cross16 Posted January 12, 2013 Report Share Posted January 12, 2013 1. St Louis - well balanced, well coached and returning a bulk of the same team I think Hitch keeps them focussed 2. Vancouver - still the best team in the NW division 3. LA - Would have won the division if Sutter joined early. Benefited from the lockout with extra time off 4. Chicago - Central got a little weaker so with the extra games Chicago benefits 5. Minnisota - pretty well balanced team with just too much talent 6. Pheonix - too well coached and too good defensivly to take that much of a fall. 7. Detroit - Lidstrom is good, but so is MIke Babcock. He finds a way 8. Nashville - Team as over 100 points last year and lost 1 player. Trotz will get them playing. 9. San Jose - wouldn't shock me to see Todd Mclellan the first coach fired. 10. Calgary - not enough improvement and too many teams better than they are. 11. Colorado - team is just stil too young and Saco just can't seem to get them over the hump 12. Edmonton - make strides but still too green in too many key areas 13. Dallas - moves they made were not in the right direction 14. Anaheim - another team going backwards. Whats going to happen with Getzlaf and Perry? 15. Columbus - just look at the roster.. going in the right direction I think thoguh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted January 15, 2013 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 Barring any sort of unexpected series of multiple injuries or massive selloff of talent, teams generally don't fall off drastically from their previous yr's pt totals. Nor do teams generally explode up the standings in a single off season unless they are coming off a season where they had fallen off the map from the yr before that. Yr to yr mov't is usually more subtle (+/- 10ish pts)... So I will predict... (pt movt based on a 82 gm pace) 1. St. Louis (up a couple) 2. Vancouver (down a couple) 3. LA (up 8 ish pts) 4. SJ (up 7ish pts - bounceback yr - last yr was just odd) 5. Nashville (down 4ish) 6. Dallas (up 7ish pts) 7. Chicago (down 5ish pts) 8. Colorado (up 7ish pts) -- 9. Detroit (down 6ish pts) 10. Minny (up 13ish pts) - most improved team over their previous yr. 11. Phoenix (down 6ish pts) 12. Anaheim (up 6ish pts) 13. Edmonton (up 10ish pts) 14. Calgary (down 5ish pts) 15. CBJ (up 7ish pts) bold guesses : - Det may miss. - Calgary may only drop a few pts relative to last season, but ranking takes a hit due to teams behind them jumping up a bit - Minny the biggest improvement in the West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carty Posted January 15, 2013 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 14. Calgary (down 5ish pts) - Calgary may only drop a few pts relative to last season, but ranking takes a hit due to teams behind them jumping up a bit 14th?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C_worthy Posted January 15, 2013 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 Barring any sort of unexpected series of multiple injuries or massive selloff of talent, teams generally don't fall off drastically from their previous yr's pt totals. Nor do teams generally explode up the standings in a single off season unless they are coming off a season where they had fallen off the map from the yr before that. Yr to yr mov't is usually more subtle (+/- 10ish pts)... So I will predict... (pt movt based on a 82 gm pace) 1. St. Louis (up a couple) 2. Vancouver (down a couple) 3. LA (up 8 ish pts) 4. SJ (up 7ish pts - bounceback yr - last yr was just odd) 5. Nashville (down 4ish) 6. Dallas (up 7ish pts) 7. Chicago (down 5ish pts) 8. Colorado (up 7ish pts) -- 9. Detroit (down 6ish pts) 10. Minny (up 13ish pts) - most improved team over their previous yr. 11. Phoenix (down 6ish pts) 12. Anaheim (up 6ish pts) 13. Edmonton (up 10ish pts) 14. Calgary (down 5ish pts) 15. CBJ (up 7ish pts) bold guesses : - Det may miss. - Calgary may only drop a few pts relative to last season, but ranking takes a hit due to teams behind them jumping up a bit - Minny the biggest improvement in the West you have teams aggregately improving by 37 pts, despite the fact that they don't play any games against the East (and last year they were 46 games above 500 vs the East) unless every single game is a 3 pointer, we can expect a significant drop in points across the board (pro-rating of course - as you were) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted January 15, 2013 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 you have teams aggregately improving by 37 pts, despite the fact that they don't play any games against the East (and last year they were 46 games above 500 vs the East) unless every single game is a 3 pointer, we can expect a significant drop in points across the board (pro-rating of course - as you were) You're right.... 1. St. Louis (-1) 2. Vancouver (down 5ish) 3. LA (up 6 ish pts) 4. SJ (up 5ish pts - bounceback yr - last yr was just odd) 5. Nashville (down 6ish) 6. Dallas (up 5ish pts) 7. Chicago (down 7ish pts) 8. Colorado (up 5ish pts) -- 9. Detroit (down 8ish pts) 10. Minny (up 10ish pts) - most improved team over their previous yr. 11. Phoenix (down 7ish pts) 12. Anaheim (up 4ish pts) 13. Edmonton (up 8ish pts) 14. Calgary (down 7ish pts) 15. CBJ (up 4ish pts) That's a lil better... But still not balanced overall. Ah well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C_worthy Posted January 15, 2013 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 ^ I am not buying what SJ is selling. Also, good to see your annual support for Dallas (once again don't buy it, but you are consistent) Colorado is a enigma How can you have Anaheim higher than 14th? Last year, Van was 1st and the Flames 9th. You've got Van 2nd and the Flames 14th. I'll meet you half way for a bet if you are interested - so Van would have to finish 10 spots above the Flames (I'll give you the mid-point) and I win if the Flames are 9 or fewer spots behind them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted January 15, 2013 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 ^ I am not buying what SJ is selling. Also, good to see your annual support for Dallas (once again don't buy it, but you are consistent) Colorado is a enigma How can you have Anaheim higher than 14th? Last year, Van was 1st and the Flames 9th. You've got Van 2nd and the Flames 14th. I'll meet you half way for a bet if you are interested - so Van would have to finish 10 spots above the Flames (I'll give you the mid-point) and I win if the Flames are 9 or fewer spots behind them. Derf? Forget rankings, that's a crap shoot this year considering how compressed the standings will be.... we could be talking about 4 points separating 7 thru 11. Last yr: Canucks 111 pts (11-6-1 vs the E) Flames 90 pts (6-7-5 vs the E) 21 pt difference Cancel out the E records to 500... Canucks 106 pts Flames 91 pts 16 pt difference Prorated to 48gms in order to match this yr... Canucks 62 pts Flames 53 pts 9 pt difference last yr. So what are you predicting for Calgary's points this yr? You expecting better than the adjusted 0.554 pt %? Canucks were at 0.646 pt %.. adjusted. We can come up with something around what a point difference may be between the 2 teams.. or pts of each team, i don't know. I really have no clue how things will end up in a 48 gm schedule... any team can get hot and make it... this is not a 82 gm grind where teams deserve their spots at the end of the season. Spread of points of the top 16 (playoff teams) last year was 92 to 111 pts.. Prorated in a 48 gm schedule = 54 to 65 pts. A mere 11 pts could separate the playoff teams from each other. (upon further review.. StL was 14-2-2 vs the E... a HUGE contributor to their 109 pts last season. That should suppress expectation on their pt totals this yr to a certain degree)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C_worthy Posted January 15, 2013 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 Derf? What did I say that was Derf-ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Don Posted January 15, 2013 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 What did I say that was Derf-ian? I think they had the same bet last year. BTW, has Derf been around at all lately? I miss that guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C_worthy Posted January 15, 2013 Report Share Posted January 15, 2013 I predict that he will make a glorious and triumphant return before game 1 on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted January 16, 2013 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 What did I say that was Derf-ian? Don nailed it... I edited the post with some numbers... take a gander and see where the friendly bet should be laid..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C_worthy Posted January 16, 2013 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 Derf? Forget rankings, that's a crap shoot this year considering how compressed the standings will be.... we could be talking about 4 points separating 7 thru 11. Last yr: Canucks 111 pts (11-6-1 vs the E) Flames 90 pts (6-7-5 vs the E) 21 pt difference Cancel out the E records to 500... Canucks 106 pts Flames 91 pts 16 pt difference Prorated to 48gms in order to match this yr... Canucks 62 pts Flames 53 pts 9 pt difference last yr. So what are you predicting for Calgary's points this yr? You expecting better than the adjusted 0.554 pt %? Canucks were at 0.646 pt %.. adjusted. We can come up with something around what a point difference may be between the 2 teams.. or pts of each team, i don't know. I really have no clue how things will end up in a 48 gm schedule... any team can get hot and make it... this is not a 82 gm grind where teams deserve their spots at the end of the season. Spread of points of the top 16 (playoff teams) last year was 92 to 111 pts.. Prorated in a 48 gm schedule = 54 to 65 pts. A mere 11 pts could separate the playoff teams from each other. (upon further review.. StL was 14-2-2 vs the E... a HUGE contributor to their 109 pts last season. That should suppress expectation on their pt totals this yr to a certain degree)) I think it is more reflective to eliminate the Eastern games and then pro-rate. That leaves 66 pts for Van and 55 for Calgary. Van: 111 - 23 = 88 in 64 games = 66 pts in 48 games Cal: 90 - 17 = 73 in 64 games = 55 pts Put the over/under at 10.5 and I'll take the Flames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted January 16, 2013 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 You're right.... 1. St. Louis (-1) 2. Vancouver (down 5ish) 3. LA (up 6 ish pts) 4. SJ (up 5ish pts - bounceback yr - last yr was just odd) 5. Nashville (down 6ish) 6. Dallas (up 5ish pts) 7. Chicago (down 7ish pts) 8. Colorado (up 5ish pts) -- 9. Detroit (down 8ish pts) 10. Minny (up 10ish pts) - most improved team over their previous yr. 11. Phoenix (down 7ish pts) 12. Anaheim (up 4ish pts) 13. Edmonton (up 8ish pts) 14. Calgary (down 7ish pts) 15. CBJ (up 4ish pts) That's a lil better... But still not balanced overall. Ah well. Here's my updated prediction with approximate pt totals... 1. St. Louis 63 2. Vancouver 62 3. LA 59 4. SJ 58 5. Nashville 57 6. Dallas 55 7. Chicago 55 8. Colorado 54 -- 9. Detroit 54 10. Minny 53 11. Phoenix 53 12. Anaheim 49 13. Edmonton 48 14. Calgary 48 15. CBJ 40 Total of 808 pts handed out to 15 teams = 53.9 pts/team or a 0.561 pt %. So that's in line with recent average of bonus pts handed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C_worthy Posted January 16, 2013 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 so we'll make it 13.5 then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted January 16, 2013 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think it is more reflective to eliminate the Eastern games and then pro-rate. That leaves 66 pts for Van and 55 for Calgary. Van: 111 - 23 = 88 in 64 games = 66 pts in 48 games Cal: 90 - 17 = 73 in 64 games = 55 pts Put the over/under at 10.5 and I'll take the Flames I THINK i get it what you are saying... but correct me if i'm wrong... O/U being the point difference between the 2 teams? And by taking the Flames, you would be taking the Under? at 10.5 i would take the under as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C_worthy Posted January 16, 2013 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 I THINK i get it what you are saying... but correct me if i'm wrong... O/U being the point difference between the 2 teams? And by taking the Flames, you would be taking the Under? at 10.5 i would take the under as well.. correct you just predicted 14 pts but you'd take the under? so you don't really predict that, you're just trolling Flames fans a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted January 16, 2013 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 correct you just predicted 14 pts but you'd take the under? so you don't really predict that, you're just trolling Flames fans a bit No... sort of the best case scenario... if Van gets out hot. I'm leaning the other way a bit more if i'm being absolutely realistic and assume Van struggles with their players not playing at this point and missing the 2nd line. Hoping for the best, expecting a little less. If i were to bet on it.. the number i would pick as a separation would be a 9. I would take the over on a 8.5.. would flip a coin on a 9.5... go under on 10.5... You? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_People1 Posted January 16, 2013 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 The only thing with Van is that they might not have any motivation to prove anything in the regular season. They're just waiting for Kesler to get healthy and then waiting for the playoffs to begin. It could become a San Jose situation where they gradually become a complacent regular season team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted January 16, 2013 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 The only thing with Van is that they might not have any motivation to prove anything in the regular season. They're just waiting for Kesler to get healthy and then waiting for the playoffs to begin. It could become a San Jose situation where they gradually become a complacent regular season team. I can't imagine any team would ever come out complacent for a mere 48 game schedule and after being denied playing their sport for 4 months. Every player interviewed has presented as being anxious about playing again.. The season is a sprint... motivation is to make the playoffs which is far from guaranteed. Just look at the projected point spreads... A single 5 game 'complacent' stretch could be the difference between 2nd and 9th. No one is more aware of that than every player and coach in the league. Wishful thought tho. (and SJ only dropped off last yr after 5 straight 100 pt seasons.. hardly a trend. Especially considering there is only one way to go after you win a President's Trophy) Or maybe you have a looser definition of 'complacency' than I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C_worthy Posted January 16, 2013 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 No... sort of the best case scenario... if Van gets out hot. I'm leaning the other way a bit more if i'm being absolutely realistic and assume Van struggles with their players not playing at this point and missing the 2nd line. Hoping for the best, expecting a little less. If i were to bet on it.. the number i would pick as a separation would be a 9. I would take the over on a 8.5.. would flip a coin on a 9.5... go under on 10.5... You? I would take the under at 10.5 but that's about it - a lot of question marks. Also, if things go poorly, they probalby start trading guys and it quickly becomes 20 pts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted January 16, 2013 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 I would take the under at 10.5 but that's about it - a lot of question marks. Also, if things go poorly, they probalby start trading guys and it quickly becomes 20 pts So what's the actual number you think the spread will be? i think 9. if you think less than nine, then we have a line at 8.5 - i take over.. you take under. if you think its 10 pts or over... then the line is 9.5 - i take under.. you take over. If you think 9 as well... then there's no need to bet is there, heh heh... pretty simple, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C_worthy Posted January 16, 2013 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 So what's the actual number you think the spread will be? i think 9. if you think less than nine, then we have a line at 8.5 - i take over.. you take under. if you think its 10 pts or over... then the line is 9.5 - i take under.. you take over. If you think 9 as well... then there's no need to bet is there, heh heh... pretty simple, no? the market is 10.5 (based on last year) take your pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted January 16, 2013 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 the market is 10.5 (based on last year) take your pick The market? based on last year? independant of all changes since last season or the status of either team presently? heh heh... i'll pass. .... For sheats and giggles... Flames Over/Under in points: 51.5 I'll take under. Flames Over/Under in seeding: 11.5 I'll take under. Canucks Over/Under in points: 58.5 I'll take over. Canucks Over/Under in seed: 2.5 I'll take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConnorFutureGM Posted January 16, 2013 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 Canucks will not win the President's trophy this year. They're worse off than last year and the rest of the north west maintained or improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted January 16, 2013 Report Share Posted January 16, 2013 Canucks will not win the President's trophy this year. They're worse off than last year and the rest of the north west maintained or improved. And your point prediction for the Oilers? You have em at 8th.. That's about 54 pts. a 0.563 pt % Last yr... 0.451 pt % 0.563 over 82 gms... 92 pts. An 18 pt improvement based on the additions of 2 rookies (Nail & Justin), Fistric and internal improvement? And where would a hypothetical 18 pt improvement rank on the all time list? Top 10? Top 5? And you think the above additions would spark that jump? hmm.. (for the record, its an 11 pt improvment prorated for 48 gms) Also after 48 games last yr.. the Oilers sat at a mere 40 pts (the whole young team starting slow trend)... So you are talking about a 14pt improvement over last yr`s first 48 gms. (But to be all inclusive - In the final 48 gmes of the season last yr the Oilers had 41 pts... so they didn`t even really get to experience that improvement factor young teams usually see as the season goes on) The Oilers may benefit from a short season... but others will not benefit as much? Like Nashville? Dallas? Colorado? Maybe you could logically lay out the reasons why the Oilers benefit to a greater extent than other teams? Because in my experience watching the game... rookies start out slow as they accomodate to the new level of play and improve and come into their own and find their groove as the season progresses. Will there be enough time for Nail and Justin in 48 gms to become impact players? I would say the Canucks winning the President's Trophy (not that i think they will) is MUCH more likely than the Oilers in the playoffs this yr. But hey... maybe that's just me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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