Goaltending

[cross16]

That looks like Ramo yup.

 

he is trending up and its been positive but 15 games also is a small sample size to say he has arrived and is a number 1 goalie. I'll take his whole Flames career whre he has proven to b a good, but not great, goalie.

 

But if the point is Ramo is trending up and we should back off acquiring a goalie I agree. Flames should only be looking to acquire a top end goalie, not just any goalie. 

[kehatch]

The chart below captures a 5 game moving Save Percentage for one particular NHL goalie that is definitely available via trade. Each point on the chart represents the average of his last 5 games played. The chart only captures his last 15 games played this year.

First question is;

Would you be interested in acquiring this goalie? Yes or No.

If yes, what would you offer in trade to acquire the goalie?

You could put a small snapshot of Raymond's offensive production and make him look like an offensive dynamo. That's a couple of games with zero context. Can't make a decision using that.

[DirtyDeeds]

The chart below captures a 5 game moving Save Percentage for one particular NHL goalie that is definitely available via trade.  Each point on the chart represents the average of his last 5 games played.  The chart only captures his last 15 games played this year. 

 

First question is;

Would you be interested in acquiring this goalie?  Yes or No.  

If yes, what would you offer in trade to acquire the goalie?

 

or

 

Instead of showing trends you could just draw a line where you think a good #1 goaltenders level of play should be.

 

[jjgallow]

omg.   I never thought I'd say "too much stats"....but...

[DirtyDeeds]

omg.   I never thought I'd say "too much stats"....but...

Now JJ, this topic is very dear to your heart... Let's pay proper attention.

[CheersMan]

or

 

Instead of showing trends you could just draw a line where you think a good #1 goaltenders level of play should be.

 

Good suggestion Deed's, I'll include that line on any future postings.

 

omg.   I never thought I'd say "too much stats"....but...

 

I'll go slow so even you can follow.

[jjgallow]

 

I'll go slow so even you can follow.

 

I apologize if my comment offended you.  Look, I'm a huge believer in stats.  Or any other measurement/evaluation based on true/untrue facts.

 

It's just that 15 games is an entirely meaningless sample size to do trending on goaltending prospects.  It can take them one or two years just to improve their average percentage by .1.     Then you've got to filter out all the other variables over that extremely long period of time, such as different players and often different teams.

 

Anyway, carry on....I don't like to make a habit out of dissing stats.

[DirtyDeeds]

I apologize if my comment offended you.  Look, I'm a huge believer in stats.  Or any other measurement/evaluation based on true/untrue facts.

 

It's just that 15 games is an entirely meaningless sample size to do trending on goaltending prospects.  It can take them one or two years just to improve their average percentage by .1.     Then you've got to filter out all the other variables over that extremely long period of time, such as different players and often different teams.

 

Anyway, carry on....I don't like to make a habit out of dissing stats.

or

 

Different leagues which is an almost common thing these days. College, WHL, AHL and NHL and that not even considering overseas leagues.

[CheersMan]

Yes, the chart represents Ramo.  I presented it because of his steadily improved play.  Rather than plot his SA% for every game played, which would show the extreme highs and lows, I’ve done a 5 game moving average SA% instead.  The chart has been extended to include his entire season.  The entire team started the season slow.  I’m not saying Ramo is our future, just giving him a little support at a time when most are criticizing the position.

 

[MAC331]

Yes, the chart represents Ramo.  I presented it because of his steadily improved play.  Rather than plot his SA% for every game played, which would show the extreme highs and lows, I’ve done a 5 game moving average SA% instead.  The chart has been extended to include his entire season.  The entire team started the season slow.  I’m not saying Ramo is our future, just giving him a little support at a time when most are criticizing the position.

 

I see management doing what they need to with Ramo and that is what can he do if handling the majority of games in a season. They already know Hiller is gone somewhere between now and the end of the year. Can Ramo become a #1 or do they go hard in the offseason with someone else ?

[kehatch]

Ramo has been better and deserves credit. The question is whether he is starter material or not. He is paid as a starter and likely will be next season (in the NHL or KHL).

I don't think he is a starter and I don't think we have the cap luxury to pay him 4 million as a 1B. So I think Treliving needs to be actively looking at other options as we don't have any NHL ready goalies signed for next season and I don't see Ramo as a legitimate option.

I think if you let this thing go until June Treliving ends up signing Ramo due to a lack of options. And that could be scary, especially if there is term.

[MAC331]

Ramo has been better and deserves credit. The question is whether he is starter material or not. He is paid as a starter and likely will be next season (in the NHL or KHL).

I don't think he is a starter and I don't think we have the cap luxury to pay him 4 million as a 1B. So I think Treliving needs to be actively looking at other options as we don't have any NHL ready goalies signed for next season and I don't see Ramo as a legitimate option.

I think if you let this thing go until June Treliving ends up signing Ramo due to a lack of options. And that could be scary, especially if there is term.

I agree BT needs to be looking for someone better but looking and signing are two different things. Should Ramo not show capable of being a #1 with the workload this year then sure rule him out and don't resign as a 1B at all.

[cross16]

I agree you want to keep looking but I disagree that Ramo is not an option. Let the year play out because if he keeps this up I think he is an option mainly because I don't think he'll get term. The advantage for the Flames is a lot of teams have options in net and there are always options that pop up every year that even if Ramo plays well this year he likely won't be a very attractive option come FA. I think if he continues at this pay you could probably get him around 4 mill on a 2 year deal and I would do that in a heartbeat if he keeps this up.

 

So let it play out and see what happens but I think Ramo is most certainly an option to consider. Is he a starter that you can hand 60 game a year? probably not. but I think he can be a starter for around 50 games with a decent backup.

[MAC331]

I agree you want to keep looking but I disagree that Ramo is not an option. Let the year play out because if he keeps this up I think he is an option mainly because I don't think he'll get term. The advantage for the Flames is a lot of teams have options in net and there are always options that pop up every year that even if Ramo plays well this year he likely won't be a very attractive option come FA. I think if he continues at this pay you could probably get him around 4 mill on a 2 year deal and I would do that in a heartbeat if he keeps this up.

 

So let it play out and see what happens but I think Ramo is most certainly an option to consider. Is he a starter that you can hand 60 game a year? probably not. but I think he can be a starter for around 50 games with a decent backup.

I like what they are doing with Ramo, this is definitely a push year to really see what he is capable of.

[travel_dude]

I like what they are doing with Ramo, this is definitely a push year to really see what he is capable of.

 

Right now, he is the only safe option.  I can't see them starting Hiller against Anaheim.  He was ok last night, but didn't inspire confidence with the breakaway goal.  Those are the ones you need to make the first save.

 

Ortio is starting to look like a bust this year.  It would be nice to get Bishop, but we would still need a decent backup.

[MAC331]

Right now, he is the only safe option.  I can't see them starting Hiller against Anaheim.  He was ok last night, but didn't inspire confidence with the breakaway goal.  Those are the ones you need to make the first save.

 

Ortio is starting to look like a bust this year.  It would be nice to get Bishop, but we would still need a decent backup.

Questions: How far off are Gilles and MacDonald realistically ? are either of these #1 material ? could we or should we be considering Ramo for at least 1 more year ?

[cross16]

Right now, he is the only safe option.  I can't see them starting Hiller against Anaheim.  He was ok last night, but didn't inspire confidence with the breakaway goal.  Those are the ones you need to make the first save.

 

Ortio is starting to look like a bust this year.  It would be nice to get Bishop, but we would still need a decent backup.

 

I don't watch a lot of the heat but by all reports he's been terrible down there. His stat line would backup that up too, but honestly at this rate I don't even think I would bring back Ortio on a qualifying offer. Goalies are voodoo, but I suspect you'll probably see Ortio back in Europe to play out his career. I don't think he is likely to be an NHL goaltender.

And before people jump on the "Flames ruined him" train remember a few things. He was average at last years training camp, he was average after his first few games in the NHL, and he was really not that much better than average during the preseason this year. I don't love how the Flames handled Ortio, but I also think he has really plateaued at the NHL level and failed to break through which is more on him than the Flames.

Questions: How far off are Gilles and MacDonald realistically ? are either of these #1 material ? could we or should we be considering Ramo for at least 1 more year ?

 

I think both have number 1 upside but they are years away. Best case scenario Gilles makes a play for the job in 2 more seasons (after this one) where MacDonald is probably a good 4 years away best case. I like Gilles better than MacDonald personally but while the updie is there I don't think the Flames can bank on either in the next few years. They need a stop gap for at least a few years and that's also why I think Ramo could be a legit option for them. I don't think he has done enough to warrant term so you could get him on a more flexable deal.

[MAC331]

I don't watch a lot of the heat but by all reports he's been terrible down there. His stat line would backup that up too, but honestly at this rate I don't even think I would bring back Ortio on a qualifying offer. Goalies are voodoo, but I suspect you'll probably see Ortio back in Europe to play out his career. I don't think he is likely to be an NHL goaltender.

And before people jump on the "Flames ruined him" train remember a few things. He was average at last years training camp, he was average after his first few games in the NHL, and he was really not that much better than average during the preseason this year. I don't love how the Flames handled Ortio, but I also think he has really plateaued at the NHL level and failed to break through which is more on him than the Flames.

 

I think both have number 1 upside but they are years away. Best case scenario Gilles makes a play for the job in 2 more seasons (after this one) where MacDonald is probably a good 4 years away best case. I like Gilles better than MacDonald personally but while the updie is there I don't think the Flames can bank on either in the next few years. They need a stop gap for at least a few years and that's also why I think Ramo could be a legit option for them. I don't think he has done enough to warrant term so you could get him on a more flexable deal.

THX cross

[travel_dude]

I don't watch a lot of the heat but by all reports he's been terrible down there. His stat line would backup that up too, but honestly at this rate I don't even think I would bring back Ortio on a qualifying offer. Goalies are voodoo, but I suspect you'll probably see Ortio back in Europe to play out his career. I don't think he is likely to be an NHL goaltender.

And before people jump on the "Flames ruined him" train remember a few things. He was average at last years training camp, he was average after his first few games in the NHL, and he was really not that much better than average during the preseason this year. I don't love how the Flames handled Ortio, but I also think he has really plateaued at the NHL level and failed to break through which is more on him than the Flames.

 

I think both have number 1 upside but they are years away. Best case scenario Gilles makes a play for the job in 2 more seasons (after this one) where MacDonald is probably a good 4 years away best case. I like Gilles better than MacDonald personally but while the updie is there I don't think the Flames can bank on either in the next few years. They need a stop gap for at least a few years and that's also why I think Ramo could be a legit option for them. I don't think he has done enough to warrant term so you could get him on a more flexable deal.

 

I just generally read the reviews post game, and it sounds bad.  I doubt he makes it back to the NHL this year; Poulin is more likely.

 

Gillies is a weird case.  Had he been healthy, he might have been in the plans for 2016/17, but he is now another year out.  Demko is a lot better after the surgery, and next season should be a good one.  The earliest you will see Gillies is 2017/18, baring some injury to our starter next season.  

 

I say this because some goalies round out into NHL form rather quickly.  Gillies has potential to be a backup after a full season in the AHL.  IMHO.  

[kehatch]

Ramo might be a decent plan D if he does okay this season. This guy might be playing decent hockey now, but he isn't that far removed from clearing waivers. I have zero faith in his consistency to make a 4+ million dollar commitment that will prevent us from investing in a better alternative.

[robrob1974]

I feel Ramo is over paid. He deserves 2-2.5/year. He is not elite. Maybe they add performance bonuses? An extra Mil if he reaches them? 4 is way too much for an average goalie.

[MAC331]

I feel Ramo is over paid. He deserves 2-2.5/year. He is not elite. Maybe they add performance bonuses? An extra Mil if he reaches them? 4 is way too much for an average goalie.

I think you make a valid point. I looked at STL and both their goalies make around 2.5M.

[robrob1974]

I think you make a valid point. I looked at STL and both their goalies make around 2.5M.

If we were going to re-sign Ramo this past summer, I was expecting it to be around 2.5. It is why I worry about Treliving's contracts. A lot are over priced by about a million.

[cross16]

I think you make a valid point. I looked at STL and both their goalies make around 2.5M.

 

Not very good comparisons. Jake Allen is in his 3rd season in the league and when he signed that deal had never even started 40 games. Brian Elliot has also never been a starter except for the early 2010s and he was below avg at it when he was. If Ramo keeps this up he'll have at least 1 year of starting calibre goaltending and 3 years of NHL experience and that is likely going to get you more than 2.5 million.

Comparison for Ramo I think would be:

Ondrej Pavelec - 3.9 million

Anti Niemi - 4.5 million (pretty close to Ramo)

Steve Mason - 4.1 mill

Even Martin Jones who has never been a starter for 3mill per. \

 

If Ramo continues to play like he has for the last month he is going to cost the Flames probably 4 mill at least.

[travel_dude]

If we were going to re-sign Ramo this past summer, I was expecting it to be around 2.5. It is why I worry about Treliving's contracts. A lot are over priced by about a million.

 

Apart from FA signings like Engelland and Raymond, which got inflated for a couple of reasons, BT is signing players for market price or below.  You are not getting a player like Gio for $5m or a player like Hamilton for $4m.  Bouma was going to arbitration, so he overpaid a bit, not much.  Backlund is making less than Sutter, and is better overall.

 

Ramo made $2.9m last year actual.  Why would you expect to get him cheaper when he took the team to the 2nd round.  Not all his doing, but he earned a raise.  We can bellyache all we want about the size of the payroll, but there is baggage that is creating the cap issues, not BT.  The top players are earning their new contracts.  The previous ones that are playing reduced roles are here because they provide a niche or we can't get rid of them.