Flames Defense

[DirtyDeeds]

I will take any effort from our top 4D that tries to prevent a goal. Wideman cleared a tap-in goal in a previous game, Russell stops almost as much as a goalie, and Brodie has to try to keep the other D from being totally exposed.

Wideman has done this a few times this year... skated in behind the goalie and stopped a puck that was headed for the net. It is what good D do when needed.

[travel_dude]

Wideman has done this a few times this year... skated in behind the goalie and stopped a puck that was headed for the net. It is what good D do when needed.

We are in agreement Deeds. I was just focusing on the most recent example. Each of our D has stepped up in various games. Engelland has done it, Smid, Diaz....

I like to think that we have enough heart to help with the loss of Gio. Brodie is missing his play the most, and while I think Engelland has enough game to increase his minutes, I can't see him being effective anything more than 12-15 minutes. He had one game where he really stepped up, but I can't see him doing that long-term.

[MAC331]

So will I. I was simply pointing out Wideman stands to close in on our goalie half the time rather than letting the goalie do his job. He gets to far in and doesn't pick up his own man.

[DirtyDeeds]

So will I. I was simply pointing out Wideman stands to close in on our goalie half the time rather than letting the goalie do his job. He gets to far in and doesn't pick up his own man.

I have seen him tip the puck in an attempt to stop shots from reaching the goalie and sometimes blocking the view, but blocking the view is just a part of the job when the other team has players willing to go to the net.

[MAC331]

Don't get me wrong here, I like Wideman just sometimes he needs to just do his job and not everyone elses.

[420since1974]

After 66 games, the Flames have given up 1918 shots on goal (27.6/game).

 

What's really astonishing is that they have blocked an additional 977 shots on goal.

 

Essentially, they are blocking every 3rd shot directed at the net.

[DirtyDeeds]

After 66 games, the Flames have given up 1918 shots on goal (27.6/game).

 

What's really astonishing is that they have blocked an additional 977 shots on goal.

 

Essentially, they are blocking every 3rd shot directed at the net.

When you are not a big puck possession team, things like blocking shots are essential to success. Strong forecheck is another requirement for success.

[CheersMan]

After 66 games, the Flames have given up 1918 shots on goal (27.6/game).

 

What's really astonishing is that they have blocked an additional 977 shots on goal.

 

Essentially, they are blocking every 3rd shot directed at the net.

 

Ramo and Hiller have a combined 0.915 SA%.  If our D stepped to the side and let those additional 977 shots go through then we would be looking at an additional 83 goals against to date.

0.915 SA% x 977 Blocked shots = 894 saves

977 additional shots – 894 saves = 83 additional goals against

That would be more than an additional goal against/game.  We would be dead last in the league, worse than the Oilers.

[robrob1974]

While we may have a few more goals against, you don't know whether the goalies would save those shots and cover the puck and who gets those rebounds. If the players concentrate on taking the rebounds away instead it could still work a bit differently.

But still I somewhat agree yet, know we will never know as those blocked shots aren't getting through.

[DirtyDeeds]

Ramo and Hiller have a combined 0.915 SA%.  If our D stepped to the side and let those additional 977 shots go through then we would be looking at an additional 83 goals against to date.

0.915 SA% x 977 Blocked shots = 894 saves

977 additional shots – 894 saves = 83 additional goals against

That would be more than an additional goal against/game.  We would be dead last in the league, worse than the Oilers.

Except no team lets all shots get to the goalie. Every team blocks shot just at a lesser rate than what the Flames do. There is no 83 extra goals worse than the Oilers senario.

[robrob1974]

Their save percentage could also rise in the process if letting those shots through.

If they get through the blocking defender, they're essentially screening the goalie.

[FlamesLogic]

Ramo and Hiller have a combined 0.915 SA%.  If our D stepped to the side and let those additional 977 shots go through then we would be looking at an additional 83 goals against to date.

0.915 SA% x 977 Blocked shots = 894 saves

977 additional shots – 894 saves = 83 additional goals against

That would be more than an additional goal against/game.  We would be dead last in the league, worse than the Oilers.

You assume all blocked shots are intentional when they arent. At best you can assume that the flames would drop to a number closer to the bottom of the league which is probably Carolina at 380 BS from their D or Edmonton at 472 BS from their D. Calgary has 908 from their D.

908-380=528 extra shots

528*0.915=483 of those saved

528-483=45 extra goals against and puts Calgary at 217 GA or 5th last in the league.

 

So yes, the Flames would drop quite a bit if they werent actively blocking the shots, but that is just one stat, you cant look at in a vacuum.

If they arent blocking them, maybe they are using team speed to harass the shooters and pull the shot total down instead.

Maybe they force the shooting team into worse shooting positions and as such the shooting efficiency of teams they play against goes down.

Maybe instead of blocking the shot they are positioning themselves for rebounds or taking away the secondary shots more effectively resulting in higher puck possession.

There are plenty of other angles to this. A high puck percentage team isnt likely to be a leader in shots blocked because they have the puck more often.

 

Arguing over one stat doesnt serve any useful information when it is all dependant and leads into other factors.

[420since1974]

Wow, I wasn't trying to start a big debate.

 

I'm just amazed at and proud of how many shots the Flames do block.

 

I don't care about the reasons; they are doing it and winning, that's what counts to me.

[CheersMan]

You assume all blocked shots are intentional when they arent. At best you can assume that the flames would drop to a number closer to the bottom of the league which is probably Carolina at 380 BS from their D or Edmonton at 472 BS from their D. Calgary has 908 from their D.

908-380=528 extra shots

528*0.915=483 of those saved

528-483=45 extra goals against and puts Calgary at 217 GA or 5th last in the league.

 

So yes, the Flames would drop quite a bit if they werent actively blocking the shots, but that is just one stat, you cant look at in a vacuum.

If they arent blocking them, maybe they are using team speed to harass the shooters and pull the shot total down instead.

Maybe they force the shooting team into worse shooting positions and as such the shooting efficiency of teams they play against goes down.

Maybe instead of blocking the shot they are positioning themselves for rebounds or taking away the secondary shots more effectively resulting in higher puck possession.

There are plenty of other angles to this. A high puck percentage team isnt likely to be a leader in shots blocked because they have the puck more often.

 

Arguing over one stat doesnt serve any useful information when it is all dependant and leads into other factors.

My example was in response to MAC331 on post #399.  I probably should have quoted him so that all could see my intent.  I was simply demonstrating that blocked shots are contributing massively to our team’s success.

On the extreme high end, 83 goals may have been prevented by the sum of our teams blocked shots.  Your example shows 45 goals may have been prevented when comparing blocks between our D and Carolina D.  I was about to do a similar comparison until I seen yours, nice job. 

[kehatch]

Wow, I wasn't trying to start a big debate.

I'm just amazed at and proud of how many shots the Flames do block.

I don't care about the reasons; they are doing it and winning, that's what counts to me.

In terms of what is happening today, I agree. Who cares why. They have heart and are winning hockey games.

We can debate the sustainability in the off season. For now, they are fighting against all odds to make the playoffs and are in a playoff spot late in the season.

[The_People1]

If Kris Russell continues to play this well down the stretch and help the Flames make the playoffs, then the Flames should focus on extending his contract this summer.  It's looking like maybe $4-mil-per for 4-years is a fair number for both sides.

[darth_henning]

There are a LOT of the team coming up on contracts this summer that need to be resigned, I'd focus on those first since Russell has another year on his contract. A little less urgent, but he DEFINITELY needs to be extended.

 

This summer we're looking at new contracts for Backlund, Jooris, Bouma for sure, likely Wolf and Byron, possibly Ramo and Diaz (though I think Diaz likely won't be signed)

 

All are manageable, but I expect the first three get bumps in pay.

 

Then next year: Giordano, Russell, Monahan, Hudler, Colborne, Jones and  maybe Hiller. < THIS is going to be an expensive year of new contracts, but other than Hiller and Jones, none of those guys should be going anywhere. Good think we've kept our cap low.

[The_People1]

Agreed, lots of contract work this summer.  With this being a "Flames Defense" topic, i was focusing primarily on D and specifically on Russell. 

 

Giordano should be locked up as soon as possible.  Based on next year's cap estimated at $73-mil, and Giordano's Norris-like performance this season, i think Gio should be looking at $7.25-mil-per for 7-years.  That will pay him until he's 38-years-old and his salary would be inline with Suter, Letang, Doughty, etc.

[FlamesLogic]

Agreed, lots of contract work this summer.  With this being a "Flames Defense" topic, i was focusing primarily on D and specifically on Russell. 

 

Giordano should be locked up as soon as possible.  Based on next year's cap estimated at $73-mil, and Giordano's Norris-like performance this season, i think Gio should be looking at $7.25-mil-per for 7-years.  That will pay him until he's 38-years-old and his salary would be inline with Suter, Letang, Doughty, etc.

[FlamesLogic]

I think Gio has been playing like a top 10 dman the last two years and if he shows the same next year by all means pay him like a top 10 guy. Just dont do it for 7 more years when he is 38 and his game has slowed down and everyone starts to regard his contract as an anchor.

 

Average cap hit for a top 10 dman = 6.9785

Player Cap Number Final Year Term Age weber 7.857 2027 14 41 suter 7.538 2026 13 40 letang 7.25 2023 8 35 campbell 7.14 2017 8 37 doughty 7 2020 8 30 dion 7 2022 7 36 chara 6.917 2019 7 41 pieterangelo 6.5 2021 7 30 karlsson 6.5 2020 7 29 green 6.083 2016 3 30 AVG 6.9785 2021.1 8.2 34.9

 

Dion, Campbell, Letang are 3 contracts Im sure those teams would like to have back. Im sure even Boston would like to shed Chara and his contract right now.

Weber and Suter at least have the benefit of time so that in 8 years when they are slowing down their respective cap hit compared to the overall cap should be smaller in comparison to what their body can produce.

 

Gio at 4 yrs for 6 mil would be team friendly

Gio at 4 years for 7 mil would be pretty fair

Gio at 4 years for 8 mil would be player friendly

 

Thats the starting points imo. Cap likely wont change much next couple years due to CDN dollar adjusting for any rise in overall revenue.

 

If he wants more term or overall dollars then we can add retirement years to lower cap hit for the term of the contract.

 

What we shouldnt do is pay him as a top 10 dman for the next 7 years because he wont be a top 10 dman for the next 7 years.

 

In 4 years if he is still producing like that by all means give him another good contract but dont give term AND dollars and bet on Gio being that generational player like Lidstrom/Bourque that produces well into his late 30's.

[The_People1]

I think Gio has been playing like a top 10 dman the last two years and if he shows the same next year by all means pay him like a top 10 guy. Just dont do it for 7 more years when he is 38 and his game has slowed down and everyone starts to regard his contract as an anchor.

 

Average cap hit for a top 10 dman = 6.9785

Player Cap Number Final Year Term Age weber 7.857 2027 14 41 suter 7.538 2026 13 40 letang 7.25 2023 8 35 campbell 7.14 2017 8 37 doughty 7 2020 8 30 dion 7 2022 7 36 chara 6.917 2019 7 41 pieterangelo 6.5 2021 7 30 karlsson 6.5 2020 7 29 green 6.083 2016 3 30 AVG 6.9785 2021.1 8.2 34.9

 

Dion, Campbell, Letang are 3 contracts Im sure those teams would like to have back. Im sure even Boston would like to shed Chara and his contract right now.

Weber and Suter at least have the benefit of time so that in 8 years when they are slowing down their respective cap hit compared to the overall cap should be smaller in comparison to what their body can produce.

 

Gio at 4 yrs for 6 mil would be team friendly

Gio at 4 years for 7 mil would be pretty fair

Gio at 4 years for 8 mil would be player friendly

 

Thats the starting points imo. Cap likely wont change much next couple years due to CDN dollar adjusting for any rise in overall revenue.

 

If he wants more term or overall dollars then we can add retirement years to lower cap hit for the term of the contract.

 

What we shouldnt do is pay him as a top 10 dman for the next 7 years because he wont be a top 10 dman for the next 7 years.

 

In 4 years if he is still producing like that by all means give him another good contract but dont give term AND dollars and bet on Gio being that generational player like Lidstrom/Bourque that produces well into his late 30's.

 

Niklas Lidstrom won his first Norris when he was 31-years-old.  Then, he went on to win 6 more Norris Trophies after that and played until he was 42.  Chara won his first Norris at 31 and has been highly effective Dman after that for another six years.  Basically, some of the best Dmen in recent NHL arrive at their own around 31 and they can last until their late 30s. 

 

Giordano is 31 this year and he could be a highly effective Dman until he's 38 based on sound hockey sense, dedication to physical conditioning, hunger to improve every year, etc.  This season is not a one-off either.  He's demonstrated all this throughout his career. 

 

Lastly, his salary is based on a $73-mil cap while others signed their deals when the cap was much lower.  It's just inflation at work and the cap will continue to inflate over time.  By the time Gio is into the 5th or 6th year of his 7-year deal, there will be probably 20-to-30-Dmen in the NHL who will make more than $7.25-mil-per.

[s4xon]

There are a LOT of the team coming up on contracts this summer that need to be resigned, I'd focus on those first since Russell has another year on his contract. A little less urgent, but he DEFINITELY needs to be extended.

 

This summer we're looking at new contracts for Backlund, Jooris, Bouma for sure, likely Wolf and Byron, possibly Ramo and Diaz (though I think Diaz likely won't be signed)

 

All are manageable, but I expect the first three get bumps in pay.

 

Then next year: Giordano, Russell, Monahan, Hudler, Colborne, Jones and  maybe Hiller. < THIS is going to be an expensive year of new contracts, but other than Hiller and Jones, none of those guys should be going anywhere. Good think we've kept our cap low.

 

The cap being kept at a minimum was all for good intention and reason.  I'm sure we'll see some bump in pay, but we'll also expect to see a few players being shipped in and out too.  It's all positioning for the benefit of the rebuild, and for the best development of our young players/prospects.

[FlamesLogic]

Niklas Lidstrom won his first Norris when he was 31-years-old.  Then, he went on to win 6 more Norris Trophies after that and played until he was 42.  Chara won his first Norris at 31 and has been highly effective Dman after that for another six years.  Basically, some of the best Dmen in recent NHL arrive at their own around 31 and they can last until their late 30s. 

 

Giordano is 31 this year and he could be a highly effective Dman until he's 38 based on sound hockey sense, dedication to physical conditioning, hunger to improve every year, etc.  This season is not a one-off either.  He's demonstrated all this throughout his career. 

 

Lastly, his salary is based on a $73-mil cap while others signed their deals when the cap was much lower.  It's just inflation at work and the cap will continue to inflate over time.  By the time Gio is into the 5th or 6th year of his 7-year deal, there will be probably 20-to-30-Dmen in the NHL who will make more than $7.25-mil-per.

Gio also hasnt played more than 64 games in a season since 2010. Lidstrom never missed more than a handful of games each year. Same with Chara until this year when he turns 38.

 

Gio is a top 10 dman these last 2 years not necessarily because of his talent but because of his effort and heart. Because of that he has shown that he will lose significant time to injury. The more injuries that pile up the sooner your body winds down and the slower it bounces back. Its a fact of all athletes, look at Jake Locker in the NFL. Retiring after 4 years at age 26.

 

When Gio is in the 5/6/7 year of his deal he wont be a #1 dman.

 

Im ok with paying Gio until he is 38. Im not ok paying him as a top 10 dman until he is 38. If he wants a 7 year deal I do it at Wideman money.

I know this is the internet but its ok to just admit you are wrong.

[420since1974]

"I think Gio has been playing like a top 10 dman the last two years and if he shows the same next year by all means pay him like a top 10 guy. Just dont do it for 7 more years when he is 38 and his game has slowed down and everyone starts to regard his contract as an anchor.

 

Average cap hit for a top 10 dman = 6.9785

Player Cap Number Final Year Term Age weber 7.857 2027 14 41 suter 7.538 2026 13 40 letang 7.25 2023 8 35 campbell 7.14 2017 8 37 doughty 7 2020 8 30 dion 7 2022 7 36 chara 6.917 2019 7 41 pieterangelo 6.5 2021 7 30 karlsson 6.5 2020 7 29 green 6.083 2016 3 30 AVG 6.9785 2021.1 8.2 34.9

 

Dion, Campbell, Letang are 3 contracts Im sure those teams would like to have back. Im sure even Boston would like to shed Chara and his contract right now.

Weber and Suter at least have the benefit of time so that in 8 years when they are slowing down their respective cap hit compared to the overall cap should be smaller in comparison to what their body can produce.

 

Gio at 4 yrs for 6 mil would be team friendly

Gio at 4 years for 7 mil would be pretty fair

Gio at 4 years for 8 mil would be player friendly

 

Thats the starting points imo. Cap likely wont change much next couple years due to CDN dollar adjusting for any rise in overall revenue.

 

If he wants more term or overall dollars then we can add retirement years to lower cap hit for the term of the contract.

 

What we shouldnt do is pay him as a top 10 dman for the next 7 years because he wont be a top 10 dman for the next 7 years.

 

In 4 years if he is still producing like that by all means give him another good contract but dont give term AND dollars and bet on Gio being that generational player like Lidstrom/Bourque that produces well into his late 30's."

Flameslogic

 

 

 

I'd be tempted to add an extra year term to all 3 of your Giordano scenarios but pretty much agree with your whole post.

 

Next season, extending Russell's contract (with a raise) would be another of my priorities.

 

Potter & Diaz will both be UFAs, they each made $700k this season, do the Flames resign one or both of them?

 

Acolatse, Cundari, & Ramage will all be RFAs, who require qualifying offers of $770k, $725k, & $760k respectively. Does Calgary keep any/all of them?

[The_People1]

Im ok with paying Gio until he is 38. Im not ok paying him as a top 10 dman until he is 38. If he wants a 7 year deal I do it at Wideman money.

 

In 5,6, and 7 years, $7.25-mil will be the new "Wideman money".

 

Furthermore, PK Subban won the Norris and is now making $9-mil-per.  If we let a Norris-level D-man hit UFA two summers from now on a further inflated salary cap limit, do you think he's going to get less than $9-mil-per?  Your numbers are way off market value.