Quarter way through the season

[bosn111]

Ok we have passed the quarter mark of the season. 24 games is enough games to look at trends and consider possible future outcomes.

 

The Flames currently sit 1st in the pacific, 1st in the West though Edmonton and Minnesota have games in hand which could move them ahead.

 

They have been great on the road, less so at home but far from bad. A great first quarter has them in a good position where they are not fighting from the back of the pack. Not winning many blowouts, lots of close games so they shouldn’t be feeling high and mighty rather we have worked hard to be here and need to keep working hard to stay here.

 

 I hope both goalies can stay hot, but we all knew their stats were unsustainable long term. As long as they can both stay near the top of tender stats the Flames will have a solid season.

 

The forwards as a whole are having a good start to the season. Overcoming offseason and early season injuries has delayed performance by a few (Monahan, Pitlick, Richardson) but overall they are playing well regardless of line combinations. 
 

The defence has been very good to start. The goalies have been great and saved a bunch of mistakes by D men but in order to have so many shut outs already means the D has also supported the goalies. I would say that Kylington and Valimaki are a microcosm of the Flames over the past few seasons. While Valimaki jumped into a big league role directly, even after a serious injury, he had a lot of leash to work with and hasn’t had the expected results from the experience. Kylington was given a much tougher ride and needed to fight through challenges and disappointment before getting an opportunity and running with it. Now Kylington is playing top 4 and very well and Valimaki has been sent down to the AHL.

 

The Flames a few seasons ago when they were best in the west regular season, they faced little disappointment and few challenges. Players were in roles that seemed to be given rather than earned (except Bennett). This year Monahan was pushed down to 4th line and has worked up to 3rd. Mangiapane playing 2nd line as earned. Kylington, Hanifin and Andersson playing top 4. Lewis, Richardson, Pitlick all bottom 6 and playing roles asked of them, Coleman not left in top 6 just because. Accountability under Sutter has been very important.

 

 If I look at Individual players ratings, I would say these would be them (I am taking into account cap hit and results).

 

Great start

Mangiapane on track for 60 goals. Not likely to hit that, but a career year with 40+ is not out of the question. Currently only 2 goals away from his career high of 18 which took him 56 games.

 

Gaudreau has 27 points already with 9 goals. Likely ending with 30+ goals and might break 100 points. Beyond the offence he is also getting back defensively and I have seen him throw a couple of good body checks. He seems to be rounding out his game under Sutter and it is creating more space for him on offence.

 

Lindholm is on track to be a PPG player and 30+ goals. He has been very steady at C and is doing everything he needs to do. At under 5 mil, he is exactly what the Flames need.

 

Kylington already has a career high in goals, assists and points. Playing with Tanev has developed into a Giordano/Brodie caliber pairing. They just fit. He still makes the odd mistake, but he is greatly improved and has earned his spot.

 

Tanev for steadying the D, helping anyone he plays with. He may never be an offensive dynamo and likely will never win the Norris for that reason, but it is no wonder that Flames D has improved the past 2 years while the Canucks have faltered.

 

Markstrom is hard to argue with a 1.76 .939 start with a significant lead in shut outs. Hard to predict final stats, but if he can keep close, the Flames will be successful.

 

Vladar has been the best backup Flames have had in years. 5-0-1 to start with shut outs and 1.78 .939. Again hard to predict but if he can maintain this pace or close it will help Flames chances for sure.

 

Very good Start

 

Tkachuk has had a very good start. Hasn’t been quite the same pest of the past and his offence is not as high as Johnny, or the same goals as Mangiapane. As top salary I can’t place him at excellent. On track for 40 goals (more likely 30 something) and around 80 points he should end up close to a PPG player. For his salary he should be over that in a contract year looking for 9 mil+. If he was under 5 mil I would consider this excellent.

 

Andersson and Hanifin will sit at this spot together. They are a very good pair and are both double digit plus players. While their offence isn’t where we would hope, they are playing much better defensively and the offence should come.

 

Lewis and Richardson both fit here as they are doing exactly what is needed from 4th liners making only 800 k.

 

Good start

 

Backlund is having a good start. Steady on 2nd line considering the revolving line mates, but at over 5 mil, his offence needs to be better to be ranked higher.

 

Coleman for the same reasons as Backlund. Steadies his line mates but at his contract he needs to add more offence.

 

Lucic is on track for 20+ goals which is great for him, but for his contract we should get more. If his cap hit was in the 2.5 - 3 range I would have him in the very good start level.

 

Gudbranson is doing exactly what a bottom pair D needs to do. He is one of my good surprises as he is doing better than I expected.

 

Average start

 

Dube has been playing well but with limited offence he is not where he should be, especially when making over 2 mil.

 

Pitlick hasn’t been bad, but also not doing a lot to stand out. If he was paid like Lewis and Richardson I would call his play good, but at almost 2 mil, I can only say average.

 

Zadorov has been steady, but again 3.75 is very expensive for a bottom pair D who is not a special teams specialist.

 

Disappointing start

 

I don’t see Monahan staying at this level, and the off season surgery needs to be taken into account, but a former top line C known as a perennial 30+ goal getter to be down in the bottom 6, on track for 12 goals making over 6 mil is disappointing.

 

Valimaki was a high draft pick. Playing on the big club last year he has spent a lot of time in the press box and recently demoted. Outplayed by 2 D who seemed to be questionable signings, this is definitely a disappointment.

 

Not enough data

 

Stone getting in only 1 game, he remains the perfect 7th D. Can’t complain as he makes so little.

 

 

Thoughts?

[travel_dude]

So much to digest.  I tend to agree with the way you have rated most players.  To me it seems that some of the line choices impact the players more than others.

Dube has lost the player he blended well with; Mangiapane.  He plays well with Backlund as well.

Coleman with Pitlick didn;t work.

Backlund with Mangiapane is a known quantity.

We saw Monahan's best game with Coleman and Lewis, so you know that the skills are there below the surface.

Backlund can;t really carry Lucic.

Lucic fits a certain style and speed.

 

The D is funny.  

Hanifin is a better fit with Ras, but he's still playing like a 3/4.

They actually play less minutes some nights than the 2nd pair.

Tanev can play with anyone not name Zadorov or Gudbranson.

It makes sense; Tanev needs a mobile guy with him.

You could possibly swap Hanifin and Kylington and not see a big difference.

Kylington knows when his partner is pinching, but Hanifin gets caught too far up at times.

You know that Hanifin-Tanev works.

 

The goalies have been really good.

What used to be an automatic goal is not anymore.

Markstrom has a few holes, but mostly he covers them.

He's exposed when the D takes the guy with the puck and the one timer comes from the other guy.

Markstrom challenges the main shooter well.

Dan is hard to pinpoint any real weakness.

He made several saves that I though were goals.

He was deadly on the shootout.

 

The home record is concerning but not killing us.

Two regulation losses.

Three OT/SO losses.

Last OTL was first week of November.

Worst loss at home was 4-1 to Sharls, which was 2 EN goals.

2nd worse loss at home was 4-2, which was a tie up to 5 minutes left and an EN goal.

 

Key to fixing the home record is not letting up in the 3rd.

If we get to OT, managing the extra time well.

Two games related to players falling or being out way too long.

NAS - Backlund and Tkachuk both fell/tripped in the O-zone, leaving Hanifin alone to cover.

DAL - Gaudreau and Backlund and Tanev playing too long and not able to defend.

The loss to ANA was Hanifn and Monahan both trying to go through a crowd, left it open. 

[conundrumed]

I'm in agreement across the board. I'm glad that you touched on adversity and we haven't really had any.

I think we have a good roster to deal with any. Good pieces that can move around the roster.

The 1st line has been great. They play simple. JG and Tkachuk have been great tossing the puck to each other across ice. Doesn't have to be tape-to-tape when both are great at fishing the puck. Lindholm is stalwart defensively and a dangerous trailer. The 1st line is working great.

Backlund has been nails imo. He's playing aggressive defensively and in the neutral zone and I'm loving the edge he's playing with. Even if he's taking penalties I'm okay with that because they are typically aggression penalties. Salary vs pts with him doesn't matter much to me. Mangia's driving tons of offence due to Backlund's play imho.

Always respected Backlund's 200' game but also thought he rarely plays with an edge. Now I think he's the captain, personifying what this team wants to be - hard to play against.

I believe Sutter is handling Monahan masterfully. He hasn't been 100% in quite some time and Sutter's building his game back with great patience. I think Mony's getting a bit better game by game. When he's fully back up to speed, I think he'll be the difference-maker that we used to know. I'll go out on a limb and say he'll end up pumping 25 this year. What's impressing me has been his passing and puck pursuit in the o-zone, creating turnovers.

Most importantly for me, is at long last the Flames have stopped laying a giant egg when the backup gets the start.

 

[travel_dude]

13 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

I believe Sutter is handling Monahan masterfully. He hasn't been 100% in quite some time and Sutter's building his game back with great patience. I think Mony's getting a bit better game by game. When he's fully back up to speed, I think he'll be the difference-maker that we used to know. I'll go out on a limb and say he'll end up pumping 25 this year. What's impressing me has been his passing and puck pursuit in the o-zone, creating turnovers.

 

The big difference with Monahan is his 200 foot game.  It's tough to use last year, but the year before, he was great at scoring but a real liability without the puck.  He needed a stready stream of Gaudreau elite passes to finish.  This year he is driving the play for his line.  He might not be quite ready to play with Gaudreau, but then again we don't need him to do that.

 

Ya know, what I find funny is that the Flames work for victories more this year.

Up a goal, we are playing to the end.

May give up a tying goal and work to get the extra point.

But the effort is there.

You don't see us giving up when we get down a goal.

LA and ANA could both have been losses in other years.

We get frustrated and one turns into two.

 

We play very well with the lead, and other than a few letdowns, we usually prevail.

The one area for improvement is EN situations.

We haven't been able to come back and generally get scored on. 

[travel_dude]

Some stats that show where the top line sits:

 

Darren Haynes
@DarrenWHaynes
Per 
@NatStatTrick
, six players with >300 mins at 5-on-5 have been on the ice for 5 or fewer GA — and five are #Flames:
1. Gaudreau (347:36, 2 GA)
2. Tkachuk (342:43, 2 GA)
3. Lindholm (332:27, 3 GA)
4. Backlund (302:07, 4 GA)
5. Hoglander (301:22, 5 GA) 
6. Coleman (300:21, 5 GA)
10:19 AM · Dec 4, 2021·Twitter for iPad

[flames-fan-in-jets-land]

4 hours ago, bosn111 said:

Ok we have passed the quarter mark of the season. 24 games is enough games to look at trends and consider possible future outcomes.

 

The Flames currently sit 1st in the pacific, 1st in the West though Edmonton and Minnesota have games in hand which could move them ahead.

 

They have been great on the road, less so at home but far from bad. A great first quarter has them in a good position where they are not fighting from the back of the pack. Not winning many blowouts, lots of close games so they shouldn’t be feeling high and mighty rather we have worked hard to be here and need to keep working hard to stay here.

 

 I hope both goalies can stay hot, but we all knew their stats were unsustainable long term. As long as they can both stay near the top of tender stats the Flames will have a solid season.

 

The forwards as a whole are having a good start to the season. Overcoming offseason and early season injuries has delayed performance by a few (Monahan, Pitlick, Richardson) but overall they are playing well regardless of line combinations. 
 

The defence has been very good to start. The goalies have been great and saved a bunch of mistakes by D men but in order to have so many shut outs already means the D has also supported the goalies. I would say that Kylington and Valimaki are a microcosm of the Flames over the past few seasons. While Valimaki jumped into a big league role directly, even after a serious injury, he had a lot of leash to work with and hasn’t had the expected results from the experience. Kylington was given a much tougher ride and needed to fight through challenges and disappointment before getting an opportunity and running with it. Now Kylington is playing top 4 and very well and Valimaki has been sent down to the AHL.

 

The Flames a few seasons ago when they were best in the west regular season, they faced little disappointment and few challenges. Players were in roles that seemed to be given rather than earned (except Bennett). This year Monahan was pushed down to 4th line and has worked up to 3rd. Mangiapane playing 2nd line as earned. Kylington, Hanifin and Andersson playing top 4. Lewis, Richardson, Pitlick all bottom 6 and playing roles asked of them, Coleman not left in top 6 just because. Accountability under Sutter has been very important.

 

 If I look at Individual players ratings, I would say these would be them (I am taking into account cap hit and results).

 

Great start

Mangiapane on track for 60 goals. Not likely to hit that, but a career year with 40+ is not out of the question. Currently only 2 goals away from his career high of 18 which took him 56 games.

 

Gaudreau has 27 points already with 9 goals. Likely ending with 30+ goals and might break 100 points. Beyond the offence he is also getting back defensively and I have seen him throw a couple of good body checks. He seems to be rounding out his game under Sutter and it is creating more space for him on offence.

 

Lindholm is on track to be a PPG player and 30+ goals. He has been very steady at C and is doing everything he needs to do. At under 5 mil, he is exactly what the Flames need.

 

Kylington already has a career high in goals, assists and points. Playing with Tanev has developed into a Giordano/Brodie caliber pairing. They just fit. He still makes the odd mistake, but he is greatly improved and has earned his spot.

 

Tanev for steadying the D, helping anyone he plays with. He may never be an offensive dynamo and likely will never win the Norris for that reason, but it is no wonder that Flames D has improved the past 2 years while the Canucks have faltered.

 

Markstrom is hard to argue with a 1.76 .939 start with a significant lead in shut outs. Hard to predict final stats, but if he can keep close, the Flames will be successful.

 

Vladar has been the best backup Flames have had in years. 5-0-1 to start with shut outs and 1.78 .939. Again hard to predict but if he can maintain this pace or close it will help Flames chances for sure.

 

Very good Start

 

Tkachuk has had a very good start. Hasn’t been quite the same pest of the past and his offence is not as high as Johnny, or the same goals as Mangiapane. As top salary I can’t place him at excellent. On track for 40 goals (more likely 30 something) and around 80 points he should end up close to a PPG player. For his salary he should be over that in a contract year looking for 9 mil+. If he was under 5 mil I would consider this excellent.

 

Andersson and Hanifin will sit at this spot together. They are a very good pair and are both double digit plus players. While their offence isn’t where we would hope, they are playing much better defensively and the offence should come.

 

Lewis and Richardson both fit here as they are doing exactly what is needed from 4th liners making only 800 k.

 

Good start

 

Backlund is having a good start. Steady on 2nd line considering the revolving line mates, but at over 5 mil, his offence needs to be better to be ranked higher.

 

Coleman for the same reasons as Backlund. Steadies his line mates but at his contract he needs to add more offence.

 

Lucic is on track for 20+ goals which is great for him, but for his contract we should get more. If his cap hit was in the 2.5 - 3 range I would have him in the very good start level.

 

Gudbranson is doing exactly what a bottom pair D needs to do. He is one of my good surprises as he is doing better than I expected.

 

Average start

 

Dube has been playing well but with limited offence he is not where he should be, especially when making over 2 mil.

 

Pitlick hasn’t been bad, but also not doing a lot to stand out. If he was paid like Lewis and Richardson I would call his play good, but at almost 2 mil, I can only say average.

 

Zadorov has been steady, but again 3.75 is very expensive for a bottom pair D who is not a special teams specialist.

 

Disappointing start

 

I don’t see Monahan staying at this level, and the off season surgery needs to be taken into account, but a former top line C known as a perennial 30+ goal getter to be down in the bottom 6, on track for 12 goals making over 6 mil is disappointing.

 

Valimaki was a high draft pick. Playing on the big club last year he has spent a lot of time in the press box and recently demoted. Outplayed by 2 D who seemed to be questionable signings, this is definitely a disappointment.

 

Not enough data

 

Stone getting in only 1 game, he remains the perfect 7th D. Can’t complain as he makes so little.

 

 

Thoughts?

Looch was only brought in for 2 reasons. The physical presence that was sorely needed at the time and the subtraction of Neal.  The fact that he had progressed into a leader in the locker room while still being a physical deterrent only makes anything over 15 pts for the season a bonus.  Sure it didnt look like it was going to work out at first but theres alot of other worse options for the price.

 

Great post BTW.