DirtyDeeds Posted February 13, 2015 Report Share Posted February 13, 2015 Apparently I misunderstood his post. I took it as he saw the TSN guy as incorrect, and then says that until they can use stats that are "always right" he will continue to not acknowledge them. Feels like you are inferring an understanding based on the post that I am not. Apologies if I was incorrect.He says he doesn't trust the advanced stats. He wants to see them be correct and I think correctly used. I took it from his comments that he feels they are not as accurate as he would like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flamesfan85 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 · Hidden by Kulstad, February 13, 2015 - Too inflammatory for a newbie. Hidden by Kulstad, February 13, 2015 - Too inflammatory for a newbie. Off topic: This is too civil! Online forums are not supposed to be like this. Curse the Deeds! /s Link to comment
KACaribou Posted February 14, 2015 Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 It is always amazing how a simple comment can be misread and misunderstood. Dirty Deeds has correctly analyzed what was said and interpreted it correctly, using his formula of eye contact with the page, scanning across the words left to right, absorbing the words and sentences into his corpus collosum using the thought process - letting his grey matter properly understanding what was written. Now there's a formula that works! Most do use this method, others use bad analytics to decode simple sentences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDeeds Posted February 14, 2015 Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 It is always amazing how a simple comment can be misread and misunderstood. Dirty Deeds has correctly analyzed what was said and interpreted it correctly, using his formula of eye contact with the page, scanning across the words left to right, absorbing the words and sentences into his corpus collosum using the thought process - letting his grey matter properly understanding what was written. Now there's a formula that works! Most do use this method, others use bad analytics to decode simple sentences. only grey matter around here is in my hair...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartbreaker Posted February 14, 2015 Report Share Posted February 14, 2015 There's fifty shades of grey matter in his hair, and damn! He looks sophisticated and handsome. Love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flame111 Posted February 15, 2015 Report Share Posted February 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flame111 Posted February 15, 2015 Report Share Posted February 15, 2015 The reason I have turned my back on advanced stats in hockey is that it was affecting my enjoyment of the game. It changed the way I watched the game. It brought me into a smug zone and worst yet sucked out my ability to enjoy the game, especially the winning. It didn't enrich it, it actually sucked the fun out of it. You see when the Flames lost it was like, well of course they lost - their Corsi is bad etc etc. When they were winning it was, well the regression will happen soon, it isn't sustainable. In short I decided to spit out the apple because I came to realize that I started watching hockey in the first place and loving it because it was so unpredictable. The fact that in OT anything can happen. The miracle on ice. The Steve Smith goal and on and on and yes if you make the playoffs anything can happen. Advanced Stats nerds cringe when they read that if you make the playoffs anything can happen but look at the Flames in 2004 / the Oilers in 2006. Those seasons are so imbedded in their fan's minds because they were so unpredictable. I love hockey so much because hockey is all about those moments, what advanced stat guys call the outliers. Now there are people who are in hockey management who are paid big money to see past glorious playoff runs like that and stay rational and make decisions appropriately but as fans hockey is about having fun. Not being the Debbie Downer in the room. That is the real reason I have very little use for advanced stats now. I am not even convinced that the information they present in the long-term is going to be of any real nuanced value. It is kind of like stating the sky is blue or a square has 4 sides. It just doesn't state anything that deep. IN the advanced stat world they get to the point of actually over-looking the # of wins / points / work ethic / coaching and calling a team that is out of the playoffs successful based on their advanced stats. At this point they are beginning to tip into a bizarro world. They have gone so far down the rabbit hole. I decided to leave it behind... But to those who have converted to the religion - well there is no talking to them. It is their way of mathematizing the game. Like I said earlier they would do it to poetry or art if they could. It is the glasses through which they want to see their reality. At the bottom line to me it is a smug, elitist way of watching the game and one that sucks the fun out of it. At least it did so for me. I sat back this season and did not enjoy it anywhere near as much as I wanted to because of the advanced stats glasses, well I have them off now. I am going back to the way I used to watch hockey as a kid, with my uncle bellowing into the air that the hockey gods have frowned on this or that player or the team. It is a hell of a lot more fun than all this math that just leads them to proclaim luck at the end of it all anyway - lol.Advanced stats may have some minimal use for hockey GMs in the background but as I said it will never be the meat of an argument, rather just the sauce. If the Stanley Cup winning Kings somehow miss the playoffs and the lowly Calgary Flames make it. It will be damn hard for advanced stats advocates to maintain their legitimacy with any pull. The reason the hockey season is so brutally long is because it negates the streak effect or "luck" - I'm sorry to all the advanced stats advocates out there but the very real possibility that the Kings may miss despite good advanced stats and the Flames may make it despite very poor advanced stats should give any reasonable person pause on the value of the entire paradigm... That is just reality staring at you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheersMan Posted February 15, 2015 Report Share Posted February 15, 2015 ^^^^^ Welcome back from the dark side. I hope you can begin to enjoy the game once again the way it was truly meant to be enjoyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kulstad Posted February 15, 2015 Report Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just a suggestion guys, but in deference to fairness, let's stop picking on the folks who enjoy these stats, and the advanced stats themselves. Sure some of us (myself included) don't see a personal use for them, but there *are* some who do enjoy them, and they deserve a place to discuss them, just as much as any other topic deserves a place to be discussed. We've all had our fun in teasing and poking fun at them, but let's let this topic run for what it is. Now, that's not to say that when some tool of a "reporter" decides to misuse or misrepresent these stats that we don't crucify him (*cough*thisguy*cough*), but until that happens (and there will be many, many times, I'm sure), we leave *our* "stats guys" alone on this one. Think of it this way.....in our lovely little community, we're seeing the development of a shiny new "weapon" (ie: the guys and gals who know about these advanced stats) that we, as a Flames community, can add to our arsenal of logic against the rest of the NHL "fans" ("Oiler Nation", CDC, etc). Like I said.....just a suggestion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KACaribou Posted February 15, 2015 Report Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think if some TSN blogger decides he wants to take a crack at the Flames he should be open to defending his position once his detractors present their opinions as well. My original opinion was sent to TSN and they would not post it so I posted it here. I don't think anyone should be able to give their opinion without also having the balls to let others retort. Including the Flames message board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kulstad Posted February 15, 2015 Report Share Posted February 15, 2015 I think if some TSN blogger decides he wants to take a crack at the Flames he should be open to defending his position once his detractors present their opinions as well. My original opinion was sent to TSN and they would not post it so I posted it here. I don't think anyone should be able to give their opinion without also having the balls to let others retort. Including the Flames message board. Re-read closely what I posted, and tell me again how I'm castrating people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kehatch Posted February 15, 2015 Report Share Posted February 15, 2015 This debate isn't about advanced stats. It's about a unicorn. There isn't a magic formula that defines if a player or team is better then another player or team. Some people are trying to use Corsi for that purpose. Some are taking offence to that. I get it. But let's move on. Corsi simply shows the number if shot attempts for vs against of a player or team. It doesn't say anything. If a team has a lower then normal even strength Corsi but are winning maybe they have really good goal tending. Maybe they have really good shooter. Maybe they have great special teams. Maybe they have the lead a whole lot leading to the chasing / scoring effect. Maybe they aren't a very good team but are getting fortunate bounces. There are lots of good and meaningful ways to use advanced stats that go beyond trying to apply a magic formula. Personally I enjoy looking at the impact of certain line combinations and match ups. Or providung context to a players performance (type of competition and zone starts). I can guarantee that the teams haven't hired analytic personelle to calculate Corsi. I am sure no team in the NHL is suggesting the Oilers are really good and just waiting for them to show their real colours when the bad luck runs out. Advanced stats aren't a fad. It's simply using tracking to get more info. However, the medias "money ball" application of the stats IS a fad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flyerfan52 Posted February 15, 2015 Report Share Posted February 15, 2015 Just a suggestion guys, but in deference to fairness, let's stop picking on the folks who enjoy these stats, and the advanced stats themselves. Sure some of us (myself included) don't see a personal use for them, but there *are* some who do enjoy them, and they deserve a place to discuss them, just as much as any other topic deserves a place to be discussed. We've all had our fun in teasing and poking fun at them, but let's let this topic run for what it is. Now, that's not to say that when some tool of a "reporter" decides to misuse or misrepresent these stats that we don't crucify him (*cough*thisguy*cough*), but until that happens (and there will be many, many times, I'm sure), we leave *our* "stats guys" alone on this one. Think of it this way.....in our lovely little community, we're seeing the development of a shiny new "weapon" (ie: the guys and gals who know about these advanced stats) that we, as a Flames community, can add to our arsenal of logic against the rest of the NHL "fans" ("Oiler Nation", CDC, etc). Like I said.....just a suggestion. I've probably been 1 of the worst @ putting down the advanced stats people. But if poring over #s increases their enjoyment so be it. I'll enjoy it the old fashioned way & try not to ruin their enjoyment. Afterall, even us dinosaurs rely on some stats in our predictions rather than only our gut feeling. I like Pyro's chart tracking record needed for playoffs in particular. There are some media that use #s to try to tell us that we're not really seeing what our senses tell us but our posters seldom do that. You put it well Kulstad so I for 1 will try to refrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KACaribou Posted February 15, 2015 Report Share Posted February 15, 2015 Re-read closely what I posted, and tell me again how I'm castrating people. Re-read mine closely and tell me again how I am accusing you of casterating people. You gave your opinion, and I think you should let others decide if it is a valid one. Don't be TSN-like. Accept that some might not agree with you. I disagree that my original comment should have even been mixed up in some Corsi blog to begin with. You put it there. Bad move. That's what caused most of the problems here. Before that people were just ticked that the TSN dude was cutting down the Flames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carty Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'm bringing this post over from the Trade Rumor Thread as an example of an advanced stat that is useful... It is quite straightforward, and it would be difficult to use it to misrepresent the information contained in it in an attempt to make a point... Glencross is currently on track for 40 points and 12 goals in 73 games. He is a plus 8, second among forwards. Here is his usage chart: Him being at the top of the chart says he has played against tougher competition then anyone on the team. Him being at the left end of the chart says that he has starts in the defensive end more often then the most of his team. The big blue bubble says that (relative to his team) he generates more shot attempts for then against. So he is on a 40 point pace playing the toughest ice time on the club. He has maintained a +8 rating (second among forwards) despite playing these tough minutes. Yet some here are trying to suggest he has zero value or that he could be traded without any impact to our team. I don't even like Glencross much. I don't want the Flames to sign him to an extension. I won't be heartbroken if they do trade him as long as they get something back that helps this season. But people aren't being fair in their assessment of him. He DOES leave a hole and the Flames are a better team with him on the roster. While I find most advanced stats to be either inadequately thought out and missing factors that should have been considered, or ones that can be easily misused, it is only fair to include an example of one that passes the "smell test"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
420since1974 Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 The chart may be straightforward but I still have questions. Who decides "Quality of Competition"? What factors are used to determine it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kehatch Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 The chart may be straightforward but I still have questions. Who decides "Quality of Competition"? What factors are used to determine it? Corsi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
420since1974 Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 I thought that the Corsi Number is the shot differential while a player was on the ice. My two questions remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDeeds Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 Seems we may have to change the title to this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kehatch Posted February 19, 2015 Report Share Posted February 19, 2015 Seems we may have to change the title to this thread. That is great news. I am have been advocating that for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flame111 Posted February 20, 2015 Report Share Posted February 20, 2015 That is great news. I am have been advocating that for some time. Good the names were insider jargon. Fenwick is just the name of the blogger who came up with the concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTech780 Posted February 20, 2015 Report Share Posted February 20, 2015 Everyone should check out the enhanced stat section on NHL.com. It is fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kehatch Posted February 20, 2015 Report Share Posted February 20, 2015 As JT says, the NHL finally launched an enhanced statistics page focusing on shot attempts. They also added some statistics to their traditional stats pages. It is a really strong start. Some of the advanced stats elitists don't like it, but I really like that they changed the names CORSI and Fenwick to shot attempts (SAT). It makes much more sense. I also really like their focus on SAT Close. For those that don't know, this isolates shot attempts to when the game is within 1 goal in the first two periods, or one that is tied in the third period. This helps combat the scoring effect (when a team that is chasing generates more shots because the leading team goes into a shell). For those that question the credibility of shot attempt data I did a little test. I sorted the data by Games Won and looked at the SOT Close differential. In the top 20 in wins there is only one that has a negative SOT Close (the Flames) In the bottom 10 in wins no team has a positive SOT Close. In every case where a team has a positive SOT close they have more wins then regulation loses (i.e. over 500). This is by a pretty wide margin (the worst team is 4 games over 500) In almost every case where a team has a negative SOT close they have fewer wins then regulation loses (i.e. under 500). There are four exceptions. Colorado and Philly have one more win then losses. Ottawa has the same number of wins as loses. The Flames are the only large exception with 10 wins over 500. You can't look at the numbers and say that team X has the best SOT Close so they are the best team. But in almost every case the teams that win more often get more shot attempts then they give up. There are almost no exceptions. The only real exception is the Calgary Flames who stick out like a sore thumb. This isn't to say that the Flames are going to fall off a cliff. I am just showing that usually a positive SOT Close does equal a positive win ratio. The Flames are the one exception this year (you can draw your on conclusions as to why.) EDIT: For interest sake I looked at the past two seasons to see how many teams made the playoffs that were a significant negative in SOT Close (-100 or worse). Montreal and Colorado made it last season. Anaheim and Toronto made it the season before. In both seasons there was one team that fell of a cliff the following season (Toronto, Colorado) and one that didn't (Montreal, Anaheim). So even just looking at the numbers there is hope for Calgary (who I think will improve rather then regress). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted February 20, 2015 Report Share Posted February 20, 2015 I opened this to see if the enhanced stats section of nhl.com was mentioned... One of the new stats i really like and found interesting peruse was : pts/20 mins... basically adjusts players production rates to help squish/reduce player usage effects by various coaches... ESPN has always had a version of this (mins/pt)... but the value pts/20 ins gives is a lot more tangible and easier to grasp... i.e. the elite scorers should be around 1. The link to the enhanced stats page: http://www.nhl.com/stats/advancedstats?navid=nav-sts-adv# Only thing they are missing now is a 'games played' filter of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted February 20, 2015 Report Share Posted February 20, 2015 Another thing immediately stands out for me... In looking at primary vs secondary assists of the top 30 scorers in the league... The ratio for playmakers is generally balanced... however, the players that weighed heavily for primary assists over secondary ones are known snipers... ie. they likely create goals off of their rebounds. Basically for me this completely knocks the argument out of the water when some people argue primary vs secondary assist values.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.