So Where do we go from here? Analysis & Predictions

[rickross]

7 hours ago, MAC331 said:

I'm not sure what you mean by your first statement. Yes we spent our latest draft picks on forwards such as Monahan, Bennett and Tkachuk all of which have a significant future for us. If you mean the use of picks to land Hamilton and Hamonic I see them as significant as the 3 mentioned. I think BT has things going in the right direction and the "all in" is fine but I look for the team to be progressively better. I don't think there should be any panic regarding the RW with JG and SM, Ferland is best to start there and adjust if necessary throughout the season. Thinking you have the right "paper roster" at the start means nothing really. I see this as another season of adjustment and more players getting use to each other again. Where it all takes us is why we play the games.

I'm speaking more to our draft class of 2013, Shink, Poirier and Klimchuk...we still don't know what we have in each player. It's a contract year for them so it'd be nice to see someone seperate themselves from the pack. In a few years we'll need to graduate some of those players to the NHL, if Bennett/Lazar don't pan out you'd want to have an idea of who the next man up may be for future planning. Regarding RW it's an area we lack depth in, I'm fine with Ferland on the 1st line but if that doesn't pan out we don't have many legit options to use

[rickross]

7 hours ago, AlbertaBoy12 said:

regardless of how you view lineups I think we need to get over this huge hole on the top line RW. I think every team in the league has holes, ie pittsbugh defense is not the greatest around and they are solid for what you need. Edmonton is much the same at defense, anaheim has holes in their forward group, the list goes on and on. JH will be fine as I stated in another thread he put up 61 points last season and probably would have put up more if he didnt miss 10 games, I wouldnt be worried.

Sure every team has needs but we have very few capable true RWs in our organization. To me, a team lacking positional depth also lacks balance. Not to say they can't work around it but eventually something has to give. I'm not suggesting we have to go buy or acquire an RW but we atleast need to find a proper partner for JH and Monny. No knock on Ferland perhaps he excels there next year but if he gets injured with our lack of depth, he's much more difficult to replace than a C or a D man. 

[travel_dude]

4 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

On a 2 year deal that is where he should be. Doesn't buy any UFA years so at that point there is really not leverage for him to get paid more. Believe this will take him right to UFA though so certainly some risk there that if he does take off, he'll be very expensive to retain. 

Well that also opened the 2nd buyout window, from 17th to 19th of July, IIRC.

ANyone you expect to be dumped?

[cross16]

2 hours ago, travel_dude said:

Well that also opened the 2nd buyout window, from 17th to 19th of July, IIRC.

ANyone you expect to be dumped?

 

No. I think they are done with buyouts for this year. 

[rickross]

Love Ferland at $1.75M for 2 years, now on to Bennett and Lazar. I see Bennett at $2M-2.25Mx2 years, Lazar between $1M-1.25M X 1 yr. 

 

I don't see the Flames signing an FA like Jagr but I'd be copping a jersey if they did! It would put Brouwer and Ferland on the 3/4 lines..making Brouwer even more expensive. 

[MAC331]

13 hours ago, rickross said:

I'm speaking more to our draft class of 2013, Shink, Poirier and Klimchuk...we still don't know what we have in each player. It's a contract year for them so it'd be nice to see someone seperate themselves from the pack. In a few years we'll need to graduate some of those players to the NHL, if Bennett/Lazar don't pan out you'd want to have an idea of who the next man up may be for future planning. Regarding RW it's an area we lack depth in, I'm fine with Ferland on the 1st line but if that doesn't pan out we don't have many legit options to use

Ah OK. I think all 3 of these players can be instrumental depth players this season and as a few more openings occur heading into 2018/19 could work into a few spots. I understand they switched Poirier to LW this past season so our RW depth remains shallow. The Foo signing will help. I have mentioned about seeing Poirier on LW with Backlund and Frolik as I think he has some similarities to both Tkachuk and Ferland plus he skates well. I just don't know how management feels this alcohol situation has hurt him or his chances.

[phoenix66]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/calgary-flames-sign-curtis-lazar-two-year-contract/

 

950K/ yr  2 yrs ..  figured it would be in that 1M range so still on track 

 

another domino falls.. now we just need Bennett to get his done so BT can get back to adding that final piece 

[Flyerfan52]

34 minutes ago, phoenix66 said:

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/calgary-flames-sign-curtis-lazar-two-year-contract/

 

950K/ yr  2 yrs ..  figured it would be in that 1M range so still on track 

 

another domino falls.. now we just need Bennett to get his done so BT can get back to adding that final piece 

A good price & term.

Looking back @ that 2013 draft a lot of those players are still developing. If that's true for Lazar we just might have a steal.

[cross16]

Pretty straightforward deal as Lazar had really no leverage. Thought he would get his qualify offer only which he basically did just got another term on there. Not a bad strategy as he needs to step in order to keep an NHL job.

 

Team clearly being structured for a 2 year run and then a "we'll see where we stand". Not that its bad, but sure hope then there is another move coming to address RW and/or add a scorer otherwise the plan looks mighty risky. 

[CheersMan]

47 minutes ago, cross16 said:

Pretty straightforward deal as Lazar had really no leverage. Thought he would get his qualify offer only which he basically did just got another term on there. Not a bad strategy as he needs to step in order to keep an NHL job.

 

Team clearly being structured for a 2 year run and then a "we'll see where we stand". Not that its bad, but sure hope then there is another move coming to address RW and/or add a scorer otherwise the plan looks mighty risky. 

 

How do you figure?  Our core dmen and forwards are all pencilled for 3yrs or longer. 

[cross16]

4 minutes ago, CheersMan said:

 

How do you figure?  Our core dmen and forwards are all pencilled for 3yrs or longer. 

 

Smith 2 year deal, Lazar 2 year deal, Ferland 2 year deal and it's 2 years until Tkachuk is up and that looks like it will be a big payday. Not to mention there is no way you will be able to keep Hamonic, Brodie and Hamilton once they hit UFA so you are likely picking 2 of the 3 and you ideally would want to do that before they walk for free so that is in 2 years as well. 

 

Not saying it's only a 2 year window and then they are rebuilding, i'm just saying I think its clear they plan to give this current roster 2 years and then will see where they are and perhaps make changes, perhaps not. 

[MAC331]

Just now, cross16 said:

 

Smith 2 year deal, Lazar 2 year deal, Ferland 2 year deal and it's 2 years until Tkachuk is up and that looks like it will be a big payday. Not to mention there is no way you will be able to keep Hamonic, Brodie and Hamilton once they hit UFA so you are likely picking 2 of the 3 and you ideally would want to do that before they walk for free so that is in 2 years as well. 

 

Not saying it's only a 2 year window and then they are rebuilding, i'm just saying I think its clear they plan to give this current roster 2 years and then will see where they are and perhaps make changes, perhaps not. 

Change seems to be inevitable and ongoing in the NHL. Trying to build quality into your pipeline will be the only way to address the attempt to be a consistent winner. Smith is 2 years by contract and age that will require change. Ferland and Lazar are IMO let's see what we really have with these two. I expect almost the same with Bennett with maybe more money.

[travel_dude]

Just now, cross16 said:

 

Smith 2 year deal, Lazar 2 year deal, Ferland 2 year deal and it's 2 years until Tkachuk is up and that looks like it will be a big payday. Not to mention there is no way you will be able to keep Hamonic, Brodie and Hamilton once they hit UFA so you are likely picking 2 of the 3 and you ideally would want to do that before they walk for free so that is in 2 years as well. 

 

Not saying it's only a 2 year window and then they are rebuilding, i'm just saying I think its clear they plan to give this current roster 2 years and then will see where they are and perhaps make changes, perhaps not. 

 

I agree about the 2 year window for some players.  Show me deals.  

Regarding the bolded:

 

I get what you are saying, but I think they will make every effort to keep all three.  More likely Stone vs Hamonic, seeing who reaches higher heights.  Gio will be that much older and possibly a victim to a new player.  The other thing is that the roster will turnover elsewhere, so (hopefully) we will have more players on inexpensive deals.  Like in nets or some of the bottom 6 guys.  Brouwer will be gone, Frolik might get another deal.  Who knows if Backs is replaced at that point.  

 

All I am saying is that if there is interest from both sides, we could keep our top 4 intact without stripping the team elsewhere.

[CheersMan]

7 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

Smith 2 year deal, Lazar 2 year deal, Ferland 2 year deal and it's 2 years until Tkachuk is up and that looks like it will be a big payday. Not to mention there is no way you will be able to keep Hamonic, Brodie and Hamilton once they hit UFA so you are likely picking 2 of the 3 and you ideally would want to do that before they walk for free so that is in 2 years as well. 

 

Not saying it's only a 2 year window and then they are rebuilding, i'm just saying I think its clear they plan to give this current roster 2 years and then will see where they are and perhaps make changes, perhaps not. 

 

Smith is a short term gap filler making way for a young one in the pipeline.

 

Lazar, Ferland and Tkachuk are the only ones expiring after 2 years.  Core is in place for 3-6 yrs.

 

Tkachuk looks like a keeper, lets hope we find another keeper in Lazar and Ferland.

[cross16]

1 minute ago, travel_dude said:

 

I agree about the 2 year window for some players.  Show me deals.  

Regarding the bolded:

 

I get what you are saying, but I think they will make every effort to keep all three.  More likely Stone vs Hamonic, seeing who reaches higher heights.  Gio will be that much older and possibly a victim to a new player.  The other thing is that the roster will turnover elsewhere, so (hopefully) we will have more players on inexpensive deals.  Like in nets or some of the bottom 6 guys.  Brouwer will be gone, Frolik might get another deal.  Who knows if Backs is replaced at that point.  

 

All I am saying is that if there is interest from both sides, we could keep our top 4 intact without stripping the team elsewhere.

 

To each his own, but I don't think for a second the flames plan to spend 25 million or maybe more on their top 4 D with all the other commitments they will have. 

[travel_dude]

2 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

To each his own, but I don't think for a second the flames plan to spend 25 million or maybe more on their top 4 D with all the other commitments they will have. 

Unless you have players that can play the top 4, you don't have a lot of choice.  Who knows what the D will look like in 3 year, but if Brodie and Hamonic could be kept within reason, they will likely do it.  You don't walk away from one of these guys (trade or other) if you can't replace them internally.  

 

I guess I am saying that if you have one of the best defense in the league, you don't break that up.  

[cross16]

4 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

Unless you have players that can play the top 4, you don't have a lot of choice.  Who knows what the D will look like in 3 year, but if Brodie and Hamonic could be kept within reason, they will likely do it.  You don't walk away from one of these guys (trade or other) if you can't replace them internally.  

 

I guess I am saying that if you have one of the best defense in the league, you don't break that up.  

 

You never want to, but that is the reality of  a cap system. 

[travel_dude]

Just now, cross16 said:

 

You never want to, but that is the reality of  a cap system. 

 

No doubt.  I would forgo having $4.5m players that aren't a good fit or having 3 centers making a total of $19m combined.  I guess we have been spoiled by not having players worth more than Gio or Gaudreau.  Instead we have a bunch that were making more than they were worth and couldn't trade them for a bag of pucks.  Wideman, Bouma, Stajan (lesser issue), Smid, etc....

 

 

[rickross]

The more I think on it the more I'm open to the Flames signing Jagr. He's always had good possession numbers and he's a master at puck protection...he just seems like a good compliment to JH and Monny. They played well with a skilled guy like Hudler so maybe it works with Jagr. To be honest I just want that Jagr Flames jersey lol

[MAC331]

44 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

No doubt.  I would forgo having $4.5m players that aren't a good fit or having 3 centers making a total of $19m combined.  I guess we have been spoiled by not having players worth more than Gio or Gaudreau.  Instead we have a bunch that were making more than they were worth and couldn't trade them for a bag of pucks.  Wideman, Bouma, Stajan (lesser issue), Smid, etc....

 

 

There were a lot of people that would have traded Brodie the way his season was going. You are right about one thing it has been a long time since this organization has had the depth to make solid hockey trades. The pipeline that BT is building will allow for some prudent changes from age to youth eventually. I give the situation a few more years and I wouldn't be afraid to trade Giordano or Brodie.

[travel_dude]

13 hours ago, MAC331 said:

There were a lot of people that would have traded Brodie the way his season was going. You are right about one thing it has been a long time since this organization has had the depth to make solid hockey trades. The pipeline that BT is building will allow for some prudent changes from age to youth eventually. I give the situation a few more years and I wouldn't be afraid to trade Giordano or Brodie.

 

I was very critical of Brodie this past season, but I give him a bit of a pass.  Hard to look effective when you are saddled with Wideman, or have to provide offense when Engelland's skating required you to get back in a hurry.  Not that Engelland was bad at defending, just that if he had to get back he would lose foot races.  Besides that, he had a very tough year emotion wise.

 

Gio was our best defender last year, but I can't see him staying that way for longer than 3 tears.  He will still be pretty darn good, just not elite.  Makes sense that he could be a trade piece then, assuming we have a guy like Juuso stepping up.  The other option is Backlund, assuming one of our few prospect centers can step up.  

[DirtyDeeds]

On 7/13/2017 at 0:22 PM, rickross said:

We need our forward prospects to step it up. We spent a lot of picks drafting forwards and we've seen better development with our D prospects. I commend BT as well...he killed it this off season, all prior to July 1st. I was a bit surprised that BT was prepared to go "all in" swing that we still have a few holes to plug. Our goalies and new D men are still unproven under the Flames system, those are key pieces we shouldn't crown prior to see the results. BT has more faith in GG at this point then I, I believe he's a great coach that can see us through as contenders but I'm not ready to say he's the one to push us into the elite tier of teams. Ferland is a capable linemate for JH and Monny but we need a true 1st line RW, Brouwer isn't it and I'd say Foo is a long shot to crack 1st line duties this year. They need an additional threat on that line to open up more room for JH and Monny, otherwise teams simply pressure JH taking away his playmaking opportunities. Besides your 2nd line shouldn't be your best line all year...that's why you pay top $ to your 1st line players. Here's hoping the Flames can solve their RW riddle this season. 

I don't see the D development with the same eye as you do. Exactly which D has been developed within our system other than Brodie?

 

As for our forwards, only a few nobrainer picks have advanced to the Flames and they pretty much bypassed the development altogether(JH, Mony for example)

[MAC331]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

I was very critical of Brodie this past season, but I give him a bit of a pass.  Hard to look effective when you are saddled with Wideman, or have to provide offense when Engelland's skating required you to get back in a hurry.  Not that Engelland was bad at defending, just that if he had to get back he would lose foot races.  Besides that, he had a very tough year emotion wise.

 

Gio was our best defender last year, but I can't see him staying that way for longer than 3 tears.  He will still be pretty darn good, just not elite.  Makes sense that he could be a trade piece then, assuming we have a guy like Juuso stepping up.  The other option is Backlund, assuming one of our few prospect centers can step up.  

I agree with you on Brodie however he will need to get back to his old self and by that I mean contributing when in the offensive zone. He looked literally clueless at times always looking to pass off instead of shooting. Playing with Hamonic should be a better answer.

It is looking like BT is going to play out the Backlund to Bennett scenario with no extension to Backlund for now. This could be a calculated risk that Bennett emerges as planned and then Jankowski to others allows Backlund to be expendable.

[MAC331]

15 hours ago, rickross said:

The more I think on it the more I'm open to the Flames signing Jagr. He's always had good possession numbers and he's a master at puck protection...he just seems like a good compliment to JH and Monny. They played well with a skilled guy like Hudler so maybe it works with Jagr. To be honest I just want that Jagr Flames jersey lol

The guy is 45 let's not.

[rickross]

29 minutes ago, DirtyDeeds said:

I don't see the D development with the same eye as you do. Exactly which D has been developed within our system other than Brodie?

 

As for our forwards, only a few nobrainer picks have advanced to the Flames and they pretty much bypassed the development altogether(JH, Mony for example)

I'd say Kulak, Wotherspoon and Anderson are closer right now then Shink,Poirier and Klimchuk. I'm not counting Bennett, JH and Monny as they all graduated immediately. Our D prospects and goalies are the strength of our prospect pool As it stands. Other than Janko and maybe Foo we don't have many forwards we can say are ready for full time duties.