Goaltending

[kehatch]

Backstrom--- Hiller ---Bobrovsky-- Fasth----Niemi--Raanta-- Gustavsson-- all undrafted

I mean he may or may not pan out , bottom line is its more productive bring these guys in to get a look see in your organization , than signing an obvious space filler like Poulin.. this kid may be Pribyls cousin and a condition of his own signing for all we know..but likely got seen while scouting Pribyl and made an impression .

Its not like we're signing 2 of them and asking them to be our starters next year

I have no problema with the signing. There is almost no downside. I am just pointing out that these usually don't result in a quality NHL asset.

[robrob1974]

Kipper wasn't signed from an obscure league. He was already an NHL goalie. I can't think of the last signing lime this thst amounted to a high end goalie.

I forget who we played this last season, but the backup was a college free agent. He played in beer league and a college scout or coach saw him play. The kid wasn't even going to go to college and they got him to play net. I forget the college, the player and the team. Maybe Nashville? Cool story though.

[cross16]

So... Reimer at $4.75 for 5 years?

I sure hope not. That's a terrible deal IMO. Way too mich for a guy who is not a proven starter.

[kehatch]

Pet Sportsnet, Gilles will not need to be protected in the expansion draft (interpreting the rules). Meanwhile Fleury is mandatory to protect (specifically stated). You can only protect one goalie.

Which means the Penguins absolutely have to trade Fleury. It also means that very few teams will trade for him since he can't be exposed. Waiting is a huge risk since they could run into a situation where injury or poor play prevents moving him,especially if he is now backing up Murray.

Finally, the Penguins aren't the only ones with extra goalies. TSN speculated the goalie market will be "flooded" if the expansion draft happens. Which sounds almost certain of Vegas.

Add all of that together and Fleury should be available cheap. His timeline works well for bringing in Gilles. He is a very good goalie who should remain good for the duration of his contract. The cap hit is manageable.

Fleury makes a lot of sense as a target for the Flames. My guess is at or just prior to the draft. The cost is probably a couple of second round picks (not 35) and a low level prospect.

The only way this won't make sense is if the Flames expect another expansion draft the following year. A year when Gilles may require protection and Fleury will still take up the spot.

[MAC331]

So... Reimer at $4.75 for 5 years?

3.5M as high as I go.

[kehatch]

3.5M as high as I go.

2 years is as high as I go. Term is a bigger deal then cap for Reimer imo.

[phoenix66]

2 years is as high as I go. Term is a bigger deal then cap for Reimer imo.

I believe in terms of Reimer, he has more to gain on a short cap friendly deal..2 yrs, 3.5 is realistic if he goes where he can be the consensus #1. Right now theres 2, maybe 3 teams who could offer him that, the Flames being one.

Hed be playing for his next contract. To erase all the roadblocks to his payday now.

The win for the team is that I think he'll take the opportunity and run with it

[travel_dude]

Pet Sportsnet, Gilles will not need to be protected in the expansion draft (interpreting the rules). Meanwhile Fleury is mandatory to protect (specifically stated). You can only protect one goalie.

Which means the Penguins absolutely have to trade Fleury. It also means that very few teams will trade for him since he can't be exposed. Waiting is a huge risk since they could run into a situation where injury or poor play prevents moving him,especially if he is now backing up Murray.

Finally, the Penguins aren't the only ones with extra goalies. TSN speculated the goalie market will be "flooded" if the expansion draft happens. Which sounds almost certain of Vegas.

Add all of that together and Fleury should be available cheap. His timeline works well for bringing in Gilles. He is a very good goalie who should remain good for the duration of his contract. The cap hit is manageable.

Fleury makes a lot of sense as a target for the Flames. My guess is at or just prior to the draft. The cost is probably a couple of second round picks (not 35) and a low level prospect.

The only way this won't make sense is if the Flames expect another expansion draft the following year. A year when Gilles may require protection and Fleury will still take up the spot.

 

The Penguins are in a very precarious situation with MAF.  He controls the list of trade options.  If expansion is announced, then he could block a trade to a team needing a goalie.  The possible way out would be to buy out the contract next summer.  4 years of $2m in dead cap space, but you keep the goalie you want to protect.

 

If they traded him to the Flames, is it an option not to carry over the NMC?  I have heard differing opinions on that.  If that was the case, then it presents no issues to us protecting Fleury.  If it carries forward, we would have the option to buyout as well, no matter how ugly that is.

 

If we are trading for a goalie, I want to be in the best possible situation come expansion.  I'm not willing to protect a goalie unless he has years ahead of him as a starter.  Andersen, Bishop, Elliott....Otherwise, throw the net out there and sign a FA for a short term, and not worry about losing him.

[MAC331]

2 years is as high as I go. Term is a bigger deal then cap for Reimer imo.

I would concur with the 2 years.

[kehatch]

The Penguins are in a very precarious situation with MAF.  He controls the list of trade options.  If expansion is announced, then he could block a trade to a team needing a goalie.  The possible way out would be to buy out the contract next summer.  4 years of $2m in dead cap space, but you keep the goalie you want to protect.

 

If they traded him to the Flames, is it an option not to carry over the NMC?  I have heard differing opinions on that.  If that was the case, then it presents no issues to us protecting Fleury.  If it carries forward, we would have the option to buyout as well, no matter how ugly that is.

 

If we are trading for a goalie, I want to be in the best possible situation come expansion.  I'm not willing to protect a goalie unless he has years ahead of him as a starter.  Andersen, Bishop, Elliott....Otherwise, throw the net out there and sign a FA for a short term, and not worry about losing him.

 

NHL players want to play. Fleury isn't going to refuse to waive his NMC so he can sit on the bench as the back-up.  I think it is unlikely he refuses to waive his contract.  A buyout is an option, but a really expensive one.  It is also a risky one since an injury will prevent them from being able to buy the player out.  The NMC carries over.  

[MAC331]

The Penguins are in a very precarious situation with MAF.  He controls the list of trade options.  If expansion is announced, then he could block a trade to a team needing a goalie.  The possible way out would be to buy out the contract next summer.  4 years of $2m in dead cap space, but you keep the goalie you want to protect.

 

If they traded him to the Flames, is it an option not to carry over the NMC?  I have heard differing opinions on that.  If that was the case, then it presents no issues to us protecting Fleury.  If it carries forward, we would have the option to buyout as well, no matter how ugly that is.

 

If we are trading for a goalie, I want to be in the best possible situation come expansion.  I'm not willing to protect a goalie unless he has years ahead of him as a starter.  Andersen, Bishop, Elliott....Otherwise, throw the net out there and sign a FA for a short term, and not worry about losing him.

My targets for goalies are Vasilevskiy, Andersen and Allen because I think they are better than Fleury and start with a lesser cost initially. Any one of these options gives us topnotch goaltending. Fleury's BBD has come and gone IMO.

[cross16]

If they traded him to the Flames, is it an option not to carry over the NMC? I have heard differing opinions on that. If that was the case, then it presents no issues to us protecting Fleury. If it carries forward, we would have the option to buyout as well, no matter how ugly that is.

Yes it depends on Fleury. Once you waive a NMC or NTC the acquiring team is no longer bound by it. However, player and agent can negotiate with the acquiring team to have the clause carry over which they almost always do and is usually a condition of them agreeing to the trade in the first place. So short answer, it's possible but unlikely.

I still think fleury gets traded with or without expansion but with expansion j think he is cheap. I'd be surprised if the pens could get a 2nd straight up for fleury. Not going to be many teams that can acquire his salary or his contract for the expansion draft. A goalie in a better age range is ideal but fleury is a great option IMO especially with the cost. Would allow the flames to be competitive right now and allow young goalies to develop.

[travel_dude]

My targets for goalies are Vasilevskiy, Andersen and Allen because I think they are better than Fleury and start with a lesser cost initially. Any one of these options gives us topnotch goaltending. Fleury's BBD has come and gone IMO.

 

I have questions about Vasilevskiy's game.  I liked most of what I saw in the playoffs, but I was looking at his regular season results.  Not exactly impressive.  He played against a lot of non-playoff teams, and had about 9 wins against them.  Not as impressive against playoff teams in the regular season.  That may be due to being rusty, but it's worrysome.

[kehatch]

My targets for goalies are Vasilevskiy, Andersen and Allen because I think they are better than Fleury and start with a lesser cost initially. Any one of these options gives us topnotch goaltending. Fleury's BBD has come and gone IMO.

 

With Bishop a pending free agent after next season Tampa doesn't need to (nor likely will) move Vasilevskiy.  It doesn't sound like Blues have any intent of trading Allen.  Elliot is a free agent after next season so protection won't be an issue.  They can risk taking next season to figure out their situation in goal.  

 

Andersen is an option, and he is definitely one of the guys on my list.  I am really curious if he is a legitimate option for the Flames though.  Burke recently talked about how they were really using analytics for goalies. He was referencing adjusted save percentage and high danger save percentage.  The first metric adjusts save percentage based on the where the shot was taken.  The second is looking at just shots taken from close in areas on the ice.  

 

Here is the season to date (including playoffs).  Data from war on ice. 

 

 

http://war-on-ice.com/goalietable.html?mansit=&homeawaysit=1&scoresit=2&team=&playoffs=All&start1=2015-10-01&end1=2016-06-11

 

Guys like Andersen, Varlamov, Allen, and especially Bobrovsky might not be in consideration if the Flames really are valuing these metrics.  Fleury, Reimer, and Kuemper would be near the top of the list.  If you expand the date range to include prior seasons as well Fleury and Varlamov fair well while the rest fall off.  

 

I think Fleury is a legitimate candidate.  

Yes it depends on Fleury. Once you waive a NMC or NTC the acquiring team is no longer bound by it. However, player and agent can negotiate with the acquiring team to have the clause carry over which they almost always do and is usually a condition of them agreeing to the trade in the first place. So short answer, it's possible but unlikely.

I still think fleury gets traded with or without expansion but with expansion j think he is cheap. I'd be surprised if the pens could get a 2nd straight up for fleury. Not going to be many teams that can acquire his salary or his contract for the expansion draft. A goalie in a better age range is ideal but fleury is a great option IMO especially with the cost. Would allow the flames to be competitive right now and allow young goalies to develop.

 

I am not sure that is accurate with the new CBA.  Pretty sure the NMC carries over now.  As for the price tag, I think they get a bit more then that.  There aren't that many teams that absolutely have to protect their goalie next season that wouldn't put an offer for Fleury at a bargain price.  He is a high end goalie on a decent enough contract.  I do agree that the price will go way down if there is expansion though.  

[cross16]

I am not sure that is accurate with the new CBA. Pretty sure the NMC carries over now. As for the price tag, I think they get a bit more then that. There aren't that many teams that absolutely have to protect their goalie next season that wouldn't put an offer for Fleury at a bargain price. He is a high end goalie on a decent enough contract. I do agree that the price will go way down if there is expansion though.

https://twitter.com/generalfanager/status/740551728488173569

Can't link the tweet properly but it is In there. Acquiring team has the choice but basically in every situation the player agrees to waive only if they will honour the clause.

The other reason I think the price will be low is there arnt a lot of teams that need goalies and not a lot of teams that can take his cap hit too. I thing here are only going to be 2 or maybe 3 real serious fleury suitors.

[robrob1974]

I don't like Fleury. He had one good playoff and then was extremely shaky in most, if not all of the playoffs he played in after that. Now his backup is about to win the cup.

I guess he is just a stop gap in hopes that Gillies, McDonald, or Schnieder steps up. None are guaranteed. Why not go for a guy we would know we last beyond in case our prospects don't make it?

[kehatch]

I don't like Fleury. He had one good playoff and then was extremely shaky in most, if not all of the playoffs he played in after that. Now his backup is about to win the cup.

I guess he is just a stop gap in hopes that Gillies, McDonald, or Schnieder steps up. None are guaranteed. Why not go for a guy we would know we last beyond in case our prospects don't make it?

 

I don't think that is a fair assessment of Fleury.  He is a good goalie.  

 

Regardless, I agree that getting a long term option is preferred.  But who is available and at what price?  And to they have the experience to tandem with our young guys?  Fleury has the right term under contract, he is a legitimate starting goalie, and there is a great chance he is available at a bargain price.  Having a tandem of Fleury / Gilles in a season or two would be close to ideal.  

[travel_dude]

^^^^^

 

Where does Elliott fit in that chart?  You can also see why Vasilevskiy is a concern.  Great high-danger, but not good elsewhere.

 

While MAF shines overall, I still worry about being stuck protecting him in any expansion draft.  Maybe we find out that the next one won't be until 2019/20, in which case it won't matter.  The other thing is his less than stellar playoff record.  Other than the last two seasons, he has dropped the puck.

[kehatch]

http://www.flamesfrom80feet.ca/2016/06/uh-oh-for-ortio-what-impact-could-be-of.html

 

Haynes wrote an article speculating what the Flames would do in goal this summer.  He is wondering if they will move on from Ortio and provides a lot of solid reasons why they might.  One of those was Ortio's refusal to take a conditioning stint in the AHL early in the season (he followed that up with some very poor NHL starts).  He is speculating Kuemper as a decent guy to take the back-up spot.  I have been a fan of acquiring Kuemper for some time.  

[cross16]

I don't understand flames fan who are going to "knock" Fleury for his playoff record. Flames have made the playoffs once in the last 7 seasons. His has 3 years left on his deal and if he can get yo there every year and give you a chance to win even just a round it's a huge win.

[kehatch]

^^^^^

 

Where does Elliott fit in that chart?  You can also see why Vasilevskiy is a concern.  Great high-danger, but not good elsewhere.

 

While MAF shines overall, I still worry about being stuck protecting him in any expansion draft.  Maybe we find out that the next one won't be until 2019/20, in which case it won't matter.  The other thing is his less than stellar playoff record.  Other than the last two seasons, he has dropped the puck.

 

Added him.  I also (for fun) added the Flames goalies.  In part for the comparison between Ortio and Kuemper.  

 

[robrob1974]

^^^^^

Where does Elliott fit in that chart? You can also see why Vasilevskiy is a concern. Great high-danger, but not good elsewhere.

While MAF shines overall, I still worry about being stuck protecting him in any expansion draft. Maybe we find out that the next one won't be until 2019/20, in which case it won't matter. The other thing is his less than stellar playoff record. Other than the last two seasons, he has dropped the puck.

Kehatch doesn't seem to think that is a fair assessment. While I think Fleury was probably goid in the regular season most years, I remember every year getting highlights of how bad he played. Last year and the year he won the cup are the only two I remember him being solid in.

I know how bad he has been because I have a really good Flyer fan friend who posted his highlights/lowlights on Facebook every playoff, to point out just how bad a goalie fleury is.

Something we talked about in length this year is our goaltending. Something we considered was the psychy our team got into when our goalies didn't make the save and the "here we go again" thought crept in and the team had already lost. That is how I see Fleury in the playoffs for a lot of those Pens years. He didn't look comfortable at all in most of those years since winning the cup.

[kehatch]

I don't understand flames fan who are going to "knock" Fleury for his playoff record. Flames have made the playoffs once in the last 7 seasons. His has 3 years left on his deal and if he can get yo there every year and give you a chance to win even just a round it's a huge win.

 

Indeed.  The Flames had one of the worst goal tending performance in history last season.  That isn't hyperbole either.  It was one of the worst ever.  

 

If we could go into next season with Fleury/Kuemper (for example) that would be a phenomenal upgrade and give us the foundation to start bringing in guys like Gilles the right way.    

[kehatch]

Kehatch doesn't seem to think that is a fair assessment. While I think Fleury was probably goid in the regular season most years, I remember every year getting highlights of how bad he played. Last year and the year he won the cup are the only two I remember him being solid in.

I know how bad he has been because I have a really good Flyer fan friend who posted his highlights/lowlights on Facebook every playoff, to point out just how bad a goalie fleury is.

Something we talked about in length this year is our goaltending. Something we considered was the psychy our team got into when our goalies didn't make the save and the "here we go again" thought crept in and the team had already lost. That is how I see Fleury in the playoffs for a lot of those Pens years. He didn't look comfortable at all in most of those years since winning the cup.

 

The gap between the frustration of having one of the worst goal tending performances in NHL history to having a guy that was only able to get past the first round 50% of his career is a pretty large one.  

 

Claiming you know 'how bad' a goalie is by watching highlights your Flyer's friend sends you doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in the assessment.  Fleury isn't the best goalie in the NHL.  But he is a great fit to what the Flames need based on contract term and acquisition price.  

[robrob1974]

I don't understand flames fan who are going to "knock" Fleury for his playoff record. Flames have made the playoffs once in the last 7 seasons. His has 3 years left on his deal and if he can get yo there every year and give you a chance to win even just a round it's a huge win.

But he hadn't given the pens a chance to win a round in most of his playoffs with the Pens. Last year was better than most years.

I won't get into his start this year because it was coming off a long break so he gets a pass on that one.

I say if our goal is to make the playoffs and get a decent regular season from him I will be ok, but don't expect him to perform better than Ramo in the playoffs.

Gotta also point out that the Pens are not and have not been the Flames. It's comparing apples to oranges. Malkin, Crosby, Kunitz, letang, and others to who? Iginla, then a rebuild and now a youth core who got us in on luck that the other teams took a year off.