Brad Treliving - GM Tracking & Evaluation

[cccsberg]

16 hours ago, stubblejumper1 said:

 

In 03-04 (the season before the cap was put in place) Detroit spent $77.85 MM.  The Rangers ($76.5 MM) were the only other team that spent more than $70MM.  Only 5 other teams spent over $60MM.  The average salary was $44.4MM.  I don't think this is a cherry picked view of how salaries were in the 90s and early 2000s. 

 

Detroit was spending 1.75x the average salary, with only one team spending more than 90% of Detroit's payroll.  That is a big advantage.  Off the top of my head, it allowed them to bring in (and keep) the following hall of famers: Shanahan, Larry Murphy, Chelios, Hull, Robitaille, and Hasek.  

 

They also drafted well, as I mentioned earlier.  Off the top of my head, Yzerman, Lidstrom, Draper, Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Holmstrom.  

 

And note, Detroit was garbage for a long time before they finally built a powerhouse.  They missed the playoffs 12 out of 13 years prior to drafting Yzerman.  That is some major tanking.  

No doubt it was a big advantage, but you also said NYR also spent massively, and they got very limited results.....

[travel_dude]

Noah Hanifin and Matthew Tkachuk.  The two big challenges for BT this summer.

Hoping for less than $13m for the pair, both signed long term.

We need a goalie next season, so the cap will be a bit tight.

Assuming that Ras can take a big step this season, Stone is the likely first victim for a trade or buyout.

Buyout next summer is only $1.16m, but it's not desirable.  A trade makes sense.

If Stone rebounds this year to overtake Hamonic or Brodie, then a trade doesn't make sense.

Somehow I doubt Stone rebounds.

 

As it stands today, we have $19m for 19/20.

If the cap increases to 81m, then we have $21m with 9F and 4D and 1 backup goalie.

Subtract $13m for Hanifin/Tkachuk.

Lazar and Hathaway (or replacements) $2m

Ras and Kulak (or equivalent) for $2m.

13th F for $0.8m

Leaves us with $3.2m with 13F 6D and 1G. 

No Bennett signed.

No extra D signed.

No goalie signed.

 

We can't cut costs on Tkachuk.  Hanifin will get $5m minimum, unless a bridge deal is possible and then it's still around $3.5m.  Unless we have two goalies that can share the load (Rittich and Gillies), we have to shell out for a starter.  Stone being traded is almost a necessity.  Next most likely is Frolik.  After that there is only Brodie and Hamonic, of which we have a bigger need for a RHS D-man.

 

 

 

 

[MAC331]

20 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

Noah Hanifin and Matthew Tkachuk.  The two big challenges for BT this summer.

Hoping for less than $13m for the pair, both signed long term.

We need a goalie next season, so the cap will be a bit tight.

Assuming that Ras can take a big step this season, Stone is the likely first victim for a trade or buyout.

Buyout next summer is only $1.16m, but it's not desirable.  A trade makes sense.

If Stone rebounds this year to overtake Hamonic or Brodie, then a trade doesn't make sense.

Somehow I doubt Stone rebounds.

 

As it stands today, we have $19m for 19/20.

If the cap increases to 81m, then we have $21m with 9F and 4D and 1 backup goalie.

Subtract $13m for Hanifin/Tkachuk.

Lazar and Hathaway (or replacements) $2m

Ras and Kulak (or equivalent) for $2m.

13th F for $0.8m

Leaves us with $3.2m with 13F 6D and 1G. 

No Bennett signed.

No extra D signed.

No goalie signed.

 

We can't cut costs on Tkachuk.  Hanifin will get $5m minimum, unless a bridge deal is possible and then it's still around $3.5m.  Unless we have two goalies that can share the load (Rittich and Gillies), we have to shell out for a starter.  Stone being traded is almost a necessity.  Next most likely is Frolik.  After that there is only Brodie and Hamonic, of which we have a bigger need for a RHS D-man.

 

 

 

 

Slow day eh ?

What is Stone rebounding from ? He is what he is really, good but over-paid defenseman with a limited no move clause.

I can see Stone gone by the 2019/20 season but the main subtraction IMO will be Frolik. I could see where he could be used to get us a Goalie if the need arises this season.

Tkachuk I would leave his contract to next offseason.

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, MAC331 said:

Slow day eh ?

What is Stone rebounding from ? He is what he is really, good but over-paid defenseman with a limited no move clause.

I can see Stone gone by the 2019/20 season but the main subtraction IMO will be Frolik. I could see where he could be used to get us a Goalie if the need arises this season.

Tkachuk I would leave his contract to next offseason.

 

Stone has not lived up to his career year of 36 points.  Rebounding to that.

He wasn't good by most measures, not just points, so a better showing would be necessary for keeping him over Brodie/Hamonic on RD.

 

There is no benefit to waiting on Tkachuk.  If he doesn't improve this year, the signing will go up anyway with any cap increase.

If he get 60 points, then he's going to get similar to what JH makes, adjusted for cap.

This season, $6.5m is reasonable on a long term deal.

Next year, he could be worth over $7m.

 

In the end, it makes no difference to the cap when he signs.  If you can cut $500k by signing early, do it.

[MAC331]

33 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Stone has not lived up to his career year of 36 points.  Rebounding to that.

He wasn't good by most measures, not just points, so a better showing would be necessary for keeping him over Brodie/Hamonic on RD.

 

There is no benefit to waiting on Tkachuk.  If he doesn't improve this year, the signing will go up anyway with any cap increase.

If he get 60 points, then he's going to get similar to what JH makes, adjusted for cap.

This season, $6.5m is reasonable on a long term deal.

Next year, he could be worth over $7m.

 

In the end, it makes no difference to the cap when he signs.  If you can cut $500k by signing early, do it.

Let's forget Stone not worth debating.

Everyone seems to be anointing Tkachuk as a superstar before he has really performed to that standard. Don't get me wrong I like him as a player but some IMO are getting way ahead of themselves with him.

[travel_dude]

2 hours ago, MAC331 said:

Let's forget Stone not worth debating.

Everyone seems to be anointing Tkachuk as a superstar before he has really performed to that standard. Don't get me wrong I like him as a player but some IMO are getting way ahead of themselves with him.

 

To each his own I guess.  Tkachuk has played on in the hardest role for a teenager possible.

Worst zone starts.

Defensive role.

Agitator, but to draw more penalties than taken, which he is tops in the NHL.

24 goals in 68 games.

A force on the PP.

 

He has only played 2 seasons, so that part of it should bring a little caution.  But we haven't seen a sheltered player scoring against lesser competition.    

 

The comps for that type of player are difficult because most are older.  If he was signed at the same time as Gaudreau for the same term, then he would have been getting about $6m.  Most contracts are signed as % of cap these days (for the bigger deals), so that would be close to JH money today.

[Thebrewcrew]

Gonna take a guess here.

 

Tkachuk gets 6.25x6

Hanifin signs 5.4x6

[MAC331]

40 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

To each his own I guess.  Tkachuk has played on in the hardest role for a teenager possible.

Worst zone starts.

Defensive role.

Agitator, but to draw more penalties than taken, which he is tops in the NHL.

24 goals in 68 games.

A force on the PP.

 

He has only played 2 seasons, so that part of it should bring a little caution.  But we haven't seen a sheltered player scoring against lesser competition.    

 

The comps for that type of player are difficult because most are older.  If he was signed at the same time as Gaudreau for the same term, then he would have been getting about $6m.  Most contracts are signed as % of cap these days (for the bigger deals), so that would be close to JH money today.

You are right to each their own, I think he has some dues to put in yet. Hanifin will be 4 years in so let's get him done.

[MAC331]

34 minutes ago, Thebrewcrew said:

Gonna take a guess here.

 

Tkachuk gets 6.25x6

Hanifin signs 5.4x6

You see I wouldn't do that now with Tkachuk. If you think he is going to be that good let him prove himself for another season and go for the 8 year deal.

[cross16]

21 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

You see I wouldn't do that now with Tkachuk. If you think he is going to be that good let him prove himself for another season and go for the 8 year deal.

 

That's tough logic to follow. If you think he is going to be that good why would you let him get more expensive?

I can understand if people have the "i'd rather see a player pay their dues" philosophy. I don't agree with it but I get it, but if you are sold on what and who Tkachuk is you absolutely without question should lock him up as soon as you possibly can and for as long as you can.  He'll only get more affordable not less. 

[MAC331]

31 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

That's tough logic to follow. If you think he is going to be that good why would you let him get more expensive?

I can understand if people have the "i'd rather see a player pay their dues" philosophy. I don't agree with it but I get it, but if you are sold on what and who Tkachuk is you absolutely without question should lock him up as soon as you possibly can and for as long as you can.  He'll only get more affordable not less. 

I guess I am not totally sold on where Tkachuk tops out as a player and his production level. Maybe he is no better than what BT just paid Lindholm. Maybe it is just me but I would wait.

[robrob74]

If Tkachuk thinks he is as good as some, he shouldn’t sign until next year. 

 

I think thay had it right last week on the Fan that if he has a down year he can still point to the past 2 years and get what he’d make today (what Mac and I would think he should get). If he has a year everyone else thinks he’ll have he’ll get the 7 everyone else believes it’ll be.

[travel_dude]

50 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

If Tkachuk thinks he is as good as some, he shouldn’t sign until next year. 

 

I think thay had it right last week on the Fan that if he has a down year he can still point to the past 2 years and get what he’d make today (what Mac and I would think he should get). If he has a year everyone else thinks he’ll have he’ll get the 7 everyone else believes it’ll be.

 

Why would BT wait if he believes he's a $7m player.  I can understand Tkachuk wanting to bet on himself and waiting.  That could end up being worse.

What you have to take into account is the increase to cap and the comps that get signed every year.

 

Some comps:

Larkin $6.1 x 5. - .76 p/gp in 2018

Hayes $5.175m x 1  - .57 p/gp in 2018

Tom Wilson $5.166m x 6 - .39 p/gp in 2018

Ehlers $6m x 7  - .78 p/p in 2017 (signed extension in his last year of ELC)

Tkachuk ??  -  .72 p/gp in 2018

 

BT's best option is to sign him now.  If he doesn;t increase his numbers, he still wont be any cheaper next summer.  If he explodes, then he will make a lot more.  He wants to sign today for 8 years at $5m (not sure what number you are thinking) then roll out the red carpet.  That is underpaying by a long shot.  4 years of free agency.  That does not come cheap.    It would probably work out to $500k cap increase for every year of free agency bought. 

[Fins&FIre15]

Ya'll crazy if you think tkachuk signs at any point before the end of next season.

[robrob74]

6 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

Why would BT wait if he believes he's a $7m player.  I can understand Tkachuk wanting to bet on himself and waiting.  That could end up being worse.

What you have to take into account is the increase to cap and the comps that get signed every year.

 

Some comps:

Larkin $6.1 x 5. - .76 p/gp in 2018

Hayes $5.175m x 1  - .57 p/gp in 2018

Tom Wilson $5.166m x 6 - .39 p/gp in 2018

Ehlers $6m x 7  - .78 p/p in 2017 (signed extension in his last year of ELC)

Tkachuk ??  -  .72 p/gp in 2018

 

BT's best option is to sign him now.  If he doesn;t increase his numbers, he still wont be any cheaper next summer.  If he explodes, then he will make a lot more.  He wants to sign today for 8 years at $5m (not sure what number you are thinking) then roll out the red carpet.  That is underpaying by a long shot.  4 years of free agency.  That does not come cheap.    It would probably work out to $500k cap increase for every year of free agency bought. 

 

Yeah, I just said that it was Tkachuk who would be better off waiting. 

Mod xourse BT should want to sign him now. 

[cccsberg]

21 hours ago, travel_dude said:

Noah Hanifin and Matthew Tkachuk.  The two big challenges for BT this summer.

Hoping for less than $13m for the pair, both signed long term.

We need a goalie next season, so the cap will be a bit tight.

Assuming that Ras can take a big step this season, Stone is the likely first victim for a trade or buyout.

Buyout next summer is only $1.16m, but it's not desirable.  A trade makes sense.

If Stone rebounds this year to overtake Hamonic or Brodie, then a trade doesn't make sense.

Somehow I doubt Stone rebounds.

 

As it stands today, we have $19m for 19/20.

If the cap increases to 81m, then we have $21m with 9F and 4D and 1 backup goalie.

Subtract $13m for Hanifin/Tkachuk.

Lazar and Hathaway (or replacements) $2m

Ras and Kulak (or equivalent) for $2m.

13th F for $0.8m

Leaves us with $3.2m with 13F 6D and 1G. 

No Bennett signed.

No extra D signed.

No goalie signed.

 

We can't cut costs on Tkachuk.  Hanifin will get $5m minimum, unless a bridge deal is possible and then it's still around $3.5m.  Unless we have two goalies that can share the load (Rittich and Gillies), we have to shell out for a starter.  Stone being traded is almost a necessity.  Next most likely is Frolik.  After that there is only Brodie and Hamonic, of which we have a bigger need for a RHS D-man.

 

 

 

 

Nice take, here's how I would adjust:

 

As it stands today, we have $19m for 19/20.

If the cap increases to $81m, then we have $21m with 9F and 4D and a 1B goalie.

Subtract $12m for Hanifin/Tkachuk at $5.5 & $6.5 respectively... (10F, 5D, 1G, $9m)

Lazar and Hathaway dropped.  Add Mangiapanne & Klimchuk at $750 each = $1.5m... (12F, 5D, 1G, $7.5)

Kulak traded at TDL and Stone traded after playoffs saving -$3.5m the following year... (12F, 3D, 1G, $11m)

Add Ras, Valimaki & Kylington for $2.4m.  Re-sign one of Hogstrom/Prout for $800.... (12F, 7D, 1G, $7.8)

Add Dube and Foo for $1.7m... (14F, 7D,1G, $6.1)

 

You have Bennett un-signed and need another goalie, probably at least a 1A type starter to go with Gillies.  You have $6.1m in Cap Room.  Bennett is either traded or you sign him and switch him in for someone above or already signed.  If Bennett has a huge breakthrough and needs $6m, you trade Frolik, saving $4.3m then add $1.7 leaving  $4.4m for a 1A starting goalie.  If either of Rittich or Gillies develop into a 1A starter you can utilize the other or Parsons for the 1B/Back-up which is going to add <$1m for the second goalie.  If Bennett ends up a 3rd liner he'll sign for maybe $3m, allowing you to keep Frolik and have ~$4m for the 1A starting goalie depending on who Bennett bumps from the 14F above.  

 

 

[travel_dude]

19 minutes ago, cccsberg said:

Subtract $12m for Hanifin/Tkachuk at $5.5 & $6.5 respectively... (10F, 5D, 1G, $9m)

 

Isn't that $13m?   

[cccsberg]

3 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

Isn't that $13m?   

No, 5.5 & 6.5=12.  I'm assuming lower contracts on both, saving $1mm.  

[cross16]

14 hours ago, Fins&FIre15 said:

Ya'll crazy if you think tkachuk signs at any point before the end of next season.

 

Depends on what number the Flames offer I think. If they try and low ball, absolutely but if they are willing to be fair and talk numbers in and around 6-6.5mill I wouldn't be so sure. Tough to turn down 50 mill guaranteed and then shred you knee, damage your back etc and see your market value drop.

 

Not always the best decision for the player to wait and get a few million more (again provided the Flames offer fair money) and put that much guaranteed at risk.

[The_People1]

3 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

Depends on what number the Flames offer I think. If they try and low ball, absolutely but if they are willing to be fair and talk numbers in and around 6-6.5mill I wouldn't be so sure. Tough to turn down 50 mill guaranteed and then shred you knee, damage your back etc and see your market value drop.

 

Not always the best decision for the player to wait and get a few million more (again provided the Flames offer fair money) and put that much guaranteed at risk.

 

Ya depends on the number but I think there's a chance Tkachuk can score 40 and ask for Draisaitl money.  So unless we hit him with $8-mil right now, he's probably motivated to wait until next summer.

[cross16]

23 minutes ago, The_People1 said:

 

Ya depends on the number but I think there's a chance Tkachuk can score 40 and ask for Draisaitl money.  So unless we hit him with $8-mil right now, he's probably motivated to wait until next summer.

 

While possible, Draisatl had 51 points, 77 points and then was a PPG over 13 playoff games in order to get that money. Even scoring 40 i'm not sure Tkachuk gets to that number.

 

But even if he does if Flames are willing to talk 6.75 million AAV, which is where I think it needs to get to, your talking 750K less than Draistil. I think it's a discussion you need to have as a group to say do we risk the 750K, turn down 50 million and hope I don't get injured? Especially considering that if his career goes as plans this won't be his only big contract. 

 

I don't pretend to know what Tkachuk and his camp are thinking I just don't think it's as easy to turn down such a large contract like that in the hopes you get a little more the following season, I think the decision is more complex than that. However, again this all rests on the idea that the Flames are willing to pay him a little more than his market value right now but IMO they should be. 

[travel_dude]

5 hours ago, cccsberg said:

No, 5.5 & 6.5=12.  I'm assuming lower contracts on both, saving $1mm.  

 

Blond moment.

I had originally had those two number in mind, but somehow came up with $13m.  

When I saw you add it up to $12m, my mind couldn't fathom it.

I would expect Hanifin 5.5 and Tkachuk 6.5 both long term.  Tkachuk would need to sign this season to get that.

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

 

While possible, Draisatl had 51 points, 77 points and then was a PPG over 13 playoff games in order to get that money. Even scoring 40 i'm not sure Tkachuk gets to that number.

 

But even if he does if Flames are willing to talk 6.75 million AAV, which is where I think it needs to get to, your talking 750K less than Draistil. I think it's a discussion you need to have as a group to say do we risk the 750K, turn down 50 million and hope I don't get injured? Especially considering that if his career goes as plans this won't be his only big contract. 

 

I don't pretend to know what Tkachuk and his camp are thinking I just don't think it's as easy to turn down such a large contract like that in the hopes you get a little more the following season, I think the decision is more complex than that. However, again this all rests on the idea that the Flames are willing to pay him a little more than his market value right now but IMO they should be. 

 

I know what you are saying and pretty much agree with your number projection, assuming term.

Draisaitl is actually making $8.5m.  Tarasenko is $7.5m.

I doubt Tkachuk would ever get $8.5m here.

[cross16]

5 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

I know what you are saying and pretty much agree with your number projection, assuming term.

Draisaitl is actually making $8.5m.  Tarasenko is $7.5m.

I doubt Tkachuk would ever get $8.5m here.

 

My bad I thought Draistil was 7.5 mill for some reason, thanks.

 

Doesn't change my opinion though. Even with a strong year I don't think Tkachuk is getting anywhere close to that number

[travel_dude]

9 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

My bad I thought Draistil was 7.5 mill for some reason, thanks.

 

Doesn't change my opinion though. Even with a strong year I don't think Tkachuk is getting anywhere close to that number

 

At the time he signed it, I felt Cha made a huge mistake.  I still don;t like it.

He was McDavid's winger and got paid after McDavid was signed.

If Nuge gets those points totals playing with McDavid, does that mean he's a $8.5m player too, adjusted for inflation?

 

The Oilers keep giving players huge raises and set the benchmark.

It even seems to drive up the cost of D-men league wide.