conundrumed
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Posts posted by conundrumed
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20 hours ago, jjgallow said:
@conundrumed I got an idea for some of your 30 6th rounder picks this year, since you were desperately looking for scouts there.
My inspiration was your love of recruiting sons of former Flames, like Tij.
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/599383/lucas-st-louis
For serious though, who is the Gold Standard in undrafted late-bloomers? And the gold standard in exceptions to the size rule?
Now look at what the kids are doing and their trajectory. Most notably Lucas. Mason too early to tell. I won't pretend that they are their Dad. They aren't, this isn't a Tij story. But, interestingly, I came across Lucas quite by accident, looking for undrafted statistical anomalies in the USHL. The exact same kind of screen that would have picked up their Dad. Lucas was at the top of it.
Way more interested in Wings kids. lol
Especially when they're the youngest in the draft, not the oldest:
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21 minutes ago, cberg said:
Don’t really know, but trade valuations giving him a comparable of Chara.
Actually, I’m laughing. This is supposed to be a so-so draft but here we are arguing between the top12-15 as if they may all be hall of famers. Not likely, maybe 3-4?
It's what we do. lol
Hard to not be over-excitable when we have picks for a change! And we're trending towards actually utilizing draft picks as more than trade fodder. What a concept!!
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2 hours ago, Thebrewcrew said:
Buium plays a similar game to Hughes.
While true, I think it gets a bit over-emphasized. Quinn Hughes has the best skating in the world. He probably laughs at Jack, who is an elite skater. So that comparison is a bit much to live up to.
So while Buium is a great skater and can create time and space due to his skating and IQ/vision, he's still a world away from Hughes. He's closer to Luke than he is Quinn, and I think Luke is a great player. Quinn's unreal skating puts him in the rarified air of Makar-level dman. Extremely rare.
I think only Levshunov has a chance to be a top 5 dman in the world in this class. Dude is a specimen, near all muscle. Not to say 6th to 20th best in time is anything to scoff at.
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My dream of Calgary vs Grand Rapids lives to see another day.
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Those called back goals against Tampa...oof. I don't know....pretty mild. Same calls IN Tampa? Gotta wonder.
Stamkos to Detroit. lol
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1 hour ago, The_People1 said:
How about Silayev? How to rank these 3? Buium, Dickinson, and Silayev.
Herein lies the problem. I've watched a lot of Dickinson, quite a bit of Buium, Levshunov and Parekh. I've watched about half a game that Silayev played in. Just haven't seen enough of him to offer anything tangible. I watched more of the K last year, but the early morn starts just didn't work for me this year.
Would Silayev come over and been as clearly dominant as Levshunov? I just don't know. Maybe he's the 2nd D taken? They have eyes over there and undoubtedly access to endless film.
We get all the high-end snippets that percolate all the positives.
We're going to find out, for sure.
Saginaw took it to London tonight, 6-2 to make the series 2-1 London. Saginaw hosts the Memorial Cup this year. Both teams are loaded. Parekh with 2 assists tonight, primary and secondary. Could be a great series. Lots of prospects and draft eligibles.
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21 minutes ago, The_People1 said:
Would you rather take Dickinson or Buium?
And there it is. lol
So hard to distinguish between leagues. The NCAA was always kinda, yeah, whatever, but now it's going through amazing growth.
I'd likely stick with Dickinson, simply due to where he is and how much hockey he's playing, but I have zero against Buium. I assume both are still growing physically also, so that's a wash.
Dickinson is just so refined defensively, and I expect his O game to march forward, pretty much like an afterthought.
Buium is slick, fast and always a step ahead. Dickinson is more nuts and bolts, he could play that way, I assume.
Buium came from very specific "role" upbringings with the programs (Shattuck/USNTDP) he's been in, Dickinson has been more rounded out to do a bit of everything, regardless of situation.
Honestly, it's pretty much a saw off. So I'll err on the side of the Dman with better D mechanics that I'm certain will D vs the other team's best without being overwhelmed.
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56 minutes ago, cberg said:
I appreciate your perspective especially since you are watching them actively. In my limited viewing and readings, it seems to me there are better puck handling D, and ones with a higher vision/IQ. Contrasting that Dickinson may be the most rounded. Thoughts?
I doubt Dickinson is really behind anyone in that regard. Bear in mind, London wants Bonk to be their offensive d-man catalyst, which is fine and the right call. He's D+1 and a 1st rd pick. Dickinson plays the all-roles D-first guy. Bonk will graduate next year, Dickinson will be their 1D. His numbers will go way up offensively. He's a pretty finished product. The skating is exceptional. All 4 directions. The D play is top shelf, he rarely gets caught out of position.
It seems people complain about his offence. They shouldn't. He's just doing as he's told. If they're down a goal and 'ol Dale cuts him loose, he's a very big problem. He could maybe work on his shot some, but he's still maturing physically. Kind of like, "well sure, every kid needs to". The mental and IQ part, he is a significant player.
Dale will put him into PP QB next year, expect more O. I say, look out. This guy is near the perfect package of D play, skating, puck-moving and creativity.
He's drawing Pietrangelo comps for good reason. He's really solid at everything.
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2 hours ago, The_People1 said:
Agreed. I know the Flames have traded for some D prospects and Brzy Looks good but we could use more RHS RD in the system. Henry Mews and Charlie Elick could be available with the Canuck's 1st.
I kind of wonder how far Pulkkinen can fall as an overager. If you take a dman first, I might be inclined to take Misa with the Van pick. Or Beaudoin if there's enough noise there. I have little doubt we'll be in on Michael Misa next year. Maybe buy the set. lol
At our 2nd rder @ 41, there are going to still be some pretty promising dmen.
It would be near impossible to not consider Wallenius, Freij or Mews at mid-to-late 20's though. That's going to be a really difficult pick to decide on. BPA is good and well, but there are 6 positions on the ice. So a best C and a best D are not the same category. So it's kind of a cop-out.
I think you pretty much have to have some form of projection for next year also. Like, what strengths do this year's draft have vs 2025 and vice versa.
Let's face it, we need everything, so it won't get solved in one draft.
All I know is, it's just nice to have these conversations, because we haven't traded our picks away. Such a breath of fresh air.
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6 minutes ago, conundrumed said:
I think that it is more that they like to give the older players the seat, knowing the younger ones will have more opportunities. I would say the US also operates this way. Only a Bedard changes that.
Should also add that I'm watching a lot of Dickinson and O'Reilly. The Knights are up 2-0 in the Conference Final.
Oliver Bonk QBs London's PP. Next year, Dickinson will. Just more graduating stuff. Dickinson and O'Reilly will likely explode next year as the other guys graduate. The other guys are mainly 1st and 2nd rders, so the Hunter's run a pretty tight grad process. Rarely a year the Knights aren't solid. It's annoying. lol
Dickinson pretty much never makes D-mistakes. Always in position and head on a swivel. The comp he's drawing is Pietrangelo. O'Reilly's pulling jacknife duty at C, occasionally RW. PK C, 2nd PP unit. Bouncing between lines 2 and 3. Plays hard every shift. I'd put Beaudoin ahead of him currently. But if that's the type of C you want in your system from rd 2 or 3, I'd say you can't go wrong with either as a mid C with a chance of untapped potential.
I really like that both already understand the 200' game really well. For me, that can be the hardest one to teach: create offence from defence. The best teams are doing exactly that. The downfall of the Leafs imho.
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37 minutes ago, cberg said:
That would be a tough one, with Tij still on the board. I’d have to keep telling myself “D wins championships”.
So, btw, you claim he’s the best Canadian D but why did he not make the WJC this year, and who beat him out?
I think that it is more that they like to give the older players the seat, knowing the younger ones will have more opportunities. I would say the US also operates this way. Only a Bedard changes that.
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Just read a mock-up with Levshunov going 4th, then the D run starts at 6th and ends at 9th with us taking Dickinson. That would be fantastic. Tij goes to NJ next at 10th...
Outside of Levshunov, I have little doubt Dickinson will become the 2nd best D in this class. He's been the best CDN dman in his age group for a couple of years now. They honestly should have taken him to the WJC this year.
Another year in London, then if he has reached physical maturity, he could foreseeably make the Flames/be a call-up as a 20yo.
edit
Also thinking that maybe the Flames should be attempting to use 2 of their first 3 picks at D.
I really don't want to hear, "high risk, high reward in their first 5 picks". That saying is so askew. More accurately: "High Risk, No Reward". Letourneau and Parascak come to mind. I just don't get the reasoning. If you have so many deficiencies in your game or competition level is so low, that is a lot more than "high risk". There is a point where a moderate risk (Eiserman, Hemming) increases to "impossible odds".
So if we take a C not named Celebrini or Helenius, I really hope that it's Beaudoin or O'Reilly. Both are solid all-around players with upside. Not, "boy, if this guy puts it all together". They generally don't. Having to play the right way will usually negate what made you enticing. We've had prospects like that. They get angry and stamp their feet, if I recall correctly.
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1 hour ago, Thebrewcrew said:
Tij has helped his draft stock. I don’t think he will be there at 9. Likely best case scenario for the Flames
It's McKenna setting everyone up and driving play. Tij's been okay. I wouldn't say great. Ritchie's been really good. Aitcheson has looked pretty solid. Martone is a giant pita. lol Ex-Sting, traded last year for their big disappointing run.
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1 hour ago, robrob74 said:
read an article by editor in leaf... that site based trereliving all year on signing Reaves, but in the article I just read was praising him in the playoffs as being super impactful, like the only thing working for them... if that's the case there is a lot more wrong with the team.
they'll find out Marner is super injured. Nylander still injured...
That's why Reaves was out slack-assing on the 1st and 3rd goals. lol
Do they even watch hockey?
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11 hours ago, cberg said:
Waiting several years is a challenge, but should be the normal expectation.
The Wings have some really great prospects. The wait is painful.
Only Seider and Raymond barged right in within 2 years.
Anticipation kinda sucks.
Danielson looked fantastic in camp last year. Piques the enthusiasm. Then in 2 yrs, it'll be, "Satoshi Nakamoto, I forgot we had him". lol
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5 hours ago, travel_dude said:
I was thinking Dellandrea, who isn't really getting top 6 duty.
Not my first choicem but better than giving Mange away.
Dallas has cost control on a developing prospect, vs a 3rd liner at $5.8. Can't see it working out. @cross16 likely correct. Mangiapane has become a salary dump. Painful, but probably true. Also murmurs of his unhappiness, as ironic as that sounds.
Some days, my hopes exceed reality. Hate to see so much time invested turn into such promise and then come crashing down. At the end of the day, we have...hmmm, let's see, do the math...carry the 1 over....okay. Zero large, physical wingers. Coleman the only one that's close. Leading scorer...imagine that!
Maybe $5.8 can buy one?
edit
Okay, Pospisil. He's making inroads being one. He's kinda proving what we lack.
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1 hour ago, Thebrewcrew said:
Amazing how the Bruins continue to own the Leafs. No more Bergeron or Chara and they still can’t win.
I'm glad they stayed with Swayman. He is clearly in the Leafs heads, and has been all year.
I kinda wonder if it wouldn't have been a sweep already.
Boston may need Ullmark at some point, but that point isn't now.
Still impressed as heck with Boston's 3rd line. They're a handful for any team, I think.
Leafs continue to play Reaves, Brodie on LD. Wow. Coach much?
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24 minutes ago, cberg said:
PS: Great Stromgren game-winning goal for the Wranglers last night.
He's coming along, I think. I feel like he's our most under-rated. He was drafted on potential. He really hasn't had compelling ice-time for a few years. Only 21 in a few months. It seems sometimes that people are mad at him. lol
Hey, I'll take a solid mid-line LW all day in the 2nd rd. Knowing I'm waiting 5 years. I think he's going through growth atm. He has the size and ability, just have to wait out the maturity, like most prospects.
Mind you, I really liked Ronni too and saw him live a few times. Ouch.
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28 minutes ago, cberg said:
So, I’m interpreting these 5 are your first ledge, albeit Celebrini might be at the top by himself, with little risk they will make it. I’m guessing the next ledge would include several players, eg Catton and Silyov, others(?) who might make my criteria but there are too many unknowns, or too much risk they ever get there? Continuing down the list the players either will never make it to that level, or perhaps are so late developing or have too many current warts/attributes, ie poor skating (Eiserman) that the risk/probability of achieving that high of a ceiling is unreasonably high (ie Gaudreau?)….
I’m trying to think through the likelihood of multiple top level hits the Flames might have, and how and whether that impact’s potential trades?
of course, this is only top level players, hockey is a massively team sport and lower level players can be just as important to success, or lack thereof, looking at you TML.
I have not watched Russians this year, so my opinion is virtually zero. Whereas last year I watched a fair few with Michkov and Simashev. Just in reading, I don't think the top 2 this year are as good as the top 2 last year.
Artamonov seems like a total wildcard for where he might land.
As far as the Flames, I'd say they have 5 really solid bullets in the chamber. They should come away with a nice mix of skill and potential. Potential is definitely the most under-rated quality, as your trying to project guys 3-4 yrs out.
Jiri Fischer's kid, Lukas, comes to mind. Plays for the Sting. He's an honest 6'3" right now, but is likely not done growing. Chances are better than avg that he'll top out at least 6'5". That would change the dynamic of his ranking right now. So they say he's raw. He has great skills, but it's expected that he's still growing. He likely won't be around at the Dallas pick, but I'd give him heavy consideration if he was.
Because there is a lot of potential there, and lineage, of course plays into it. Jiri's like 6'6" and his older bro is 6'7" if I remember correctly.
So it's pretty fickle between what a kid is now vs @ 23yo.
I don't envy NHL scouts, it's such a fine line.
For the record, I still think Kerins and Stromgren are our best prospects. People tend to write things off way too early. I also think Sam Morton is a sneaky good add. Older, but hey, if he wants to be a bottom 6 C at 26-27, I'm all for it.
You can't just have 4 top 2 dmen in a cap world, or you better be deciding which ones to trade to boost other areas that will undoubtedly be weaknesses.
Look no further than the Leafs and Oilers. You can be very O-centic if you like, but you're going to have big problems with D-centric teams and stellar goalies. A big problem.
Kind of obvious, I know. You need to account for more than potential stars when drafting.
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1 hour ago, cberg said:
Question for all you draft experts: How many players in this draft have a realistic/possible ceiling of a/ Top Line, b/ Top Pair D, c/Starting Goalie? Who are they? How many in the 1st Round?
Celebrini, of course. Helenius, Levshunov, Buium and Dickinson are virtually nails for me. Helenius should be a 1C, Levshunov a 1D, Dickinson and Buium at least top 2.
Levshunov is on another planet, honestly.
I can't speak for the Russians at all, I've seen so little of them. I'd just be the internet echo chamber. I've liked Helenius for a long time now. Aho-potential for me. Elite IQ and very good everything else. Gotta be a 2C floor. I'd love us to take him, if not a dman.
He takes virtually zero time to be noticeable in good ways.
I think Levshunov is the most NHL-ready. He is built like a brick Satoshi Nakamotohouse. I could see him with Anaheim next year. 2 years in NA. The guy's a frigging freak of nature. USHL was nothing, NCAA was nothing. This cat, I doubt anyone even knows his ceiling. It's wild that he arrived from Belarus and just took over in virtually no time. Are we sure this guy's only 18? lol
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1 hour ago, robrob74 said:
tough call. How many times has any one here actually watched any of the prospects? How many times live in person?
as 18 year olds they can be ahead right now but then drop off the face if the earth once they go pro.
To me, and this is going off of radio announcers, conversations here, this draft is D heavy. After some top forwards there might be a handful of top/middle sixers? My bet it is closer to the Poirier and Klimchuk draft. Either way in many deep drafts teams still miss on players and draft guys who don't make it.
TSN is covering the U18's right now, early, early morn for you Western folks. A LOT of high level prospects playing.
I'm currently watching the US vs Norway. 5-1 in the 2nd. Eiserman with 2, will likely start the tourney with B2B hatties. But they have a world of prospects. Stiga, Humphreys, Bednark, Connolly, Hagens, Hutson, Emery, on and on.
edit:
1? What? 5-0. lol
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On 4/25/2024 at 5:15 PM, The_People1 said:
I guess what disappoints me the most is that he said "Dallas" but Dallas didn't win a Cup. So are we mimicking models that bounce back into the playoffs quickly but don't necessarily win Cups? But ya, maybe DAL wins a Cup here this year. Still possible. We shall see.
Every good team is the flavour of the month sometimes. Next month we'll be hitching our wagon to the Avs build, because that's what everyone wants to hear.
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7 minutes ago, cberg said:
Don’t know either of them, take your word for it. The more I search, and comments it seems there are many good talents well beyond the top of the first round. Maybe warts, but that’s what the next couple of years are for. Huge potential for the Flames to utilize the extra picks.
Exactly! The fun REALLY starts after our first pick. Can't wait to see what we walk away with.
Tij popped a shorty and a PP marker today. I'm surprised no one has mentioned it. lol Canada looks good, outside of taking a world of penalties. Greentree's on the 3rd line, showing off his great D play. Calm as all get out.
Looks like Canada will take the division after dispatching Sweden and the Chechs.
2 blowout games left - Sunday and Monday, then into the playoffs. Lots of good players on most teams.
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8 hours ago, cberg said:
Kind of reminds me of Monahan in his draft year. Bad team, shot and can score but not at all dynamic... Think Flames need to shoot higher. From the report, if he does really well he might be able to become an average NHL skater. Yikes.
I think you're over-amplifying it.
QuoteHe is one of the more intelligent prospects coming out of the OHL this year and has proven to be the best draft year forward in the league. He uses the threat of his shot in combination with his hands to play make for his teammates. While he may not be the most technically gifted skater, he is still pacey and is able to create separation with cut-back and has a quick first step.
He's not the same as Monahan. The OHL is also the top CHL league, so the habit can be underrating OHL forwards when considering guys like Johnson, Evangelista, Cuylie, Robertson, Thomas, Kyrou draft positions.
Both Greentree and Misa have appeared underrated to me on most lists.
I think maybe if you really wanted Catton's play-style, but he's taken, Misa would be the next guy on that plane.
2024 NHL draft - A New Hope
in Flames Talk
Posted
A nice camera pan to Conny and Iggy at the Swiss vs Sweden u18 game. They pointed out how fitting it is that Iggy's sitting on Conroy's right. lol
I wonder if Tanguay is sitting on Yzerman's left?