Can we make the Playoffs this year?

[420since1974]

Defensive depth of the type mentioned by FF would go a long way in making me a true believer in the Flames chances for the play-offs.

 

It is definitely the skimpiest part of the cupboard in this organization, especially on the right side.

[Khrox]

I don't see the Flames falling off, at least not dramatically. A 0.550 to make the playoffs at this rate? Unless Gio/Brodie go down I don't think we will dip below that. On the other hand, if by trade deadline we are still contending I can see us making a play for another D or RW for a run (one signed for another 2-3 years).

[Cubicon]

Yes.  The Flames will be in the playoffs.  Of that I have no doubt right now.

 

Whether they'll make it past the first round is a total enigma.  The Flames have been playing in top gear so far this season and have given every indication that they won't slow down, but other teams will ramp up to that gear come the playoffs, so it's hard to tell what chance they have to continue.

 

That being said... I'd hate to be the team that draws the Flames in the first round (at the moment seems to be Vancouver or Anaheim).

[jjgallow]

Some really good points made. 

 

I'm still a non-believer (this season) in making the playoffs but without any doubt we have more here than we thought.

[Kulstad]

Randy Sportak just did a piece for the Calgary Sun today, too:

 

Randy Sportak asks NHL scouts if the Calgary Flames are worthy of the postseason

http://www.calgarysun.com/2014/12/05/randy-sportak-asks-nhl-scouts-if-the-calgary-flames-are-worthy-of-the-postseason

[CastleMania]

I know in the past Pyro has done a playoff projection chart, and I guarantee he has one running right now. Pyro, could you start posting it with weekly updates?

[robrob1974]

Yes.  The Flames will be in the playoffs.  Of that I have no doubt right now.

 

Whether they'll make it past the first round is a total enigma.  The Flames have been playing in top gear so far this season and have given every indication that they won't slow down, but other teams will ramp up to that gear come the playoffs, so it's hard to tell what chance they have to continue.

 

That being said... I'd hate to be the team that draws the Flames in the first round (at the moment seems to be Vancouver or Anaheim).

 

Even if they don't make it past the first round, it's a good learning experience to see what playoff hockey is like.

[jjgallow]

I was 1 of the few that had little faith in Gaudreau. He might still find it hard with the longer season but that can be compensated for with shorter shifts/less ice time using him strategically. His production might go down but probably not signicantly. The kid is making a believer out of this doubter.

 

Well one thing we can officially all agree on now then, is that Gaudreau is for real.

 

That doesn't mean he's going to continue to put strings of multi-point games together, though.

 

Or, that he has what it takes to carry us into the playoffs.

 

In the second half of the season, not only will we faced prepared teams all with their starting goaltenders, but the physical component begins to dominate.

 

I'm thrilled with how they've played the last two months.

 

But at this stage, I still think we should be happy with that alone and appreciate it for what it is.   We are doing extremely well right now and that's great.   We have a lot to be thankful for as fans, but we shouldn't be surprised if patience is needed for yet one more year.   Hockey goes in ups and downs.  This is our first up in several years.  But it's unlikely to be a linear path to success.

[Ameter]

What I like best about this team is that there's no one carrying us - everyone is pulling their weight. It also makes it really hard to defend against us, since you can't simply shut down our top line and go.

[travel_dude]

Well one thing we can officially all agree on now then, is that Gaudreau is for real.

 

That doesn't mean he's going to continue to put strings of multi-point games together, though.

 

Or, that he has what it takes to carry us into the playoffs.

 

In the second half of the season, not only will we faced prepared teams all with their starting goaltenders, but the physical component begins to dominate.

 

I'm thrilled with how they've played the last two months.

 

But at this stage, I still think we should be happy with that alone and appreciate it for what it is.   We are doing extremely well right now and that's great.   We have a lot to be thankful for as fans, but we shouldn't be surprised if patience is needed for yet one more year.   Hockey goes in ups and downs.  This is our first up in several years.  But it's unlikely to be a linear path to success.

You know how much I have been spouting off about Johnny's over-the-top skill and vision. Well, I truly think we have only seen the tip of the iceberg. So far we have seen Johnny make impossible passes, gain the zone at will, and turn defenseman inside out. But we have only seen small samples of his scoring on the rush, breakaway speed, and deadly shot. He is still just gaining confidence in himself. He knows he has the abilities, but will defer to Hudler or Jooris to finish. He QB's the powerplay more then gets into scoring positions. So, I don't see his game regressing anytime soon. Whether he goes on a scoring tear or gets held off the score sheet for extended periods of time, his presence allows other player around him to score. Even in the first 6 games, he was creating opportunities for others.

Monahan is another player that is just coming into his own as a complete player. He has been a steadying influence on the ice. His extra weight put on, and his extra muscle gained is giving him the ability to score in tight, where maybe last year was getting knocked on his butt. He is making a case for being #1C for the rest of the year.

Hartley describes the team as a close knit family. They play for each other and share in the success. The need to have a Gratts is less, since every player will step up.

I do not expect the 2nd half of the season to be much different in that we will face the goalies that a team thinks will win. We faced Dubie because the starter was having a rough season. We faced every starting goalie except Luongo, unlike some teams who got the backup. We Played against Price, Niemi, Crawford, Bob, Varly, Andersen, Rinne, Elliott, etc. Sure the games in the early season lack some intensity, but are missing some vets that should be available in the 2nd half.

[CheersMan]

JJ, you’re a pessimist.  However, watching these Flames play could be good therapy for you.  You are watching the games now aren't you?

 

I'm still a non-believer (this season) in making the playoffs but without any doubt we have more here than we thought.

But at this stage, I still think we should be happy with that alone and appreciate it for what it is.   We are doing extremely well right now and that's great.   We have a lot to be thankful for as fans, but we shouldn't be surprised if patience is needed for yet one more year.   Hockey goes in ups and downs.  This is our first up in several years.  But it's unlikely to be a linear path to success.

[Khrox]

Something I've noticed a lot of from Gaudreau is the fact that he makes a lot of stop and spin plays to shake off a lot of people right near the corners. Something I haven't seen a lot of out of Flames players the past year. It is working so well for him that I've seen Brodie, Byron and a few others try it, all pretty successfully. Hopefully other people don't catch on that it is a common play and adjust for it now.

[CheersMan]

Thanks for the chart, Cheersman. Might I suggest that in future versions you use bars to capture the actual points in a segment and use the blue line to capture the cumulative +/- to the target. So the blue line would be at 10 still for segment 3 but the bar would only go to 8. That way we see the buffer or deficit we have over time while still seeing the total for any given 7 game stretch. If not, that's cool too...

Thanks again!

 

[Khrox]

Thanks Cheersman. So far we haven't lost a segment yet, but with how the competetive the west is I would rather not risk just staying status quo. Shame we couldn't make this a 6-1 segment but we did really well last night and I can't be too upset because the Flames are playing some of the best hockey we have seen in years.

[kehatch]

Next segment isn't too bad. TOR, BUF, NYR, DAL all winnable games. CHI, VAN, PIT are tougher but the Flames have shown they can compete with those teams.

[Pyromancer]

I know in the past Pyro has done a playoff projection chart, and I guarantee he has one running right now. Pyro, could you start posting it with weekly updates?

Is that a money-back guarantee? Oh well; am I that predictable? Here it is.

 

 

Western Conference (97 pts):

Although early, I think the potential playoff field is already narrowed down to 10 teams.

The probability of the following 4 teams advancing to the postseason is a longshot at best with a 97 pt. target.

DAL (36-19-0), COL (36-18-1), and ARI (37-17-0) would need exceptional finishes.

As for EDM (40-16-0), I think they have a proverbial snowball's chance.

 

Eastern Conference (95 pts):

The East also appears to have 10 teams possible with 6 teams as longshots to make the post-season.

I would consider BUF (37-17-1), CLB (37-18-1), and CAR (38-19-0) very unlikely.

Teams still within reach of the playoff bubble with strong play are OTT (35-21-0), NJD (35-19-1) and PHI (36-19-1).

[Flyerfan52]

Is that a money-back guarantee? Oh well; am I that predictable? Here it is.

 

 

Western Conference (97 pts):

Although early, I think the potential playoff field is already narrowed down to 10 teams.

The probability of the following 4 teams advancing to the postseason is a longshot at best with a 97 pt. target.

DAL (36-19-0), COL (36-18-1), and ARI (37-17-0) would need exceptional finishes.

As for EDM (40-16-0), I think they have a proverbial snowball's chance.

 

Eastern Conference (95 pts):

The East also appears to have 10 teams possible with 6 teams as longshots to make the post-season.

I would consider BUF (37-17-1), CLB (37-18-1), and CAR (38-19-0) very unlikely.

Teams still within reach of the playoff bubble with strong play are OTT (35-21-0), NJD (35-19-1) and PHI (36-19-1).

According to this my guesses for western playoff teams look good.

********************************************

I hope the Flyers get @ least a wild card spot. Otherwise I have ne eastern team to care about.

If needed I can root for the long suffering Isles (& I was likely the 1 person that saw them as a playoff bound team before the season started.

[DirtyDeeds]

 

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

 

Apparently we have an 88% chance to make the playoffs. Note this is a weighted random number generated chart.

[jjgallow]

JJ, you’re a pessimist.  However, watching these Flames play could be good therapy for you.  You are watching the games now aren't you?

 

Maybe I am a pessimist lol, I prefer the term realist.

 

They are good therapy.  They play a great game and they're fun to watch.

 

I'm very happy with how they've done, regardless of if they make the playoffs or not.   

 

I won't place playoff expectations on them yet.  Not for another year. 

 

They have a lot of great pieces but their success imho is still too fragile to last a full season.

 

I expect everything to be tempered in the last half.  Less exceptional goaltending.  Less room for the offense.   And any injury to their defense core will expose huge, gaping holes.

 

If even one of those things happen, I would expect it to knock them out of the playoffs.  Odds are, all of them will happen to varying degrees.

 

And that's okay.   I think we still have a lot to be thankful for either way at this very early stage in their rebuild.

[DJ_dizzle_D]

reality may be starting to set in here... first back to back loss of the season, and I expect to lose 2 out of our next three games to Buffalso Pittsburgh and Chicago. 

 

Praying for the Flames but I have a bad feeling about the rest of the season

[CheersMan]

reality may be starting to set in here... first back to back loss of the season, and I expect to lose 2 out of our next three games to Buffalso Pittsburgh and Chicago. 

 

Praying for the Flames but I have a bad feeling about the rest of the season

 

Wow, some fickle fans are already jumping off the bandwagon after the first time this season we have had back to back losses.  We never lost 10-1 last night, it was a 2-1 game.  Chin up DJ, and get back on the bandwagon.

[DJ_dizzle_D]

Wow, some fickle fans are already jumping off the bandwagon after the first time this season we have had back to back losses.  We never lost 10-1 last night, it was a 2-1 game.  Chin up DJ, and get back on the bandwagon.

 

Trust me I'm not a band wagon fan I've been watching the flames for awhile, through the bad times and...well yeah. Every season I always have very high hopes for the boys, and love going to games even when we stink. I just hate when the Flames give the fans hope like they've done so many times only to start elbowingting the bed.

 

I'm hoping this isn't the case this year. But trust me I'm on the Flames wagon, we could be the worst team in the league and I'll still be at the dome being the loudest one there.

[CastleMania]

Lol, they outplayed the Leafs last night, save maybe the second period, and now we're worried about a huge regression? Let's wait and see shall we?

[travel_dude]

Lol, they outplayed the Leafs last night, save maybe the second period, and now we're worried about a huge regression? Let's wait and see shall we?

 

Yes, they played a game where their "fancy stats" looked good and we lost.  Oh dear, oh me, oh my.

[checkerman]

Whether we make the playoffs or not, I still love the way the Flames are playing now verses the way they played the last few years.  Last nites game against the Leafs was exciting to watch win or lose.  I am enjoying watching the Flames play again.