Auston Matthews - The real prize?

[DirtyDeeds]

In the Lindros trade it is very easy to argue that Quebec/Colorado got the best player in the trade when they got Forsberg.

In this hypothetical situation, the player I would look to trade is Monahan. He would bring in a very good return. I also think Bennett and Matthews have much higher ceilings than Monahan, as I think he has already hit his ceiling.

Monahan has not hit his ceiling or come close yet.

 

The reason for his lack of stats(points) improvement, is because he is not playing with the same Huds as last year.

 

• His 2 way play has improved this season over last year and the competition faced is tougher.
• His faceoffs are still improving.
• He is bigger and stronger and will continue to get bigger and stronger for a few more years.

 

There are a lot of areas that Monahan can continue to develop and improve upon.

[JTech780]

Monahan has not hit his ceiling or come close yet.

The reason for his lack of stats(points) improvement, is because he is not playing with the same Huds as last year.

• His 2 way play has improved this season over last year and the competition faced is tougher.
• His faceoffs are still improving.
• He is bigger and stronger and will continue to get bigger and stronger for a few more years.

There are a lot of areas that Monahan can continue to develop and improve upon.

I was meaning more offensively. He is a player that is reliant on the talent around him to produce points.

Sure he can develop more defensively and in the face-off circle, but offensively I don't see him being anything more than he is now

[The_People1]

Interesting idea.   At first glance, I don't like it.  Too much offense, not enough defense.  But maybe there is a way it could work?

 

Is there an example where that's worked in the past?  Would be an interesting experiment at the last.

 

Sure it's worked before. 

 

Crosby, Malkin, Staal

Kopitar, Carter, Richards

Krejci, Bergeron, Seguin

[jjgallow]

Sure it's worked before. 

 

Crosby, Malkin, Staal

Kopitar, Carter, Richards

Krejci, Bergeron, Seguin

 

Good point.

 

But....is that working?   Will they...make the playoffs this year?

[AlbertaBoy12]

Good point.

 

But....is that working?   Will they...make the playoffs this year?

Boston and La both won cups with that group of centres listed..If I recall correctly pittsburgh had staal for their cup as well.

[jjgallow]

Boston and La both won cups with that group of centres listed..If I recall correctly pittsburgh had staal for their cup as well.

 

Monahan  >>>>>  Staal, by a long shot.  Then, now, at any point.

 

I'd be interested in the Boston or La comparison though....

 

But...tooo tired to remember or look it up lol...

 

 

 

Edit:   Boston....I'd rule that out.  In fact the only comparable center in their whole roster might have been Patrice Bergeron, and I would argue that Monahan, Bennett, Matthews are all better than him:

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000322011.html

 

 

Los Angeles....  OK.   I have to agree with this one:   Mike Richards, Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter.

 

 

The only catch:   They brought Jeff Carter over as a rental going into the playoffs.  (ended up keeping him).

 

So, still some salary-cap related questions as to whether you can build a winning team with three #1 Centers, under the salary cap.

[The_People1]

So, still some salary-cap related questions as to whether you can build a winning team with three #1 Centers, under the salary cap.

 

Depends.  If all three #1 Centers are asking $9-mil each, then forget about it.  The key would be to get them all signed for say, one of them at $8, second at $7, and the third at $6.  There can still be room for decent wingers but no one fancy.  On D, you'd probably want to spend on a "big 3" and lock them up long term as well.  It leaves little money left for a stud goalie but it can be done.

 

FORWARDS ($41)

LW($4) - Matthews ($8) -  RW($1)

LW($4) - Bennett ($7) - RW($1)

LW($4) - Monahan ($6) - RW($1)

LW($1) - C($1) - RW($1)

X: F($1), F($1)

 

DEFENSEMEN ($22)

LD($6) - RD($6)

LD($4) - RD($3)

LD($1) - RD($1)

X: D($1)

 

GOALTENDING ($8)

Starter ($7)

Back-up ($1)

[gsp393]

Depends.  If all three #1 Centers are asking $9-mil each, then forget about it.  The key would be to get them all signed for say, one of them at $8, second at $7, and the third at $6.  There can still be room for decent wingers but no one fancy.  On D, you'd probably want to spend on a "big 3" and lock them up long term as well.  It leaves little money left for a stud goalie but it can be done.

 

FORWARDS ($41)

LW($4) - Matthews ($8) -  RW($1)

LW($4) - Bennett ($7) - RW($1)

LW($4) - Monahan ($6) - RW($1)

LW($1) - C($1) - RW($1)

X: F($1), F($1)

 

DEFENSEMEN ($22)

LD($6) - RD($6)

LD($4) - RD($3)

LD($1) - RD($1)

X: D($1)

 

GOALTENDING ($8)

Starter ($7)

Back-up ($1)

Hate it! You left out a hometown favourite at left wing.

 

I think if we get Matthews then the key would be going bridge deals on our young players. Get a discounted rate for the next 2-4 years so we can ice a "Dream Team" and hopefully win one or multiple cups in that time.

 

After that period you make get to make the tough decisions of who to trade and who to keep. Great thing there is these guys are near their prime so you know exactly what each guy is and can make a more educated decision on who fits the style of team youre building rather than just projecting.

 

And finally, youve now got this asset(s) that everyone wants and will pay an arm and leg for so you can restart the cycle with a high pick or another high end prospect

[xstrike]

I just got my Monahan jersey!

[AlbertaBoy12]

Total cap hit 67.475 with this team.

 

FORWARDS ($36)

JH($6.75) - Matthews (925k) -  RW($1)

LW($4) - Bennett ($6.5) - RW($1)

LW($1) - Monahan ($6) - Frolik($4.3)

LW($1) - C($1) - RW($1)

X: F($1), F($1)

 

DEFENSEMEN ($23.15)

Gio($6.75) - Hamilton($5.75)

Brodie($4.65) - RD($3)

LD($1) - RD($1)

X: D($1)

 

GOALTENDING ($8)

Starter ($7)

Back-up ($1)

This looks great on paper. But at the same time if we drafted matthews next year we would still have 3 years of ELC, plus brodies current contract and hamiltons current contract. Which are acutally not so bad 5.75 for hamilton, 4.65 for brodie till 2021 and 2020 respectively. With Gios cap hit being 6.75 until 2022. I changed it to reflect current contracts because we wouldnt have to worry about signing matthews long term until 2020? The cap hit of 925k for mcdavid being the comparable.

 

This gives you a good look at how our team would look until 2020, if we were to draft matthews. Although I feel like we might not have to spend that much on a started and might have to spend more on our top 6 right wingers.

[420since1974]

The total $ on D looks right.

 

If the bottom 3 D can all skate and defend decently, the starting goalie could be had for $2M less.

 

I'd add that to the budget for forwards.

[jjgallow]

Depends.  If all three #1 Centers are asking $9-mil each, then forget about it.  The key would be to get them all signed for say, one of them at $8, second at $7, and the third at $6.  There can still be room for decent wingers but no one fancy.  On D, you'd probably want to spend on a "big 3" and lock them up long term as well.  It leaves little money left for a stud goalie but it can be done.

 

FORWARDS ($41)

LW($4) - Matthews ($8) -  RW($1)

LW($4) - Bennett ($7) - RW($1)

LW($4) - Monahan ($6) - RW($1)

LW($1) - C($1) - RW($1)

X: F($1), F($1)

 

DEFENSEMEN ($22)

LD($6) - RD($6)

LD($4) - RD($3)

LD($1) - RD($1)

X: D($1)

 

GOALTENDING ($8)

Starter ($7)

Back-up ($1)

 

 

Thanks Peeps, this has really got me thinking!

 

So....yes...it is possible.   Hmm....it looks very tempting.

 

Some counterpoints though:

 

-High likelihood of Monahan walking or feellling snubbed.   Unfortunate role for a guy who could really lead a team.

 

-$3m for a true 2nd-line Right D.....could we be competitive that way?   I kind of think your first two D-lines should be world class.

 

 

-Putting Monhan with a $1m LW, and Frolik....is that really good use of Monahan?

 

-Can you Imagine what we would get for Matthews?  Or Bennett?  Or Monahan?

 

 

p.s...Random thought....what I really want....is a generational defenceman.  The next Bobby Orr.  In this modern era, that would be deadly.

[kehatch]

I don't agree that number break down is practical. The average cost for your top 9 wingers is 2.5 million and that isn't realistic. Even ignoring that we have Gaudreau you still need to invest something at wing to make your centres effective.

My ideal breakdown is something like

5-7-5

4-6-4

2-2-2

1-1-1

1-1

7-6

5-4

1-1

1

6

1

Obviously you shuffle things around to suit what you have (like paying for Gaudreau). But I can't see 21 million invested into three centres.

[cross16]

Only way spending that much on centers works is if you hit on some draft picks that can play key roles at low $ figures. Boston, La, Chicago, PIttsburg etc all had to deal away centers in order to make their cap work out, so I don't think its a sustainable plan.

 

That being said you don't trade anyone until you know what you have. If the Flames got Matthews, they would be 3 years away from paying him and would have plenty of time to figure out what they ahve in him, Bennett, Mony etc. You do not trade high end talent until you know what you have or you get offered a trade you can't refuse and in today's day and age that isn't likely to happen.  The trade value of guys like Benny, MOny, Mathews etc its not likely to ever go down so its something to easily work around but so many things have to happen before that's even a conversation.

[jjgallow]

 

That being said you don't trade anyone until you know what you have.

 

Hate to bring the three-goalie discussion into this, but....

 

Is it really such a good idea to have three centers with first-line center market value, and play all three until they don't all have that market value?  Should the NHL season really be an experiment to see who's who, by dividing fair chances several ways?

 

At least One of them is sure to disappoint.    And you'll never know if it's because they were destined to, or because that's the situation they were placed in.

 

I would almost think that, in terms of market value, your best trading opportunity is before any of them start the season.  Or at the draft itself.   That way you get maximum value, and you give your players Optimum opportunity for development and success.

 

Not to get ahead of ourselves, or anything lol

[The_People1]

Only way spending that much on centers works is if you hit on some draft picks that can play key roles at low $ figures. Boston, La, Chicago, PIttsburg etc all had to deal away centers in order to make their cap work out, so I don't think its a sustainable plan.

 

We need to hit our picks regardless so that doesn't really say anything.

 

In terms of sustainability, I don't think we should be too worried about sustainability.  In the salary cap era, it's so difficult to stay at the top for very long anyways.  Having 3 stud Centers will set us up really good for when we hit a good draft year and three or four kids at $1-mil can produce at $5-mil.  That's all it may take to win the Cup.

 

It's pretty obvious that bottom 6 $1-mil players are dime a dozen in the NHL.  It's the top 6 $1-mil that will be a big challenge but they do exist.  We just have to draft well, or sign a guy like Panarin from the KHL.  It's difficult but it's been done.

[cross16]

Hate to bring the three-goalie discussion into this, but....

 

Is it really such a good idea to have three centers with first-line center market value, and play all three until they don't all have that market value?  Should the NHL season really be an experiment to see who's who, by dividing fair chances several ways?

 

At least One of them is sure to disappoint.    And you'll never know if it's because they were destined to, or because that's the situation they were placed in.

 

I would almost think that, in terms of market value, your best trading opportunity is before any of them start the season.  Or at the draft itself.   That way you get maximum value, and you give your players Optimum opportunity for development and success.

 

Not to get ahead of ourselves, or anything lol

 

Pens traded Jordan Staal for 8th overal pick, solid young top 9 center and an above average prospect and he was essentially their 3rd line center. Teams will always pay up for top player so there is no sense rushing into a trade. 

We need to hit our picks regardless so that doesn't really say anything.

 

In terms of sustainability, I don't think we should be too worried about sustainability.  In the salary cap era, it's so difficult to stay at the top for very long anyways.  Having 3 stud Centers will set us up really good for when we hit a good draft year and three or four kids at $1-mil can produce at $5-mil.  That's all it may take to win the Cup.

 

It's pretty obvious that bottom 6 $1-mil players are dime a dozen in the NHL.  It's the top 6 $1-mil that will be a big challenge but they do exist.  We just have to draft well, or sign a guy like Panarin from the KHL.  It's difficult but it's been done.

 

You do but under the plan you put up there you are looking for 2 top 6 forwrads for 1million or less. That means you need 2 top 6 wingers that come from the draft or KHL PLUS the additional help in the bottom 6. You are starting to ask for a quite a bit. 

 

It can work for a yera or two but all i'm saying it as some point I don't think you can ahve 3 centers all making that much money so you have to be prepared to deal one. That's not an issue for me pending you get the right return like when the Pens had to deal Staal. 

 

I don't disagree its hard to stay up top but I think what you want to avoid is a situation where you load up to try and win a cup and screw up your cap in the process. A key reason why Chicago has been so successful is they've been willing to make trades like Saad, Leddy etc to keep a healthy cap year after year. Boston has struggled to get back after loading up and yes I get they won but you don't always win so I think you have to have some degree of concern over your sustainability. 

 

In terms of the specifics to the Flames here thought i'm not sure all this matters consdiering Bennett can easily go to the wing and i've seen Mathews play on the wing at times too. PIck up the top end talent anyway you can and just find a way to make the lineup work. 

[jjgallow]

Pens traded Jordan Staal for 8th overal pick, solid young top 9 center and an above average prospect and he was essentially their 3rd line center. Teams will always pay up for top player so there is no sense rushing into a trade. 

 

So in other words, the Pens traded Jordan Staal for spare parts and players that will never have any meaningful core impact in the NHL, if any, for a legitimate top 2 Center in his youth.

 

The 8th overall was in the Jankowski draft.  Or, in your words:

http://fans.flames.nhl.com/community/topic/18121-mark-jankowski/page-25

The 2012 draft also was a softer draft year that no one seems overly excited about. I recall an article in the Hockey News where Weisbrod commented that a little more than half a dozen players that were picked in the 1st round were actually given no draft grades by the Flames. So basically 1/5 of the first round prospects the Flames woudln't have been comfortable taking at any round of the draft, so it was a really open draft.

 

Looking back on it they wre probably right, the 2012 draft is not looking very good. I dont' agree that the reached on Jankowski at all but I think part of the reason they were more comfortable taking a bit of a risk was the draft itself wasn't very good. Jankowski still has a reasonable chance of being one of the better picks from that first round. 

 

 

Staal was never a third line center for any team other than the Pens.   Trading him as one, was costly.

[cross16]

So in other words, the Pens traded Jordan Staal for spare parts and players that will never have any meaningful core impact in the NHL, if any, for a legitimate top 2 Center in his youth.

 

The 8th overall was in the Jankowski draft.  Or, in your words:

http://fans.flames.nhl.com/community/topic/18121-mark-jankowski/page-25

 

 

Staal was never a third line center for any team other than the Pens.   Trading him as one, was costly.

 

What? 

 

First of all the trade was for Brandon Sutter, the 8th overal pick and Brian Doumalin. How is that spare parts?

Brandon Sutter actually has more goals than Jordan Staal since the trade. has 40 less points yes but Jordan Staal does have a more offensive role and IMO the defensive game between the 2 is a wash. Doumalin is emerging as a top 4 dman for the Pens as well. No to mention the Penguins saved themselves 3 mill a year in that deal.

 

You must think much higher of Jordan Staal then I do JJ becuase IMO Pittsburg did really well in that trade. Jordan staal has only become a decent 2nd line center at best since he went to Carolina and even then might be a reach to call him that. Funny enough, his stats have actually gone down since he went from Pitts to Carolina. 

[jjgallow]

What? 

 

First of all the trade was for Brandon Sutter, the 8th overal pick and Brian Doumalin. How is that spare parts?

Brandon Sutter actually has more goals than Jordan Staal since the trade. has 40 less points yes but Jordan Staal does have a more offensive role and IMO the defensive game between the 2 is a wash. Doumalin is emerging as a top 4 dman for the Pens as well. No to mention the Penguins saved themselves 3 mill a year in that deal.

 

You must think much higher of Jordan Staal then I do JJ becuase IMO Pittsburg did really well in that trade. Jordan staal has only become a decent 2nd line center at best since he went to Carolina and even then might be a reach to call him that. Funny enough, his stats have actually gone down since he went from Pitts to Carolina. 

 

Actually, I didn't realize they traded him for Brandon. I somehow missed that.. 

 

That changes things, lol.

 

 

Ok....so they got a good deal out of that trade.   At least, for what Staal was worth then.

 

Even with that, he was still worth more in his rookie year.  Than he ever was after 6 mediocre seasons with the Pens.

[Crzydrvr]

Take Matthews, let everything else work itself out.

 

Consensus top pick according to TSN's Bob McKenzie right now too, although about half of the surveyed scouts said that Auston is only a little bit ahead of Laine right now.

[jjgallow]

Take Matthews, let everything else work itself out.

 

Consensus top pick according to TSN's Bob McKenzie right now too, although about half of the surveyed scouts said that Auston is only a little bit ahead of Laine right now.

 

Kind of agree....my debate with cross is really kind of a moot point. I was more leaning towards trading Monahan or Bennett.

 

With a note that everything has a price (including Matthews).

 

It would be a fantastic problem to have!   

 

 

It's true, we could just let things work out and play all three for 2 years.  But whoever ends up on the third line will likely see their development, and value, diminish.  Not unlike what happened with Staal.   Personally, I think we're starting to get an idea of what we have in Monahan.  Still really early days with Bennett.   

[kehatch]

Take Matthews, let everything else work itself out.

Consensus top pick according to TSN's Bob McKenzie right now too, although about half of the surveyed scouts said that Auston is only a little bit ahead of Laine right now.

Absolutely. It is unlikely that the Flames get the top pick, but if we do there will be zero debate that the Flames should pick him. I must have not read high enough because I didn't even know that was a discussion.

Having too many great young centres isn't a problem. Keep them at centre, convert them to wing, or trade them. All three scenarios are good ones.

[The_People1]

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl-central-scouting-international-skater-rankings-1.425358

 

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl-central-scouting-north-american-skater-rankings-1.425355

 

Central Scouting just released their Mid-Term rankings and Matthews is still #1 (duh)...

 

But what's interesting is there seems to be a group of 4 who have emerged in that pack right after Matthews. 

 

Seems the consensus right now is,

1. Matthews

2. Puljujarvi

3. Thackuk

4. Laine

5. Chychrun

 

While the odds are against the Flames picking #1 overall, it would be interesting if they get the 3rd or 4th overall pick.

[AlbertaBoy12]

 

While the odds are against the Flames picking #1 overall, it would be interesting if they get the 3rd or 4th overall pick.

I would have to agree with you. Although really if the flames draft anywhere in the top 6 or 7 players in this draft we will get a really good player who could fill a void. Im looking forward to the draft to see who we pick.