increase his numbers or even maintain them. We need to see a vast improvement from all the other defensemen on this team.

[The_Tribal Chief]

i Agree if we can hit the net when we shoot that will improve our channces alot

[robrob74]

9 hours ago, DirtyDeeds said:

To ensure we make playoffs we need approx +20 to +25 team goal diff or better.

 

Exactly. I can’t see us realistically scoring over 260 goals, more if everyone hits their marks it could happen. I can’t see a huge jump from some of the players, especially if they’re slotted deeper on the roster and not getting PP time. 

 

I think if The team can keep the puck out of the net more frequently this year there’s that chance. 

 

In reality I see the Flames scoring 10 goals more than the let in this year. Even that is an improvement I guess.

[robrob74]

2 hours ago, MAC331 said:

I am going to throw one caution out there and that is we shouldn't keep expecting Giordano to increase his numbers or even maintain them. We need to see a vast improvement from all the other defensemen on this team.

 

I don’t see Giordano dropping off so far. I think 5-10 points less than what I had there (40point) could be fair. 

I don’t see that this year. With Brodie he plays a different style, plus the coach may give the D more leeway to pinch. From what I heard from Hanifin, he was given the go ahead to play his game. Part of possession is also keeping the play alive in the other team’s end.

[MAC331]

1 hour ago, robrob74 said:

 

I don’t see Giordano dropping off so far. I think 5-10 points less than what I had there (40point) could be fair. 

I don’t see that this year. With Brodie he plays a different style, plus the coach may give the D more leeway to pinch. From what I heard from Hanifin, he was given the go ahead to play his game. Part of possession is also keeping the play alive in the other team’s end.

I hope not either however there were times this past season he was noticeably slower. Hopefully Brodie does carry more of the load.

[cross16]

Giordano has been very consistent the last four years on his 5 on 5 production. The swing and the decrease is due more to his PP numbers and it's tough to blame him or aging on that one. 

 

With Hanifin in the fold I agree a bounce back in his PP numbers may not happen but I also think expecting a decline isn't fair to him either. He's remarkably consistent a dman. 

[DirtyDeeds]

34 minutes ago, cross16 said:

Giordano has been very consistent the last four years on his 5 on 5 production. The swing and the decrease is due more to his PP numbers and it's tough to blame him or aging on that one. 

 

With Hanifin in the fold I agree a bounce back in his PP numbers may not happen but I also think expecting a decline isn't fair to him either. He's remarkably consistent a dman. 

and consistently in top shape

[MAC331]

41 minutes ago, cross16 said:

Giordano has been very consistent the last four years on his 5 on 5 production. The swing and the decrease is due more to his PP numbers and it's tough to blame him or aging on that one. 

 

With Hanifin in the fold I agree a bounce back in his PP numbers may not happen but I also think expecting a decline isn't fair to him either. He's remarkably consistent a dman. 

If this is directed at me I agree with expecting his production to be consistent, just saying he looked slower at times.

[travel_dude]

5 hours ago, MAC331 said:

Brouwer with Czarnick would be more accurate. Also I would be waiting to see if Andersson and Mangiapane even make the team.

I would say the expectation to replace Hamilton's numbers and then some should come from Brodie, Hamonic and Hanifin

I don't think there should be any doubt the scoring will be more spread around this coming season.

 

Considering how many minutes Brouwer played, it's a reasonable expectation that Neal replaces those minutes.

[MAC331]

9 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Considering how many minutes Brouwer played, it's a reasonable expectation that Neal replaces those minutes.

Sure

[robrob74]

56 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Considering how many minutes Brouwer played, it's a reasonable expectation that Neal replaces those minutes.

 

I would say it’ll be Neal and Lindholm. 

 

I can’t really see Bennett taking a step if he doesn’t get a decent shot (someone to play with consistently). Nor do I see Jankowski taking a big step either. It’s more about looking at the ice time they need to spread around and there just isn’t enough ice to accommodate the (high) expectations of some. 

 

But I can see modest improvements and a few extra goals for them. 

 

What is is a good goal total for 3rd or 4th liners? Is it a stretch to score 20+? Without PP time I just can’t see it.

 

i agree that the D points that Hamilton took with him will be made up by committee. I think there is enough talent to score some goals. For some reason we were among the league’s worst shooting percentages. 

 

We will score more if the shooting % starts to move closer to league average.

[travel_dude]

2 hours ago, robrob74 said:

I would say it’ll be Neal and Lindholm. 

 

 

Last year, the following was the totals for various players on the PP, with JH as a baseline:

PLAYER	PP TOI	GOALS	POINTS	POINTS/60
GAUDREAU	283:13	3	24	5.08
MONAHAN	268:29	9	19	4.25
GIORDANO	257:07	1	10	2.33
HAMILTON	218:15	6	12	3.30
TKACHUK	202:36	10	17	5.03
BRODIE	184:07	1	11	3.57
BACKLUND	175:25	3	11	3.74
FERLAND	142:42	6	6	2.52
BENNETT	111:05	1	3	1.61
BROUWER	93:52	0	5	3.18

 

 

Neal would get at all of Brouwer's and likely Ferland's minutes.  About 236 minutes

Lindholm will Bennett's most likely, and might pick up other minutes from players not listed here.

The D's minutes will likely be split between Gio, Hanifin, Brodie and maybe Andersson, depending on fit.

Whomever plays on the top unit needs to be able to cover the point and get a shot through.  And they need to be able to skate back.

I could see Czarnik getting some time on the 2nd unit, with Backlund and Lindholm.  

If they go with 4F, then you may see Bennett there, but there are other options.  His PP production was one of the worst on the team.  

[robrob74]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

Last year, the following was the totals for various players on the PP, with JH as a baseline:

PLAYER	PP TOI	GOALS	POINTS	POINTS/60
GAUDREAU	283:13	3	24	5.08
MONAHAN	268:29	9	19	4.25
GIORDANO	257:07	1	10	2.33
HAMILTON	218:15	6	12	3.30
TKACHUK	202:36	10	17	5.03
BRODIE	184:07	1	11	3.57
BACKLUND	175:25	3	11	3.74
FERLAND	142:42	6	6	2.52
BENNETT	111:05	1	3	1.61
BROUWER	93:52	0	5	3.18

 

 

Neal would get at all of Brouwer's and likely Ferland's minutes.  About 236 minutes

Lindholm will Bennett's most likely, and might pick up other minutes from players not listed here.

The D's minutes will likely be split between Gio, Hanifin, Brodie and maybe Andersson, depending on fit.

Whomever plays on the top unit needs to be able to cover the point and get a shot through.  And they need to be able to skate back.

I could see Czarnik getting some time on the 2nd unit, with Backlund and Lindholm.  

If they go with 4F, then you may see Bennett there, but there are other options.  His PP production was one of the worst on the team.  

 

Yup, 

 

hopefully a few can take those spots and thrive.

 

having different coaches, the PP should be better, and has to be. I don’t know what league average PP% is for a team, but I assume that if we can get to that then there lies most of those extra goals we need to get into the playoffs.

 

making the PP a priority is necessary this season. It is where momentum is gained or lost. Hence, opposite if that is having a great PK as well.

[cross16]

writer for the Athletic with his point projects. Most reasonable ones i've seen so far. totals 256 which last year would have been good for 11th in the league which I think is where I would rank this team on paper.

 

if you subscribe to the goal differential theory then this projection would mean the Flames would have to cut 12-17 goals off their goals against from last in order to fall into the +20-25 Range some have mentioned. Think there is a very high likelihood that happens.