Handling The Tough Competition

[IpsoFacto]

I don't know how familiar everyone is with some of the advanced metrics, but Corsi is a simple plus/minus-style rating of the total number of shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots directed at the opposing net while a player is on the ice at even strength. The theory goes that good players control the puck more when they're on the ice, leading to more shots for their team and fewer for the opponent. The theory seems sound in that typically league leaders in Corsi are guys like Lidstrom, Weber, etc

Where it gets interesting is looking at Corsi Rel QoC. Basically this stat measures the Corsi of the opposing players that are on the ice at the same time as the player in question. Essentially, the higher the Corsi Rel Qoc, the tougher the competition that player is facing when they're on the ice. Not surprisingly, the league leaders in this category tend to be players like Lidstrom who are always on the ice against the other team's top players.

This year, the league wide leader in Corsi Rel Qoc (if you exclude players who have not played more than 5 games) is none other than our own Oli Jokinen. This means that he has played directly against tougher competition than any other player (according to the Corsi metric). Who is in second you ask? Why that would be our own Curtis Glencross. Third? Our own Chris Butler. The fourth highest Corsi Rel Qoc is where the first non-flame comes in with Pavelski from SJ. Calgary then takes 5th (JBo) and 6th (Iginla).

What does this mean exactly? Well, first off it means that those guys are almost always on the ice against the other teams top players. But it also means that we've had a tough schedule to date where we're playing teams with players that absolutely control the flow of the game night in and night out. 5 of the top 6 toughest player matchups on the season is unreal...this is a category normally filled with a whose who of Norris candidates and super studs two-way forwards.

My hat off to the 5 Flames warriors that are having great seasons while playing against the toughest competition in the league...Good Job!

[CastleMania]

JOkinen should get a selke nomination this year IMO.

[C_worthy]

excellent post, ipso

[CastleMania]

excellent post, ipso

I agree. Thumbs up.

[The_People1]

Objectively Speaking: From an asset management point of view, this is the best time to move Jokinen for someone's 1st round pick and/or even more. We can turn around and re-sign Jokinen in the off-season plus gain the picks we traded for him. Next season will be the year the Flames secure a playoff spot from opening day. We will move ahead into the future with extra prospects.

Subjectively Speaking: Yea way to go Olli!! Keep it up and hopefully we can pull off a winning streak and get into the playoffs!

[C_worthy]

Objectively Speaking: From an asset management point of view, this is the best time to move Jokinen for someone's 1st round pick and/or even more. We can turn around and re-sign Jokinen in the off-season plus gain the picks we traded for him. Next season will be the year the Flames secure a playoff spot from opening day. We will move ahead into the future with extra prospects.

Subjectively Speaking: Yea way to go Olli!! Keep it up and hopefully we can pull off a winning streak and get into the playoffs!

Yes, except for the fact that he is a human being and has been put through that once already (sort of).

If the Flames were out of the playoff picture on Feb 27th, AND IF (big if, this one) Jokinen agreed to the idea, then I agree that this would be an awesome plan.

[Ring-a-ding-dong-dandy]

but but but..... butler was -7 in 1 game he has to suck

[geos]

If we're going to look at that stat (and I think it's valuable), you should also look at Joker's Corsi number. It is one thing to look at his quality of competition, which we know is high. It's another to look at his results with it.

Our top Corsi players are in fact (ignoring guys with <20 games):

Matt Stajan

TJ Brodie

Lee Stempniak

Mikael Backlund

Tim Jackman

Corey Sarich

Why did I include 6? These are the only players on the team that direct more shots at the opposition net then have shots directed at Kipper while they are on the ice.

The stat you show indicates that yes, Joker faces tough guys, but he doesn't actually perform that great with it (Corsi -11.9/ Corsi Rel QoC 2.29 ). Compare him to other shut down centres like Datsyuk (Corsi 18.68 /Corsi Rel QoC 1.137) or Kesler (Corsi 16.05/Coris Rel QoC 0.513) or Backes (Corsi 13.8 / Corsi Rel QoC 1.367) and you'll quickly see why he's not a Selke candidate. He faces tough competition, but he actually performs quite poorly in the face of it (or so says the Corsi numbers).

So all your stat shows is that Joker plays against tough opponents, not that he actually suceeds in doing so (and if you use advanced stats there, you should also be willing to accept his Corsi is actually very poor).

Sorry to rain on the parade, but if you use such stats, you need to use them completely (just as the fact that Mikael Backlund is one of the best Corsi player on the team doesn't make him a superstar... he's also the best relative Corsi player, meaning when he is on the ice, the team performs better than any other player in terms of shots on versus shots against, does that make him our #1 player? No.).

I know I'll get a ton of thumbs down for this, but we should at least be honest. Everyone knows Joker plays against top lines (which is shown by his high Corsi QoC). But his performance isn't indicated in that stat. It is indicated in his on-ice Corsi number which is extremely poor relative to his peers. That's where your analysis and the Selke parade falls short.

[DirtyDeeds]

During the Leaf game I could have sworn Nick Kypreos said that Joker has scored most of his points in the third period.

I found this comment particularly interesting as that would necessitate adding another title to Joker when discussing his performance. That word would be "Clutch".

[kutarna]

I know I'll get a ton of thumbs down for this, but we should at least be honest. Everyone knows Joker plays against top lines (which is shown by his high Corsi QoC). But his performance isn't indicated in that stat. It is indicated in his on-ice Corsi number which is extremely poor relative to his peers. That's where your analysis and the Selke parade falls short.

No, I almost completely agree. Sutter has matched the top line against difficult lines and thus far they've had bounces go their way, leading to the current hot streak. From pure counting numbers, the top line is producing at a slightly higher rate than their opponents, but are being out-chanced constantly (as the pure On-Ice Corsi numbers show).

There's no doubt the line is playing well, but its a FAR way from a Selke nomination. Additional reasons he isn't in the race: low FO%, pure +/- and team standings.

Jokinen won't receive (and doesn't deserve) Selke votes without these going his way. Strong two-way forwards are expected to wins face-offs, show two-way play in terms of pure ES scoring difference as well as possession numbers (Corsi) and barring against some horrific teammates, allow a team to rise in the standings. 18th in the league does not count.

I love Jokinen's current performance and I hope he keeps it up (+ Iginla/Tanguay), but my point here is he is not in the Selke-nomination class.

[Aside: Some of this top line "luck" (as some might call it) or "good bounces" can be attributed to the players themselves. Tanguay is among the top in NHL history for career shooting percentage: i.e. he takes fewer shots, but his shots are generally much more effective than the average forwards' shots.]

[C_worthy]

no reason why you should get any thumbs down, geos, that was a good post - and your point is valid.

What I would add to it though, is that Corsi just measures shots, which I am not a huge fan of. Or at least, it only paints part of the picture.

Sure, Joker and the rest are being outshot, but the +- says that they are not being outscored.

The Flames don't take a lot of shots (or at least they don't get a lot of shots ON NET).

And the fact that those 5 guys are all in the top 6 in the league for relative comp shows that they are really taking the brunt of the competition head on, all the time.

To me, if they are doing that, and the +- is holding up, then they are in fact doing a good job.

Because the last time I checked, you get get any points in the standings for shots on goal.

Also, unless they are given the opportunity to play more against weaker competition, it is difficult to compare their stats. Switch Backlund and Joker's roles for a while and then compare their stats - then you would have useful data.

[cross16]

I agree, great post.

What I take away from this is actually more towards the coach. Sutter has almost exclusivly paired his top line with the other top line and gone power and power for much of this season so he is asking Joker/Iggy to play both sides essentially. I find you would see more shots and more zone time from Joker is he wasn't always lined up against the opposition's top line. I recalled seeing that Joker/Iggy are very low in terms of offensive zone starts and to me that's wrong.

I also think you'd see more consistant offensive out of that group is once and a while Sutter would line match and get them better matchups.

[geos]

To me, if they are doing that, and the +- is holding up, then they are in fact doing a good job.

Because the last time I checked, you get get any points in the standings for shots on goal.

Or geting alot of bounces... Tangs abnormal shooting percentage however explains some of it.

But in general, absolutely agreed.

One point of clarification is that Corsi isn't shots on goal. It's shots towards the net, or:

Shots on Goal + Blocked Shots + Missed Shots

So it's not purely a SOG measure.

Also, unless they are given the opportunity to play more against weaker competition, it is difficult to compare their stats. Switch Backlund and Joker's roles for a while and then compare their stats - then you would have useful data.

Suprisingly, Backlund also has an abnormally high QoC number 1.434 and faces much more difficult opposition than most of the team. However, he has a decent Corsi number, considering he plays tougher QoC than Kesler or Datsyuk (relative to the team). Not saying they are equal or Backlund is better, but Backlund actually an impressive player from a Corsi perspective. This is one of the core statistical arguments around the fact he's having bad luck more than playing badly. He also has a 5% shooting percentage...

This is also an area where Corsi struggles and I think it applies fantastically to Backs as an example. He gets lots of opportunities and is a fair dynamic player (and doesn't give up alot of opportunities). However, his finish is lacking. Corsi doesn't capture this as it's shots towards the goal, which Backlund doesn't have a problem with. His problem is getting shots INTO the goal.

I recalled seeing that Joker/Iggy are very low in terms of offensive zone starts and to me that's wrong.

You're right, but that applies to the whole team unfortunately.

Flames' Centres O-Zone starts:

Jokinen - 47.7%

Backlund - 44.6%

Jones - 38.7%

Stajan - 50.3%

Not much can be done there.

[C_worthy]

I agree, great post.

What I take away from this is actually more towards the coach. Sutter has almost exclusivly paired his top line with the other top line and gone power and power for much of this season so he is asking Joker/Iggy to play both sides essentially. I find you would see more shots and more zone time from Joker is he wasn't always lined up against the opposition's top line. I recalled seeing that Joker/Iggy are very low in terms of offensive zone starts and to me that's wrong.

I also think you'd see more consistant offensive out of that group is once and a while Sutter would line match and get them better matchups.

This is pretty much the argument in favour of acquiring Carter.

If Iggy, Joker and Tanguay could get the kind of positive situational time that the Sedins get, I would think they would post offensive numbers much closer to the other top lines.

In fact, when Jones went up against Thornton, Joker had a career night (miniscule sample size, I know)

[cross16]

This is pretty much the argument in favour of acquiring Carter.

If Iggy, Joker and Tanguay could get the kind of positive situational time that the Sedins get, I would think they would post offensive numbers much closer to the other top lines.

In fact, when Jones went up against Thornton, Joker had a career night (miniscule sample size, I know)

It's two fold for me. I think it points that I think Sutter can do a better job line matching and putting his players in successful positions, but aboslutely I agree that it points to the fact that the Flames need another top line center. Jokinen is playing like one, for now, but having another one just gives so many more options so I agree you can't be content and say oh Jokinen is fine we don't need to acquiring another center, because they do.

Jokinen not being great at faceoffs plays into this as well..

[DL44]

A slight Debbie Downer here... but a little context is required when using these stats.

The Rel Corsi QoC is difficult to compare players on different teams..

Much like Plus/minus, it's used best when comparing players on the same team rather than vs players on different teams.

Reason - teams with the higher ranked players (in terms of how behindthenet measures Quality) are hindered by not having to play themselves in order to help their own ranking.

lesser teams get a greater boost from playing the better teams with better players to help boost their numbers.

A quick glance at the top 20 - You have Girardi who plays half the bloody gm every gm... but then you have a noticeable lack of representation of most of the top teams... No Wings, Bruins, Canucks, Pens, Flyers... who hold a handful of the top ranking quality players which the teams playing them are able to boost their own QoC stats to a greater degree..

...

[another_one_bites_the_dust]

Corsi is really just another useless DUMB statistic for one to ponder over. It MEANS NOTHING. I tell you this horse has been running well, and just took a pee before the race. You bet on it.

Corsi is no more a statistic then any other statistic! I mean I love statistics, but C'MON. Sure it's great to see the Flames leading the league in something, BUT C'MON!!!! REALLY? Chris Butler in the top 10 in the league???????? hahahaha

That just tells you what Corsi means.....

NOTHING!!!! get over it, but good to know the Flames lead the league in something OTHER then sucking at faceoffs!

[DL44]

Corsi is really just another useless DUMB statistic for one to ponder over. It MEANS NOTHING. I tell you this horse has been running well, and just took a pee before the race. You bet on it.

Corsi is no more a statistic then any other statistic! I mean I love statistics, but C'MON. Sure it's great to see the Flames leading the league in something, BUT C'MON!!!! REALLY? Chris Butler in the top 10 in the league???????? hahahaha

That just tells you what Corsi means.....

NOTHING!!!! get over it, but good to know the Flames lead the league in something OTHER then sucking at faceoffs!

An example of someone that doesn't understand 'context'.

[another_one_bites_the_dust]

An example of someone that doesn't understand 'context'.

oh, I understand "context"

but unlike YOU, I don't need a weatherman to tell me it is gonna RAIN!

[DL44]

oh, I understand "context"

but unlike YOU, I don't need a weatherman to tell me it is gonna RAIN!

???

umm.. ok.

you must be right. The stat is meaningless. I can't believe the pros keep the stat. I mean it's completely useless. It has nooo use whatsoever. no one should ever refer to the stat ever. in has no place. what where they thinking of? they obviously weren't. I'm gonna go check the weather now.