Is this the final run?

[jjgallow]

7 minutes ago, pikey7883 said:

The only way this makes sense, is maybe moving BT to a president of hockey role, and then having Futa as GM, but this looks and sounds like click bait. Even with Sutter / Futa history.

 

Good.   Because his record is spotty.

[kehatch]

Our D is average, with the potential to be good. 

 

Tanev was one of the best shut down D in the league last season. Hanafin is a good 3D already, but had the potential to grow. Andersson had a belated sophomore slump but I expect to see him take a step forward. Valamaki really responded to Sutter in the final 10 games. Zadarov will be good under Sutter. I think Mackey raises some eye brows this season (in a good way). 

 

We are missing that elite number 1 guy and I am not convinced any of the young guys will become that type of player. But the D is deep and well balanced. 

[jjgallow]

5 hours ago, kehatch said:

Our D is average, with the potential to be good. 

 

Tanev was one of the best shut down D in the league last season. Hanafin is a good 3D already, but had the potential to grow. Andersson had a belated sophomore slump but I expect to see him take a step forward. Valamaki really responded to Sutter in the final 10 games. Zadarov will be good under Sutter. I think Mackey raises some eye brows this season (in a good way). 

 

We are missing that elite number 1 guy and I am not convinced any of the young guys will become that type of player. But the D is deep and well balanced. 

 

If you are right about this, then all my previous doom and gloom will be for nothing.   It is the most central basis of my whole arguement.

 

But... if we come to the draft picking in the top 10, it won't be because we need another LW.

[kehatch]

48 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

If you are right about this, then all my precious doom and gloom will be for nothing.   It is the most central basis of my whole arguement.

 

But... if we come to the draft picking in the top 10, it won't be because we need another LW.

 

I don't get the doom and gloom to be honest. The Flames weren't a bottom 10 team last season and I don't think they should have a big drop off this season. 

 

Will they be better then mediocre? Maybe not. But I don't think they are going to be terrible. 

[jjgallow]

3 hours ago, kehatch said:

 

I don't get the doom and gloom to be honest. The Flames weren't a bottom 10 team last season and I don't think they should have a big drop off this season. 

 

Will they be better then mediocre? Maybe not. But I don't think they are going to be terrible. 

 

I'm pretty confident that 2 years ago, if someone had said we'd be picking 12th overall, it would be considered doom and gloom.    

 

Imho you don't need a big dropoff from here to justify a rebuild/rethink.

 

But I don't actually consider that a doom/gloom scenario, that's true

[kehatch]

3 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

I'm pretty confident that 2 years ago, if someone had said we'd be picking 12th overall, it would be considered doom and gloom.    

 

Imho you don't need a big dropoff from here to justify a rebuild/rethink.

 

But I don't actually consider that a doom/gloom scenario, that's true

 

12 isn't a doom or gloom scenario, and is pretty consistent to where the Flames could pick. Since 2016-17 we have finished 16, 20, 2, 19, 20. Outside of the 2018/19 anomoly, we have been pretty consistent.

 

To this point, the Flames haven't done anything to get significantly worse, and the team is young. It's a big leap to "catch up" to the bottom teams whom are actively rebuilding, especially for more then one season. 

 

As long as the Flames spend to the cap and maintain their young core we will be in the mix for a playoff spot and will most likely continue to finish in the 20-10 range.

[jjgallow]

35 minutes ago, kehatch said:

 

12 isn't a doom or gloom scenario, and is pretty consistent to where the Flames could pick. Since 2016-17 we have finished 16, 20, 2, 19, 20. Outside of the 2018/19 anomoly, we have been pretty consistent.

 

To this point, the Flames haven't done anything to get significantly worse, and the team is young. It's a big leap to "catch up" to the bottom teams whom are actively rebuilding, especially for more then one season. 

 

As long as the Flames spend to the cap and maintain their young core we will be in the mix for a playoff spot and will most likely continue to finish in the 20-10 range.

 

We have different standards here and I'm going to be completely honest, I think most of the fanbase is disgusted with picking 12th overall (missing the playoffs by a decent margin).    I would like to think/hope that the players are as well.    To your point, I'm not sure if the organisation is.  It's possible they're secretly happy as long as we're within shot of the playoff hunt.     I doubt Sutter is included in that though.   

 

Picking 12th means you're losing more than winning.  As you alluded to earlier, unless players are "cool" with that, they will be less inclined to stay here.   We already saw some hints of that this year, and we did in fact lose one player (Bennett) who should/could have been a core player.   Bennett is a Known playoff performer through his whole career.  Gio didn't fight it much, and we know about Tkachuk etc.  Gotta be honest, those are three players you don't want walking out the door.  Especially for the return we were given.

Now....if your players Are "cool" with it, well you have even a bigger problem.   Simply put, if a core has valuable NHL players and can't win more than it loses, said core typically self destructs.

 

The players we want on this team are not into golf during the playoffs.   Quite frankly I don't blame them.

 

Not much I say on here sides with the majority.   This is different though.   If they do it another season, or even slightly worse, it's just not going to fly.

 

ps...we aren't young, even after Gio left, we're just average.   With below average size.  When I look at the talent distribution I do see an age-related decline coming and the #1 reason is we have nothing in the pipeline.
https://www.eliteprospects.com/league/nhl/teams-physical-stats/2019-2020

[kehatch]

10 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

We have different standards here and I'm going to be completely honest, I think most of the fanbase is disgusted with picking 12th overall (missing the playoffs by a decent margin).    I would like to think/hope that the players are as well.    To your point, I'm not sure if the organisation is.  It's possible they're secretly happy as long as we're within shot of the playoff hunt.     I doubt Sutter is included in that though.   

 

Picking 12th means you're losing more than winning.  As you alluded to earlier, unless players are "cool" with that, they will be less inclined to stay here.   We already saw some hints of that this year, and we did in fact lose one player (Bennett) who should/could have been a core player.   Bennett is a Known playoff performer through his whole career.  Gio didn't fight it much, and we know about Tkachuk etc.  Gotta be honest, those are three players you don't want walking out the door.  Especially for the return we were given.

Now....if your players Are "cool" with it, well you have even a bigger problem.   Simply put, if a core has valuable NHL players and can't win more than it loses, said core typically self destructs.

 

The players we want on this team are not into golf during the playoffs.   Quite frankly I don't blame them.

 

Not much I say on here sides with the majority.   This is different though.   If they do it another season, or even slightly worse, it's just not going to fly.

 

ps...we aren't young, even after Gio left, we're just average.   With below average size.  When I look at the talent distribution I do see an age-related decline coming and the #1 reason is we have nothing in the pipeline.
https://www.eliteprospects.com/league/nhl/teams-physical-stats/2019-2020

 

I didn't suggest that finishing 20 is fine, or that the Flames are the youngest team in the league.  I said that there isn't anything to indicate the Flames are all of a sudden going to have a steep drop off and start picking bottom 5. Not while they are spending to the cap and still have a core in their 20s.  And as long as the Flames continue to be in that scenario, ownership won't sign off on a rebuild.  Especially this ownership who have shown the reluctance to rebuild previously.  

[jjgallow]

11 minutes ago, kehatch said:

 

I didn't suggest that finishing 20 is fine, or that the Flames are the youngest team in the league.  I said that there isn't anything to indicate the Flames are all of a sudden going to have a steep drop off and start picking bottom 5. Not while they are spending to the cap and still have a core in their 20s.  And as long as the Flames continue to be in that scenario, ownership won't sign off on a rebuild.  Especially this ownership who have shown the reluctance to rebuild previously.  

 

It just doesn't have anything to do with the owners.    The owners will announce that a rebuild is their plan once they are backed into a corner and have no choice, as they have done in the past.   Nobody except the Oilers says "right, these 4 years we've pencilled in as a rebuild in our 10 year plan".   Even the Oilers, you could argue Pronger's wife scheduled it.  It wasn't an age thing.

 

These guys aren't on contract much longer and their trade value has a halving-rate of 3 months now, with nothing significant coming through our pipeline.  Finishing where we did last year is not going to be enough to extend those contracts, or get any kind of trade value back.    On top of that I do think we got worse over the offseason.   We are going to feel the Gio void.

[kehatch]

16 minutes ago, jjgallow said:

 

It just doesn't have anything to do with the owners.    The owners will announce that a rebuild is their plan once they are backed into a corner and have no choice, as they have done in the past.   Nobody except the Oilers says "right, these 4 years we've pencilled in as a rebuild in our 10 year plan".   Even the Oilers, you could argue Pronger's wife scheduled it.  It wasn't an age thing.

 

These guys aren't on contract much longer and their trade value has a halving-rate of 3 months now, with nothing significant coming through our pipeline.  Finishing where we did last year is not going to be enough to extend those contracts, or get any kind of trade value back.    On top of that I do think we got worse over the offseason.   We are going to feel the Gio void.

 

The ownership still has a bunch of moves left before they have to rebuild. This season they are giving Sutter the types of players they want to see what he can do with this core.  If that doesn't work they can fire the GM, or they can trade a core player or two in a hockey trade.  

 

Sure, if none of that works and they can't extend Gaudreau / Monahan doesn't recover from his surgery / Tkachuk refuses to sign or falls off / the young D doesn't materialize then maybe we see a string of three or four seasons of missed playoffs and ownership is forced into a rebuild.  But these things aren't particularly likely, and even if they occur a rebuild isn't going to start overnight.  

 

For now this is a mid 20s team that is in the playoff mix every season, and there is very little reason to believe that won't continue to occur for at least the next few seasons.  

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, kehatch said:

 

The ownership still has a bunch of moves left before they have to rebuild. This season they are giving Sutter the types of players they want to see what he can do with this core.  If that doesn't work they can fire the GM, or they can trade a core player or two in a hockey trade.  

 

Sure, if none of that works and they can't extend Gaudreau / Monahan doesn't recover from his surgery / Tkachuk refuses to sign or falls off / the young D doesn't materialize then maybe we see a string of three or four seasons of missed playoffs and ownership is forced into a rebuild.  But these things aren't particularly likely, and even if they occur a rebuild isn't going to start overnight.  

 

For now this is a mid 20s team that is in the playoff mix every season, and there is very little reason to believe that won't continue to occur for at least the next few seasons.  

 

I agree that we are a mid 20s team, I have is pegged for around 25th overall.

We weren't very close the playoffs last season and we got worse since then so I do not see how we are in that mix.

 

Anyway

 

If Valimaki and co on defense do far better than I am anticipating, we'll be in the playoffs, yes.

[robrob74]

3 hours ago, kehatch said:

 

12 isn't a doom or gloom scenario, and is pretty consistent to where the Flames could pick. Since 2016-17 we have finished 16, 20, 2, 19, 20. Outside of the 2018/19 anomoly, we have been pretty consistent.

 

To this point, the Flames haven't done anything to get significantly worse, and the team is young. It's a big leap to "catch up" to the bottom teams whom are actively rebuilding, especially for more then one season. 

 

As long as the Flames spend to the cap and maintain their young core we will be in the mix for a playoff spot and will most likely continue to finish in the 20-10 range.

imagine if the league went on league placement and we would have made the playoffs only twice in that scenario. 
 

but I agree with you. We will always be in the mix to the end.

[jjgallow]

Maybe what we need is a more positive rebuild thread.    

 

We had one...back at the start of the last rebuild in the 2013 era.

 

"Blow it up" and the less offensive "final run" are still making people mad lol.

 

See when I think of a rebuild, I think if hope and promise and chance to get things right, unlimited potential.  A blank slate.    And I see the Stanley cup much nearer.    When I think if "win now", I think of just garbage hockey we force ourselves to watch even though it's aweful out of some deep seeded unconscious obligation to be loyal.

 

But if you're loyal, why do you care if we have a rough patch and rebuild a great team?

 

That I never really understood.    "Win Now" to me is self-inflicted pain caused by a sense of urgency.   "We can't save some money or finish our education to have kids we Need to Have the Kids Now to show each other how in Love we Are".   "Win Now".  lol.

 

Thinking on this.