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Compliance Buyouts Around The League... Who Do You Predict?


DL44

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For the most part, i think we will only see a handful of these since most teams will not be hard pressed to make a $60 mil cap for the 13-14 season...

But of the ones that will be up there ($50+ mil already committed to their rosters next yr)..

who do you see going?

Vancouver @ $55.4 mil, 13 players... Ballard's $4.2. (+ Luongo trade = plenty of room for status quo)

Calgary @ 48 mil, 14 players... - only cuz this is a Flames site - let's say Cammy's $6mil.

Boston @ $57 mil, 16 players... will have Savard on LTIR (-4mil). MAYBE Peverley's 2 yrs @ $3.3 mil to resign Horton.

SJ @ $54 mil, 14 players... MAYBE Stuart's 2 yrs at $3.6.. but not necessary. Boyle's $6.7 mil if they want a shake up.

Chicago @ $57 mil, 17 players... Lots - Montador (2.8mil), Folik (2.3 mil), Oduya (3.4 mil unlikely since it has 2 yrs left).

Buffalo - They HAVE to let Lieno go... STEEP price with 4 yrs at $4.5 mil left = $12 mil into the garbage to buy him out... ouch.

Montreal is OVER next yr @ $ 60.1 mil.. no brainer.. Gomez's $7.3 mil hit with just a $4.5 mil salary.

TB @ $58 mil, 15 players... Maybe Malone's 2 yrs @ $4.5 mil.

Everyone else will have plenty of roster space to fill out and/or scoop those above that get bought out...

I think Montreal is the only team technically over the $60 mil next season..

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For the most part, i think we will only see a handful of these since most teams will not be hard pressed to make a $60 mil cap for the 13-14 season...

But of the ones that will be up there ($50+ mil already committed to their rosters next yr)..

who do you see going?

Vancouver @ $55.4 mil, 13 players... Ballard's $4.2. (+ Luongo trade = plenty of room for status quo)

Calgary @ 48 mil, 14 players... - only cuz this is a Flames site - let's say Cammy's $6mil.

Boston @ $57 mil, 16 players... will have Savard on LTIR (-4mil). MAYBE Peverley's 2 yrs @ $3.3 mil to resign Horton.

SJ @ $54 mil, 14 players... MAYBE Stuart's 2 yrs at $3.6.. but not necessary. Boyle's $6.7 mil if they want a shake up.

Chicago @ $57 mil, 17 players... Lots - Montador (2.8mil), Folik (2.3 mil), Oduya (3.4 mil unlikely since it has 2 yrs left).

Buffalo - They HAVE to let Lieno go... STEEP price with 4 yrs at $4.5 mil left = $12 mil into the garbage to buy him out... ouch.

Montreal is OVER next yr @ $ 60.1 mil.. no brainer.. Gomez's $7.3 mil hit with just a $4.5 mil salary.

TB @ $58 mil, 15 players... Maybe Malone's 2 yrs @ $4.5 mil.

Everyone else will have plenty of roster space to fill out and/or scoop those above that get bought out...

I think Montreal is the only team technically over the $60 mil next season..

And there is probably a good chance that the $60M gets negotiated up slightly. Even $62M or $63M would make the buyout almost unnecessary

(And I agree on Ballard, though probably nothing, for Van)

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Prediction, not necessarily what I would do.

Anaheim - none

Boston - Savard*

Buffalo - Leino

Calgary - Stajan

Carolina - none

Chicago - Olesz

Colorado - none

Columbus - none

Dallas - none

Detroit - none

Edmonton - Horcoff

Florida - none

LA - Williams

Minnesota - Heatly

Montreal - Gomez

Nashville - none

New Jersey - Volchenkov

NYI - DiPietro

NYR - Redden

Ottawa - none

Philadelphia - Bryzgalov

Phoenix - none

Pittsburgh - Martin

San Jose - none

St. Louis - none

Tampa Bay - Lecavalier

Toronto - Komisarek

Vancouver - Ballard

Washington - Ward

Winnipeg - none

* not sure if a team is allowed to buyout injured players

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Minnesota really is going to be in trouble:

Almost $57M committed to 16 contracts, and they would still have to sign Backstrom and Clutterbuck. Plus Bouchard and Cullen if they are so inclined.

As hard as it is to imagine, you might be right Connor and they might have no choice but to buy out Heatley.

It is going to be really interesting to see how things play out - there are going to be a lot of experienced UFAs looking for work and probably willing (or at least forced) to sign cheap.

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Can't see why not, but why would you? A team gets cap relief for the injured player anyway.

Yeah but what if the player is deemed healthy? Savard still has 4 more years after this season to recover from concussion like symptoms. I doubt the insurance company wants to pay for a healthy player indefinitely.

I also don't think a team can buyout an injured player. I remember this now when I think of the whole Fraser to LA fiasco.

Minnesota really is going to be in trouble:

Almost $57M committed to 16 contracts, and they would still have to sign Backstrom and Clutterbuck. Plus Bouchard and Cullen if they are so inclined.

As hard as it is to imagine, you might be right Connor and they might have no choice but to buy out Heatley.

It is going to be really interesting to see how things play out - there are going to be a lot of experienced UFAs looking for work and probably willing (or at least forced) to sign cheap.

Minnie and Vancouver.

Even Edmonton will be right tight in a couple years if Nuge and Schultz get similar contracts to Hall and Eberle.

On the plus side, this would be a good time for a team to rebuild (Calgary) because they can sell their cap space at an absolute premium.

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Minnie and Vancouver.

Even Edmonton will be right tight in a couple years if Nuge and Schultz get similar contracts to Hall and Eberle.

On the plus side, this would be a good time for a team to rebuild (Calgary) because they can sell their cap space at an absolute premium.

I don't see Vancouver having significant problems. Buying out Ballard seems as likely as any decision, and the Luongo situation will be dealt with at some point.

Calgary won't be rebuilding or selling capspace. No matter how many times you say it, that doesn't make it any more likely to happen.

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I don't see Vancouver having significant problems. Buying out Ballard seems as likely as any decision, and the Luongo situation will be dealt with at some point.

Calgary won't be rebuilding or selling capspace. No matter how many times you say it, that doesn't make it any more likely to happen.

The Canucks are going to lose a lot of their depth with a cap drop and will likely lose Edler to free agency.

With Ballard bought out and Luongo traded for nothing with a cap hit they have 45ish million in:

2013-14 Roster

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows = 16.7

Booth-Kesler-Hansen = 10.35

?-?-Kassian = .87

?-?-? =

EXTRA:?

Garrison-Bieksa = 9.2

Hamhuis-? = 4.5

?-?

EXTRA: ?

Scneider, ? = 4

Total = 45.67

That is a shadow of their President's trophy depth charts.

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1) unlikely, IMO, that they lose Edler

2) using your assumptions, they still have $14M to spend (assuming $60M which is not a very safe assumtion at this point)

3) the discussion was complying with the cap. As I said, it won't be too difficult. Whether or not they are as good as they have been over the last couple years, well... an awful lot is going to happen between now and then so it's far too early to speculate.

(P.S. to be clear - no one wants them to suck any more than I do)

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The Canucks are going to lose a lot of their depth with a cap drop and will likely lose Edler to free agency.

With Ballard bought out and Luongo traded for nothing with a cap hit they have 45ish million in:

2013-14 Roster

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows = 16.7

Booth-Kesler-Hansen = 10.35

?-?-Kassian = .87

?-?-? =

EXTRA:?

Garrison-Bieksa = 9.2

Hamhuis-? = 4.5

?-?

EXTRA: ?

Scneider, ? = 4

Total = 45.67

That is a shadow of their President's trophy depth charts.

Missing a few people Connor..

Altho i'm afraid of losing Edler since he'll be one of the prime jewels if he hits UFA status.. I'll hold on to hope he'll be made a priority signing by Gillis.

The more realistic Canuck picture before player trades other than Luongo...

Sedin - Sedin - Burrows - Top line in tact

Booth - Kesler - X (Jensen 900K)

Kassian - X - Hansen (Gaunce 1 mil, Schroeder RFA)

X - Weise (RFA 600K) - X (countless options for this line at min)

Garrison - Edler

Hamhuis - Bieksa

Tanev RFA - X (Connauton RFA, Corrado 600K)

Schneider / Lack (750K)

Likely gone - Ballard, Higgens, Luongo, Malhotra, Raymond,

Maybe - Lapierre, Alberts could be brought back as the 6/7.

Also filling a hole or 2 will be the Luongo return...

Overall, Holes? yes.

But still strong enough to challenge the 1 seed agin considering the D is in tact and the fact all the top end talent (xEdler) is signed... and once you factor the shuffles that other top teams will be going thru, Vancouver is sitting pretty good with their salary structure next yr.

IF Schneider lives up to what people are hoping despite his measly 68 gm career.

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1) unlikely, IMO, that they lose Edler

2) using your assumptions, they still have $14M to spend (assuming $60M which is not a very safe assumtion at this point)

3) the discussion was complying with the cap. As I said, it won't be too difficult. Whether or not they are as good as they have been over the last couple years, well... an awful lot is going to happen between now and then so it's far too early to speculate.

(P.S. to be clear - no one wants them to suck any more than I do)

Edler will be a minimum 5 mil cap hit player. If they re-sign him the bottom 6 forwards are going have to be ELC and or minor leaguers.

Missing a few people Connor..

Altho i'm afraid of losing Edler since he'll be one of the prime jewels if he hits UFA status.. I'll hold on to hope he'll be made a priority signing by Gillis.

The more realistic Canuck picture before player trades other than Luongo...

Sedin - Sedin - Burrows - Top line in tact

Booth - Kesler - X (Jensen 900K)

Kassian - X - Hansen (Gaunce 1 mil, Schroeder RFA)

X - Weise (RFA 600K) - X (countless options for this line at min)

Garrison - Edler

Hamhuis - Bieksa

Tanev RFA - X (Connauton RFA, Corrado 600K)

Schneider / Lack (750K)

Likely gone - Ballard, Higgens, Luongo, Malhotra, Raymond,

Maybe - Lapierre, Alberts could be brought back as the 6/7.

Also filling a hole or 2 will be the Luongo return...

Overall, Holes? yes.

But still strong enough to challenge the 1 seed agin considering the D is in tact and the fact all the top end talent (xEdler) is signed... and once you factor the shuffles that other top teams will be going thru, Vancouver is sitting pretty good with their salary structure next yr.

IF Schneider lives up to what people are hoping despite his measly 68 gm career.

The depth chart I put up was all the players that have contracts for the 2013-14 season and have played on the Canucks.

Lets see a depth chart with salaries. I don't see how the Canucks afford Edler unless they trade Booth.

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The depth chart I put up was all the players that have contracts for the 2013-14 season and have played on the Canucks.

Oh I know... But you left off the RFAs to make the picture appear more bleak than it really is. How many other teams have 7 outta their top 9 signed.. or 3 of their top 4 D. (And wouldn't expect you to know about our prospects, so I understand that part)

Lets see a depth chart with salaries. I don't see how the Canucks afford Edler unless they trade Booth.

The players I added, I put their salaries if they were signed.

The ones I didnt - its easy to predict approximations...

Wiese - 600k

Tanev - 800k

Schroeder - min

Connauton - 750k

4th line - 500 - 600 - 700

Xtra F: 500

Xtra D: 800k

So its easy to to begin to see the potential structure.. I'm on my phone so I don't feel like toggling back n forth with a calculator... But it looks like that team fits under the cap... With Booth and Edler...

Edit: at work computer now...

Hypothetical team of:

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows - 16.7

Booth-Kesler-Jensen - 9.2

Kassian-Schroeder(min)-Hansen - 2.7

600-600-600/600 - 2.4

Garrison-(Edler) - 4.6

Hamhuis-Bieksa - 9.1

Tanev(800)-800/Connauton(800) - 2.4

Schneider/Lack - 4.8

~22 plyrs - 52 mil.

Edler easily fits... and then some xtra room as well.

And the the xtra space could be used on upgrades on the budget plugs i put in.. ie. depth D man (like an Alberts), or quality 9-12th foward like Lapierre... or splurge on fitting Higgens back... or on the piece or 2 coming back for Luongo.

Canucks are sitting with some good flexibility anyway i look at it.

There are other teams not as flexible or set up as well..

Also keep in mind that a $60 mil cap is also unlikely... seems to be a starting point... with rumors of the PA coming back with $67mil cap... i could see it being $62-64 mil at the end of the day... i.e. no problems in Vancouver for Gillis/Gilman to do their cap dance.

In terms of your own club Connor... With the new proposal of the rookie bonuses not counting against the cap till they're actually achieved.. The Oilers have $8+ mil in bonuses next yr... That will likely not count against you cap to start the season. You guys will have plenty of room, and make it highly unlikely Katz/Lowe throw away $4.6 mil to buyout the 2 yrs of Horcoff's remaining contract.

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http://www.truehockey.com/articles/CBA-BreakdownWhere-Were-At

Latest NHL proposal has moved to allow TWO compliance buyouts per team to get to the cap.

Battle over whether it should all count towards players' share or not.

Shouldn't be a big deal since as we've figured out most teams will be fine... but some of the big markets with now have a greater level of flexibility to burn extra cash if they feel like it...

The rangers who will likely buyout Redden and be just fine, may take advantage to buyout a Gaborik if they wished to take a run at Getzlaf or Perry or what the hell - Iginla if they were hitting the market...

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Edler will be a minimum 5 mil cap hit player. If they re-sign him the bottom 6 forwards are going have to be ELC and or minor leaguers.

IF the cap drops 10.2 in 1 season the UFAs are likely to see less as the big bidders will need to work on remaining cap compliant.

Last summer Edler would have easily been a $5-6 million man. With a lower cap & more stringent rules to decrease the long salaries to lower cap hit those $s will likely go down. A lot depends on if the player wants to stay with a contender (in this case Vancouver) or get a bit more in a place with better beach/golf weather during the season while kissing his chance @ a Cup goodbye.

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Calgary won't be rebuilding or selling capspace. No matter how many times you say it, that doesn't make it any more likely to happen.

I wonder why it hasn't been proposed by the NHLPA that teams can straight up trade cap space, ultimately, helping teams like the Leafs, Rangers, etc, go way over the cap by giving poor teams draft picks or the sort. So rather than having cap space wasted and stuck on poor teams, that cap space can be maximized and there will be more money on the table for the players to earn.

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I wonder why it hasn't been proposed by the NHLPA that teams can straight up trade cap space, ultimately, helping teams like the Leafs, Rangers, etc, go way over the cap by giving poor teams draft picks or the sort. So rather than having cap space wasted and stuck on poor teams, that cap space can be maximized and there will be more money on the table for the players to earn.

Because, like a luxury tax, it tilts the playing field towards the wealthy. Everything the league is doing is geared towards parity and an even playing field.

If they weren't worried about that, why not just eliminate the floor?

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Oh I know... But you left off the RFAs to make the picture appear more bleak than it really is. How many other teams have 7 outta their top 9 signed.. or 3 of their top 4 D. (And wouldn't expect you to know about our prospects, so I understand that part)

The players I added, I put their salaries if they were signed.

The ones I didnt - its easy to predict approximations...

Wiese - 600k

Tanev - 800k

Schroeder - min

Connauton - 750k

4th line - 500 - 600 - 700

Xtra F: 500

Xtra D: 800k

So its easy to to begin to see the potential structure.. I'm on my phone so I don't feel like toggling back n forth with a calculator... But it looks like that team fits under the cap... With Booth and Edler...

Edit: at work computer now...

Hypothetical team of:

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows - 16.7

Booth-Kesler-Jensen - 9.2

Kassian-Schroeder(min)-Hansen - 2.7

600-600-600/600 - 2.4

Garrison-(Edler) - 4.6

Hamhuis-Bieksa - 9.1

Tanev(800)-800/Connauton(800) - 2.4

Schneider/Lack - 4.8

~22 plyrs - 52 mil.

Edler easily fits... and then some xtra room as well.

And the the xtra space could be used on upgrades on the budget plugs i put in.. ie. depth D man (like an Alberts), or quality 9-12th foward like Lapierre... or splurge on fitting Higgens back... or on the piece or 2 coming back for Luongo.

Canucks are sitting with some good flexibility anyway i look at it.

There are other teams not as flexible or set up as well..

Also keep in mind that a $60 mil cap is also unlikely... seems to be a starting point... with rumors of the PA coming back with $67mil cap... i could see it being $62-64 mil at the end of the day... i.e. no problems in Vancouver for Gillis/Gilman to do their cap dance.

In terms of your own club Connor... With the new proposal of the rookie bonuses not counting against the cap till they're actually achieved.. The Oilers have $8+ mil in bonuses next yr... That will likely not count against you cap to start the season. You guys will have plenty of room, and make it highly unlikely Katz/Lowe throw away $4.6 mil to buyout the 2 yrs of Horcoff's remaining contract.

- Schroeder, Connauton and Tanev are making less than they are currently making under your projections.

- You only have 21 players listed which means a minimum of 1 million more would be spent to fill out the roster to make it 23.

- The players on the 4th line are very cheap. Canucks could do that but it would likely be a line of AHLers.

IF the cap drops 10.2 in 1 season the UFAs are likely to see less as the big bidders will need to work on remaining cap compliant.

Last summer Edler would have easily been a $5-6 million man. With a lower cap & more stringent rules to decrease the long salaries to lower cap hit those $s will likely go down. A lot depends on if the player wants to stay with a contender (in this case Vancouver) or get a bit more in a place with better beach/golf weather during the season while kissing his chance @ a Cup goodbye.

- Maybe Edler signs for the 4.6 million Canuck special but he is in the same ballpark as Enstrom.

I wonder why it hasn't been proposed by the NHLPA that teams can straight up trade cap space, ultimately, helping teams like the Leafs, Rangers, etc, go way over the cap by giving poor teams draft picks or the sort. So rather than having cap space wasted and stuck on poor teams, that cap space can be maximized and there will be more money on the table for the players to earn.

- I thought they proposed that a month or two ago. Must not have sticked.

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Because, like a luxury tax, it tilts the playing field towards the wealthy. Everything the league is doing is geared towards parity and an even playing field.

If they weren't worried about that, why not just eliminate the floor?

I'm not saying it would've come to being. I'm just wondering why the NHLPA didn't propose it. Unless they did and the idea got shot down to fast that before we could say 'Happy Easter', Summer was already here.

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- Schroeder, Connauton and Tanev are making less than they are currently making under your projections.

- You only have 21 players listed which means a minimum of 1 million more would be spent to fill out the roster to make it 23.

- The players on the 4th line are very cheap. Canucks could do that but it would likely be a line of AHLers.

(all the players i listed as making less than they were previously are moving from their ELC's to their first 1-ways... I don't really have to tell you that its pretty typical of players that haven't had any NHL time under their belts to sign for less than their ELC do i?)

Also, how much do you think players like Archibald, Volpatti, Ebbett, Wiese, Bitz would make for part time 4th line duty? all would realistically make an average around 600K with a $60 mil cap. And if not them.. players like them...

And thats what it was.. an average #.

Regardless.. i think my point stands..... The Canucks are sitting pretty...

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(all the players i listed as making less than they were previously are moving from their ELC's to their first 1-ways... I don't really have to tell you that its pretty typical of players that haven't had any NHL time under their belts to sign for less than their ELC do i?)

Also, how much do you think players like Archibald, Volpatti, Ebbett, Wiese, Bitz would make for part time 4th line duty? all would realistically make an average around 600K with a $60 mil cap. And if not them.. players like them...

And thats what it was.. an average #.

Regardless.. i think my point stands..... The Canucks are sitting pretty...

Depends on what you consider pretty.

IMO Tanev will likely make around 1 mil next season. I don't know about Connauton and Schroeder but likely more than league min for Schroeder.

But compare the team you are proposing to the team last year. The bottom 6 and the bottom pairing are far worse and inexperienced. The Canucks strength as a team over the years has been depth. This is something they will find nearly impossible to achieve with a 60 million cap.

At least now they can buyout Ballard and Booth. Maybe the NHL will do the Canucks a solid and make it three buyouts. (Luongo)

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Depends on what you consider pretty.

IMO Tanev will likely make around 1 mil next season. I don't know about Connauton and Schroeder but likely more than league min for Schroeder.

But compare the team you are proposing to the team last year. The bottom 6 and the bottom pairing are far worse and inexperienced. The Canucks strength as a team over the years has been depth. This is something they will find nearly impossible to achieve with a 60 million cap.

At least now they can buyout Ballard and Booth. Maybe the NHL will do the Canucks a solid and make it three buyouts. (Luongo)

Of course the team would be weaker... every team will be weaker if they cut $10 mil in salary. Its not about comparing the team to last yr's... its about where this president's trophy team stacks up relative to THE OTHER top teams. And they are sitting pretty with top end talent they have locked up.

Shedding Luongo, Ballard, Raymond, Higgens, Lapierre and replacing with (potentially):

Jensen, Schroeder, Tanev, then filling the 4th with whatever is a downgrade... but it doesn't take em out of the top 3 seeds of the conf unless Schneider craps the bed.

D - Solid

Goaltending - Supposed to be solid

Top end forward talent - Solid

2/3 of the 3rd line - good

Weise on the 4th - good enough

The big hole... 3rd line C.

Gillis has a lot of time to figure it out...

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Of course the team would be weaker... every team will be weaker if they cut $10 mil in salary. Its not about comparing the team to last yr's... its about where this president's trophy team stacks up relative to THE OTHER top teams. And they are sitting pretty with top end talent they have locked up.

Shedding Luongo, Ballard, Raymond, Higgens, Lapierre and replacing with (potentially):

Jensen, Schroeder, Tanev, then filling the 4th with whatever is a downgrade... but it doesn't take em out of the top 3 seeds of the conf unless Schneider craps the bed.

D - Solid

Goaltending - Supposed to be solid

Top end forward talent - Solid

2/3 of the 3rd line - good

Weise on the 4th - good enough

The big hole... 3rd line C.

Gillis has a lot of time to figure it out...

You guys should be ok now with a 64.3 mil cap.

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