Kulstad Posted August 20, 2014 Report Share Posted August 20, 2014 We asked for it, we got it, but man does the timing suck! http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/new-lottery-rules-come-at-worst-time-for-flames/ New lottery rules come at worst time for Flames Mark SpectorAugust 20, 2014, 5:37 PM There is, in these eyes, no such thing as a National Hockey League team that plans a rebuild. The irony is, any team that finds itself in a rebuild is there only because every plan it made over the last few years backfired. So giving a last-place club credit for “tanking” is to let the front office off the hook for years of bad trades, poor drafts and substandard development that put them in last place. A prime example: The Edmonton Oilers, which got three consecutive No. 1 picks from 2010-12, finishing 30th, 30th and 29th. Edmonton didn’t plan for those picks. The Oilers were mismanaged, got a lot things wrong and could not ice a team that was any better than the worst team in the league. So as the NHL changes its lottery process to spread the opportunity more evenly across the 14 non-playoff teams, the league hopes “to more appropriately reflect the current state of competitive balance in the league.” What the NHL didn’t say was that it was tired of rewarding incompetence. So if your team is starting a rebuild right about now ― like, say, the Calgary Flames ― your timing couldn’t be worse. In the Connor McDavid draft of 2015, the odds of the 30th-place team landing McDavid have diminished from 25 percent to 20 percent. In all, the odds for the teams that finish 27th through 30th teams will diminish, while the chances of getting the first overall selection for teams that finish between 17th and 26th each improve. And in 2016 there will be three lottery picks to determine the top three choices. That means an entirely unlucky 30th-place team could end up with the No. 4 choice in the draft, where up to now it could fall no further than to No. 2. For most of the Canadian teams this is good news. In our books, Ottawa, Toronto, Winnipeg, Edmonton and Vancouver each have very realistic chances of finishing in that 17th through 26th grid. At least, that prediction seems far more likely than finishing in the bottom four for those clubs ― yes, even for Edmonton. It won’t matter for Montreal, which should be a playoff team in the East. Calgary, however, is embarking on a major rebuild, and we predict sub-25 finishes for the next two years. Thus the new general manager in Brad Treliving, whose strengths are found in drafting and developing. And thus the talk of McDavid in Southern Alberta, the clear franchise player and certain first-overall draftee next June. The Flames overachieved last season as a plucky, dogged team that was tough to finish off. But they lost their top goal scorer to free agency when Mike Cammalleri went to New Jersey, and his 26 goals were more than 12 percent of all Flames production last season. Will Jonas Hiller in goal and winger Mason Raymond make up for the Cammalleri loss? Perhaps, but when you’re a Western Canadian market without playoff hopes, any rebuild hinges on the draft ― and waiting drafted players is a slow process. Even slower now, with a new format in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted August 21, 2014 Report Share Posted August 21, 2014 Well... the draft lottery is really gonna be exciting to watch in 2016. That is a pretty significant redistribution! The bottom 4 teams in league will see their chances of landing the top pick decrease by: 14.2% A combined 54.5% chance of landing #1 going forward compared to 68.7% previously. I mean the #1 pick will still mostly go to one of the bottom 4 teams... but that's a nice chop off the odds. Top 3 picks of the draft 2007-2010: Kane, JVR, Turris, Stamkos, Doughty, Bogo, Tavares, Duchene, Hedman, Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson vs the next 3 picks: Hickey, Alzner, Gagner, Pietrangelo, L.Schenn, Filatov, OEL, B.Schenn, E. Kane, Johansen, Niederreiter, Connelly Major difference in the tier of players some bottom 3 teams will be bumped out of adding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flyerfan52 Posted August 21, 2014 Report Share Posted August 21, 2014 So less chance of a Mario/Sid type total tank job but the 20% still favors the ditching team. The part that makes it less likely is the slim chance that after trying so hard to be the worst a team could end up picking 4th if the hockey gods really have it in for them (like the 2007 Flyers losing the lottery after having the worst year of their existance.) If Mark Spector really believes the Oilers didn't plan for those high picks he should review KLowe's stated plan to build via the draft when no amount of begging could persuade UFAs (or Heatley) to sign on in Edmonton. They just picked the wrong years as earlier they would have Stamkos & Tavares while later it would be MacKinnon & Ekblad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Invin Posted August 21, 2014 Report Share Posted August 21, 2014 I don't mind this one bit. I didn't have my sights set on finishing in the basement this year anyway, and I don't think management does either. I think this is a much better spread percentage wise and it'll be a lot more interesting to watch the lottery now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfire11 Posted August 21, 2014 Report Share Posted August 21, 2014 I think these odds percentage changes creates a higher degree of optimism throughout the cusp teams at the lottery. I also like the changes for the first 3 picks in 2016. One of the things I still find disturbing is the lack of transparency the league displays in handling the lottery. Why behind locked doors and not out in the open; broadcasted for all to see. I know it is computerized but heck make it entertaining and visual. It is like the NHL is telling the teams "We don't trust you so we are implementing lottery changes" but we are going to select the lottery behind closed doors because " We are the NHL you can trust us". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted August 21, 2014 Report Share Posted August 21, 2014 I think these odds percentage changes creates a higher degree of optimism throughout the cusp teams at the lottery. I also like the changes for the first 3 picks in 2016. One of the things I still find disturbing is the lack of transparency the league displays in handling the lottery. Why behind locked doors and not out in the open; broadcasted for all to see. I know it is computerized but heck make it entertaining and visual. It is like the NHL is telling the teams "We don't trust you so we are implementing lottery changes" but we are going to select the lottery behind closed doors because " We are the NHL you can trust us".I love a good conspiracy theory and all... But you know the non televised actual draw is witnessed videotaped and authenticated by NHL reps and independent law offices right...It's as transparent as it gets without it being live. Makes for a better production for TV... http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=243891 One of those cases where it's ok to trust them.. But some never will... You know.. Those that don't believe in the moon landing or that do believe in a 2nd shooter....no helping them folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_People1 Posted August 21, 2014 Report Share Posted August 21, 2014 Decreased odds for moving up in the draft lottery in 2015 make it difficult for the Flames to draft first overall but the worse they can do is drop 1 spot. I'm still in the tank crowd for 2015. It's 2016 that's going to be the game changer. I love a good conspiracy theory and all... But you know the non televised actual draw is witnessed videotaped and authenticated by NHL reps and independent law offices right...It's as transparent as it gets without it being live. Makes for a better production for TV...http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=243891One of those cases where it's ok to trust them..But some never will...You know.. Those that don't believe in the moon landing or that do believe in a 2nd shooter....no helping them folks... You trust lawyers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDeeds Posted August 22, 2014 Report Share Posted August 22, 2014 Decreased odds for moving up in the draft lottery in 2015 make it difficult for the Flames to draft first overall but the worse they can do is drop 1 spot. I'm still in the tank crowd for 2015. It's 2016 that's going to be the game changer. You trust lawyers? well if they end up in last spot they could drop to 4th overall pick.. All the top 3 are lotto draws now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cross16 Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 People are making too big a deal of the 2015 changes. Wow a whole 5%chance less at potentially getting the first overall pick and you still can only fall down one spot anyway. For 2015 it doesn't eve matter because if you out miss Mcdavid you get Eichel and that's almost just as good IMO, and potentially could be better so not a huge deterrent..... 2016 are the real changes and that will be much more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
conundrumed Posted September 1, 2014 Report Share Posted September 1, 2014 Can always count on you for perspective cross. Drafting is oversold imho. High pix alone don't get you to where you need to go. Crosby/Malkin or Toews/Kane don't make you elite, you can draft the best players in the draft at any round even. We can argue it gives you a better chance with better players, but that is far and away not a given. If your roster lacks 16 solid NHLers, hence the reason you're at/near bottom, high picks aren't saving you, I don't care who you are. Source: Edmonton Oilers Coming Soon: Buffalo, Florida. The conundrum in all of this is the NHL is changing the odds to prevent "tanking". In reality, imho, they are actually relieving teams of the really bad notion that you can build a team based on draft position in this day and age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfire11 Posted March 22, 2015 Report Share Posted March 22, 2015 I think that Extra percentages should be given to Non Playoff teams that spend to the cap. So the team with the highest payroll gets an extra 5% added to what ever % they are at for the draft lottery. Next 4% etc. down to 1%. There are team that are actually spending the money to be better but through bad luck, injury or just bad management they are in the lottery. Not many Cap strapped teams intentionally tanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDeeds Posted April 12, 2015 Report Share Posted April 12, 2015 Saturday, April 18 at 6 p.m.MT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTech780 Posted April 12, 2015 Report Share Posted April 12, 2015 I really hope Florida or Columbus win the lottery, they deserve it. Both teams played their hearts out and didn't tank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khrox Posted April 13, 2015 Report Share Posted April 13, 2015 I really hope Florida or Columbus win the lottery, they deserve it. Both teams played their hearts out and didn't tank. I totally agree, Florida was in solid contention until the last couple weeks, which says something about what they are trying to do. Columbus is my favourite team as a whole in the East (They remind me a lot of Calgary, a solid hard-working score by committee team who leaves it all on the ice) and they never really gave up, but they got so heavily derailed by injuries that I'm surprised they aren't farther down in the standings. And credit to them, they never gave up, they kept playing to win and set a franchise record for a win streak. If one of these two win the lottery, I will be more than pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kulstad Posted April 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 13, 2015 Draft lottery will be held Saturday before the Rangers/Pittsburgh game http://www.tsn.ca/mcdavid-sweepstakes-goes-saturday-1.254925 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfreining Posted April 13, 2015 Report Share Posted April 13, 2015 I would be laughing, if Boston or Columbus would win the lottery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flyerfan52 Posted April 13, 2015 Report Share Posted April 13, 2015 I have to root for the Flyers to win the dang lottery of course. Whether karma or the hockey gods it would balance 2007 when they were worst in the league. So bad they even lost the lottery to the 5th place team (lowest with a chance to draft 1st) & ended up with a choice of JVR or Turris rather than landing Patrick Kane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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