The Flames BEST vs THE BEST

[kehatch]

Pre-season starts Monday and I think most Flames fans are pretty confident going into the season.  We know we are playoff contenders, but are we cup contenders?  Let's look at how our top guys stack up to the best teams top guys.  

 

How did I determine the best?

 

I used Vegas odds to determine the top the top 2.  I took the cup finalists from last season. And I took the presidents trophy winner from last season.  Since Pittsburgh made two of the lists and I wanted five teams I also added our division winner.  I figured that was a fair representation of the top teams using a few different metrics.  That leaves us with Pittsburgh, Edmonton, Nashville, Washington, and Anaheim.  

 

Why look at just the top guys?

 

Stars win cups.  Depth is important as well, but history shows us that without the stars you aren't winning a cup.  

 

Top Centres

1. Pittsburgh: Crosby, Malkin
2. Edmonton: McDavid, RNH
3. Washington: Backstrom, Kuznetsov
4. Anaheim: Getzlaf, Kesler
5. Calgary: Monahan, Backlund
6. Nashville: Johansen, Bonino

 

Monahan is a great player.  But he doesn't compare to the top centres in the league.  Teams don't win a cup without a star centre. Hopefully he can develop into one of the elite two way centres (Bergeron, Toews) and/or continue to develop his offensive game.  Either that or a guy like Jankowski/Bennett develop into that player. 

 

Top Wingers

1. Anaheim: Perry, Rakell, Silfverberg, Cogliano
2. Washington: Ovechkin, Oshie, Burakovsky, Connolly
3. Calgary: Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Frolik, Versteeg
4. Edmonton: Draisait, Lucic, Maroon, Kassian
5. Pittsburgh: Kessel, Hornqvist, Guentzel, Sheary
6. Nashville: Arvidsson, Forsberg, Smith, Fiala

 

A trend with most of these teams is how quickly the depth drops off when you get out of the top 2 or 3 wingers.  Calgary has one of the better wingers on the list and our depth doesn't taper off as quickly.  That said, Gaudreau needs to rebound this season and Tkachuk needs to continue to take steps forward.  

 

Top D

1. Nashville: Josi, Subban, Ekholm, Ellis
2. Calgary: Giordano, Hamilton, Brodie, Hamonic
3. Anaheim: Lindholm, Fowler, Manson, Vatanen
4. Edmonton: Klefbom, Larsson, Russell, Sekera
5. Pittsburgh: Letang, Schultz, Dumoulin, Maata
6. Washington: Calrson, Niskanen, Orlov, Orpik

 

The Flames should shine on D this season.  Assuming Brodie and Hamonic can return to form and the D stays healthy.  

 

Goaltending

1. Pittsburgh: Murray, Niemi
2. Washington: Holtby, Grubauer
3. Edmonton: Talbot, Brossoit
4. Anaheim: Gibson, Miller
5. Nashville: Rinne, Saros
6. Calgary: Smith, Lack

 

This is a chronically weak link for the Flames.  Even if Smith plays well Calgary is likely going to stay on the bottom of the list.  The best case scenario for the Flames is Lack pulls a Dubnyk or one of the kids surprise.  

 

Summary

 

1. Pittsburgh
2. Anaheim
3. Edmonton
4. Washington
5. Calgary
6. Nashville

 

The good news is I like us better then Nashville in this department and they made the cup finals a year ago.  The other good news is that I think we match up well against most of the teams not on the list.  I think we are legitimately a top 10 NHL team.  We are also in good shape when looking at our age, cap, and depth.  Plus our system is pretty strong and we have strong coaching and management. There is plenty to be positive about.

 

The bad news is I think we lack the star centre and top goalie to be legitimate contenders this season.  Anything can happen.  We may get it done with this team, or we may see internal development and find those top players.  The Flames were a disallowed goal away from winning the cup with a team not as strong as this one.

[conundrumed]

I like your post kehatch, but it's kinda based on last year so any real strides that might be made are kinda treated as negligible.

If I look at progress, I'd start with Jankowski. If we end up with both Backlund and him centering, I'm guessing we'll be doubling up on 200' possession centers.

For me, that really changes our dynamic.

Then I move on to Foo. He might be 1st line in Stockton, but he may also be a good fit with Versteeg and Bennett.

Of all of the teams you're listing, maybe I'm too homer, but I think we have the best chance at improving the dynamic of our team.

If Foo doesn't win that spot, I think, imho, BT will pursue Jagr harder.

 

[MAC331]

3 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

I like your post kehatch, but it's kinda based on last year so any real strides that might be made are kinda treated as negligible.

If I look at progress, I'd start with Jankowski. If we end up with both Backlund and him centering, I'm guessing we'll be doubling up on 200' possession centers.

For me, that really changes our dynamic.

Then I move on to Foo. He might be 1st line in Stockton, but he may also be a good fit with Versteeg and Bennett.

Of all of the teams you're listing, maybe I'm too homer, but I think we have the best chance at improving the dynamic of our team.

If Foo doesn't win that spot, I think, imho, BT will pursue Jagr harder.

 

Really ? I think the only way we get better is if Tkachuk and Bennett get better and hopefully together. I also don't agree with kehatch that its the stars that win you Cups it is the stars that get you there. IMO

The bonus bumper I agree will be how all of Lazar (have to mention him), Jankowski and Foo get in and make an impact to the forward group. Defensively right to the Goal I think we will be solid. I like our chances this season.

[conundrumed]

1 minute ago, MAC331 said:

Really ? I think the only way we get better is if Tkachuk and Bennett get better and hopefully together. I also don't agree with kehatch that its the stars that win you Cups it is the stars that get you there. IMO

The bonus bumper I agree will be how all of Lazar (have to mention him), Jankowski and Foo get in and make an impact to the forward group. Defensively right to the Goal I think we will be solid. I like our chances this season.

I honestly think if we can add a forward or 2 coming up would really push the rankings up. We need to see improvements in the forward ranks, in player, not just another year of the same same.

[MAC331]

3 minutes ago, conundrumed said:

I honestly think if we can add a forward or 2 coming up would really push the rankings up. We need to see improvements in the forward ranks, in player, not just another year of the same same.

I agree that some of both will be required this season. I will stick to my thoughts that we will not see Jankowski or Foo until later into the season.

[travel_dude]

I get some of the rankings, but seeing EDM listed anywhere in the top 10 on D is just silly.  As well, listing EDM goaltending in the top 5 is just wrong.  They have a top 5 goalie, but after that a rookie that started 5 games.  Against bottom dwellers.  It's possible that he is a NHL goalie, but you can't rank them that high on a low sample.

 

With Ellis out and Kesler done for quite awhile, I wonder how that impacts the lists.  

[cccsberg]

2 hours ago, conundrumed said:

I like your post kehatch, but it's kinda based on last year so any real strides that might be made are kinda treated as negligible.

If I look at progress, I'd start with Jankowski. If we end up with both Backlund and him centering, I'm guessing we'll be doubling up on 200' possession centers.

For me, that really changes our dynamic.

Then I move on to Foo. He might be 1st line in Stockton, but he may also be a good fit with Versteeg and Bennett.

Of all of the teams you're listing, maybe I'm too homer, but I think we have the best chance at improving the dynamic of our team.

If Foo doesn't win that spot, I think, imho, BT will pursue Jagr harder.

 

Add to that the Bennett break-out which we are all hoping will materialize.

[cccsberg]

2 hours ago, MAC331 said:

Really ? I think the only way we get better is if Tkachuk and Bennett get better and hopefully together. I also don't agree with kehatch that its the stars that win you Cups it is the stars that get you there. IMO

The bonus bumper I agree will be how all of Lazar (have to mention him), Jankowski and Foo get in and make an impact to the forward group. Defensively right to the Goal I think we will be solid. I like our chances this season.

There are multiple ways to win a Cup.  Flames do not have the top stars to do it that way but there are other paths.  We have a strong D and pretty strong team overall.  If the goalies can play consistent and better than average I'd say we have a good shot.

[cccsberg]

1 hour ago, travel_dude said:

I get some of the rankings, but seeing EDM listed anywhere in the top 10 on D is just silly.  As well, listing EDM goaltending in the top 5 is just wrong.  They have a top 5 goalie, but after that a rookie that started 5 games.  Against bottom dwellers.  It's possible that he is a NHL goalie, but you can't rank them that high on a low sample.

 

With Ellis out and Kesler done for quite awhile, I wonder how that impacts the lists.  

Agree on both counts.  Someone's drinking too much of that Oiler kook-aid.

[travel_dude]

2 hours ago, cccsberg said:

Agree on both counts.  Someone's drinking too much of that Oiler kook-aid.

 

I blame more on the Vegas people.  They drank too much of the Kool-ade during the playoffs.  Wonderful season for the Oils.  Let's not get hung up on McDavid's ability to score 120 points this season.  If he does, the rest of the team will get less than 100.

[kehatch]

Edmonton was 7 in points, breaking 100 points. They were 8 overall in both goals for and goals against. They have an elite goaltender, strong centre depth, and the best player in the NHL. They also have decent depth at most positions. They also have great coaching. 

 

I applaud some of you with your irrational and biased take in them. I hate them to. But they are one of the best teams in the NHL on paper and they showed it on the ice last season. 

[kehatch]

2 hours ago, travel_dude said:

 

I blame more on the Vegas people.  They drank too much of the Kool-ade during the playoffs.  Wonderful season for the Oils.  Let's not get hung up on McDavid's ability to score 120 points this season.  If he does, the rest of the team will get less than 100.

 

Who is more reliable? Vegas odds makers or fans from a rival message board. You are way off on your take of the Oilers. Good on you to feed the hate. But your off.

[travel_dude]

1 hour ago, kehatch said:

Edmonton was 7 in points, breaking 100 points. They were 8 overall in both goals for and goals against. They have an elite goaltender, strong centre depth, and the best player in the NHL. They also have decent depth at most positions. They also have great coaching. 

 

I applaud some of you with your irrational and biased take in them. I hate them to. But they are one of the best teams in the NHL on paper and they showed it on the ice last season. 

 

Sure, if they want to play Talbot 76 games this season, they can possibly duplicate that record.  But you are reaching if you think he put up elite numbers.  Above league average for SA%.  I actually said he was top 5, which may even be a stretch.  He was top 5 in wins.  Also played among the most.

 

They have depth as most positions.  All except goaltending and defense.  And most Oiler analysts consider RW to be shallow.  I don't think it's biased to point that out.  They have perhaps the best player in the NHL and one of the best RW who may play C.  After that, an average team.  Some guys that stood out and could repeat or regress.  A defense that can score an average amount and keep pucks out, but missing a key guy.

 

The point is that they were tops in a few categories, middle in others.  Last season.  If you want to depend on odds makers, then be sure to react when they change them.

I'm not Oiler bashing here.  Just pointing out some flaws.  I can make similar ones about the Flames and the Pens, but I mostly agree with the placement with those in mind.

 

[kehatch]

The Oilers can always find a backup if Brossoit doesn't work. They are a good team. So are the Flames. 

[conundrumed]

37 minutes ago, kehatch said:

The Oilers can always find a backup if Brossoit doesn't work. They are a good team. So are the Flames. 

Talbot had quite the workload last year. Maybe he's a Kiprusoff, but it's risking it all that he is, imho.

[MAC331]

9 hours ago, conundrumed said:

Talbot had quite the workload last year. Maybe he's a Kiprusoff, but it's risking it all that he is, imho.

One thing Talbot has done is prove he can handle such a load and the team has faith in him. They can cut him back depending on how their season goes but they also know they can ride him if need be.