cccsberg Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 Me eye's are burn'in and starting to water. How's LA (defending SC champ and favored to repeat) doing according to Corsi? I don't like Corsi as its too fuzzy to tell you much of anything. If you want to look deeper check the previous posts... I figured that since they keep starting threads about how valuable stats are I (& others) can rebut/ridiclule. I think those of us that are the "Good Ol' Hockey Guy" are taking it with more than 1 grain of salt (better for a Margarita, lol). If the thread is only for advanced stats afficionados I wish that was mentioned in the OP. Henceforth I'll avoid this 1. ************************************************* Now can I have my basket back? I need those for other threads (sometimes on other boards ). This thread is for everyone. If you've got any insightful comments or rebuttals that would be great. If not and you just want to rabble rouse, that's fine too... Can't have enough laughs in my day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carty Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 I don't like Corsi as its too fuzzy to tell you much of anything. I agree with you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheersMan Posted January 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 That there green line at the 00:00 mark is exactly what Granddad told me, God luv him. Now……….what don’t make sense is that there yellow, blue and red line. Them 3 lines remind me of duck tracks on the roof of a red necks trailer during hunt ‘in season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kehatch Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 Well that worked well. Let's just revel in ignorance. A flat world is much easier to comprehend. I would HATE to debate fact vs fact. Let's Judy talk rectoric. Easier for the masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDeeds Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 Agreed. Just like goals are more important then advanced stats. The advanced stats just let you build a more efficient scoring team. Not sure why every analytics discussion needs the "well in my day" crowd. I don't bring my CORSI into the bandwagon thread. Have you ever been in the bandwagon thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDeeds Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 And yet the team that won a tough division last season is sitting out of the playoffs this season. They did regress. It is the heart of the debate. Many are pointing out that results (such as goals) are all that matters. But how many times have we seen a player put up big numbers, get signed to a huge contract, and then flounder? Most of the times the metrics clearly told us that this would happen. How many times have we seen a team do well in a season, make incorrect decisions based on that success, and then fail to get results the following season? Once again, it was entirely predictable. It is staggering how often the metrics correctly predict future results. It is why nearly every team is expanding their metrics and analytic departments. But some fans refuse to acknowledge the results and immediately criticize the metrics without really understanding what they are criticizing. Which would be fine, except that it is almost impossible for those interested to have this type of conversation on the forums because that group feels the need to trash every post. I get that it isn't the be all end all. It is part of a complicated puzzle and it is part of evaluating results and building a team. But I think there is room to evaluate context (i.e. zone starts) or shot differentials when evaluating a player. I also think there is a discussion around how "real" a teams success or lack of success is over time. Whether your a fan and just having a conversation. Or a GM and trying to figure out where the real issues and opportunities are on your team. Or whether your a coach and trying to figure out if what your doing is sustainable or if you need to make tweaks to stay successful (or stay the course if you aren't having success). The analytics guy that the Fan 960 brings in to talk every week tells you that they are not to be used for predictions. They are only indicators of higher probabilities. This would be why you see the resistance to these ideas. They are help up as truths and soothsaying when they should never be used that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
conundrumed Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 I'll join Kulstad here. As one that isn't a fan of stats, I wouldn't post here, we've had that discussion. I'm obviously reading the thread, and like to read what they're coming up with. But I'm not a hardcore stats guy. Out of respect for those that like to dig into stats, they should be allowed to do so without getting nagged every step of the way regardless of how erroneous or esoteric I or anyone else finds it. It isn't really a debate, it's more making a mockery of it. That thread has sailed as Kulstad linked out. If people enjoy doing something, don't beat them down about it. Give them their space, start your own threads about what YOU like and give these posters the latitude to enjoy their hobbies without constantly having to defend themselves. Now that the penny is obsolete, just my nickel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmac70 Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 And that's the problem with the so called advance stats world. There is nothing new about the advance world other than someone decided to document things and take ownership of the new Revelation. What DD stated is a perfect example of this topic. Not sure who made the statement, it provides illumination not support on certain aspects of the game. Advance stats "Predicting a possible probability, by documenting it ". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kehatch Posted January 17, 2015 Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 Have you ever been in the bandwagon thread? I have read it. Never posted. Not my thing. Which is the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheersMan Posted January 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2015 The analytics guy that the Fan 960 brings in to talk every week tells you that they are not to be used for predictions. They are only indicators of higher probabilities. This would be why you see the resistance to these ideas. They are help up as truths and soothsaying when they should never be used that way. Exactly. Statistics are the crunching and manipulating of numbers, numbers which accrued in the past. Historical numbers do not predict the future. ------------ Some take offense when people make statements such as, “clearly told us that this would happen” “it was entirely predictable” “It is staggering how often the metrics correctly predict future results” -------------- Nothing can predict the future, not even fancy stats. As DD pointed out, they are just indicators of higher probabilities and if they were sold to us that way we would likely give those more room to express their hobbies and maybe we could even find an interest in it. Show us the indicators before the outcome, tell us what you think might happen, but don’t wait until after the event and then say, “see, fancy stats predicted that”. ----------------- I didn’t mean to offend anyone with earlier posts here, was just having a little fun. I will try to be a little more tolerant to fancy stats moving forward because I do have an interest in stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flyerfan52 Posted January 18, 2015 Report Share Posted January 18, 2015 Have you ever been in the bandwagon thread? I doubt it DD. Remember the hostesses have standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flyerfan52 Posted January 18, 2015 Report Share Posted January 18, 2015 Exactly. Statistics are the crunching and manipulating of numbers, numbers which accrued in the past. Historical numbers do not predict the future. ------------ Some take offense when people make statements such as, “clearly told us that this would happen” “it was entirely predictable” “It is staggering how often the metrics correctly predict future results” -------------- Nothing can predict the future, not even fancy stats. As DD pointed out, they are just indicators of higher probabilities and if they were sold to us that way we would likely give those more room to express their hobbies and maybe we could even find an interest in it. Show us the indicators before the outcome, tell us what you think might happen, but don’t wait until after the event and then say, “see, fancy stats predicted that”. ----------------- I didn’t mean to offend anyone with earlier posts here, was just having a little fun. I will try to be a little more tolerant to fancy stats moving forward because I do have an interest in stats. If used as supporting part of an arguement/rebutal I have no problem. When it's the core & goes against what happens in the real world I prefer to rely on what viewing tells the fans rather than fans of those #s over possibility if everything goes according to what the #s say . If it were a static league without trades or the players getting better/worse as the season progresses it could predict what happens. That doesn't happen. *********************************************************************************************** In real life 1 seemingly insignicant event starts a chain of reactions. If this happens the entire scheme of things gets turned around. You felt full of energy & walked to work rather than waking up bleary eyed & walk into the path of a bus. Would we be what we are now if we'd selected Nurse instead of Monahan to go back to a hockey related slant. They were similarly rated & we had needs @ both positions. *********************************************************************************************** 1 injury can change a team. The #s obviously change but fancy stats tend to dwell on top end players. Yet that 4th D being injured causes restructuring of that top 4 to try to get best possible results. If you've ever tossed a stone in a pool you see that result. Tossing 2 gives a different 1. Even the wind variation causes a different result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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