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Luongo All But Done In Vancouver


tachaudh

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As the dust settles from Game 5 of the Canucks Kings series, it now seems like a foregone conclusion that Roberto Luongo will be traded this offseason. At least that is the impression that the media has given. He has also allegedly given a list of teams he is willing to be traded to (apparently consists of ~5 organizations including the Leafs). Prior to the playoffs, I think almost everyone thought that Schneider would be traded for some high end talent to supplement either the defensive corps or offensive line of the Canucks.

In my mind, Schneider brings a far superior return, and Luongo isn't a bad goalie. In fact, he played pretty well in the first 2 games and the early exit of the Canucks wasn't even remotely his fault. Doesn't make sense to trade Luongo in my opinion but I guess it's like walking in to a room and catching your wife straddling another man. Some relationships can be irreparably damaged.

Discuss?

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Exciting times!

I think everyone reads the writing on the wall...

I would be happy keeping either goalie.

BUT there is a lot more issues surrounding Luongo that would make sense that its him that should go.

-If we keep Luongo, its just because of significant return for Schneider.

HOWEVER, i don't think i could stand the media and fans here with the outrage that would create.

- If we keep Schneider... a lot more guaranteed immediate upgrade in positivity all around... except in one department... performance.

- But - Canucks keep the much younger goalie solidifying the position for YEARS. A luxury they haven't had since... acquiring Luongo and having him for the present 6 solid yr run.

- 'The Contract'.. unless Gillis throws another 12 yr term, the Schneider contract will be for comparable cap hit (likely less), and a lot less overall $$.

- Fresh energy, removal of a lightning rod.

yadda yadda yadda... Luongo is the more proven quality entity... but if the team continues to step up their play in front of Schneider like they did this past season, he'll be just fine.

So the question remains....

Will the difference in return be tempting enough to retain Luongo over Schneider?

If it is... and Luongo is retained, then the immediate expectation from everyone with the great hypothetical return for Schneider should be for a 3rd consecutive President's Trophy and a cup or bust mentality the next few yrs.

If i were to venture a guess... I don't think hitting a homerun with a Schneider trade is exactly necessary considering where this team already is.

I'm thinking Gillis thinks long term on this one and frees Luongo from the organization for a humble return.

Has to be to an organization without any financial strain tho...

It's in Gillis' hands... can't wait to see how this one works out... Whatever happens, i think it ALL goes down quickly at the draft - as soon as trade season commences.

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Prior to the playoffs, I think almost everyone thought that Schneider would be traded for some high end talent to supplement either the defensive corps or offensive line of the Canucks.

Yea i really thought the Canucks should've tried to trade Schneider for Martin St.Louis. Tampa needs a goalie bad and St.Louis still has 2 more good seasons left in the tank. I really think the Canucks could've gotten past the Kings if they had St.Louis and played Luongo in all the games.

It's in Gillis' hands... can't wait to see how this one works out... Whatever happens, i think it ALL goes down quickly at the draft - as soon as trade season commences.

Would it not be better to get Schneider signed first before trading Luongo? Because, once Luongo is traded, Schneider suddenly has negotiating leverage. Plus, if he's signed, depending on how much his cap hit is, it could either attract potential trades or discourage it completely.

Overall though, if you're going to trade Schneider, then it's probably best to do it while he's RFA so you don't have to deal with risking trade potential. You give him up as a clean slate to any team looking to deal with his contract.

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You make a good point, Peeps, about needing to have Schneider signed before you can trade Luongo - simply too risky to leave it up in the air and leave Schneider with massive leverage.

If I'm Schneider, I am tempted to see what kind of interest exists and if offer sheets are pending. In other words, it will be tough to sign him before July 1st -not impossible by any stretch, but challenging for sure.

Obviously, if they can't sign Schnieder before then, trading Luongo at the draft is out the window.

The problem that Gillis is facing is that Luongo has reportedly all but asked for a trade and Gillis will have no hand with negotiations. We can debate whether or not Luongo said that, but bridges are burned and it WILL be Luongo that's traded. And that being the case, Gillis will have no leverage.

I would guess a decent player and a decent pick: Connelly and a 2nd?

Schenn straight across?

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Yea i really thought the Canucks should've tried to trade Schneider for Martin St.Louis. Tampa needs a goalie bad and St.Louis still has 2 more good seasons left in the tank. I really think the Canucks could've gotten past the Kings if they had St.Louis and played Luongo in all the games.

agreed about trading Schneider... get a great return now, and ride Luongo and the upgrades in the coming seasons, and hope Eddie Lack works out as a potential candidate for the Schneider-like groom program to take over for Luongo 3 yrs from now.

Depends on how much faith they have in Lack. Gillis said today their focus is now on the Wolves to see how he performs, but concedes they may not be able to confirm till September.

Would it not be better to get Schneider signed first before trading Luongo? Because, once Luongo is traded, Schneider suddenly has negotiating leverage. Plus, if he's signed, depending on how much his cap hit is, it could either attract potential trades or discourage it completely.

Overall though, if you're going to trade Schneider, then it's probably best to do it while he's RFA so you don't have to deal with risking trade potential. You give him up as a clean slate to any team looking to deal with his contract.

Yeah... it works both ways...

If you sign Schneider 1st, it kills some negotiating leverage with Luongo.

If you trade Luongo 1st, Schneider has a little leverage on resigning.

The more prudent thing to do imo would be to pull the trade first, since at the end of the day the difference in Scheider's numbers won't be that big a deal since you're willing to commit to him no matter at that point, whereas, the return on Luongo could take a hit in quality return from Player A to B.

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The question I have is what do you all think Schneider will get for a contract whether its with the Canucks or someone else? I'm thinking a 3 yr deal somewhere in the 3.5 - 4.5 million range/yr. I may be off with that seeing as I'm not as versed like a lot of you are in these matters :).

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If I'm Schneider, I am tempted to see what kind of interest exists and if offer sheets are pending. In other words, it will be tough to sign him before July 1st -not impossible by any stretch, but challenging for sure.

Yeah... it works both ways...

If you sign Schneider 1st, it kills some negotiating leverage with Luongo.

If you trade Luongo 1st, Schneider has a little leverage on resigning.

That's true C_worthy. There are many ways the Canucks can play this but if i was Schneider, there's really just one way to play it. I would want to make "absolutely sure" there's no way the Canucks can return next season with both goalies. The way to ensure that is to go to July 1st and get an RFA offer sheet that either the Canucks cannot match or would immediately cause them to trade Luongo. The last thing i would do is to accept a $3-mil contract that's neither here nor there and allows the Canucks to go into the start of next season with two starters and ample time to pick and choose the goalie's destiny.

It sounds to me like Schneider just wants a starting job and it doesn't matter if it's in Vancouver or anywhere else. He just wants a fair shot at being a starter. He probably prefers Vancouver but that's not a must.

The question I have is what do you all think Schneider will get for a contract whether its with the Canucks or someone else? I'm thinking a 3 yr deal somewhere in the 3.5 - 4.5 million range/yr. I may be off with that seeing as I'm not as versed like a lot of you are in these matters :).

I think $3.5-per for 3 years is fair. $3-mil-per for 3 years is a win for the Canucks. Anything like $3.5-per+ for 2 years is a win for Schneider.

On the RFA market, $3.1-mil to $4.7-mil requires a compensation of 1st round + 3rd round. I'm guessing teams could push the contract limits to $4.7-mil-per and make it difficult for the Canucks to keep both Schneider and Luongo. If there's a GM out there who really wants to take a chance because he's sold on Schneider, then maybe we could see something like $4.7-mil-per for 4 years or more.

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That's true C_worthy. There are many ways the Canucks can play this but if i was Schneider, there's really just one way to play it. I would want to make "absolutely sure" there's no way the Canucks can return next season with both goalies. The way to ensure that is to go to July 1st and get an RFA offer sheet that either the Canucks cannot match or would immediately cause them to trade Luongo. The last thing i would do is to accept a $3-mil contract that's neither here nor there and allows the Canucks to go into the start of next season with two starters and ample time to pick and choose the goalie's destiny.

It sounds to me like Schneider just wants a starting job and it doesn't matter if it's in Vancouver or anywhere else. He just wants a fair shot at being a starter. He probably prefers Vancouver but that's not a must.

I expect there to be a lot more Good Faith involved in this process than you suggest.

I expect Gillis to act in good faith towards both Luongo and Schneider and act as quickly as possible..

You also expect preliminary Schneider contract talks to have already started so both sides already know their starting points..

Schneider has done nothing but present professionally and i don't expect him to flip a switch to drag proceedings after a trade has been made to sign elsewhere only to force a match.

Doesn't make sense.

I understand why you guys would be hoping for that tho, heh heh

I think $3.5-per for 3 years is fair. $3-mil-per for 3 years is a win for the Canucks. Anything like $3.5-per+ for 2 years is a win for Schneider.

On the RFA market, $3.1-mil to $4.7-mil requires a compensation of 1st round + 3rd round. I'm guessing teams could push the contract limits to $4.7-mil-per and make it difficult for the Canucks to keep both Schneider and Luongo. If there's a GM out there who really wants to take a chance because he's sold on Schneider, then maybe we could see something like $4.7-mil-per for 4 years or more.

That 3-3.5 figure would be SICK!

He is RFA so its possible.

I'm thinking Halak comparisons are fair... Halak's contract (3.75 for 4) plus a bit of inflation thrown in and i would be happy... Schneider @ $4mil for 3 or 4 seems like a great deal for him... altho still a gamble since at the end of the day he still isn't proven #1 material.

Others comparable RFAs:

Niemi - $3.8 for 4

Lehtonen - $3.6 for 3

Rinne - $3.4 for 2

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What do people think Luongo's value is?

Obviously it would require some sort of cap dump going back.

Cap dump, prospect (average), 2nd?

Louongo is a good/great goalie... But they have no leverage in this trade + the contract is so bad.... Thoguhts on possible returns?

______________________________________________

Schneider will probably get 4.5 over 4yrs. Schneider is in such a great position to get close to the max value for a new contract with Lou asking to be traded.

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I see it as the return for Schneider going up & the return for Luongo going down. This forces Gillis to make his move.

Same as the fans the GMs have little love for Vancouver. If Gillis has enough faith in Lack he should trade Schneider for the maximum return before the draft (let them worry about the cost). Cory doesn't have a NTC so he might get the BJ's #2 overall +. That, of course, means AV is gone as Gillis mends bridges with Luongo.

If it's Roberto traded the return would be smaller as the Canucks need him gone if they decide to go with Schneider.

7oungo wasn't the problem. By trading Schneider they can shore up the real weak spots.

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Said this in a different thread... But it applies here as well...

I can't see how the nucks can keep both Luongo and Schneider...

If I was making the call, I would try and unload Lou's contract on a team like Toronto and keep Schneider...

Granted, the contract goes against everything Burke has stated he has stood against, but his back is against the wall in the goal tending department (as well as others), he has to make a strong change there...

The nucks missed their big window last year... But their ousting by the Kings 4 - 1 this year in the first round as a 1st seed to the 8th seed Kings really showed their weakness in defense, as well as their failure to score enough goals to win... Even D Sedin says he and his brother have become too predictable... http://blogs.theprovince.com/2012/04/26/canucks-daniel-sedin-says-he-and-henrik-became-too-predictable/

The nucks have other issues, and the fix will take money and cap room...

Schneider is no dummy, and neither is his agent... He will be looking at a much higher dollar and secure contract than the nucks could reasonably afford if they wanted to keep both goaltenders... He will get it with the nucks, or he will get it elsewhere...

Lou is not a bad goaltender, but as I have said for the last couple of years, I think Schneider is better... If they let him go, and keep Lou instead, I would be a happy man...

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Schneider will probably get 4.5 over 4yrs. Schneider is in such a great position to get close to the max value for a new contract with Lou asking to be traded.

I agree. No way he does 3 years @ $3.5. Not sure, but I think he may be a UFA in two more years. If so, he isn't doing 3 years unless he gets paid - as in $4.5 per at least.

If Van lowballs him, he can counter by keeping it to 2 years, with UFA status looming at the end of it. Either that or he does a longer deal, 3-5 years, at a good price like $4.5 to $5m.

And that further exemplifies the conundrum that the Nucks face - they wouldn't want to trade Luo only to end up having Schneider become a UFA in 2 years.

No matter how you slice this, you realize that Schneider is going to get a good deal.

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I agree. No way he does 3 years @ $3.5. Not sure, but I think he may be a UFA in two more years. If so, he isn't doing 3 years unless he gets paid - as in $4.5 per at least.

If Van lowballs him, he can counter by keeping it to 2 years, with UFA status looming at the end of it. Either that or he does a longer deal, 3-5 years, at a good price like $4.5 to $5m.

And that further exemplifies the conundrum that the Nucks face - they wouldn't want to trade Luo only to end up having Schneider become a UFA in 2 years.

No matter how you slice this, you realize that Schneider is going to get a good deal.

In that likely rare case, that is the glory of having Eddie Lack in the system. All signs point to quality NHL goalie and heaven forbid things don't work out long-term for Schneider, we are in a better position than a lot of teams would.

Though all of this talk from you guys about "If I were Schneider I would demand this or not sign until then" you clearly don't know Schneider's character very well.

What do people think Luongo's value is?

Obviously it would require some sort of cap dump going back.

Cap dump, prospect (average), 2nd?

Louongo is a good/great goalie... But they have no leverage in this trade + the contract is so bad.... Thoguhts on possible returns?

______________________________________________

Schneider will probably get 4.5 over 4yrs. Schneider is in such a great position to get close to the max value for a new contract with Lou asking to be traded.

All it takes is two interested teams to drive the price up.

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In that likely rare case, that is the glory of having Eddie Lack in the system. All signs point to quality NHL goalie and heaven forbid things don't work out long-term for Schneider, we are in a better position than a lot of teams would.

Lack is a long way away from being a #1 goalie in the NHL - but hey, I would love to see that play out!

Though all of this talk from you guys about "If I were Schneider I would demand this or not sign until then" you clearly don't know Schneider's character very well.

His character is top-notch but that does not negate the fact taht he is 26 years old and it is time for him to make hay

All it takes is two interested teams to drive the price up.

GMs aren't stupid and everyone can see that the Nucks have no bargaining power here - which is why Gillis is trying so hard to refute Luo's comments and all the stuff that's coming out now. There will be more than one suitor. But they will all know where they stand.

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According to TSN, sounds like Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Chicago are on Luongo's short list. All 3 need a goalie.

TSN seems to think if it's Toronto, then a bad contract like Komisarek needs to come back the other way to balance cap hits. What about a Kadri + Komisarek? Or Schenn + Komisarek?

Tampa... Malone to balance the books... maybe Malone + Connelly? Unlikely Hedman due to Hedman's ceiling potential. Martin St.Louis still has a few good years left in him but is signed long term. What about a straight across St.Louis for Luongo? Unlikely the Canucks take on Lecavalier's nasty contract unless the Bolts are willing to absorb Ballard in return.

Chicago... will these rivals make a trade? Newly concussed Hossa for Luongo?

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Chicago... will these rivals make a trade? Newly concussed Hossa for Luongo?

Even with the concussion I can't see Chicago giving him up for Luongo (though it is a pretty fair contract swap). Regardless, I can't see these teams trading with each other.

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According to TSN, sounds like Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Chicago are on Luongo's short list. All 3 need a goalie.

TSN seems to think if it's Toronto, then a bad contract like Komisarek needs to come back the other way to balance cap hits. What about a Kadri + Komisarek? Or Schenn + Komisarek?

Tampa... Malone to balance the books... maybe Malone + Connelly? Unlikely Hedman due to Hedman's ceiling potential. Martin St.Louis still has a few good years left in him but is signed long term. What about a straight across St.Louis for Luongo? Unlikely the Canucks take on Lecavalier's nasty contract unless the Bolts are willing to absorb Ballard in return.

Chicago... will these rivals make a trade? Newly concussed Hossa for Luongo?

Vancouver will not be landing Kadri or Connelly in a trade for lou.

Yes I know who lou is, and what he has done, but 2 extremely important factors come in to play.

1. Cap hit/ Term. 5.33 for 10yrs?

2. Vancouver is not in a position to negotiate when they have to clear his contract to make room for Schnieders.

Returns:

TB : Malone + 2nd (maybe detroit's 1st)

TML: Komi + 2nd + average prospect.

Chicago: Hossa for Lou would be very interesting... Long term contract for long term contract.

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2. Vancouver is not in a position to negotiate when they have to clear his contract to make room for Schnieders.

This is not a valid argument. Do you really think Toronto is in a position to negotiate when they clearly need a goalie? Yes, there are other goalies available out there but none as established as Luongo. Plus, the Canucks have a few teams interested so all in all, i think both teams don't have the upper hand on the other.

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I think Gillis is in a tough situation here, like someone said both goalies hold all the cards on this one. Not only that the other gms are licking thier chops on how to steal one of them for nothing.

for example; if Luongo asked for trade it will give some power to the teams on his list, so good move by Gillis on deny it. Not only that I think Gillis is not dealing within strength here cause schneider is not signed so by that the power goes back to Luongo and if schneider was signed I can`t see them spending that much on thier cap, so the power would be in the gms hands that are on his list.

Not only that the other gms that arent on the list are thinking lets screw them too by an offer sheet of somewhere like 4.5mil but gillis can stop that by take schneider to arbitration and if he does that schneider could get upset cause, know player likes to go their let alone be taken their by the team, In which I think is worse than a player taken them thier.

I personaly think if luongo is geting traded he has to do it before or at the draft other wise it could get a lot more interesting. I do think luongo is worthy of some juciy stuff but if we go by feaster message, a gms job is about screwing the other gms over and heres a chance for 29 gms to do that to gillis and the canucks.

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This is not a valid argument. Do you really think Toronto is in a position to negotiate when they clearly need a goalie? Yes, there are other goalies available out there but none as established as Luongo. Plus, the Canucks have a few teams interested so all in all, i think both teams don't have the upper hand on the other.

I'm sorry The_People... We will just had to agree to disagree. My argument is valid. Of course Toronto is in a position to negotiate when your dealing with an albatross contract like Louongo. Don't be silly. This kind of contract can really hurt an organization.

Toronto can trade/sign so many other decent/quality choices for net.. yes Louongo might be the most experienced, but his contract/term and hit are terrible. Burke hates those long front loaded contracts.... To think that your gonna land their best prospect, or a quality young defence-man in Schenn is silly.

Harding, Lindback, Enroth, Bernier, maybe even Kipper are on the market... Your getting a (in most cases) younger goalie, with the chance to structure a contract to your liking... 10yrs is to much.

_____

As for the bolded. You just don't know that. Thats just an ignorant statement. Louongo has apparently submitted a short list to Gillis, but that was denied too... Could teams be interested? Yes... probably. What teams have come out and said they are interested in Louongo? Please attach a link? It would be tampering...

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I think Gillis is in a tough situation here, like someone said both goalies hold all the cards on this one. Not only that the other gms are licking thier chops on how to steal one of them for nothing.

for example; if Luongo asked for trade it will give some power to the teams on his list, so good move by Gillis on deny it. Not only that I think Gillis is not dealing within strength here cause schneider is not signed so by that the power goes back to Luongo and if schneider was signed I can`t see them spending that much on thier cap, so the power would be in the gms hands that are on his list.

Not only that the other gms that arent on the list are thinking lets screw them too by an offer sheet of somewhere like 4.5mil but gillis can stop that by take schneider to arbitration and if he does that schneider could get upset cause, know player likes to go their let alone be taken their by the team, In which I think is worse than a player taken them thier.

I personaly think if luongo is geting traded he has to do it before or at the draft other wise it could get a lot more interesting. I do think luongo is worthy of some juciy stuff but if we go by feaster message, a gms job is about screwing the other gms over and heres a chance for 29 gms to do that to gillis and the canucks.

Gillis is obviously going to act like he's moving ahead into the new season with 2 goalies and have no urgency to trade one of them. That's his best way to get the most out of a trade.

Behind the scenes though, he's entertaining calls and working on getting Schneider signed long term.

Toronto can trade/sign so many other decent/quality choices for net.. yes Louongo might be the most experienced, but his contract/term and hit are terrible. Burke hates those long front loaded contracts.... To think that your gonna land their best prospect, or a quality young defence-man in Schenn is silly.

I really hope you are right but i'm afraid Luongo has more trade value than you seem to believe simply because Luongo is a top 10 goalie in the NHL and will be for another 3 years before we see decline in his play due to age. For a team like Toronto who needs the playoffs bad, you got to just worry about winning now. Luo's contract is bad and that's why the Canucks have to absorb a bad contract in return to make it fair. Komisarek's contract is pretty brutal and maybe Phaneuf's contract too. After you toss some bad money over the Canucks way, then you get back a decent player.

I don't think Kadri's ceiling is that high. You're looking at a one-dimensional winger who can peak at 30-goals and 55-points. Something like a Devin Setoguchi type of player if/when everything pans out for him.

Schenn was once thought to be the second coming of Adam Foote but it's looking more like he won't even come close to making that kind of impact in the NHL.

To say Toronto is giving Kadri/Schenn + Komisarek is not to say they are giving up much.

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Not only that the other GMs that aren't on the list are thinking lets screw them too by an offer sheet of somewhere like 4.5mil but Gillis can stop that by take Schneider to arbitration and if he does that Schneider could get upset cause, no player likes to go there let alone be taken there by the team, In which I think is worse than a player taking them there.

It would get even more interesting if taken to arbitration (regardless of who initiated it).

Schneider's agent has a good argument for 4.5+ as the playoffs showed the team has more trust in him then their 5.33 starter(?).

It can prevent offer sheets but put Gillis in a tough spot. If Luongo isn't traded before the decision it could leave him with $10 million tied up in goal so the GMs on the short list could low-ball the return on Roberto further(even the failure of confidence the Canucks showed has already given them a reason). If he walks away from the ruling Schneider becomes UFA but if he accepts Cory can't be traded that year gutting his bargaining position for Luongo further.

Schneider is a standup guy but his agent might convince him that after spending most of his career earning AHL $s it's time to make the big bucks (& the corresponding cut for the agent). & the rumors of a possible rollback in the new CBA would hurt less with a salary of 4.5 rather then 3.5.

This will be 1 of the most interesting things to follow.

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Gillis is obviously going to act like he's moving ahead into the new season with 2 goalies and have no urgency to trade one of them. That's his best way to get the most out of a trade.

Behind the scenes though, he's entertaining calls and working on getting Schneider signed long term.

I really hope you are right but i'm afraid Luongo has more trade value than you seem to believe simply because Luongo is a top 10 goalie in the NHL and will be for another 3 years before we see decline in his play due to age. For a team like Toronto who needs the playoffs bad, you got to just worry about winning now. Luo's contract is bad and that's why the Canucks have to absorb a bad contract in return to make it fair. Komisarek's contract is pretty brutal and maybe Phaneuf's contract too. After you toss some bad money over the Canucks way, then you get back a decent player.

I don't think Kadri's ceiling is that high. You're looking at a one-dimensional winger who can peak at 30-goals and 55-points. Something like a Devin Setoguchi type of player if/when everything pans out for him.

Schenn was once thought to be the second coming of Adam Foote but it's looking more like he won't even come close to making that kind of impact in the NHL.

To say Toronto is giving Kadri/Schenn + Komisarek is not to say they are giving up much.

Thanks for this post. I actually went away and thought about returns... I agree with how you explained this... I could see Kadri + Komi.

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This is not a valid argument. Do you really think Toronto is in a position to negotiate when they clearly need a goalie? Yes, there are other goalies available out there but none as established as Luongo. Plus, the Canucks have a few teams interested so all in all, i think both teams don't have the upper hand on the other.

Thomas is rumored to be being shopped, so is Kipper, Vokoun is UFA, Harding.

Burke is in no way obligated to deal with Van and likely won't. He hates the long contracts, hates the NTCs and sure if Van gives him a song of a deal he will take it but Burke is hardly obligated to deal with Van.

If I had money to put on where Luo goes it would be Florida or TB - both teams need a G. Florida has a ton of Cap room and TB is a completely starved for a G. TB trade is easy. Ryan Malone and the Cap hit works fine both ways...

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Thomas is rumored to be being shopped, so is Kipper, Vokoun is UFA, Harding.

Burke is in no way obligated to deal with Van and likely won't. He hates the long contracts, hates the NTCs and sure if Van gives him a song of a deal he will take it but Burke is hardly obligated to deal with Van.

If I had money to put on where Luo goes it would be Florida or TB - both teams need a G. Florida has a ton of Cap room and TB is a completely starved for a G. TB trade is easy. Ryan Malone and the Cap hit works fine both ways...

I get what you are saying with Toronto but that applies exactly to FLA and TB too. You can equally say Phaneuf and the Cap hit works fine both ways... Bryan Campbell and the Cap hit works fine both ways... Plus, Thomas is rumored to be being shopped, so is Kipper, Vokoun is UFA, Harding.

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