Oilers

[robrob74]

1 minute ago, Cowtownguy said:

I don't think that they expected Draisaitl to have such a good year and be in a position to push for a better contract. We will see what happens I guess. If Brouwer doesn't pony up, it will be a problem. I think he may turn it around next year. I believe that Brouwer earns 4 or 4.5 compared to Lucic at 6, no? Both have been disappointments. 

 

Yup, I just know that both contracts are troublesome. I compare the two based on the fact they're going to cost each team. 4.5 for us would be nice to pay Backlund plus change. But having to pay Backlund full plus Brouwer is tough on our cap. 

 

Lucic' money would be nice to keep Eberle.

[Cowtownguy]

3 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

Yup, I just know that both contracts are troublesome. I compare the two based on the fact they're going to cost each team. 4.5 for us would be nice to pay Backlund plus change. But having to pay Backlund full plus Brouwer is tough on our cap. 

 

Lucic' money would be nice to keep Eberle.

Good points. The free agents cost money and possibly players. Open up opportunities for the AHL boys!

[Flyerfan52]

5 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

It's such an unfortunate/fortunate set of events for the Oilers. LOL... If he was drafted a few years before Mc David, he'd definitely only get the 6-6.5. That Lucic deal sure hinders their future, much like I kind of worry about it with Brouwer. A bit less, but who brings more? Brouwer or Lucic?

Brouwer's contract is tradable even if it involves salary retention.

Lucic's contract is low base but huge signing bonuses throughout. Salary retention is on base only so the trading team is still stuck with that signing extra. In the final year the bonus is 3.0 so even with maximum 50% retention it's 4.5 for 35 year old. I don't know why he bothered with NMC clauses as that contract is untradable.

[The_People1]

5 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

It's such an unfortunate/fortunate set of events for the Oilers. LOL... If he was drafted a few years before Mc David, he'd definitely only get the 6-6.5. That Lucic deal sure hinders their future, much like I kind of worry about it with Brouwer. A bit less, but who brings more? Brouwer or Lucic?

 

Lucic had 23 goals and 50 points.  Not great but not far off Sean Monahan, unfortunately.  In comparison, Bo Horvat "broke out" last season had 20-goals and 52-points is also not far off.

 

Not only that, Lucic produced close to his usual level.

 

Not that Lucic is worth $6-mil but Brouwer, sucked to a league of his own.

[cross16]

54 minutes ago, Cowtownguy said:

I did not forget that McDavid's salary as a percentage of the cap is similar to others. Actually, OV was paid at a slightly higher rate than McDavid. One difference, however, is that the Oilers don't just have one player who is paid bank, they have won the draft lottery several times and there are a lot of other players to be highly paid. They already pay RNH a ransom. As I said, Draisaitl is going to want Toews money more or less next year. Talbot is not going to stay pat at $4 million if they go deep next year. Lucic, well, need I say more?

 

So, I contest your conclusion that they will be fine in a few years. There are already signs that it is unravelling. They just ditched their third best scorer for a total loser to save money. Surely, you do not think it a good idea to trade Backlund for a Strome to save money to give to Johnny. They will keep McDavid, but they are going to have to manage salaries and demands from other players. 

 

If johnny was as good as McDavid I would not bat an eye and do that trade. 

 

The hardest thing to find in this league is elite talent and the Oilers potentially have 3. Cap or no cap I will never believe you can be screwed as a franchise when you have potentially 3 elite pieces. For sure it puts pressure on your drafting and development but the OIlers will have a very good core for the next 8 years and you can always compete when you have a very good core.

 

Elliot Friedman just made this point on Tim and Sid that when the it came time to pay Malkin/Crosby it tied up 31% of their cap at the time. The Oilers could pay Draistl 9 million per and he and McDavid combined would not reach that same percentage. Thus why I think people are getting ahead of themselves when they are assuming Edmonton is screwed. 

 

Not to mention if the cap keeps going up in 4-5 years the McDavid deal won't even be that bad. 

[Cowtownguy]

1 minute ago, Flyerfan52 said:

Brouwer's contract is tradable even if it involves salary retention.

Lucic's contract is low base but huge signing bonuses throughout. Salary retention is on base only so the trading team is still stuck with that signing extra. In the final year the bonus is 3.0 so even with maximum 50% retention it's 4.5 for 35 year old. I don't know why he bothered with NMC clauses as that contract is untradable.

Ha! So true. I think that we all predicted that contract would be an albatross around Chia's neck.

 

I believe that both Talbot and Draisaitl will renegotiate next year. I wonder how much those two contracts together cost the Oilers if they go deep into the playoffs next year. I wonder if Draisaitl gets around $9 million and Talbot around $7 million depending upon play. I suspect that together Draisaitl, McDavid, and Talbot alone will eat up 34%-40% of their cap space. Then you have Russell at $4 million (which is too high to me), RNH at $6 million, and Lucic at $6 million (21%).

[cross16]

2 minutes ago, Cowtownguy said:

Ha! So true. I think that we all predicted that contract would be an albatross around Chia's neck.

 

I believe that both Talbot and Draisaitl will renegotiate next year. I wonder how much those two contracts together cost the Oilers if they go deep into the playoffs next year. I wonder if Draisaitl gets around $9 million and Talbot around $7 million depending upon play. I suspect that together Draisaitl, McDavid, and Talbot alone will eat up 34%-40% of their cap space. Then you have Russell at $4 million (which is too high to me), RNH at $6 million, and Lucic at $6 million (21%).

 

Draisaitl is an RFA this year. 

[Cowtownguy]

6 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

If johnny was as good as McDavid I would not bat an eye and do that trade. 

 

The hardest thing to find in this league is elite talent and the Oilers potentially have 3. Cap or no cap I will never believe you can be screwed as a franchise when you have potentially 3 elite pieces. For sure it puts pressure on your drafting and development but the OIlers will have a very good core for the next 8 years and you can always compete when you have a very good core.

 

Elliot Friedman just made this point on Tim and Sid that when the it came time to pay Malkin/Crosby it tied up 31% of their cap at the time. The Oilers could pay Draistl 9 million per and he and McDavid combined would not reach that same percentage. Thus why I think people are getting ahead of themselves when they are assuming Edmonton is screwed. 

 

Not to mention if the cap keeps going up in 4-5 years the McDavid deal won't even be that bad. 

Oh, I do not disagree with this. The Oilers had no choice but to pay McDavid that kind of money. I would love to have such an excellent player on the Flames. Having said that, I believe a well-managed team with lower salaries is a better strategy. I have never really been a fan of the build around 2 players to that extent. Chicago is imploding, LA blew up, and Pittsburgh has made it work. I am not sure that Edmonton has the same strengths, including management strengths, as these others. In the end, I think we just believe in different models of winning in ice hockey.

[cross16]

11 minutes ago, Cowtownguy said:

Oh, I do not disagree with this. The Oilers had no choice but to pay McDavid that kind of money. I would love to have such an excellent player on the Flames. Having said that, I believe a well-managed team with lower salaries is a better strategy. I have never really been a fan of the build around 2 players to that extent. Chicago is imploding, LA blew up, and Pittsburgh has made it work. I am not sure that Edmonton has the same strengths, including management strengths, as these others. In the end, I think we just believe in different models of winning in ice hockey.

 

Ideally sure but that isn't possible sometimes. The alternative is you trade Draisaitl and/or McDavid but is that the better strategy?

 

I think you work with what you've got and the Oilers are. Well in some cases, not in others, but my main point is I don't agree with this concept they are screwed. They are going to be good for a while just solely based on their elite talent alone. 

[Cowtownguy]

2 minutes ago, cross16 said:

 

Ideally sure but that isn't possible sometimes. The alternative is you trade Draisaitl and/or McDavid but is that the better strategy?

 

I think you work with what you've got and the Oilers are. Well in some cases, not in others, but my main point is I don't agree with this concept they are screwed. They are going to be good for a while just solely based on their elite talent alone. 

I guess it depends on what you mean by screwed. To me, it means you ditch your third best scorer for a lamo because you are broke. They already did that. A pure cap dump. I suspect that RNH is next. That means screwed to me. When you get rid of Hall, RNH, Eberle, Yakupov (I acknowledge that not all of these were salary dumps), I say that is poor management. So, in the end, I am not saying that the McDavid contract alone is problematic. I am saying that you cannot have 6 players consume around 55%-60% of your salary. That does not seem to be enough for the others. It worked for Chicago for a while and they have truly been miraculous in managing that mess. But like I said above, they may be unravelling. And don't forget, Pittsburgh was in serious trouble not that long ago before they got their new coach (I am tired after a late work night and an early morning so I forget his name ).

 

As an aside, I would not be unhappy if Quenneville got out of that cab and departed on a flight for Calgary. I can dream can't I?

[rickross]

$13.25M per year.  Any hair Chiarelli had left has probably fallen off already. Chia Pet fail! I'm still not sure I buy the $.13.25M but I wouldn't be surprised. I could see them working out a more digestible deal, I could see McD taking less to avoid any negative backlash for handcuffing the team. We could be very surprised at the final contract details, and maybe the Oil figure out how to work around the cap like the Hawks have for years. 

 

Crazy to think 1 player could be as expensive as JH and Monny combined but McD is a supreme talent so he's obviously worth it. Draisatl is where things will get interesting...it's much trickier pinning his price point with all the variables surrounding him right now. I'm sure he's not going to want to be priced too far below McD. Talk of him being offer sheeted don't sound unrealistic...offer sheets are there for a reason but GMs are scared to take that approach. Things are about to get very real for the Oilers. From the euphoria of finally having success and reaching the playoffs right to the brass tax that is the business of sport. 

[robrob74]

3 minutes ago, rickross said:

$13.25M per year.  Any hair Chiarelli had left has probably fallen off already. Chia Pet fail! I'm still not sure I buy the $.13.25M but I wouldn't be surprised. I could see them working out a more digestible deal, I could see McD taking less to avoid any negative backlash for handcuffing the team. We could be very surprised at the final contract details, and maybe the Oil figure out how to work around the cap like the Hawks have for years. 

 

Crazy to think 1 player could be as expensive as JH and Monny combined but McD is a supreme talent so he's obviously worth it. Draisatl is where things will get interesting...it's much trickier pinning his price point with all the variables surrounding him right now. I'm sure he's not going to want to be priced too far below McD. Talk of him being offer sheeted don't sound unrealistic...offer sheets are there for a reason but GMs are scared to take that approach. Things are about to get very real for the Oilers. From the euphoria of finally having success and reaching the playoffs right to the brass tax that is the business of sport. 

 

I don't get why he is worth that much or why he thinks he is worth just less than mcdavid?

i assumed 6.5...

 

take him away from Mc David and what would he score?

[rickross]

21 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

I don't get why he is worth that much or why he thinks he is worth just less than mcdavid?

i assumed 6.5...

 

take him away from Mc David and what would he score?

I wouldn't pay him more than $7M...he had a classic contract year and the timing couldn't be worse for the Oilers. He outperformed McD in the playoffs...looked dominant at times so I'm sure they'll use all the leverage they can. It'll be interesting to see how this effects their activity during the Free Agency period and beyond. 

[robrob74]

2 hours ago, rickross said:

I wouldn't pay him more than $7M...he had a classic contract year and the timing couldn't be worse for the Oilers. He outperformed McD in the playoffs...looked dominant at times so I'm sure they'll use all the leverage they can. It'll be interesting to see how this effects their activity during the Free Agency period and beyond. 

 

I didn't watch them of course. I guess he could be worth more then?

[Cowtownguy]

9 hours ago, robrob74 said:

 

I don't get why he is worth that much or why he thinks he is worth just less than mcdavid?

i assumed 6.5...

 

take him away from Mc David and what would he score?

Edmonton fans have experienced being losers for so long, it is hard not to pay the players who have had success recently. Imagine if Chia played hardball with McDavid and Draisaitl, and they played less well, one was a holdout, etc., the fans would be livid. I suspect that there is a mentality to "just pay the man". They got the #1 player in the league, managed to screw the city for a new arena to make the dumpy downtown less trashy, just start the season already and plan the parade route. These people are in a "win now, everybody be happy" frenzy. I mean, they even brought in Gretzky to help them pretend it is still the 1980s. The Oilers and the City of Edmonton have dropped so many hundreds of millions to buy a winner, a million here or there for their second best player probably seems like a drop in the bucket. I am not sure that Chia has the restraint to do what is best. I also suspect that there is serious pressure to win ASAP because they know that more cap dump Eberle deals will have to follow before long.

 

In the long run, I really wonder if an offer sheet on Draisaitl might not be the best outcome for the Oilers. Would they not get a few #1 picks in compensation to even out their cap? 

[Carty]

Dave Semenko has passed away at 59 after a battle with cancer...

 

RIP Dave...

[Cowtownguy]

39 minutes ago, Carty said:

Dave Semenko has passed away at 59 after a battle with cancer...

 

RIP Dave...

Yes, quite young really. RIP.

[Carty]

Pouliot has been put on waivers for the purpose of a buyout...   Can't see anyone picking him up at $4mil a season...   Especially after last year...

 

It gives them a little more room on the cap for the next two seasons, $2.67 mil, but have a cap hit of $1,333,333 for 4 years...

[JustAFlamer]

In terms of McD contract :

 

I prefer the "percent of cap" comparisons (at time of signing) i have seen when comparing the #'s being tossed about

if look at the dollar vs what other established stars are making, looks worse than really is. (Crosby 8.7m etc)

with the cap changing year to year think is the only true comparable can be made.

 

While yes is now higher than all others  If take step back and compare percent; is actually right around the same, to some of the other big name contracts.

I do not believe he has earned it "yet", but he is the face of franchise, and first good thing for oil in a decade so they do not have much choice

I also do not agree with giving that % of cap to 1 player but the history is there (in players contract comparables), and other teams willing to do it, so Oil brass basically has no choice.

 

PS i am NOT a closet Oil fan, i have disliked them since 80's, and they have some of the most annoying trolls on boards

I think the contract coupled with Lucic, Russel, Drai and next year talbot will mean they will be in serious trouble after next year. BUT what would you do? 

(i would start offer McD 11m@8y and let drai get OS if not accept 7.5m @ 6y or something similar as max willing to pay)

[zima]

Dave Semenko was such a strong man mentally as well as physically but that bad word takes out the strongest of us so sad RIP I hated you as an Oiler but enjoyed watching you on a Saturday with  Don Cherry always amusing.

[Flyerfan52]

6 hours ago, JustAFlamer said:

In terms of McD contract :

 

I prefer the "percent of cap" comparisons (at time of signing) i have seen when comparing the #'s being tossed about

if look at the dollar vs what other established stars are making, looks worse than really is. (Crosby 8.7m etc)

with the cap changing year to year think is the only true comparable can be made.

 

While yes is now higher than all others  If take step back and compare percent; is actually right around the same, to some of the other big name contracts.

I do not believe he has earned it "yet", but he is the face of franchise, and first good thing for oil in a decade so they do not have much choice

I also do not agree with giving that % of cap to 1 player but the history is there (in players contract comparables), and other teams willing to do it, so Oil brass basically has no choice.

 

PS i am NOT a closet Oil fan, i have disliked them since 80's, and they have some of the most annoying trolls on boards

I think the contract coupled with Lucic, Russel, Drai and next year talbot will mean they will be in serious trouble after next year. BUT what would you do? 

(i would start offer McD 11m@8y and let drai get OS if not accept 7.5m @ 6y or something similar as max willing to pay)

The % for Crosby was in days they could reasonably expect the cap to rise. It only went up this year due to NHLPA using the clause.

I agree McDavid will earn those $s. Maybe even by the time the extention kicks in 2018.

 

Besides the Oilers you mention there was also the part where Hall, Eberle & RNH were prepaid not to desert. They got out of it fine with Hall for a D on the verge (& they desperately needed D), but could only move Eberle for a depth salary dump. RNH isn't worth the 6 x 4 left so it'll be salary retention or another salary dump.

Lucic is basically unmovable even if he didn't have a NMC while Russell is merely overpaid by about a million.

Draisaitl is dang good & after only getting NHL wages 1 of 3 years will probably want a little catch up if he renews. He is a possible OS magnet come July 1 & with teams having cap experts on staff 1 will come up with an offer that doesn't cost 4 1sts but still mess up Edmonton's salary structure. That weird formula of the top 5 years to determine compensation is a doozy that messes with the formula but I'm not a #s nerd.

I still see their success this year as more Talbot than McDavid. He's still young (especially for a grade "A" goalie) but that workload has to be wearing him out. If it did/does it hurts them more than if McDavid went down. They have other guys that can put the puck in the net but zilch in net without Talbot.

[travel_dude]

11 hours ago, Flyerfan52 said:

The % for Crosby was in days they could reasonably expect the cap to rise. It only went up this year due to NHLPA using the clause.

I agree McDavid will earn those $s. Maybe even by the time the extention kicks in 2018.

 

Besides the Oilers you mention there was also the part where Hall, Eberle & RNH were prepaid not to desert. They got out of it fine with Hall for a D on the verge (& they desperately needed D), but could only move Eberle for a depth salary dump. RNH isn't worth the 6 x 4 left so it'll be salary retention or another salary dump.

Lucic is basically unmovable even if he didn't have a NMC while Russell is merely overpaid by about a million.

Draisaitl is dang good & after only getting NHL wages 1 of 3 years will probably want a little catch up if he renews. He is a possible OS magnet come July 1 & with teams having cap experts on staff 1 will come up with an offer that doesn't cost 4 1sts but still mess up Edmonton's salary structure. That weird formula of the top 5 years to determine compensation is a doozy that messes with the formula but I'm not a #s nerd.

I still see their success this year as more Talbot than McDavid. He's still young (especially for a grade "A" goalie) but that workload has to be wearing him out. If it did/does it hurts them more than if McDavid went down. They have other guys that can put the puck in the net but zilch in net without Talbot.

 

You can look at McDavid rookie year (> 1.0 ppg) as equivalent production to last year.  How did the Oiler fare that year?

Bottom 3 in the league.  McDavid's multi-point games were not enough to drag them out of the basement.  When he was in the lineup, the results were no better than when he was out.  A couple of reasons for that; Talbot was not able to carry the team that year, and the defense was less than adequate.

 

Fast forward a year, and Talbot plays more games and plays better, sometimes stealing a game.  Russell doesn't prevent scoring chances as much as he blocks perimeter shots.  So their defense is a little better (Klefbom healthy and Larsson), their goalie is showing he is worth the trade, and McDavid is putting up similar numbers per game.  This coming season, they have no Sekera for 1/2 a year.  To date they have not improved the team.  Pulju may make the team, but he hasn't shown NHL capability yet at anything more than a 4th line player. 

[rickross]

I still think these McDavid and Draisatl deals will come in a little cheaper than what's being reported but still rich enough to cause a cap crunch. Hoping we see an offer sheet proposed...it's been awhile since we've seen one. 

[CBTC-FLAMES-EDITION]

TSN has a rumour Of EDM and COL talking Draisatl and Duchesne. Only a rumour and would obviously be more moving parts but interesting. Possible Chia doesn't want to pony-up and Draisatl isn't open to the home-town discount.

[CBTC-FLAMES-EDITION]

Hockey is interesting. Would you rather have McDavid and Draisatl or Gaudreau, Monahan, Backlund and Frolik on your team? Figuring the cap hits would equal about the same. In the NBA you want a superstar because he can play 80-90% of a game and near 100% in the playoffs but hockey is such a team sport where your best forward plays roughly 35-40% of a game. Plus the hard cap makes it difficult to build around superstars with limited funds. Will be interesting to see how this plays out but honestly when EDM got McDavid, potential cap hell for the Oilers was really all we could have hoped for (I don't hope for injuries) because of how good he is. Signing Lucic's doesn't hurt either.