On Pace For

[ABC923]

I like stats, so I thought I would post a little thread with some on pace stats for players I find interesting just to see if the eye test matches the score sheets.

All stats are after game 29 of the season, with 53 to go.

 

Gaudreau: Pts: 105, Goals: 34, 40 PP Points.  Previous Career Highs were 78 points, 30 goals, 21 PP points.  

Monahan: Goals: 48, Points: 85, 17 GWG  Previous Best: 31 Goals, 63 Points, 8 GWG.  

Ferland: Goals: 32, Points: 46, PIM:21  Previous Best: Goals: 15, Points: 25, PIM: 50

 

This line is on fire all around.  Can they sustain it?  I think not quite, but expect all three to set career highs in most categories.  SM is becoming one of the best snipers in the game, and one of the most clutch.

 

Backlund: Goals: 20, Points: 51.  Previous Best: 22 Goals, 53 Points. 

Tkachuk: Goals: 12, Points: 50.  Previous Best: Goals: 13, Points: 48

Frolik: Goals: 14, Points: 31.  Previous Best: Goals: 19, Points: 44

 

There is a perception that the 3M line is not producing as much offense this year.  The truth is the only player sliding is Frolik.  Both Backlund and Tkachuk are on pace to roughly equal their career highs from last year, while Frolik is scoring at about 3/4 the pace from his career high from last season.

 

Brodie: Points: 45, +/-: -25, Minutes: 24:27, Corsi: 49.5% .  Previous Best: Points:45, +/-: +15.        Career Avg: Minutes: 23:01, Corsi: 49.6%

Hamonic: Points: 9, +/-: -18, Minutes: 20:07, Corsi: 49.3%.  Previous Best: Points: 33, +/-: +15       Career Avg: Minutes: 22:31, Corsi: 48.7%

 

A lot has been said for how bad this pairing has been this year.  But if we look at just Brodie, we see he is on pace to tie his previous best in points, and has a corsi bang on his career avg.  The only notable stat difference is plus minus, and while it is atrocious, aside from two years spent as Giordano's partner prior to the arrival of Hamilton, Brodie has always been a minus player.  An argument could be made that he has almost always been the player he is this season, but that Gio made him better.  Hamonic on the other hand is on pace for his worst statistical year from an offensive standpoint, but is doing better defensively.  His Corsi is up, and last season he racked up a -21 rating in just 49 games played compared to the projected -18 over 79 games played.  He's hitting a bit more than last season (but less than 2-3 seasons ago) but blocking fewer shots.  He's always been a negative player in the Give-away/Take-Away measure.  His PDO is only around 97%, which the fancy stats people will tell you means he has some bad luck and is due to progress a bit.  But he always has low PDO so... Anyway, maybe we are getting more or less what we should have expected from this pairing.

[MAC331]

46 minutes ago, ABC923 said:

I like stats, so I thought I would post a little thread with some on pace stats for players I find interesting just to see if the eye test matches the score sheets.

All stats are after game 29 of the season, with 53 to go.

 

Gaudreau: Pts: 105, Goals: 34, 40 PP Points.  Previous Career Highs were 78 points, 30 goals, 21 PP points.  

Monahan: Goals: 48, Points: 85, 17 GWG  Previous Best: 31 Goals, 63 Points, 8 GWG.  

Ferland: Goals: 32, Points: 46, PIM:21  Previous Best: Goals: 15, Points: 25, PIM: 50

 

This line is on fire all around.  Can they sustain it?  I think not quite, but expect all three to set career highs in most categories.  SM is becoming one of the best snipers in the game, and one of the most clutch.

 

Backlund: Goals: 20, Points: 51.  Previous Best: 22 Goals, 53 Points. 

Tkachuk: Goals: 12, Points: 50.  Previous Best: Goals: 13, Points: 48

Frolik: Goals: 14, Points: 31.  Previous Best: Goals: 19, Points: 44

 

There is a perception that the 3M line is not producing as much offense this year.  The truth is the only player sliding is Frolik.  Both Backlund and Tkachuk are on pace to roughly equal their career highs from last year, while Frolik is scoring at about 3/4 the pace from his career high from last season.

 

Brodie: Points: 45, +/-: -25, Minutes: 24:27, Corsi: 49.5% .  Previous Best: Points:45, +/-: +15.        Career Avg: Minutes: 23:01, Corsi: 49.6%

Hamonic: Points: 9, +/-: -18, Minutes: 20:07, Corsi: 49.3%.  Previous Best: Points: 33, +/-: +15       Career Avg: Minutes: 22:31, Corsi: 48.7%

 

A lot has been said for how bad this pairing has been this year.  But if we look at just Brodie, we see he is on pace to tie his previous best in points, and has a corsi bang on his career avg.  The only notable stat difference is plus minus, and while it is atrocious, aside from two years spent as Giordano's partner prior to the arrival of Hamilton, Brodie has always been a minus player.  An argument could be made that he has almost always been the player he is this season, but that Gio made him better.  Hamonic on the other hand is on pace for his worst statistical year from an offensive standpoint, but is doing better defensively.  His Corsi is up, and last season he racked up a -21 rating in just 49 games played compared to the projected -18 over 79 games played.  He's hitting a bit more than last season (but less than 2-3 seasons ago) but blocking fewer shots.  He's always been a negative player in the Give-away/Take-Away measure.  His PDO is only around 97%, which the fancy stats people will tell you means he has some bad luck and is due to progress a bit.  But he always has low PDO so... Anyway, maybe we are getting more or less what we should have expected from this pairing.

Interesting stuff ABC. The Ferland situation on that line will be telling for sure.

The other forwards situation that shows my thinking is that Tkachuk is going to waste on the 3M line. We will need a whole other scoring line to evolve from this season. Backlund and Frolik are what they are and if we could get an average of 3 - 20 goal players we would be doing fine from them.

I know everyone has been down on Brodie and Hamonic but I think you have to give them the entire season and then evaluate.

[travel_dude]

The on pace concept doesn't mean too much at 29 games in.

It's fun to see where they could end up based on how they have played so far, but really we have played a lot of games against teams that we won't play again.

Not much against the Central and Pacific.  Too many teams that smother offense to say that JH will get over 100 points.  Also, the more games like we played against the Canadians, the less he will generate.  

 

I think Brodie's points will start to suffer as he gets reeled in or loses minutes on the PP.  His +/- will probably increase though.

I also think that Hamonic will end up with more than 9, as he starts getting used in a slightly different role.  

 

Look at it this way, Stajan is on pace for zero points.  Brouwer is on pace for 3 goals.

 

[cccsberg]

15 hours ago, travel_dude said:

The on pace concept doesn't mean too much at 29 games in.

It's fun to see where they could end up based on how they have played so far, but really we have played a lot of games against teams that we won't play again.

Not much against the Central and Pacific.  Too many teams that smother offense to say that JH will get over 100 points.  Also, the more games like we played against the Canadians, the less he will generate.  

 

I think Brodie's points will start to suffer as he gets reeled in or loses minutes on the PP.  His +/- will probably increase though.

I also think that Hamonic will end up with more than 9, as he starts getting used in a slightly different role.  

 

Look at it this way, Stajan is on pace for zero points.  Brouwer is on pace for 3 goals.

 

The concept is fine, even with all the caveats.  Taking everything you mention into account, how about looking at current versus years past at the same point?

 

However you look at it, both Monahan and Gaudreau are having career years so far and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.  Speaking of projections, look at Mcdavid last year with 100 pts, but this year he probably won't make it, while multiple others, like Gaudreau are currently projecting as over 100 pts.  A lot of it depends on how the opposition plays you and with Mcdavid this year the mantra seems to be "stop Mcdavid, stop the Oilers..."  which is probably correct.  Look at Crosby too.  Some of these guys, like Crosby only rise to the occasion when needed the most so if the team is going ok their points are down.  Anyways, back to the Flames, Monahan and Gaudreau stand a much better chance of having great years if there are other lines also excelling, to spread out the D coverage.  With the Jankowski line coming along and 3M doing its thing there's a good chance Gaudreau will get his 100+ points as long as he stays healthy.

[travel_dude]

Hey, I'm not disputing JH or Mony having career years.  They are both blowing the doors of last season.  

The only players that fit the mold of the "on pace for x" calculation are ones that score on a consistent basis, and even then it depends on games played.

For JH, Mony, maybe Ferland, and Backs this seems to work out a bit more accurately.

 

JH just went through a 2 and a 3 game scoreless drought.  At 22 games he was 34 points, on pace for 126 points.      

[cccsberg]

22 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

Hey, I'm not disputing JH or Mony having career years.  They are both blowing the doors of last season.  

The only players that fit the mold of the "on pace for x" calculation are ones that score on a consistent basis, and even then it depends on games played.

For JH, Mony, maybe Ferland, and Backs this seems to work out a bit more accurately.

 

JH just went through a 2 and a 3 game scoreless drought.  At 22 games he was 34 points, on pace for 126 points.      

As the season goes on the scoring rates drop dramatically.  He’ll be lucky to get 100 pts at the end of the day.

[robrob74]

Let them have fun! It’s what being a fan is about and something I really enjoyed doing in my teens and early 20s.

 

of course on pace for isn’t a great measure, but it’s still fun for some. I don’t think they believe they’ll reach them, and some, like Bennett may get more if he can continue to produce now that he’s started...

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, robrob74 said:

Let them have fun! It’s what being a fan is about and something I really enjoyed doing in my teens and early 20s.

 

of course on pace for isn’t a great measure, but it’s still fun for some. I don’t think they believe they’ll reach them, and some, like Bennett may get more if he can continue to produce now that he’s started...

 

Fun is what half of these threads are for.  As a predictive tool, it leaves a lot to be desired, which is my only point.

 

What I found quite interesting was the NHLE (equivalent) that stats peeps use for guys in other leagues accurately predicted Gaudreau's NHL production his first year.  Here's the NHLE for our current crop of prospects.  The ones outside of the AHL are interesting, and probably what you expect.  Mangiapane's seems high, but we'll never know until he plays in the NHL.   

 

 https://flamesnation.ca/2017/12/05/flamesnation-prospect-update-eetu-brute/

[ABC923]

Just thought I would update this at the half-way point of the season, and see who is on pace for a strong season.

 

Great Season (A Grades)

Gaudreau: On pace for 92 points and plus 18, he's been outstanding.

Monahan: On pace for 38 goals, 76 points and a plus 20 rating, those are top tier center numbers right there.

Tkachuk: on pace for 20 goals and 53 points while leading the way in corsi (58%), simply amazing for a second year forward.  Underrated imho.

Ferland: On pace for 34 goals and 48 points, he's having a career year.  Would be nice to see a few more assist though...

Jankowski: On pace for 16 goals and 29 points while only averaging 13:42 per game, this is a pretty solid rookie season.

Smith: On pace for 34 wins and holds a .920 Sv% and 2.56 GAA.  Pretty good considering the lack of support he has received at times.

 

Good Season (B Grades)

Backlund: On pace for 16 goals and 50 points, this is Backlunds second most productive offensive season after last season.  Unfortunately the defensive effectiveness is down, on pace for a -18, the worst on the team and his worst since 2011-2012.

Giordano: On pace for 16 goals, 36 points, Gio's point totals are well down from his previous performances but similar to last year.  Still leads the blue line in offense this season, and has been on a tear lately, while leading the way in ice time.

Kulak: On pace for 9 points and a plus 7 rating, he does what he's asked and doesn't really stand out, a great thing for a 3rd pair defensman.  Finally sticking with the team.

Hathaway: On pace for 23 points and a plus 20, while driving possession at corsi=55%, more than I would have predicted.  Brings a nice physical edge.

Bennett: On pace for 32 points, Bennett has recovered nicely from a dreadful start.  Likely to finish with more points in my opinion.  Is third on the team in hits.

Brodie: On pace for 36 points, and a -14 rating, it's not Brodie's best season, but is equivalent to last season and ties for his 3rd best offensive season.  He plays the second most minutes on the team, and would be very hard to replace.  The only notable drop in his stat line is shooting percentage, half of his career avg.  Is also on pace for 64 takeaways, the second most for his career.

 

[MAC331]

17 minutes ago, ABC923 said:

Just thought I would update this at the half-way point of the season, and see who is on pace for a strong season.

 

Great Season (A Grades)

Gaudreau: On pace for 92 points and plus 18, he's been outstanding.

Monahan: On pace for 38 goals, 76 points and a plus 20 rating, those are top tier center numbers right there.

Tkachuk: on pace for 20 goals and 53 points while leading the way in corsi (58%), simply amazing for a second year forward.  Underrated imho.

Ferland: On pace for 34 goals and 48 points, he's having a career year.  Would be nice to see a few more assist though...

Jankowski: On pace for 16 goals and 29 points while only averaging 13:42 per game, this is a pretty solid rookie season.

Smith: On pace for 34 wins and holds a .920 Sv% and 2.56 GAA.  Pretty good considering the lack of support he has received at times.

 

Good Season (B Grades)

Backlund: On pace for 16 goals and 50 points, this is Backlunds second most productive offensive season after last season.  Unfortunately the defensive effectiveness is down, on pace for a -18, the worst on the team and his worst since 2011-2012.

Giordano: On pace for 16 goals, 36 points, Gio's point totals are well down from his previous performances but similar to last year.  Still leads the blue line in offense this season, and has been on a tear lately, while leading the way in ice time.

Kulak: On pace for 9 points and a plus 7 rating, he does what he's asked and doesn't really stand out, a great thing for a 3rd pair defensman.  Finally sticking with the team.

Hathaway: On pace for 23 points and a plus 20, while driving possession at corsi=55%, more than I would have predicted.  Brings a nice physical edge.

Bennett: On pace for 32 points, Bennett has recovered nicely from a dreadful start.  Likely to finish with more points in my opinion.  Is third on the team in hits.

Brodie: On pace for 36 points, and a -14 rating, it's not Brodie's best season, but is equivalent to last season and ties for his 3rd best offensive season.  He plays the second most minutes on the team, and would be very hard to replace.  The only notable drop in his stat line is shooting percentage, half of his career avg.  Is also on pace for 64 takeaways, the second most for his career.

 

What is the assessment for Hamilton ?

I would love to see Tkachuk moved to the Bennett/ Jankowski line.

[ABC923]

Part 2...

Mediocre Season (C Grades)

Troy Brouwer: On pace for 6 goals and 20 points.  While not what we hoped for, he plays the role we ask him to at this point.  Second on the team in hits, leads in PIMS. 

Dougie Hamilton: On pace for 10 goals and 34 points, with a +10 rating and second in corsi on the team, this sounds decent, but it's a huge drop from last season where he put up 50 points.  A lot of this is tied to the abysmal PP, but not all.  We need more from him.

Frolik: On pace for 31 points before the injury, this is a huge drop in production.  His physical game is also way down, on pace for 20 fewer hits than last season.  Still has solid possession numbers.

Stone: On pace for 4 goals and 6 points, this is Stone's worst season since his rookie campaign.  I only keep him in this category because he was brought in to play 3rd pairing minutes with limited PP time, so his numbers are down.  Still disappointing.

Lazar: On pace for 10 points, he's been unremarkable.  I leave him in this category because of the lack of minutes and the quality of linemates he's had to play with.

 

Bad Season (D to F)

Stajan: Has 1 point so far.  All offense has dried up with Stajan.  He does what we ask him to, but he isn't the player he once was, and wasn't great to begin with.  Still second in face off percentage.

Hamonic: On pace for 2 goals and 11 points.  This is Hamonics worst season of his career for offense.  He's on pace for 81 hits, the lowest total in his career outside of last season which was injury shortened.  Shot numbers are way down, and he plays a very low event game.  3rd pairing type of results.  On the plus side, his +/- is way up over last season, as is his corsi, so there is some hope for the future.

Bartkowski: Likely on pace for 2 points.  He's been replaced.

 

Others: Jagr and Versteeg.  I actually thought Jagr was okay when he played, but he can't stay healthy.  Versteeg was not having a great season, but without him our PP is useless.  Rittich has been doing well, but sample size is small.  Same with Mang.

[420since1974]

Thanks for the work you put into both your posts.

Regardless of how many people agree with your assessments, props on your effort.

[MAC331]

17 hours ago, 420since1974 said:

Thanks for the work you put into both your posts.

Regardless of how many people agree with your assessments, props on your effort.

I think what ABC has done is great and helps with the eye tests for the players during games.

[ABC923]

18 hours ago, 420since1974 said:

Thanks for the work you put into both your posts.

Regardless of how many people agree with your assessments, props on your effort.

 

1 hour ago, MAC331 said:

I think what ABC has done is great and helps with the eye tests for the players during games.

Thanks guys! 

[travel_dude]

14 minutes ago, ABC923 said:

 

Thanks guys! 

Props for doing the work.

 

It helps see where players could end up.

When Johnny had a draught, it drop his number to mid-90's.

A big 3 point night bumps it up.

Ferland is trending towards the numbers you first put up.  His current hot streak is bumping that up, but he should get close to 50 pts.  Monahan could reach mid-40's in goals.  It's the other guys that score in bunches or have hot streaks that make the predictions tough.

 

Whenever they get the PP working, you could see an increase on the top unit players.  It's tough since they are scoring once every 30-40 tries.  That is nuts.

[rocketdoctor]

21 hours ago, travel_dude said:

It helps see where players could end up.

When Johnny had a draught, it drop his number to mid-90's.

A big 3 point night bumps it up.

 

What is Johnny doing drinking beer on the bench and catching a cold!!

 

Draught

1.

a current of cool air in a room or other confined space.

"heavy curtains at the windows cut out draughts"

 

2.

a single act of drinking or inhaling.

"she downed the remaining beer in one draught"

 

Just ragging on you I know you meant drought!!

 

Anyways good post from ABC and confirms what the eye can see mainly.

 

Bit unfair to ask Stone to put up decent numbers when he is playing 3rd pair and not on the PP.   Take his PP pts away from his ARI stats and apart from one season he is thereabouts.

It confirms what we know - our top 4D have not been performing to expectations for the first half of the season.  Lets hope it picks up for the second half.

 

[ABC923]

Just thought I would revive this thread to have a quick peak at where our players are trending at the 1/4 mark of the season.

 

These five guys are killing it! 

Tkachuk: 44G, 56A, 100 Points

Monahan: 48G, 48A, 96 Points

Gaudreau: 28G, 68A, 96 Points

Lindholm: 44G, 44A, 88 Points

Gio: 8G, 72A, 80 Points

 

The drop after that is fairly steep...

Backlund: 12G, 24A, 36 Points

 

Another bright point: TJ Brodie.  On pace for only 4 goals and 24 points, but leads the team in +/-.  I know lots of people don't think much of +/-, but for a defender I think it's decent.  He's on pace to be a +40, a far cry from the deep minus he was last season.

 

Ryan is also having a decent enough season.  He may only be on pace for 8 goals and 20 points, but that's honestly not terrible 4th line production and a big step up from Stajan.

 

Guys I expect to up things are Backlund, Bennett (12G, 24 Point pace), and Neal (12G, 16 Point Pace).  Bennett seems to be flirting with taking a step, while the other two have a history of better performances in recent memory.  I'd include Janko (4G, 12 Point pace) too, but given the limited role he has been handed this season, it seems unlikely he will match last year's production at this rate, unless he and Neal really start to click.

 

Oh, and I know it won't happen, but if Gio keeps going like this he will deserve the Norris imo, but will be ignored mostly as people flock to Burns or Doughty or something.

 

[MAC331]

7 hours ago, ABC923 said:

Just thought I would revive this thread to have a quick peak at where our players are trending at the 1/4 mark of the season.

 

These five guys are killing it! 

Tkachuk: 44G, 56A, 100 Points

Monahan: 48G, 48A, 96 Points

Gaudreau: 28G, 68A, 96 Points

Lindholm: 44G, 44A, 88 Points

Gio: 8G, 72A, 80 Points

 

The drop after that is fairly steep...

Backlund: 12G, 24A, 36 Points

 

Another bright point: TJ Brodie.  On pace for only 4 goals and 24 points, but leads the team in +/-.  I know lots of people don't think much of +/-, but for a defender I think it's decent.  He's on pace to be a +40, a far cry from the deep minus he was last season.

 

Ryan is also having a decent enough season.  He may only be on pace for 8 goals and 20 points, but that's honestly not terrible 4th line production and a big step up from Stajan.

 

Guys I expect to up things are Backlund, Bennett (12G, 24 Point pace), and Neal (12G, 16 Point Pace).  Bennett seems to be flirting with taking a step, while the other two have a history of better performances in recent memory.  I'd include Janko (4G, 12 Point pace) too, but given the limited role he has been handed this season, it seems unlikely he will match last year's production at this rate, unless he and Neal really start to click.

 

Oh, and I know it won't happen, but if Gio keeps going like this he will deserve the Norris imo, but will be ignored mostly as people flock to Burns or Doughty or something.

 

Scoring and points will become more balanced out. I like the play of Brodie, Hamonic and the two rookies Andersson and Valimaki. We have the makings of a really good team here. Rittich has bolstered the net and we just need Smith to get back to respectable so it doesn't matter who plays. BP still needs to get the forward chemistry maxed out.

[cccsberg]

7 hours ago, ABC923 said:

Just thought I would revive this thread to have a quick peak at where our players are trending at the 1/4 mark of the season.

 

These five guys are killing it! 

Tkachuk: 44G, 56A, 100 Points

Monahan: 48G, 48A, 96 Points

Gaudreau: 28G, 68A, 96 Points

Lindholm: 44G, 44A, 88 Points

Gio: 8G, 72A, 80 Points

 

The drop after that is fairly steep...

Backlund: 12G, 24A, 36 Points

 

Another bright point: TJ Brodie.  On pace for only 4 goals and 24 points, but leads the team in +/-.  I know lots of people don't think much of +/-, but for a defender I think it's decent.  He's on pace to be a +40, a far cry from the deep minus he was last season.

 

Ryan is also having a decent enough season.  He may only be on pace for 8 goals and 20 points, but that's honestly not terrible 4th line production and a big step up from Stajan.

 

Guys I expect to up things are Backlund, Bennett (12G, 24 Point pace), and Neal (12G, 16 Point Pace).  Bennett seems to be flirting with taking a step, while the other two have a history of better performances in recent memory.  I'd include Janko (4G, 12 Point pace) too, but given the limited role he has been handed this season, it seems unlikely he will match last year's production at this rate, unless he and Neal really start to click.

 

Oh, and I know it won't happen, but if Gio keeps going like this he will deserve the Norris imo, but will be ignored mostly as people flock to Burns or Doughty or something.

 

Why did you skip over Frolik who already has 7 goals at less than a quarter season will project out at 30+ goals?

[cccsberg]

Hmmm, pretty good.  How many teams have 5 ppg players on their rosters?

[ABC923]

38 minutes ago, cccsberg said:

Why did you skip over Frolik who already has 7 goals at less than a quarter season will project out at 30+ goals?

I just listed the top 6 point getters, and the others like Neal and Bennett are guys I am looking at for improvement.  Frolik falls in the mushy middle so to speak, although he’s been really hot and cold this season.  Strange to see him with 0 assists too.  Currently projects to 28 goals and 28 points.

[ABC923]

Halfway Point of the season, so it's an easy time to update these numbers.  Here we go!

Top Performers (Not just raw totals, but guys having better than average years)

JG: 44G, 74 A, 118 Points, +34

SM: 44G, 56 A, 100 Points, +22

EL: 38G, 56A, 94 Points, +50

MT: 36G, 58A, 94 Points, +18

Gio: 12G, 64A, 74 Points, +54

 

Decent Performers (Guys doing a good to very good, but not outstanding job this year)

Janko: 12G, 20A, 32 Points, +10

Hanifin: 6G, 32A, 38 Points, + 10

Brodie: 8G, 22A, 30 Points, +38

Backlund: 16G, 24 A, 40 Points, +28 (lower production that normal, but not by a huge margin)

Hamonic: 6G, 18A, 24 Points, +25 (best season in the last 4)

 

Slackers (Guys I would expect more from)

Neal: 8G, 8A, 16 Points, -22

Bennett: 12G, 14A, 26 Points, +2 (given the minutes he receives, I expect more)

Frolik: 22G, 5A, 27 Points, +16 (Good goal scoring numbers, bad total points, hard to evaluate due to injuries and healthy scratches)

Ryan: 8G, 16A, 24 Points, -6 (not too disappointed, but with so few minuses on the team this year I was hoping for more from him)

 

Unlisted players are rookies and others who are doing fine given the ice time and role they have been asked to play for the most part.

[Thebrewcrew]

At this point if Neal and Bennett can reach  30 points I’m happy given the way the first half has played out for both of them

 

30 would represent the 2nd best season for Bennett points wise and for Neal

while it would be a down season for him, he is typically only 40-45 point guy so while it is a drop off, it wouldn’t be as severe as if he were only to finish with 15-20 points