Nolan Patrick

[robrob74]

On 2017-01-29 at 4:42 PM, AlbertaBoy12 said:

Laine wasent a suprise alot of scouts said he had the best shot since ovechkin and was probably going to score more then matthews in his first year.

 

I dont think there is a comparison between last years top 3 and this years top 3, it really depends how you rate player I guess though. hirscher doesnt measure up to laine in my opinion and I guess it depends which player you considered number 3 in last years draft to draw a comparison.

 

I think we gotta draft smart in this draft. Find someone who can play 2nd, 3rd or 4th line. Or it could be one where a D is a surprise? If we are in the middle of the pack do we draft the best D available? Goalie? 

[jjgallow]

54 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

I think we gotta draft smart in this draft. Find someone who can play 2nd, 3rd or 4th line. Or it could be one where a D is a surprise? If we are in the middle of the pack do we draft the best D available? Goalie? 

 

BPA imho.  We can't look at our current needs for an upcoming draft.  Especially if we're talking about D's or goalies.  They almost definitely won't be ready in time.   

 

That said, I would have NO issues with a D or a goalie.   I have more thoughts on the matter but I think I'll take them to CrzyDrver's draft thread, and wait for Nolan Patrick to start playing more games here.

[robrob74]

2 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

BPA imho.  We can't look at our current needs for an upcoming draft.  Especially if we're talking about D's or goalies.  They almost definitely won't be ready in time.   

 

That said, I would have NO issues with a D or a goalie.   I have more thoughts on the matter but I think I'll take them to CrzyDrver's draft thread, and wait for Nolan Patrick to start playing more games here.

 

And that's what I mean, seeing as how BPA will end up playing further down the lineup, I really meant, make sure we draft a future NHLer. 

 

 

[JTech780]

Quote

The consensus amongst scouts seems to be that were Patrick eligible last year, he would have been ranked/chosen in the No. 5 to 8 region, quite likely behind Matthews, Laine, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Jesse Puljujarvi.

 

http://www.tsn.ca/patrick-has-decided-edge-in-tsn-hockey-mid-season-draft-ranking-1.661533

 

The quote above is from Bob McKenzie's mid term rankings.

[jjgallow]

 

13 points in his last 7 games (since his return), including a 4 point night last night.

 

Picking up where he left off, and then some.  IMHO, he goes first overall and that's not even a real discussion.

 

The question is how he compares with last year, with McDavid, etc.

 

http://whl.ca/players/26760/game_by_game

[JTech780]

13 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

13 points in his last 7 games (since his return), including a 4 point night last night.

 

Picking up where he left off, and then some.  IMHO, he goes first overall and that's not even a real discussion.

 

The question is how he compares with last year, with McDavid, etc.

 

http://whl.ca/players/26760/game_by_game

 

According to Bob McKenzie and his team of scouts Patrick would have been ranked in the 5-8 overall range, and it's not like he is far off age wise from the draft only missing the draft cut off by 3 days.

 

I would ask how Eric Staal and Sean Monahan compare to McDavid, Eichel, Matthews, and Laine, because those are the two players I have seen Patrick most compared too.

[jjgallow]

2 hours ago, JTech780 said:

 

According to Bob McKenzie and his team of scouts Patrick would have been ranked in the 5-8 overall range, and it's not like he is far off age wise from the draft only missing the draft cut off by 3 days.

 

I would ask how Eric Staal and Sean Monahan compare to McDavid, Eichel, Matthews, and Laine, because those are the two players I have seen Patrick most compared too.

 

I have always had a lot of respect for Bob McKenzie, but I just don't think anyone knows how to rank Nolan Patrick.

 

No matter how you look at it, it's a fair statement that the WHL has never produced anyone this good, in the modern era of hockey.

 

So is that 5-8 in last year's draft?    An arguement could be made, I suppose.   But personally, I think it's way off base.  And when you look at the last 5 years, the top talent in the WHL has been consistently under-valued in the draft.   Now, we have the best talent, Ever...coming out of the WHL.   Combined with missing half the season.

 

So how does one rank that?

 

IMHO, Eric Staal and Sean Monahan aren't part of the conversation.   He's only been back 7 games, but I think he's very quickly returning to the comparison between McDavid, Eichel, Matthews, and Laine.

[JTech780]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

I have always had a lot of respect for Bob McKenzie, but I just don't think anyone knows how to rank Nolan Patrick.

 

No matter how you look at it, it's a fair statement that the WHL has never produced anyone this good, in the modern era of hockey.

 

So is that 5-8 in last year's draft?    An arguement could be made, I suppose.   But personally, I think it's way off base.  And when you look at the last 5 years, the top talent in the WHL has been consistently under-valued in the draft.   Now, we have the best talent, Ever...coming out of the WHL.   Combined with missing half the season.

 

So how does one rank that?

 

IMHO, Eric Staal and Sean Monahan aren't part of the conversation.   He's only been back 7 games, but I think he's very quickly returning to the comparison between McDavid, Eichel, Matthews, and Laine.

 

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Sam Reinhart put up similar point totals at the same ages and what they are in the NHL is closer to where I see Nolan Patrick ending up in the NHL, he might be a bit ahead of them but not by a whole lot.

[jjgallow]

15 minutes ago, JTech780 said:

 

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Sam Reinhart put up similar point totals at the same ages and what they are in the NHL is closer to where I see Nolan Patrick ending up in the NHL, he might be a bit ahead of them but not by a whole lot.

 

Patrick is pushing two points per game, coming off a major injury.   Neither one of them were anywhere close to that at any point.

 

So, I would have to disagree...but not even because of that.

 

Because of the number of goals per game.

[JTech780]

Nolan Patrick in his 17 year old season:

.57 goals per game (41 goals)

1.42 points per game (102 points)

 

Ryan Nugent-Hokins in his 17 year old Season:

.45 goals per game (31 goals)

1.54 points per game (106)

 

 

[DirtyDeeds]

2 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

Patrick is pushing two points per game, coming off a major injury.   Neither one of them were anywhere close to that at any point.

 

So, I would have to disagree...but not even because of that.

 

Because of the number of goals per game.

It is a mistake to take a players points or points per game and try to project this from Junior to NHL. You will be wrong more often than correct.

[robrob74]

2 hours ago, DirtyDeeds said:

It is a mistake to take a players points or points per game and try to project this from Junior to NHL. You will be wrong more often than correct.

 

I know it's different for every league, but Poirier is starting to look like a good example of that.

[jjgallow]

3 minutes ago, robrob74 said:

 

I know it's different for every league, but Poirier is starting to look like a good example of that.

 

Separate conversation, but I Never got the whole Poirier thing.   Poirier Never had the points to justify him as a first rounder.   That was quite an unusual pick.   I would argue that Poirier as a great example where Poirier was picked DESPITE status not worthy of his draft position, and the Flames suffered the consequences of that decision.   

 

He had the point totals of a mid-2nd rounder.  Or lower.  And imho, that's where he should have been drafted.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2013e.html

[jjgallow]

2 hours ago, DirtyDeeds said:

It is a mistake to take a players points or points per game and try to project this from Junior to NHL. You will be wrong more often than correct.

 

ok. but you're kind of singling me out when everyone on this thread...and everyone on any 2017 draft thread, is doing this.

 

The truth, is that no Matter WHAT method you use to project junior players to the NHL, you Will be wrong more often than correct.  Even if you're Bob McKenzie or likewise.

 

Any professional scout takes point totals into account, though.   Especially when they're record setting.

[jjgallow]

3 hours ago, JTech780 said:

Nolan Patrick in his 17 year old season:

.57 goals per game (41 goals)

1.42 points per game (102 points)

 

Ryan Nugent-Hokins in his 17 year old Season:

.45 goals per game (31 goals)

1.54 points per game (106)

 

Sure, but you're manipulating your categories to make it sound like they were the same age in those performances, and they weren't, even if at some point they were both 17.   Your method of comparison puts Nolan Patrick at a disadvantage, and he's Still got way more goals, which, imho, is way more important.  He's also 6'3, and his success will be far more translatable at the NHL level.  Even with your comparison, Patrick would be picked over RNH across the board.

 

If you disagree with just using "Draft Year", then you have to also disagree with your example.  Because they are both equally flawed in the same way.

 

What I care more about, is the most recent performance of a player entering the draft.  Are they plateauing?  Are they advancing quickly?

 

Nolan Patrick's performance and skills are accelerating into the draft, in a way that no other WHLer's ever has.  And he has no more WHL experience than any other player we're comparing.

 

Yes...is it a factor that he's a few months older than his peers?  Sure.  It's a factor.  But that only goes so far.  His younger peers aren't likely to become 6'3 6 months from now, or fill into his NHL ready frame...and for that matter, his younger peers are never going to have the WHL success he's having now.  Not even next season.

 

People are going out of their way to put a Massive discount on him because of his age, and they're not taking into account that Nobody as young as him has accomplished what he has in the WHL.   That Still counts for something.

[DirtyDeeds]

1 hour ago, jjgallow said:

 

ok. but you're kind of singling me out when everyone on this thread...and everyone on any 2017 draft thread, is doing this.

 

The truth, is that no Matter WHAT method you use to project junior players to the NHL, you Will be wrong more often than correct.  Even if you're Bob McKenzie or likewise.

 

Any professional scout takes point totals into account, though.   Especially when they're record setting.

I was not singling you out JJ. I can see how you might think so. Better hockey minds than you or I have tried to find the formula for targeting the best junior players.. but they fail often too.

[Flyerfan52]

12 hours ago, DirtyDeeds said:

I was not singling you out JJ. I can see how you might think so. Better hockey minds than you or I have tried to find the formula for targeting the best junior players.. but they fail often too.

It's alway been that way. Many of what people sneeringly refer to as "goons" or "knuckledraggers" were gunners in junior.

 

Projecting junior to pro points (NHL or AHL) is made harder by the distinct difference in style between the O, Q & W divisions.

Further complicating matters it accounting for quality of competition for those playing in college or Europe.

 

If all prospective draftees came from 1 feeder source the choices would have seen fairly even competition.

[cross16]

Scouting or making decision based primarily on points is one of the biggest errors I think you can make. Scout traits not production. Too many uncontrollable variables in point production. 

 

For me Patrick is still Anze Kopitar. Very good player and some rare skills for his size but nothing is elite about his game. Going to be a good player, number one centre, and is my number 1 guy this draft for sure but he just isn't a franchise changer like McDavid, Eichel, Laine etc which shouldnt be held against him. 

[jjgallow]

2 hours ago, Flyerfan52 said:

It's alway been that way. Many of what people sneeringly refer to as "goons" or "knuckledraggers" were gunners in junior.

 

Projecting junior to pro points (NHL or AHL) is made harder by the distinct difference in style between the O, Q & W divisions.

Further complicating matters it accounting for quality of competition for those playing in college or Europe.

 

If all prospective draftees came from 1 feeder source the choices would have seen fairly even competition.

 

Have to agree there.  One of the best examples ever:  Tim Hunter.

[jjgallow]

1 hour ago, cross16 said:

Scouting or making decision based primarily on points is one of the biggest errors I think you can make. Scout traits not production. Too many uncontrollable variables in point production. 

 

For me Patrick is still Anze Kopitar. Very good player and some rare skills for his size but nothing is elite about his game. Going to be a good player, number one centre, and is my number 1 guy this draft for sure but he just isn't a franchise changer like McDavid, Eichel, Laine etc which shouldnt be held against him. 

 

As one of the board's greatest "offenders" of stats usage, I will concede to this, yes.   But only 50%.   You still need to consider those stats.  They are not ever to be cast aside.

 

Stats are flawed, like all methods but they have steered me straight and allowed me to see past what others couldn't...often.   Which makes for lively discussion on here.   True, it's never helped me with Flames goaltending prospects...but neither has any Other kind of hope in our poor, cursed goalie prospects.

 

When there is a glaring difference between expectations and stats, and One of them is exceptional, BOTH should be looked at carefully, and a weighed decision made after digging much deeper into both.  I believe this to be true with Nolan Patrick.  I believe his stats make an arguement for generational player, and not just any generational player.  I believe they stack up nicely against any player in history.   Depending on how you stack them.   And how they are stacked, is interesting to me.

 

The forum and hockey world consensus on McDavid, was that he was over-hyped.   Looking at his numbers (in extreme detail, not just point totals), I argued that his production actually justified the hype, and justified a direct comparison between him and Crosby.   That turned out to be the case.  Now everyone "knew it", and everyone explains why they knew, but that wasn't the case one, or two years, before his draft.

 

Auston Matthews:  Exact same thing happened.

 

And yes, there are a billion examples where it steers you wrong (Tim Hunter), but it is in the extremes (and Nolan Patrick's are extreme) where they should not, can not, be ignored.  Explain them, sure.  That's good.   Cast them aside?  Generational stats?   On a 6'3 hulking forward?   All the Tim Hunters in the world can't justify that.

 

With Nolan Patrick I've heard three arguements in this forum:

 

• He's older     (I gave this Some credit, but it is not enough to explain those numbers)
• The WHL doesn't produce skilled or elite players   (I give this basically zero credit, but I agree it is a widespread belief)
• He doesn't have elite skills  (I give this a Small amount of credit, but I heard the same thing about McDavid.  It  lacks definition and it does not explain his numbers at all.  It is not an explanation, on its own.  It simply disregards the stats, casting them aside.   More elaboration is needed, that also explains his high production)

 

 

At the end of the day, what makes a generational player?  Is it stats?  Is it "elite skills"?

 

Many argue that Gretzky lacked elite skills.  All agree that he was a generational player, "the great one".   

 

I don't have an answer to that question, but I do know that any player who's achieved this status has done so in their own, unique way.  I would argue that Nolan Patrick is producing at a rate that cannot be ignored.

[DirtyDeeds]

2 hours ago, jjgallow said:

 

...

 

At the end of the day, what makes a generational player?  Is it stats?  Is it "elite skills"?

 

.....

a generational player is one who has produced and played at a generational level in the NHL for many seasons. McDavid shouldn't be called generational until he has close to a decade in the NHL and played constantly at that level.

[cross16]

I'm not saying throw stats out the window, I'm just saying don't form an opinion of a player based primarily on stats. Stats should either confirm or contradict what traits you see and only if there is a discrepancy between what your eyes see and what stats tell you should they form part of an evaluation imo. 

 

I think you are far more likely to get mislead with stats then cut through "noise". reason why you tend to get over exited about prospects and eventually have to come back down to reality. 

 

[jjgallow]

55 minutes ago, cross16 said:

reason why you tend to get over exited about prospects and eventually have to come back down to reality. 

 

 

The reason I do this is because I find it far more therapeutic than doing actual work

 

But in reality, I think my record is pretty good.   Sure, not everybody I get excited about turns out.  Maybe... half.  Depending on what "excited" means.  By the context of this Nolan Patrick discussion, I will say half.

 

Ever consider that's actually just fine?   That no guarantees were ever offered, and I wasn't selling anything?   And no harm from getting excited was ever done?

 

Ever look back at your own record?  All your "certainties"?   I looked back on yours once and you didn't appreciate it.  You tend to be certain about things, because you like to be certain.  When nothing is.

 

For every Joni Ortio, I've got an Anthony DeAngelo, or a Burukovsky, that I called before the draft (and I still blame the Flames and their goalie development lol).  

 

For every Nolan Patrick, I've got a Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews that I've received slack for "hyping" before the draft.

 

Actually, if I'm wrong with Nolan Patrick, it would be my first time being wrong on here with a player of his caliber.  And that's ok.

 

But do you have something other than "he's not elite"?   More defined?   For instance..his skating.  How is his skating note elite?    I watch his skating, and I don't see how it isn't elite.  Is he not thinking the game right?   His positioning, to me, is incredible.  Which tells me his thinking is elite.   But you would disagree.  How so?

 

We've had this same discussion about McDavid, and Matthews (collective "we"...I can't remember if you were part of it).   Those discussions went the exact same way as this, and went dead silent when they entered the NHL.

 

So I'm asking.  because "you're just looking at stats" doesn't really say much...and...has a horrible track record.

 

 

 

 

 

[cross16]

Not sure why this went to "records". I said you tend to get over excited that's all not whether you were right or not.

i think you are lumping me in with others considering I called McDavid generational and Mathews elite talents. Guys like that really arnt difficult to scout. 

To answer your question, I guess it depends on your benchmark. When I think elite skaters I think McDavid, Mackinnon, Duchene, Larkin guys like that. Guys that's can fly around people but also cut around people. That isn't Patrick. When I think elite hockey sense I think Crosby, McDavid, Malkin, Gretzky, Lemieux, Mathews etc. it's not just being in the right spot, it's being one step ahead of the gsme. Patrick's is excellent he just isn't in that category. Those are my benchmarks. 

At the end of the day I still think Patrick will be a number one center so it's not like I don't like him. i really do, just not to the same level I did Mathews and McDavid. 

[robrob74]

3 hours ago, cross16 said:

I'm not saying throw stats out the window, I'm just saying don't form an opinion of a player based primarily on stats. Stats should either confirm or contradict what traits you see and only if there is a discrepancy between what your eyes see and what stats tell you should they form part of an evaluation imo. 

 

I think you are far more likely to get mislead with stats then cut through "noise". reason why you tend to get over exited about prospects and eventually have to come back down to reality. 

 

 

I know a bit of a different situation, but, We can look at Bouma's stats in the WHL. If scouts went on stats alone he wouldn't get drafted. Bouma is an nhler. He is on a bad contract, but earned a bit of it. 

 

Some on here say thaf stats at least project whether someone has the skill to play in the NHL. Albeit, I they were referring to D, that most D need to show some level of offensive skill. 

 

Perhaps it was Kehatch. Where is Kehatch lately?