So Where do we go from here? Analysis & Predictions

[cross16]

1 hour ago, conundrumed said:

I love Warrener. He's such a no BS guy and doesn't worry about hurting feelings.

 

 

I've really enjoyed his takes the last week or so and actually started downloading the show as a podcast. I think he's doing a really nice job of being real and honest about the Flames while balancing the impact of coaching vs players etc. He isn't picking 1 scapegoat, which I think is my biggest fear right now, and rather doing a really good job of breaking down where their season has gone from multiple view points.

 

Been great stuff. 

[Cowtownguy]

On March 8, 2018 at 2:30 PM, cross16 said:

 

I've really enjoyed his takes the last week or so and actually started downloading the show as a podcast. I think he's doing a really nice job of being real and honest about the Flames while balancing the impact of coaching vs players etc. He isn't picking 1 scapegoat, which I think is my biggest fear right now, and rather doing a really good job of breaking down where their season has gone from multiple view points.

 

Been great stuff. 

I find the collective intensity of the team rather unusual. We seem to be like the high school student who gets 51% on an exam and feels like they overstudied by 1%. We are always just a little behind. I am not quite sure how a team addresses that problem. In a league where teams are so close in talent, they must all struggle with that every night.

 

ETA: I like when they have Rob Ray on the show. That dude has issues. He recently stated that he was watching "Sexy Stewie Party" movies in his hotel room all day and that he was trying to go blind. 

[robrob74]

It baffles me, and always has, that we are practically a cap team and can’t ice a true playoff team or contender. 

 

I get, old contracts are eventually moving on, but there is Brouwer... Frolik is a touch overpaid. We are paying 1.5-2 million to Stone as a 3rd pair D. 

[MAC331]

12 hours ago, robrob74 said:

It baffles me, and always has, that we are practically a cap team and can’t ice a true playoff team or contender. 

 

I get, old contracts are eventually moving on, but there is Brouwer... Frolik is a touch overpaid. We are paying 1.5-2 million to Stone as a 3rd pair D. 

It has been stated numerous times that the Flames have paid to build in support in order to bring along a young core within a rebuilding process. You can take it back as far as Frolik being overpaid by 1M but this is the price you pay to attract UFAs to are rebuilding team. Keeping a Matt Stajan at 3.5M in order to maintain a good dressing room doesn't look smart to us fans but they deemed him necessary. BT hasn't made all the right moves (Brouwer) or (Stone) but he had his reasons thinking they would some how advance the team. I will be watching to see if he is smart enough to correct his own mistakes quickly for the benefit of the team.

[robrob74]

2 hours ago, MAC331 said:

It has been stated numerous times that the Flames have paid to build in support in order to bring along a young core within a rebuilding process. You can take it back as far as Frolik being overpaid by 1M but this is the price you pay to attract UFAs to are rebuilding team. Keeping a Matt Stajan at 3.5M in order to maintain a good dressing room doesn't look smart to us fans but they deemed him necessary. BT hasn't made all the right moves (Brouwer) or (Stone) but he had his reasons thinking they would some how advance the team. I will be watching to see if he is smart enough to correct his own mistakes quickly for the benefit of the team.

 

I get that, but we’ll before that we’ve been a cap team with less than stellar talent. Trading away most of our picks means much the same will happen in 5 years when those players are supposed to begin to take those places on the roster. We fill the gaps through FA and that costs even more or we get reclamation projects. 

 

I think: Speeding up the build will have long term affect on the team, that includes overpayment in free agency long term.

[MAC331]

1 hour ago, robrob74 said:

 

I get that, but we’ll before that we’ve been a cap team with less than stellar talent. Trading away most of our picks means much the same will happen in 5 years when those players are supposed to begin to take those places on the roster. We fill the gaps through FA and that costs even more or we get reclamation projects. 

 

I think: Speeding up the build will have long term affect on the team, that includes overpayment in free agency long term.

We will see I guess but I looking at what youth is on the team now and what is coming I would say we are well covered except for RSD IMO. I could see why BT did what he did and have no problem with the moves. There will be the possibility of some recapture of draft picks if BT were to decide after next season it is time to trade Giordano, Brodie, Backlund or Frolik to name a few.

[travel_dude]

2 hours ago, robrob74 said:

 

I get that, but we’ll before that we’ve been a cap team with less than stellar talent. Trading away most of our picks means much the same will happen in 5 years when those players are supposed to begin to take those places on the roster. We fill the gaps through FA and that costs even more or we get reclamation projects. 

 

I think: Speeding up the build will have long term affect on the team, that includes overpayment in free agency long term.

 

We have one of the most expensive blue lines in the league.  Not many teams pay 3 guys each over 4m.  Then there is Stone and Hamonic.  Last year there was Smid and Wideman.  We pay a lot for defense.  But, we don't have to worry about a Doubty wanting 10m.  WPG is able to ice a team that consist of more than a few guys on ELC's.

That will be pricey next year.

 

We have a few left overs, some newer ones (Brouwer), and some guys earning less than they are worth.  Paying too much for bottom 6 players, if you already have an expensive D, makes your payroll very fat.  You have to make up for that with smart trades (Smith with salary retained), cycle in D-men (Andersson, Kylington, Kulak), and replacing meh talent with young guys on the 4th line or D (Stone, Stajan, Brouwer).  

 

Frolik was a good add to this team. He earns his salary.  Dougie was a great deal.  Gio and Backlund will not likely be worth their money in the last years of their deals.

We have decent enough prospects through most of the positions to replace players.  IN theory, we should have the depth to replace guys like Brodie or Gio, Hamonic, Versteeg, Brouwer, Stajan, Backlund (maybe), Frolik and Smith.  That happening sooner means we can make trades for vets that can actually help.     

[MAC331]

37 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

We have one of the most expensive blue lines in the league.  Not many teams pay 3 guys each over 4m.  Then there is Stone and Hamonic.  Last year there was Smid and Wideman.  We pay a lot for defense.  But, we don't have to worry about a Doubty wanting 10m.  WPG is able to ice a team that consist of more than a few guys on ELC's.

That will be pricey next year.

 

We have a few left overs, some newer ones (Brouwer), and some guys earning less than they are worth.  Paying too much for bottom 6 players, if you already have an expensive D, makes your payroll very fat.  You have to make up for that with smart trades (Smith with salary retained), cycle in D-men (Andersson, Kylington, Kulak), and replacing meh talent with young guys on the 4th line or D (Stone, Stajan, Brouwer).  

 

Frolik was a good add to this team. He earns his salary.  Dougie was a great deal.  Gio and Backlund will not likely be worth their money in the last years of their deals.

We have decent enough prospects through most of the positions to replace players.  IN theory, we should have the depth to replace guys like Brodie or Gio, Hamonic, Versteeg, Brouwer, Stajan, Backlund (maybe), Frolik and Smith.  That happening sooner means we can make trades for vets that can actually help.     

When one stops and thinks about it we don't have a lot of needs heading into next season. Depending on where they see the players playing positionaly we could almost make do with what we have minus Stone and Brouwer.

[DirtyDeeds]

18 hours ago, robrob74 said:

It baffles me, and always has, that we are practically a cap team and can’t ice a true playoff team or contender. 

 

I get, old contracts are eventually moving on, but there is Brouwer... Frolik is a touch overpaid. We are paying 1.5-2 million to Stone as a 3rd pair D. 

I beg to differ. Frolik is a top 6 RW who constantly scores 20+ goals per season. The Flames are having a tough enough time filling the hole of a top 6 RW. 

 

Without Frolik we would be in deep Satoshi Nakamoto. At 4.5m per season and still only 30 years old for us he is a bargain.

[JTech780]

30 minutes ago, DirtyDeeds said:

I beg to differ. Frolik is a top 6 RW who constantly scores 20+ goals per season. The Flames are having a tough enough time filling the hole of a top 6 RW. 

 

Without Frolik we would be in deep Satoshi Nakamoto. At 4.5m per season and still only 30 years old for us he is a bargain.

 

Frolik's hasn't scored 20 goals in 8 seasons, he did in his 1st two seasons and hasn't done it since.

 

Frolik's is a very important player for us, mostly because of what he does defensively. I don't think he is a top 6 player offensively though.

[DirtyDeeds]

1 minute ago, JTech780 said:

 

Frolik's hasn't scored 20 goals in 8 seasons, he did in his 1st two seasons and hasn't done it since.

 

Frolik's is a very important player for us, mostly because of what he does defensively. I don't think he is a top 6 player offensively though.

Frolik has scored 20 goals in a season more than once. Just because he has not done it with us does not negate the accomplishment or the title of 20 goal scorer.

 

He is also a 40+ points per season guy. That also makes him a top 6 RW. We are fortunate to have him and would be in a really bad state if we did not have him in our top 6. 

[JTech780]

10 minutes ago, DirtyDeeds said:

Frolik has scored 20 goals in a season more than once. Just because he has not done it with us does not negate the accomplishment or the title of 20 goal scorer.

 

He is also a 40+ points per season guy. That also makes him a top 6 RW. We are fortunate to have him and would be in a really bad state if we did not have him in our top 6. 

 

You said he constantly scores 20+ goals, having scored 21 goals twice in a 10nyear career, doesn't make it constantly. 

 

I don't think anyone is downplaying his impact on this team.

[MAC331]

5 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

 

You said he constantly scores 20+ goals, having scored 21 goals twice in a 10nyear career, doesn't make it constantly. 

 

I don't think anyone is downplaying his impact on this team.

I would say he was likely a 3.5M player when BT gave him 4.5M to sign with Calgary but he as played into that contract.

[travel_dude]

2 hours ago, DirtyDeeds said:

I beg to differ. Frolik is a top 6 RW who constantly scores 20+ goals per season. The Flames are having a tough enough time filling the hole of a top 6 RW. 

 

Without Frolik we would be in deep Satoshi Nakamoto. At 4.5m per season and still only 30 years old for us he is a bargain.

 

Frolik is so underrated, it's not even funny.

Take him off the PK and we start letting in goals.

Doesn;t get a sniff of PP time, yet is still a 0.5 p/gp player.

Backlund's best 3 seasons had Frolik on his wing.

[robrob74]

3 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

Frolik is so underrated, it's not even funny.

Take him off the PK and we start letting in goals.

Doesn;t get a sniff of PP time, yet is still a 0.5 p/gp player.

Backlund's best 3 seasons had Frolik on his wing.

 

Just as much responding Deeds as well...

 

I am not saying he is bad, but when we have to sign him in UFA to fill a need because we didn’t draft a player like him, because we speed up a rebuild, you overpay. Those extra mills add up when trying to sign your guys later, like Tkachuk... 

plus being a cap team and not having a Stanley cup caliber team is embarrassing. 

It’s also  in response to having our picks traded and having to fill holes elsewhere. 

 

Did we really have to overpay Stajan? That was Burke, but still.

[cross16]

Frolik is a very solid hockey player and I'm happy to have him. He was a solid, but not great FA signing as I think th last year or two are going to hurt but for a team that basically had no RW he's been great. He's also great on the PK and he's helped bring along young players. 

 

That being said he is an example of how the Flames roster just isn't there. On a better team you want Frolik as a 3rd line- PK guy. Getting another top 6RW and bumping Frolik doe to the 3rd line with Bennett and jankowski I really think would he a massive help to the team. You need someone in the top 6 with more goal scoring ability and that's probably the biggest hole in Frolik game, doesn't have a great shot. 

[MAC331]

9 hours ago, robrob74 said:

 

Just as much responding Deeds as well...

 

I am not saying he is bad, but when we have to sign him in UFA to fill a need because we didn’t draft a player like him, because we speed up a rebuild, you overpay. Those extra mills add up when trying to sign your guys later, like Tkachuk... 

plus being a cap team and not having a Stanley cup caliber team is embarrassing. 

It’s also  in response to having our picks traded and having to fill holes elsewhere. 

 

Did we really have to overpay Stajan? That was Burke, but still.

I never understand why fans get "embarrassed" especially if their team doesn't win a SC. It is hard to win the SC and spending to the cap doesn't really figure into it IMO. Granted you should be spending the majority of your funds to have some of the best players however there will be times such as the Flames where you need to spend in order to support what you have.

[DirtyDeeds]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

Frolik is a very solid hockey player and I'm happy to have him. He was a solid, but not great FA signing as I think th last year or two are going to hurt but for a team that basically had no RW he's been great. He's also great on the PK and he's helped bring along young players. 

 

That being said he is an example of how the Flames roster just isn't there. On a better team you want Frolik as a 3rd line- PK guy. Getting another top 6RW and bumping Frolik doe to the 3rd line with Bennett and jankowski I really think would he a massive help to the team. You need someone in the top 6 with more goal scoring ability and that's probably the biggest hole in Frolik game, doesn't have a great shot. 

This is the problem. It is nice to think that getting another Top 6 RW would kick him down the lineup however you would need to get 2x top 6 RW's to push him down to 3rd line.  

 

The tandem of Backs and Frolik have shown too much chemistry and are mentoring Tkachuk properly. It is one of the things that the Flames are doing right.

 

It would take two RW's to bump him to 3rd and frankly we don't have that much cap room for two top 6 RW's. He would become too expensive for 3rd line. Fans would crucify him on 3rd line at his cost.

[MAC331]

17 minutes ago, DirtyDeeds said:

This is the problem. It is nice to think that getting another Top 6 RW would kick him down the lineup however you would need to get 2x top 6 RW's to push him down to 3rd line.  

 

The tandem of Backs and Frolik have shown too much chemistry and are mentoring Tkachuk properly. It is one of the things that the Flames are doing right.

 

It would take two RW's to bump him to 3rd and frankly we don't have that much cap room for two top 6 RW's. He would become too expensive for 3rd line. Fans would crucify him on 3rd line at his cost.

The smart move is to give the team options. I also like Frolik with Backlund but I think you could move Tkachuk off that line in order to advance his performance. I would like to see Bennett on LW with Backlund and Frolik because Bennett can skate with these two and could improve the line's overall performance.

[DirtyDeeds]

6 minutes ago, MAC331 said:

The smart move is to give the team options. I also like Frolik with Backlund but I think you could move Tkachuk off that line in order to advance his performance. I would like to see Bennett on LW with Backlund and Frolik because Bennett can skate with these two and could improve the line's overall performance.

Only place that Tkachuk might get some advancement is on first line RW. I not so sure that is best place for him atm(while developing). It is hard to argue he is not in the best spot presently, for now anyways. While the 1st line might be an offensive upgrade, the defensive part would be lacking.

 

Easy to say and imagine, but I am not so sure that Bennett on the Backs/Frolik line, would improve them to be better than what Tkachuk brings to the line presently.

[MAC331]

9 minutes ago, DirtyDeeds said:

Only place that Tkachuk might get some advancement is on first line RW. I not so sure that is best place for him atm(while developing). It is hard to argue he is not in the best spot presently, for now anyways. While the 1st line might be an offensive upgrade, the defensive part would be lacking.

 

Easy to say and imagine, but I am not so sure that Bennett on the Backs/Frolik line, would improve them to be better than what Tkachuk brings to the line presently.

I would like to see Tkachuk put about 15lbs on and some strength conditioning to improve his skating. He has the smarts and versatility IMO to play anywhere but I wouldn't hesitate to try him top line RW next season.

If we would get the Bennett we are seeing these last few weeks I think we would have a winning line. Defensively we improve immediately and we need this in order to shut down these speedier teams. If we want Bennett to show he can contribute offensively we need to take away the excuse that he doesn't have good line mates.

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, DirtyDeeds said:

This is the problem. It is nice to think that getting another Top 6 RW would kick him down the lineup however you would need to get 2x top 6 RW's to push him down to 3rd line.  

 

The tandem of Backs and Frolik have shown too much chemistry and are mentoring Tkachuk properly. It is one of the things that the Flames are doing right.

 

It would take two RW's to bump him to 3rd and frankly we don't have that much cap room for two top 6 RW's. He would become too expensive for 3rd line. Fans would crucify him on 3rd line at his cost.

 

Fine to keep Tkachuk on the Backlund line for now.  But we have a top 9 of parts that may not be the best fit.

Johnny-Monahan is good to great.

Backlund-Frolik is a shutdown monster pair.

Bennett, Janko, Ferland are three guys that look good in spurts.

Tkachuk is a special player that tends to spend too much time defending.

 

I would say that Tkachuk needs to spend more time on improving his skating to become faster than Monahan (which isn't saying that much).

He's a first line talent, but not sure of the fit on RW with the other two.  He fits in a PP situation right now by standing in front of the goalie.

 

If you are moving Tkachuk to the top line, then what do you do with Ferland.  He's better than Bennett at putting the puck in the net.  He's a bit of a liability defensively on his off wing.  If that's the case then simply swapping Ferland with Tkachuk might be the way to go.  He replaces Tkachuk with a big body that can skate.  Tkachuk adds a pest to the top line that draws defenders away.  

 

If you do that, then you need to bring in a top 9 RW to play with Janko and Bennett.  If you are spending $4m on him, then he better be as good or better than Frolik.  And if you are doing that, why wouldn;t you use him on the top line?

[MAC331]

9 minutes ago, travel_dude said:

 

Fine to keep Tkachuk on the Backlund line for now.  But we have a top 9 of parts that may not be the best fit.

Johnny-Monahan is good to great.

Backlund-Frolik is a shutdown monster pair.

Bennett, Janko, Ferland are three guys that look good in spurts.

Tkachuk is a special player that tends to spend too much time defending.

 

I would say that Tkachuk needs to spend more time on improving his skating to become faster than Monahan (which isn't saying that much).

He's a first line talent, but not sure of the fit on RW with the other two.  He fits in a PP situation right now by standing in front of the goalie.

 

If you are moving Tkachuk to the top line, then what do you do with Ferland.  He's better than Bennett at putting the puck in the net.  He's a bit of a liability defensively on his off wing.  If that's the case then simply swapping Ferland with Tkachuk might be the way to go.  He replaces Tkachuk with a big body that can skate.  Tkachuk adds a pest to the top line that draws defenders away.  

 

If you do that, then you need to bring in a top 9 RW to play with Janko and Bennett.  If you are spending $4m on him, then he better be as good or better than Frolik.  And if you are doing that, why wouldn;t you use him on the top line?

I think if you don't ever give Bennett the opportunity to succeed he never will. Why put him with another rookie and an unknown ?????

Ferland would be known performance to join Jankowski which IMO takes better advantage of the experience on the team.

[cross16]

2 hours ago, DirtyDeeds said:

This is the problem. It is nice to think that getting another Top 6 RW would kick him down the lineup however you would need to get 2x top 6 RW's to push him down to 3rd line.  

 

The tandem of Backs and Frolik have shown too much chemistry and are mentoring Tkachuk properly. It is one of the things that the Flames are doing right.

 

It would take two RW's to bump him to 3rd and frankly we don't have that much cap room for two top 6 RW's. He would become too expensive for 3rd line. Fans would crucify him on 3rd line at his cost.

 

I don't really see it this way. Ideally sure, you'd get 2 RWs but ferland works on the top line and I think Bennett could too. You've got options. 

 

I think the chemistry of Frolik and Backlund is overblown personally. That line didn't see that big a drop with Brouwer there and I think Tkachuk has shown he is doing just fine. Then you have Bennett - Jankowski who show promise but are terribly inconsistent, which is understandable as they are young. I think Frolik is the perfect type of veteran presence and possession oriented guy to give that line some consistency. 

 

I get the last point and fans would question it but thst shouldn't matter. Game has changed and you can no longer get by with just a top 6 you need at least 3 lines thst produce st both end of the rink so I don't see his cap hit as an issue. Honestly I think you would hardly see a change in his ice time or his role  

[MAC331]

18 hours ago, cross16 said:

 

I don't really see it this way. Ideally sure, you'd get 2 RWs but ferland works on the top line and I think Bennett could too. You've got options. 

 

I think the chemistry of Frolik and Backlund is overblown personally. That line didn't see that big a drop with Brouwer there and I think Tkachuk has shown he is doing just fine. Then you have Bennett - Jankowski who show promise but are terribly inconsistent, which is understandable as they are young. I think Frolik is the perfect type of veteran presence and possession oriented guy to give that line some consistency. 

 

I get the last point and fans would question it but thst shouldn't matter. Game has changed and you can no longer get by with just a top 6 you need at least 3 lines thst produce st both end of the rink so I don't see his cap hit as an issue. Honestly I think you would hardly see a change in his ice time or his role  

I wouldn't say the chemistry is overblown because they are undeniably good together which is why I think you could almost put anyone with them and have a good line. The question I ask is where could Tkachuk do the most damage and top line RW is my answer. I know the skating issue will come up but I would at least like to see this attempted. This frees up Ferland to play LW with Jankowski and then let the competition for 3rd line RW begin.