Goaltending

[tincup1]

I've always liked James Reimer ever since his Red Deer Rebels days.  TO is a mess so I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit the open market in July.  At 27, I have to believe he's got some good years left.  Wonder what a 4 year deal would cost ?  Calgary's goalie situation has to be keeping BT up at night.

[MAC331]

I've always liked James Reimer ever since his Red Deer Rebels days.  TO is a mess so I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit the open market in July.  At 27, I have to believe he's got some good years left.  Wonder what a 4 year deal would cost ?  Calgary's goalie situation has to be keeping BT up at night.

I think the Flames would be wise to keep their goaltending in a short term situation until Mr.Right is determined.

[tincup1]

I think the Flames would be wise to keep their goaltending in a short term situation until Mr.Right is determined.

 

 

Maybe but look what that gave the Flames this year.  Top 5 goalie cost and worst goaltending in the league.  I'd give Reimer term, mostly because I like him but also because it would reduce his cost.

[cross16]

I've always liked James Reimer ever since his Red Deer Rebels days.  TO is a mess so I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit the open market in July.  At 27, I have to believe he's got some good years left.  Wonder what a 4 year deal would cost ?  Calgary's goalie situation has to be keeping BT up at night.

With Ramo hurt he is clearly the best fa option available so I'm a bit worried about what it would take. Martin Jones had never been a starter and he got over 3 mill, talbot turned half a season of average caliber starting play into 4 million, Ramo with limited NHL experience got 3.8 and so on and so on.

I'd keep the deal to 3 years or less personally I just don't like long term deals unless it's a legit starter and I'm not sure Reimer is that. If the flames could do a 2 or 3 year deal for less than 4 million I would be interested but I feel like him being th top fa on the market will mean he'll get more and I wouldn't do that. Reimer has good stats on a bad team but he is very inconsistent so handing him 50-60 games a year worries me.

[jjgallow]

I don't think that starting Hiller tonight says anything about his thoughts on Ortio. 

I think starting Hiller tonight has everything to do with giving a vet a chance to turn things around in his head.

If BH had no faith at all in Ortio they likely would not have called him up.

 

Edit: Where is our goaltending coach and what is he effectively doing to help our goaltending situation?

JJ  Interesting goalies perspective on training from DD to read.

https://www.nhl.com/news/unmasked-devan-dubnyk-james-reimer-goalie-training/c-278977846

 

 

DD, thanks for posting all this great info on DD

 

 

Some really interesting approaches Francilia has there.  And very impressive record.

https://twitter.com/AFRANcilia

 

The Flames need someone/something like this, imho.   Maybe not exactly this person or this format.   But they're simply NOT developing their goalies well.

 

First and foremost....the organization is not even keeping their goalies healthy.  That matters, especially for development.    No healthy goalies, no development.   Sure, you can say it's luck.  But we're talking major season-ending injuries to Ortio, Gillies, Ramo, and even Hiller's had his share.   I already know many people will say it's not fair to blame this on the organization.  But it's not about blame.  It's about whether they can make improvements.  And the answer is almost definitely yes.  And I don't mean by keeping three goalies on the Flames and hoping two stay healthy.

 

As well, we're just Not seeing goaltender development.  The latest victim might be Poulin.  Some on here were saying that Poulin is the new Ortio.  Which is ridiculous considering Ortio's talent level and Poulin's age.  But, at any account, Poulin is Already regressing after half a season in our system:

http://theahl.com/stats/gamebygame.php?id=3117

 

Gillies?  no development

 

Ortio?  Barely played, and no development for two years really.

 

It's not fair to point fingers.   It's really not, and I know that.

 

But I think it is fair to say that the Flames can, and probably should, make improvements in their goaltender development system.

[tincup1]

With Ramo hurt he is clearly the best fa option available so I'm a bit worried about what it would take. Martin Jones had never been a starter and he got over 3 mill, talbot turned half a season of average caliber starting play into 4 million, Ramo with limited NHL experience got 3.8 and so on and so on.

I'd keep the deal to 3 years or less personally I just don't like long term deals unless it's a legit starter and I'm not sure Reimer is that. If the flames could do a 2 or 3 year deal for less than 4 million I would be interested but I feel like him being th top fa on the market will mean he'll get more and I wouldn't do that. Reimer has good stats on a bad team but he is very inconsistent so handing him 50-60 games a year worries me.

 

I agree with everything you say.  I think of Reimer as a 1A so he's going to need help and a salary that allows for that.  That said, the Flames more than anyone would likely roll the dice a little bit.  If they up the term to 4 years, they might land him at a reasonable cap hit.  I know it's a gamble but his age is good, he's a western guy, and he's been on a bad team his entire career.  I think he has some upside.

[cccsberg]

Maybe but look what that gave the Flames this year.  Top 5 goalie cost and worst goaltending in the league.  I'd give Reimer term, mostly because I like him but also because it would reduce his cost.

Look, in two years we're going to have two young goalies, at least, chomping at the bit waiting for their opportunity.  Giving anybody 4 years is a mistake unless its clear he can be our #1 for the foreseeable future.  

[tincup1]

Look, in two years we're going to have two young goalies, at least, chomping at the bit waiting for their opportunity.  Giving anybody 4 years is a mistake unless its clear he can be our #1 for the foreseeable future.  

 

I think it's a mistake to give Gillies or McDonald a clear path, they should have to win the job or steal it away from someone.  Internal competition is healthy.

[cccsberg]

DD, thanks for posting all this great info on DD

 

 

Some really interesting approaches Francilia has there.  And very impressive record.

https://twitter.com/AFRANcilia

 

The Flames need someone/something like this, imho.   Maybe not exactly this person or this format.   But they're simply NOT developing their goalies well.

 

First and foremost....the organization is not even keeping their goalies healthy.  That matters, especially for development.    No healthy goalies, no development.   Sure, you can say it's luck.  But we're talking major season-ending injuries to Ortio, Gillies, Ramo, and even Hiller's had his share.   I already know many people will say it's not fair to blame this on the organization.  But it's not about blame.  It's about whether they can make improvements.  And the answer is almost definitely yes.  And I don't mean by keeping three goalies on the Flames and hoping two stay healthy.

 

As well, we're just Not seeing goaltender development.  The latest victim might be Poulin.  Some on here were saying that Poulin is the new Ortio.  Which is ridiculous considering Ortio's talent level and Poulin's age.  But, at any account, Poulin is Already regressing after half a season in our system:

http://theahl.com/stats/gamebygame.php?id=3117

 

Gillies?  no development

 

Ortio?  Barely played, and no development for two years really.

 

It's not fair to point fingers.   It's really not, and I know that.

 

But I think it is fair to say that the Flames can, and probably should, make improvements in their goaltender development system.

Sure there is always room for improvement, in EVERY area.  However most of your points were kind of comical, and hey, a good laugh is a good thing.  Thanks.  No need to refute all your points, not sure you'd be listening.

 

Oh, BTW, I guess you overlooked how terrible the Wild are with their goalies.  They are absolutely destroying their Vezina-level goalie this year..... His Sv% and GAA are dropping precipitously.

I think it's a mistake to give Gillies or McDonald a clear path, they should have to win the job or steal it away from someone.  Internal competition is healthy.

Of course competition is healthy.  They will be seriously competing against each other, plus whomever the Flames already have in place.  Its just that if they likely will be ready in 2 years, its poor management to have another (lessor) guy signed for 2 additional years.  Doesn't that kind of sound familiar?  Like, exactly the problem we have at the moment with a bunch of guys that needed to be gone last year?

[tincup1]

Sure there is always room for improvement, in EVERY area.  However most of your points were kind of comical, and hey, a good laugh is a good thing.  Thanks.  No need to refute all your points, not sure you'd be listening.

 

Oh, BTW, I guess you overlooked how terrible the Wild are with their goalies.  They are absolutely destroying their Vezina-level goalie this year..... His Sv% and GAA are dropping precipitously.

Of course competition is healthy.  They will be seriously competing against each other, plus whomever the Flames already have in place.  Its just that if they likely will be ready in 2 years, its poor management to have another (lessor) guy signed for 2 additional years.  Doesn't that kind of sound familiar?  Like, exactly the problem we have at the moment with a bunch of guys that needed to be gone last year?

 

I'd love to see Gillies/McDonald pass Reimer in 2 years but Reimer is a 27 year old with over 200 starts and a .914 save percentage on a bad hockey team.  To assume Gillies / McDonald will pass him in 2 years is very optimistic.  I hope it happens but I'd hedge my bets.

[cross16]

I agree with everything you say.  I think of Reimer as a 1A so he's going to need help and a salary that allows for that.  That said, the Flames more than anyone would likely roll the dice a little bit.  If they up the term to 4 years, they might land him at a reasonable cap hit.  I know it's a gamble but his age is good, he's a western guy, and he's been on a bad team his entire career.  I think he has some upside.

 

Term scares me more than dollars do in the cap world. I think you get into problem more by giving up too many years and not by giving out too many dollars. a 4 year deal for Reimer and I'd be scared that you'd be looking at an anchor of a deal in the last year or two. Id be willing to maybe stretch it to 4-4.5 range and keep it 3 years or less than go longer to bring the cap hit down. Goalies come and go far too often for me to be comfortable putting more than 3 years into someone I don't fully believe in. 

[MAC331]

Maybe but look what that gave the Flames this year.  Top 5 goalie cost and worst goaltending in the league.  I'd give Reimer term, mostly because I like him but also because it would reduce his cost.

I think Reimer is no more than a back up goalie, sorry, not on my target list.

[cccsberg]

I'd love to see Gillies/McDonald pass Reimer in 2 years but Reimer is a 27 year old with over 200 starts and a .914 save percentage on a bad hockey team.  To assume Gillies / McDonald will pass him in 2 years is very optimistic.  I hope it happens but I'd hedge my bets.

We agree on hopes for our prospects.  As for the interim, why not just re-sign Ramo for 1 or 2 years.  We already know what he brings, albeit the injury is new.  I believe he's the most likely, and best option we currently have.  If we can bring in another AHL-level guy with promise that would be good too.

[jjgallow]

Sure there is always room for improvement, in EVERY area.  However most of your points were kind of comical, and hey, a good laugh is a good thing.  Thanks.  No need to refute all your points, not sure you'd be listening.

 

Oh, BTW, I guess you overlooked how terrible the Wild are with their goalies.  They are absolutely destroying their Vezina-level goalie this year..... His Sv% and GAA are dropping precipitously.

 

Well....I'm glad you got a good chuckle....I don't listen much on here, that's true.  But I do read from time to time.  Not sure what you're talking about with the Wild, really.

 

The future of the Wild is Darcy Kuemper, and Darcy's having his best year ever:

https://www.nhl.com/player/darcy-kuemper-8475311

 

Dubnyk's career was revitalized there, and while he is slightly off of last year's phenomenal numbers, he is still performing significantly better than any goaltender in our system.

 

Their prospects, Michalek and Khakonen, continue to show improvement this year.

 

And the icing on the cake:    Their top AHL goalie is having the best year of his career.   On a team like ours, it would easily be call-up worthy.

 

You may have heard of him:

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?encode=TRUE&pid=77285

[cccsberg]

Well....I'm glad you got a good chuckle....I don't listen much on here, that's true.  But I do read from time to time.  Not sure what you're talking about with the Wild, really.

 

The future of the Wild is Darcy Kuemper, and Darcy's having his best year ever:

https://www.nhl.com/player/darcy-kuemper-8475311

 

Dubnyk's career was revitalized there, and while he is slightly off of last year's phenomenal numbers, he is still performing significantly better than any goaltender in our system.

 

Their prospects, Michalek and Khakonen, continue to show improvement this year.

 

And the icing on the cake:    Their top AHL goalie is having the best year of his career.   On a team like ours, it would easily be call-up worthy.

 

You may have heard of him:

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?encode=TRUE&pid=77285

On your original, long post you seemed to be focusing on ST changes i.e. Poulin, which was my point with Dubnyk.  Also you commented on no development with Gillies.. Really.  Like I said, a good laugh.  In any case, YES, we need to bring someone in as our (hopefully) LT guys still at least a year or two away (in an ideal world).  I would like to see Ortio and Poulin given the rest of the season to see if either steps up and we can utilize them as the Flame's back-up for next year.

[MAC331]

Well....I'm glad you got a good chuckle....I don't listen much on here, that's true.  But I do read from time to time.  Not sure what you're talking about with the Wild, really.

 

The future of the Wild is Darcy Kuemper, and Darcy's having his best year ever:

https://www.nhl.com/player/darcy-kuemper-8475311

 

Dubnyk's career was revitalized there, and while he is slightly off of last year's phenomenal numbers, he is still performing significantly better than any goaltender in our system.

 

Their prospects, Michalek and Khakonen, continue to show improvement this year.

 

And the icing on the cake:    Their top AHL goalie is having the best year of his career.   On a team like ours, it would easily be call-up worthy.

 

You may have heard of him:

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?encode=TRUE&pid=77285

I wouldn't be afraid to have Irving as a back up here.

[cccsberg]

I wouldn't be afraid to have Irving as a back up here.

I think that ship has sailed.  We need to do better.

[jjgallow]

On your original, long post you seemed to be focusing on ST changes i.e. Poulin, which was my point with Dubnyk.  Also you commented on no development with Gillies.. Really.  Like I said, a good laugh.  In any case, YES, we need to bring someone in as our (hopefully) LT guys still at least a year or two away (in an ideal world).  I would like to see Ortio and Poulin given the rest of the season to see if either steps up and we can utilize them as the Flame's back-up for next year.

 

There is a bit of a difference between Poulin and Dubnyk.  To be completely honest, it may not be fair, but Poulin probably has 5-10 games left to show what he can do.    So yes, those games matter.  And they're not currently helping.

 

Gillies is anticipated to be back in 2-3 weeks (original timeline of early March).  No, he's not developing (obvisouly) right now, and no, I don't blame that on the Flames.  However, he didn't show much development in his last year of college either.   No we know why...a degenerative hip flexor.   Had they signed him a year earlier (like they probably should have with a goalie they supposedly have faith in), and properly diagnosed his condition, he either wouldn't have needed the surgery, or it would have been more minor, and completed by now.

 

Soooo.....room for...improvement.

 

So realistically, Poulin's days are numbered.  Nothing against him.  Just a bad time to regress.

 

Ortio, we don't know what he is.  All we know is that he is capable of far more than he has shown in the Extremely limited action the organization has given him this year.   Blame that on him, blame it on whatever...

 

I don't think Gillies, or Ortio, or Poulin, can be truly evaluated this year.  That's unfortunate, and that's why I think they need to look at improvements to their development system.

I wouldn't be afraid to have Irving as a back up here.

 

I think he could have been an NHL starter if handled differently.  But I'm probably alone there.   Glad to see he's made his way back to the edge of the NHL.

[cccsberg]

There is a bit of a difference between Poulin and Dubnyk.  To be completely honest, it may not be fair, but Poulin probably has 5-10 games left to show what he can do.    So yes, those games matter.  And they're not currently helping.

 

Gillies is anticipated to be back in 2-3 weeks (original timeline of early March).  No, he's not developing (obvisouly) right now, and no, I don't blame that on the Flames.  However, he didn't show much development in his last year of college either.   No we know why...a degenerative hip flexor.   Had they signed him a year earlier (like they probably should have with a goalie they supposedly have faith in), and properly diagnosed his condition, he either wouldn't have needed the surgery, or it would have been more minor, and completed by now.

 

Soooo.....room for...improvement.

 

So realistically, Poulin's days are numbered.  Nothing against him.  Just a bad time to regress.

 

Ortio, we don't know what he is.  All we know is that he is capable of far more than he has shown in the Extremely limited action the organization has given him this year.   Blame that on him, blame it on whatever...

 

I don't think Gillies, or Ortio, or Poulin, can be truly evaluated this year.  That's unfortunate, and that's why I think they need to look at improvements to their development system.

 

I think he could have been an NHL starter if handled differently.  But I'm probably alone there.   Glad to see he's made his way back to the edge of the NHL.

Hmm, Gillies back early March?  I had been thinking he was gone for the season.  That would be good news, though I'm guessing the Flames will be very cautious in bringing him back slowly.  

 

I agree Poulin not likely with the Heat next year, that's why I'd like to see him up on the Flames, along with Ortio for the rest of the season.  Have them fight it out to see if either is an option for backup duties there next year.  Hiller, to me is as good as gone.

[MAC331]

I think that ship has sailed.  We need to do better.

Why ? I never think your back up should be your potential #1 and the #1 should be playing the majority of games if he is any good at all. Players like Gilles and MacDonald you want playing and developing right up to the time their play dictates an opportunity to the NHL team.

There is a bit of a difference between Poulin and Dubnyk.  To be completely honest, it may not be fair, but Poulin probably has 5-10 games left to show what he can do.    So yes, those games matter.  And they're not currently helping.

 

Gillies is anticipated to be back in 2-3 weeks (original timeline of early March).  No, he's not developing (obvisouly) right now, and no, I don't blame that on the Flames.  However, he didn't show much development in his last year of college either.   No we know why...a degenerative hip flexor.   Had they signed him a year earlier (like they probably should have with a goalie they supposedly have faith in), and properly diagnosed his condition, he either wouldn't have needed the surgery, or it would have been more minor, and completed by now.

 

Soooo.....room for...improvement.

 

So realistically, Poulin's days are numbered.  Nothing against him.  Just a bad time to regress.

 

Ortio, we don't know what he is.  All we know is that he is capable of far more than he has shown in the Extremely limited action the organization has given him this year.   Blame that on him, blame it on whatever...

 

I don't think Gillies, or Ortio, or Poulin, can be truly evaluated this year.  That's unfortunate, and that's why I think they need to look at improvements to their development system.

 

I think he could have been an NHL starter if handled differently.  But I'm probably alone there.   Glad to see he's made his way back to the edge of the NHL.

Anyone good wasn't going to have much of a chance when Kiprusoff was here.

[cross16]

 

 

Gillies is anticipated to be back in 2-3 weeks (original timeline of early March).  No, he's not developing (obvisouly) right now, and no, I don't blame that on the Flames.  However, he didn't show much development in his last year of college either.   No we know why...a degenerative hip flexor.   Had they signed him a year earlier (like they probably should have with a goalie they supposedly have faith in), and properly diagnosed his condition, he either wouldn't have needed the surgery, or it would have been more minor, and completed by now.

 

 

He took the team, some games on his back, and won an NCAA title. IMO, thats a pretty big step forward so I disgree we didn't show much development. I remember when they sent him back, Burke said they while he was playing well he wasn't putting a team on his back and winning them games and he wanted to see that. MIssion accommplisehd, IMO.

 

and I don't think development has had any baring on the injury and neither does Gilles.

 

http://www.calgarysun.com/2016/02/13/calgary-flames-goaltending-prospect-jon-gillies-taking-recovery-day-at-a-time

 

“The first time I got checked out, it wouldn’t have mattered if I played hockey or not,” Gillies said. “I would have had the same problem. It was just the way my hip-joint was set up, and I was going to have to have the bone shaved down anyway.

[jjgallow]

Why ? I never think your back up should be your potential #1 and the #1 should be playing the majority of games if he is any good at all. Players like Gilles and MacDonald you want playing and developing right up to the time their play dictates an opportunity to the NHL team.

Anyone good wasn't going to have much of a chance when Kiprusoff was here.

 

In the last 10 years, if you take each year's Stanley Cup winning goalie, and look at how many Regular season games they played that year, it's 48.7 games.  And only Two out of those 10 goaltenders played over 60 games.  Both were very young.  Go back another 10 years, the results are similar.

 

49 games, just under 50, is the magic number of games played in the regular season for Cup-winning goaltenders.  Under 60 games is the magic number for strong performance in the post-season.

 

It's not a coincidence.  Burnout, and even injury (Ramo...) is a Real thing.  No matter how good your goaltender is, over-playing them rarely gets you close to the cup.

 

A contender team should not need to play their 1A every game in the regular season to make the playoffs.

 

 

I would prefer a more even split.  Say 50 games to 32 games.    And with that, you can also develop your best prospect properly in the NHL.

[MAC331]

In the last 10 years, if you take each year's Stanley Cup winning goalie, and look at how many Regular season games they played that year, it's 48.7 games.  And only Two out of those 10 goaltenders played over 60 games.  Both were very young.  Go back another 10 years, the results are similar.

 

49 games, just under 50, is the magic number of games played in the regular season for Cup-winning goaltenders.  Under 60 games is the magic number for strong performance in the post-season.

 

It's not a coincidence.  Burnout, and even injury (Ramo...) is a Real thing.  No matter how good your goaltender is, over-playing them rarely gets you close to the cup.

 

A contender team should not need to play their 1A every game in the regular season to make the playoffs.

 

 

I would prefer a more even split.  Say 50 games to 32 games.    And with that, you can also develop your best prospect properly in the NHL.

TX for digging this up, it is good to know. Back to Irving when he was here I thought he had good potential however it has to be hard for any back up to come in and shine on such a random basis. Sporatic appearances likely leads to sporatic type performance or not unlike the small samples of judgement on players not playing on lines or pairings that display their talents to the best advantage.

 

Coming off this season I will not be surprised to see two new faces for our goaltending.

[jjgallow]

He took the team, some games on his back, and won an NCAA title. IMO, thats a pretty big step forward so I disgree we didn't show much development. I remember when they sent him back, Burke said they while he was playing well he wasn't putting a team on his back and winning them games and he wanted to see that. MIssion accommplisehd, IMO.

 

and I don't think development has had any baring on the injury and neither does Gilles.

 

He was very good in the playoffs, yes.   It's a grey area, my arguement is definitely on thin ice so to speak.  I'm more referring to how long he went without getting diagnosed and treated properly.    Which Gillies would and did agree with.   The price you pay for not being able to develop your goalies within your own system.  IMHO he was signed a year late. 

[robrob1974]

I'd love to see Gillies/McDonald pass Reimer in 2 years but Reimer is a 27 year old with over 200 starts and a .914 save percentage on a bad hockey team. To assume Gillies / McDonald will pass him in 2 years is very optimistic. I hope it happens but I'd hedge my bets.

They will likely need a year or two in the AHL. Then a year or two as a backup goalie. If we are looking at the way someone like Schneider developed, then 4 years for a starter could be good.

Although in 3 years is when someon like Gillies should be competing for a spot. He probably needs 2 full seasons in the AHL.

Macdonald probably has a few more years to develop.

I don't think it is safe to assume that both are going to be developed and ready to go in 3 years. They can probably use a year as a back up in the NHL as well. They're not exactly high end pedigree and even Schneider who was took extra years to get there.

Rask is another one who teams were patient about his development and played years as a backup.

He was very good in the playoffs, yes. It's a grey area, my arguement is definitely on thin ice so to speak. I'm more referring to how long he went without getting diagnosed and treated properly. Which Gillies would and did agree with. The price you pay for not being able to develop your goalies within your own system. IMHO he was signed a year late.

What does that have to do with his injury?

The one thing that makes sense JJ, is playing your goalie 50 games and bringing in your prospect to play 30.

With a Reimer, you can do that. I am not saying get Reimer, but using him as an example.