Goaltending

[jjgallow]

18 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

Undrafted, as in a FA this year?  Or available to the 2018 draft?

If he goes into the draft, we would have to use our first pick in the 3rd or 4th.  Think he would still be there?

 

Wondering how much you watch this guy.  Great in the WJC.  2 games in USHL.

The reason I ask is one name that comes to mind...Justin Pogge.

Not being insulting, just don't know if he's worth spending a pick or contract on.

 

I'm not great with contracts, but I believe Flyerfan52 had the correct answer:  His situation would be best suited to a PTO.  I don't believe he'll be draft elligible.

 

Ah...so that age-old question...can we afford to take the risk of spending nothing?     (literally nothing, in the case of a PTO, with the potential for a minor league roster spot)

 

So when you go for a player like this, you might have a 10-15% chance of getting NHL quality out of it.   With Justin Pogge falling in that other 85%.

 

But, you cost is (next to) nothing.   And the ceiling is almost unlimited.  

 

so if you take a very low cost chance, you have 10-15% odds of success.  While if you don't, you have 0% chance (and will pay dearly through picks, players, and salary to cover the goalie position).

 

The idea is, if the net is a weakness, taking this 10-15% chance once or twice a year will add up to some pretty reasonable odds (over 50%, at little or no cost) over a 4-5 year period.   It means you have to let some failures go, and make tough decisions.   But the reward can be a difference maker.

 

Look at this list.  You will see a lot of Justin Pogges.   But you will also see many who were just Never given a chance, and you will also see a lot of NHL difference makers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_IIHF_World_Under_20_Championship_Directorate_award_winners

 

 

[travel_dude]

2 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

I'm not great with contracts, but I believe Flyerfan52 had the correct answer:  His situation would be best suited to a PTO.  I don't believe he'll be draft elligible.

 

Ah...so that age-old question...can we afford to take the risk of spending nothing?     (literally nothing, in the case of a PTO, with the potential for a minor league roster spot)

 

My risk/reward was more centered around the use of a draft pick.  Rittich is proof that you can find gems elsewhere in the world and all it costs is a pick.  I would give up MacDonald's contract for a goalie with a reasonable chance of becomming a decent goalie.

 

Since we are not the only team looking overseas, I would assume it would have to be an ELC to get him here.  A PTO likely wouldn't do it.  As I said earlier, I would like to hear a bit about his scouting reports first, though.  Just looking at the WJC by itself isn't quite enough. 

[JTech780]

I am pretty sure Durny is draft eligible. His stats outside of the WJC are not good. I don't see the point, especially when we are already running out of nets for the goalies we already have.

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

 

My risk/reward was more centered around the use of a draft pick.  Rittich is proof that you can find gems elsewhere in the world and all it costs is a pick.  I would give up MacDonald's contract for a goalie with a reasonable chance of becomming a decent goalie.

 

Since we are not the only team looking overseas, I would assume it would have to be an ELC to get him here.  A PTO likely wouldn't do it.  As I said earlier, I would like to hear a bit about his scouting reports first, though.  Just looking at the WJC by itself isn't quite enough. 

 

So ....I stand corrected, yes, he is NHL draft elligible.    That doesn't mean he'll get drafted, though.    He would be an over-ager, so the PTO could still apply.   If somobody offers him an ELC out of the blue, great, but I have doubts about this.  For all the same reasons you have concerns with the Flames doing it.

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, JTech780 said:

I am pretty sure Durny is draft eligible. His stats outside of the WJC are not good. I don't see the point, especially when we are already running out of nets for the goalies we already have.

 

You're right....I looked into it, he is elligible.

 

With regards to his stats,....his stats are at least good if not great.   He is playing in a men's league against ex NHLers, except his particular team has all 18 year old defencemen.     The caliber he faces is somewhat between the AHL and NHL.   And his team is the "under 20" team which gets pounded by the rest of the league.

 

Put it this way: Tyler Parsons, our one shining hope, is almost a year older and, in the ECHL, which is easily One or Two calibers below.   And his team has decent defence.   And their save percentages are basically the same.

[travel_dude]

4 hours ago, jjgallow said:

Put it this way: Tyler Parsons, our one shining hope, is almost a year older and, in the ECHL, which is easily One or Two calibers below.   And his team has decent defence.   And their save percentages are basically the same.

 

Parson is in the AHL.

 

I would say he isn;t our only hope.  Gillies is becoming more consistent.  Rittich is turning heads.   

[jjgallow]

3 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

Parson is in the AHL.

 

I would say he isn;t our only hope.  Gillies is becoming more consistent.  Rittich is turning heads.   

 

It was an exaggeration

 

Perhaps a tad early to call Parsons an AHLer, based on that ...one...game....maybe we can revisit this in a couple weeks

 

Gillies needs to show another gear soon but of course, there is some hope there, yes.  Just as not as much as we had originally "hoped" for

 

Fair enough on Riitich.   But even if he turns out to be the next Kipper we will still need prospects coming up.  In basically all scenarios we will need this.

[DirtyDeeds]

19 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

It was an exaggeration

 

Perhaps a tad early to call Parsons an AHLer, based on that ...one...game....maybe we can revisit this in a couple weeks

 

Gillies needs to show another gear soon but of course, there is some hope there, yes.  Just as not as much as we had originally "hoped" for

 

Fair enough on Riitich.   But even if he turns out to be the next Kipper we will still need prospects coming up.  In basically all scenarios we will need this.

I quote from Fan960 today:

 

Gilles is top 10 in every AHL goalie catagory.  Gilles has most recently 2 back to back shutouts.  He also leads the AHl in shutouts...

 

What more do you guys need to know??? I think you can sleep well in knowing Gilles is doing fine lately(this season).

[Thebrewcrew]

37 minutes ago, DirtyDeeds said:

I quote from Fan960 today:

 

Gilles is top 10 in every AHL goalie catagory.  Gilles has most recently 2 back to back shutouts.  He also leads the AHl in shutouts...

 

What more do you guys need to know??? I think you can sleep well in knowing Gilles is doing fine lately(this season).

Most likely scenario in my mind is, Smith plays out his contract then retires. Then in 19/20 we run with a Rittich/Gillies tandem

[jjgallow]

47 minutes ago, DirtyDeeds said:

I quote from Fan960 today:

 

Gilles is top 10 in every AHL goalie catagory.  Gilles has most recently 2 back to back shutouts.  He also leads the AHl in shutouts...

 

What more do you guys need to know??? I think you can sleep well in knowing Gilles is doing fine lately(this season).

 

Maybe I just had higher expectations for him.    I would like to see top 5 by the end of this year.   There was a time when he was extemely, extremely, highly rated.   I would like to see him reclaim that.

 

He is close but not there.     I think he has the ability to be the best goalie in the AHL.  I would settle for top 5.   

 

I'm certainly nowhere close to counting him out, I just think he can do more and needs to do more.

[kehatch]

21 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

It was an exaggeration

 

Perhaps a tad early to call Parsons an AHLer, based on that ...one...game....maybe we can revisit this in a couple weeks

 

Gillies needs to show another gear soon but of course, there is some hope there, yes.  Just as not as much as we had originally "hoped" for

 

Fair enough on Riitich.   But even if he turns out to be the next Kipper we will still need prospects coming up.  In basically all scenarios we will need this.

 

We will give Parsons a couple of weeks before calling him an AHLer (instead of one game)? How generous of us

 

The Flames are getting top end goal tending in the NHL right now from both goalies, one of which is 25. Gilles has turned a corner and Parsons is still a top prospect. 

 

Bottom line with goalies is: 1) You measure their progress over years not weeks, and 2) Chances are your best starter is coming from somewhere you didn't expect. Sure there are exceptions to the rules, but they ARE exceptions. 

 

Given Smiths age we definitely need to find a long term option. I also agree adding a prospect or two won't hurt. But I like the goalies from top to bottom and I definitely think it is WAY to early to be coming to conclusions on Rittich, Parsons, or Gilles. 

 

 

 

 

[Cowtownguy]

20 hours ago, kehatch said:

 

We will give Parsons a couple of weeks before calling him an AHLer (instead of one game)? How generous of us

 

The Flames are getting top end goal tending in the NHL right now from both goalies, one of which is 25. Gilles has turned a corner and Parsons is still a top prospect. 

 

Bottom line with goalies is: 1) You measure their progress over years not weeks, and 2) Chances are your best starter is coming from somewhere you didn't expect. Sure there are exceptions to the rules, but they ARE exceptions. 

 

Given Smiths age we definitely need to find a long term option. I also agree adding a prospect or two won't hurt. But I like the goalies from top to bottom and I definitely think it is WAY to early to be coming to conclusions on Rittich, Parsons, or Gilles. 

 

 

 

 

I completely agree with what you wrote. Having said that, I really like what I see. A weak start makes it difficult to have high hopes.

[cccsberg]

On 2018-01-18 at 7:54 PM, jjgallow said:

 

Maybe I just had higher expectations for him.    I would like to see top 5 by the end of this year.   There was a time when he was extemely, extremely, highly rated.   I would like to see him reclaim that.

 

He is close but not there.     I think he has the ability to be the best goalie in the AHL.  I would settle for top 5.   

 

I'm certainly nowhere close to counting him out, I just think he can do more and needs to do more.

As many have said before, goalies are interesting animals.  Just look at Matt Murray with Pittsburg.  A couple great seasons in the AHL and playoffs with Vezina winner Fleury and a powerhouse team beside him, now he’s stinking out the joint once Fluery is gone and he is carrying all the pressure.  You could say the same about Edmonton’s keeper.  I think Gillies is doing just fine, getting better each year.

[Carty]

15 hours ago, cccsberg said:

As many have said before, goalies are interesting animals.  Just look at Matt Murray with Pittsburg.  A couple great seasons in the AHL and playoffs with Vezina winner Fleury and a powerhouse team beside him, now he’s stinking out the joint once Fluery is gone and he is carrying all the pressure.

 

.930 SV% over 13 games when Murray started out with the Pens 2 seasons ago...   .923 SV% over 49 games last season...   and so far in 31 games this season his SV% has dropped to .903...   Last I looked Fleury was leading the league with a .945 SV%...

[DirtyDeeds]

15 hours ago, cccsberg said:

As many have said before, goalies are interesting animals.  Just look at Matt Murray with Pittsburg.  A couple great seasons in the AHL and playoffs with Vezina winner Fleury and a powerhouse team beside him, now he’s stinking out the joint once Fluery is gone and he is carrying all the pressure.  You could say the same about Edmonton’s keeper.  I think Gillies is doing just fine, getting better each year.

I think in the Oilers situation that it has a lot to do with the quality of the defense and the system that team plays. I don't think that  Talbot has had any extra pressure on him this year, than he had last year with new building opening.

 

As for Gilles he pretty much missed a year(4-6 months) with his hip injury. Most of the complaints about him I have seen around here don't account for the year of development he missed due to his hip operation and recovery.

[jjgallow]

On 1/20/2018 at 5:39 PM, cccsberg said:

As many have said before, goalies are interesting animals.  Just look at Matt Murray with Pittsburg.  A couple great seasons in the AHL and playoffs with Vezina winner Fleury and a powerhouse team beside him, now he’s stinking out the joint once Fluery is gone and he is carrying all the pressure.  You could say the same about Edmonton’s keeper.  I think Gillies is doing just fine, getting better each year.

 

Fair, I would suggest that maybe we are all interesting animals and NHL goalies just tend to stand out a bit more.

 

Murray's having an off year, I don't know the details regarding his father and whether that does or doesn't factor into it, but most humans and most NHL forwards and defencemen also have off-years or months.   When you're the last thing preventing a goal against, people notice more.

 

I'm certainly not counting Gillies out, I just have high expectations for him.    Generally, I have to admit that at this moment in time, things are looking much better in net for the Flames.   All I will say is it is just that...a moment in time.   

 

Now even if things look this rosy, or even more rosy, by the end of season (which is far from a sure thing, to say the least), we will still need prospects and we will still need a pipeline and we won't be able to rely on any one single player to save us.    So while my proposal of low risk prospects is very poorly timed, it is far to early to consider it invalid.

[travel_dude]

JJ, there is no right time to talk about looking for prospects.  BT and the crew look at them all year long.  Rittich was a surprise to us, but obviously wasn't a spur of the moment thing.  Heavily scouted.  Nothing wrong with scouting new ones.  The only issue is that we still have 2 goalies that aren;t in the AHL that the team made a commitment to.  They are watching all of them to see if they are worth investing in.  Hard to say if they will keep Schneider and MacDonald, but they could turn around their games.

 

To a certain extent, I think we watch a goalie and project ro be a NHL goalie, but the style he plays may not get him there.  Hopefully the Flames are using more than just our current goalie coach when looking at FA's and upcoming drafties.  

[jjgallow]

4 hours ago, travel_dude said:

JJ, there is no right time to talk about looking for prospects.  ......... The only issue is that we still have 2 goalies

 

You mean there is no wrong time? 

 

I don't see that as an issue.    If Gillies is what we hope he is, he'll be in the NHL next year IMHO.     And if he's not, that's another conversation.

 

What to do with Gillies and Riitch both in the NHL?   We cross that road when we get there.   But the future glut won't be in the AHL.  Or at least it shouldn't be.  We are, after all, talking about next season (not this one).

 

Parsons needs to prove he's ready for the AHL, on the other hand.   Another road we'll cross when we get there (and haven't gotten there yet).

 

No matter how you do the math we still need prospects.   Without a doubt, Rittich could change the picture if he keeps doing what he's doing.    But IMHO that picture only varies from :  Needing prospects, to...Desperately needing them.

 

We will see soon enough.   In the meantime I think we should still be allowed to discuss prospects, with full creds to Rittich's recent play

[Thebrewcrew]

Another Smith start tonight, 1st half of a b2b, I can understand the decision, but if he starts tomorrow night I will be a little concerned.]

 

Full credit to Smith, he's been amazing this season, but I fear we may be overworking him. Age and injury history is also a factor, if he were to go down, we could be in trouble.

 

EDM played the wheels off Talbot last season and look how he has done this year, and Talbot is younger with less gp than Smith..

 

And... Smith is heading to the all star game so he gets no real break...

[JTech780]

 

I love it and hate it when Flames head to the All-Star game, but mostly hate it. It's nice to see the players rewarded for their efforts. As Flames fan first, I want my team to get the rest.

[travel_dude]

6 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

 

I love it and hate it when Flames head to the All-Star game, but mostly hate it. It's nice to see the players rewarded for their efforts. As Flames fan first, I want my team to get the rest.

 

I think this actually helps a goalie.  He stay in practice.  It's not going to be a rough game, just a lot of shots.  He will play one 15 minute period.

 

Johnny probably could use the rest, but I think I prefer that he works on his game in a no-hit environment.  

[Khrox]

Smith going in place of Quick. Unless Quick is injured, him passing on ASG means he is suspended 1 regular season game. Which means it'll either be tonight he misses (hopefully) or Tuesday (vs. Dallas, their next game).

[Cowtownguy]

3 hours ago, JTech780 said:

 

I love it and hate it when Flames head to the All-Star game, but mostly hate it. It's nice to see the players rewarded for their efforts. As Flames fan first, I want my team to get the rest.

I am not a fan of the All-Star game. Very little effort goes into the games, and I am not sure if playing a half-hearted game is constructive for players. Many players seem to try their best to avoid going when selected. I would like to see the NHL come up with an alternative. If people want to watch a weak effort, I can always turn on my recorder at work on Fridays. 

[MAC331]

2 minutes ago, Cowtownguy said:

I am not a fan of the All-Star game. Very little effort goes into the games, and I am not sure if playing a half-hearted game is constructive for players. Many players seem to try their best to avoid going when selected. I would like to see the NHL come up with an alternative. If people want to watch a weak effort, I can always turn on my recorder at work on Fridays. 

Hey the recognition is good for Smitty, he is putting in one heck of a season.

[Cowtownguy]

4 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

Hey the recognition is good for Smitty, he is putting in one heck of a season.

With his confidence, do you think that being the plan B guy gives him much recognition? I would rather he have time off to rest given how hard we ride him.