Flames & Losing For Higher Draft Order.

[DirtyDeeds]

Just to stir this Bees Nest a bit:

 

I am officially declaring the new draft system/odds as a failure. Not only did the much lower odds of getting 1st overall added with the 3 top spots being lotto not stop teams from tanking.... It might have made things worse.

 

Once a team is officially out of the playoff run, it is not important to those teams intent on tanking that they have 40% or 30 % or 20% chance at 1st spot. It is just important that they get the best odds available under whatever system the NHL has implemented.

 

That is where the NHL failed to foresee what we are seeing now. Their thinking that the odds were low enough that the teams would not tank is flawed.

 

Expect to see the "Oiler Rule" implemented should they win #1 overall pick again.

[darth_henning]

Personally I think that Lotto odds should be weighted ...

 

in reverse. 

 

 

Lowest place finisher has the worst chance, increasing through the 14 teams till the one closest to the playoffs has the best chance. 

 

17 - 7.8

18 - 7.7

19 - 7.6

20 - 7.5

21 - 7.4

22 - 7.3

23 - 7.2

24 - 7.1

25 - 7.0

26 - 6.9

27 - 6.8

28 - 6.7

29 - 6.6

30 - 6.5

 

 

THere's only a 1.5% difference between the teams, but it encourages teams to be as competitive as possible right to the end of the season. 

 

With the additional rule that any team that wins the lottery is ineligible for the lottery so long as that player remains on their roster. 

[robrob1974]

Just to stir this Bees Nest a bit:

I am officially declaring the new draft system/odds as a failure. Not only did the much lower odds of getting 1st overall added with the 3 top spots being lotto not stop teams from tanking.... It might have made things worse.

Once a team is officially out of the playoff run, it is not important to those teams intent on tanking that they have 40% or 30 % or 20% chance at 1st spot. It is just important that they get the best odds available under whatever system the NHL has implemented.

That is where the NHL failed to foresee what we are seeing now. Their thinking that the odds were low enough that the teams would not tank is flawed.

Expect to see the "Oiler Rule" implemented should they win #1 overall pick again.

I think teams need the help of the 1st overall and high picks. I think they should make it a straight up, same odds lottery for teams that range from last overall in the league to maybe 6-8 last overall.

It would make for a very good lottery show if they actually telecast the balls pulled live.

[The_People1]

Personally I think that Lotto odds should be weighted ...

 

in reverse. 

 

 

Lowest place finisher has the worst chance, increasing through the 14 teams till the one closest to the playoffs has the best chance. 

 

17 - 7.8

18 - 7.7

19 - 7.6

20 - 7.5

21 - 7.4

22 - 7.3

23 - 7.2

24 - 7.1

25 - 7.0

26 - 6.9

27 - 6.8

28 - 6.7

29 - 6.6

30 - 6.5

 

 

THere's only a 1.5% difference between the teams, but it encourages teams to be as competitive as possible right to the end of the season. 

 

With the additional rule that any team that wins the lottery is ineligible for the lottery so long as that player remains on their roster. 

 

For the sake of creating parity and helping bad teams get better faster, the worst teams are rewarded the higher picks.

For the sake of preventing dishonest finish in the standings, a lottery is put into place.

 

Your idea does not address "helping bad teams get better" and punishes virtue (teams that actually do suck will have a tough time improving through the draft).  This might be the single worst idea ever and you should go to your room without supper today.

  

 

Just to stir this Bees Nest a bit:

 

I am officially declaring the new draft system/odds as a failure. Not only did the much lower odds of getting 1st overall added with the 3 top spots being lotto not stop teams from tanking.... It might have made things worse.

 

Once a team is officially out of the playoff run, it is not important to those teams intent on tanking that they have 40% or 30 % or 20% chance at 1st spot. It is just important that they get the best odds available under whatever system the NHL has implemented.

 

That is where the NHL failed to foresee what we are seeing now. Their thinking that the odds were low enough that the teams would not tank is flawed.

 

Expect to see the "Oiler Rule" implemented should they win #1 overall pick again.

I think teams need the help of the 1st overall and high picks. I think they should make it a straight up, same odds lottery for teams that range from last overall in the league to maybe 6-8 last overall.

It would make for a very good lottery show if they actually telecast the balls pulled live.

Or, freeze the last 10 games position-wise and then the best record of teams outside of the playoffs that are last overall to the 8th last get the best odds.

I don't think the latter idea works as well. But I agree, it's not working this year because I see even more tank jobs and little effort.

 

You are right Deeds, the current draft system is a failure.  But I would extend that to say any weighted lottery system is a failure.

 

Rob, why 6-8 last overall?  Then teams in the 8 to 14 range will tank to the bottom 8.  Just make it non-weighted for all teams that miss the playoffs.

[travel_dude]

I think teams need the help of the 1st overall and high picks. I think they should make it a straight up, same odds lottery for teams that range from last overall in the league to maybe 6-8 last overall.

It would make for a very good lottery show if they actually telecast the balls pulled live.

Or, freeze the last 10 games position-wise and then the best record of teams outside of the playoffs that are last overall to the 8th last get the best odds.

I don't think the latter idea works as well. But I agree, it's not working this year because I see even more tank jobs and little effort.

 

I think it would be too confusing for the fans to understand.  Here is the process:

 

To determine the winner, the official lottery machine is loaded with 14 balls, each bearing one number, 1 to 14. The NHL Draft Lottery involves drawing one set of four numbers from the machine. One ball is expelled from the machine at a ten-second interval until four balls are discharged.

 

Without regard to the order the numbers are drawn, there are exactly 1,001 four-number combinations. Each of the 14 teams in the NHL Draft Lottery is assigned the number of combinations corresponding to the odds allocated to them by their regular-season finish (i.e., the team given a 20% chance to win the NHL Draft Lottery is represented by 200 of the 1,001 possible combinations, the team with a 13.5% chance is assigned 135 combinations, and so forth). One combination (11, 12, 13, 14) has been designated as a "re-draw," allowing for the division of exactly 1,000 combinations proportionately.

 

All number combinations are assigned to teams at random by Bortz & Company.

 

The video of the actual lottery drawing will be available on NHL.com after the reveal.

[robrob1974]

For the sake of creating parity and helping bad teams get better faster, the worst teams are rewarded the higher picks.

For the sake of preventing dishonest finish in the standings, a lottery is put into place.

Your idea does not address "helping bad teams get better" and punishes virtue (teams that actually do suck will have a tough time improving through the draft). This might be the single worst idea ever and you should go to your room without supper today.

You are right Deeds, the current draft system is a failure. But I would extend that to say any weighted lottery system is a failure.

Rob, why 6-8 last overall? Then teams in the 8 to 14 range will tank to the bottom 8. Just make it non-weighted for all teams that miss the playoffs.

It's because I worry, like you just said about the last place teams needing to get better, that they outright keep losing the lottery and end up drafting mid round.

If you go no odds, teams need to draft in the order they finished the season in the later rounds. Say 5th worst team wins the lotto, they draft 1stOA and then they draft in the 35th spot in the 2nd round...

I just think those lower teams do need that higher pick.

Or they can freeze the standings after the trade deadline. Then trades are Made specifically to help teams in the playoffs and not tank. Teams wanting to trade away are just getting picks in return and not getting rid of guys to lose more games.

[DirtyDeeds]

Just an additional note:

 

Most posts have been targeting just the high 1st round top picks. However each year this affects where that team also picks in each additional round.

 

So when the Oilers were picking 1st overall, they also picked first in the 2nd round, 3rd round, 4th round etc which is also a big advantage especially on deep draft years.

[cross16]

Just an additional note:

 

Most posts have been targeting just the high 1st round top picks. However each year this affects where that team also picks in each additional round.

 

So when the Oilers were picking 1st overall, they also picked first in the 2nd round, 3rd round, 4th round etc which is also a big advantage especially on deep draft years.

 

Actually the lottery is only for the first round. The rest of the rounds follow the standings in reverse.

 

that's why you see in years where teams win the lottery, Florida in 2014 for example, the 30th place team still gets the first pick in other rounds. 

[The_People1]

It's because I worry, like you just said about the last place teams needing to get better, that they outright keep losing the lottery and end up drafting mid round.

 

I think we should be okay to sacrifice parity if we can gain virtue and honesty.

 

Darth suggested we actually penalize bad teams, which is wrong.  Just don't guarantee them top picks and that's enough to deter tanking.

[ABC923]

I like the idea of basing draft order at least partially on where teams sit at the deadline.  Then there is less need for a team to trade away it's starting goalie for scraps *cough*Toronto*cough* or any other low value veterans that might keep you out of the basement.  I don't like vastly convoluted schemes though, so in some ways I would almost prefer a straight up reverse order draft where the team that picked first overall last year picks no better than 14th this year.

[AlbertaBoy12]

I like the idea of basing draft order at least partially on where teams sit at the deadline.  Then there is less need for a team to trade away it's starting goalie for scraps *cough*Toronto*cough* or any other low value veterans that might keep you out of the basement.  I don't like vastly convoluted schemes though, so in some ways I would almost prefer a straight up reverse order draft where the team that picked first overall last year picks no better than 14th this year.

I like the idea I saw suggested in a article on sportsnet, its similar to what you suggested. The teams standings are weighted based on the number of points earned from the time you are eliminated to the end of the season. So for example a team like toronto eliminated say 10 games ago, would have more time to earn points then say a team like boston who might be eliminated in the last game of the season. This system makes alot of sense, and apparantly I didnt do the math, but oilers would have still won the mcdavid sweepstakes in this system. I think it encourages teams to still try to be competitive, but if you lose you lose its ok. At the end of the day it encourages being competitive but the bad teams will be eliminated earlier so should still win in principal.

[DirtyDeeds]

Actually the lottery is only for the first round. The rest of the rounds follow the standings in reverse.

 

that's why you see in years where teams win the lottery, Florida in 2014 for example, the 30th place team still gets the first pick in other rounds. 

yeah totally put my point wrong.

 

When we draft for our pool the player who drafts 1st overall does not draft first in the 2nd 3rd and 4th rounds they reverse the order each round to even things out. So the guy who gets last pick in 1st round then gets the 1st pick in the 2nd round.

 

The real draft does not do this rather the basic order is followed for each round with the exception of the loto draws in the first. (which you pointed out correctly). This is a nice advantage for all teams who draft early in each round.

[Flyerfan52]

Since none of us is likely to be a high draft pick I'll ask you to put yourself in their skates.

Would you rather be drafted 1st OA by a team that obviously tanked for you but looks to have no chance of being in the playoffs soon or later in the round by a team that missed the playoffs due to injuries & the like but look to have a bright future? Like playoffs in your 1st/2nd year?

 

Option 1: Immediate highest ELC but little chance of meaningful games for a big part of your career. Good chance of a high 2nd contract as the team is so bad you'll never get good complementary players so they want to lock you up.

Option 2: Probably lower ELC but if you are part of a contending core that brings the team deep into playoffs your 2nd contract reflects that. You also stand a better chance of skating around with a big respected shiny old trophy held over your head. SC  or WC?

[420since1974]

If I was a high draft pick and had a choice, I would pick Option # 2.

 

If you're not a high pick, you have to consider that the average NHL career is only 5.5 seasons, and you may want to go for the money as early as possible.

[Jessemadnote39]

Who really purposely lost and won the cup because of it?

[DKim]

Who really purposely lost and won the cup because of it?

 

Pittsburgh tanked for Lemieux in 83-84 and eventually won the cup in 91 and 92. They tanked again for Crosby in 03-04 and won the cup in 09.

 

It can be argued that in 03-04 they didn't tank on purpose, because they just plain sucked, but the Lemieux tank was very clearly an orchestrated tank job.

 

Chicago had a few bad seasons that they turned into Toews and Kane and cups.

[robrob1974]

LA was also bad for a long time and ended up with Doughty as a high pick.

Detroit sucked for the longest time before becoming a model franchise.

Teams like Edmonton and Columbus have had a hard time building around their high picks. Look at Nash for the longest time.

Even Vancouver nearly won a cup by picking high at 2&3 with the Sedins.

Boston was bad for awhile too, but got better at drafting. There doesn't have to be the full tank, but picking in the top 5-10 consistently for a few years really helps.

[kehatch]

The Flames have picked 4, 6, and converted a first into Hamilton in the last three seasons.  This season we should pick top 5 again.  It isn't like we don't have top picks.  

 

I think people get to caught up on the first overall pick.  McDavid is probably an exception, but the five drafts prior to that the first overall likely isn't going to be the top player out of the draft.  

 

Rather then whining that we aren't bad enough I would prefer to take comfort in who we have.  Gaudreau could very well be the top player from the 2011 draft.  Monahan could very well be the top player from the 2013 draft.  Brodie and Hamilton are likely top 5 players from their drafts.  The jury is out on Bennett but so far so good.  

 

I would much rather say we have the top player from the draft then say we got the top pick in the draft. 

[phoenix66]

The Flames have picked 4, 6, and converted a first into Hamilton in the last three seasons. This season we should pick top 5 again. It isn't like we don't have top picks.

I think people get to caught up on the first overall pick. McDavid is probably an exception, but the five drafts prior to that the first overall likely isn't going to be the top player out of the draft.

Rather then whining that we aren't bad enough I would prefer to take comfort in who we have. Gaudreau could very well be the top player from the 2011 draft. Monahan could very well be the top player from the 2013 draft. Brodie and Hamilton are likely top 5 players from their drafts. The jury is out on Bennett but so far so good.

I would much rather say we have the top player from the draft then say we got the top pick in the draft.

Agreed..as a fan it's fun to numb the disappointment and basement watch.but realistically I think we will end up picking 5-7. There's gonna be a really good player available. We really don't need another centre so if we can nab a top D prospect or a scoring winger I'll see it as a win

[MAC331]

Agreed..as a fan it's fun to numb the disappointment and basement watch.but realistically I think we will end up picking 5-7. There's gonna be a really good player available. We really don't need another centre so if we can nab a top D prospect or a scoring winger I'll see it as a win

If we are 1-5 our positioning is very good. If 5-10 we still get a good player.

[phoenix66]

If we are 1-5 our positioning is very good. If 5-10 we still get a good player.

Yup..1-5 you get a player highly probable to play next year 5-10 is a good player maybe a year or 2 away.

[CheersMan]

The Flames have picked 4, 6, and converted a first into Hamilton in the last three seasons.  This season we should pick top 5 again.  It isn't like we don't have top picks.  

 

I think people get to caught up on the first overall pick.  McDavid is probably an exception, but the five drafts prior to that the first overall likely isn't going to be the top player out of the draft.  

 

Rather then whining that we aren't bad enough I would prefer to take comfort in who we have.  Gaudreau could very well be the top player from the 2011 draft.  Monahan could very well be the top player from the 2013 draft.  Brodie and Hamilton are likely top 5 players from their drafts.  The jury is out on Bennett but so far so good.  

 

I would much rather say we have the top player from the draft then say we got the top pick in the draft. 

 

Coincidence?  Maybe our coaching staff can be credited for developing prospects into very good hockey players?

[phoenix66]

So at the moment we sit in 5th pick spot.barring the lottery, the highest we can end up drafting is 4th, lowest is 6th

We beat minnesota and Winnipeg loses to LA (both likely) then it's 6the

We have to lose to Minnesota and Columbus has to beat both Buffalo and Chicago.

Don't see them getting both

Realistically I see us losing to Minnesota and Columbus getting only maybe one of those games.. So 5th seed is our likely destination for the lottery

[darth_henning]

For the sake of creating parity and helping bad teams get better faster, the worst teams are rewarded the higher picks.

For the sake of preventing dishonest finish in the standings, a lottery is put into place.

 

Your idea does not address "helping bad teams get better" and punishes virtue (teams that actually do suck will have a tough time improving through the draft).  This might be the single worst idea ever and you should go to your room without supper today.

 

 

Not sure how you get that. 

 

If a team is the worst team in the league, even if they lose the lottery they get the 2nd pick (or first if the win the lottery). 2nd worst guarunteed 3rd pick or better, etc. 

 

But it also discourages team from intentionally sucking. The more games they win, even if they can't make the playoffs, the better their chance (marginally) of getting the 1st overall pick. 

 

The truly bad teams still get most of the best picks, and the teams that may be bad, but at least try to be competitive may get rewarded. 

 

That's also why I suggested the additional rule of "no more #1 picks while you still have your last one" so that should a bubble team get a top pick, they aren't helped by the lottery again if they just miss, which would then proportionally increase the chances of the other teams.

 

We'd see a lot more competitive atmosphere in the league I think if teams were never really "out" of the mix of playing to win the most games possible. 

[DirtyDeeds]

Coincidence?  Maybe our coaching staff can be credited for developing prospects into very good hockey players?

BH does not get near enough credit for his handling of top prospects. Some posters here are way too busy trying to lobby opinion on his faults than recognize some of his plus's.