kehatch Posted March 22, 2011 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 The Flames are still in it, they have just made their road a bit tougher by giving their opponent 2 points and sacrificing one of their own. But last nights game is over. So is the set. Another begins tonight. Not a must win game tonight, but it is pretty darn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ameter Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 Speaking of the 3 game tracker, why has everyone lost sight of the fact that we are above pace still? The world hasn't come to an end. The only reason it seems like it has is because the teams we're competing against have yet to have their crunch matches against eachother at the end of the year. The Pacific division is going to spread wide open in the last two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geos Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 Because 92 points will not be enough, period. Seriously, Anahiem could go 3-6-1 and we'd be out based on the tracker. Three game tracker is broken, no longer applies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ameter Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 2 out of 3 doesn't take us to 92 points, it takes us to 94/95. And so what if Anaheim goes on a tear? All that means is the others won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 2 out of 3 doesn't take us to 92 points, it takes us to 94/95. And so what if Anaheim goes on a tear? All that means is the others won't. I don't think people grasp the concept that a lot of the games in hand that teams ahead of the flames have are garanteed losses since they are vs each other... Ot pt here or there not with standing... It's all going to come down to the last 2 gms of the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geos Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 I don't think people grasp the concept that a lot of the games in hand that teams ahead of the flames have are garanteed losses since they are vs each other... Ot pt here or there not with standing...It's all going to come down to the last 2 gms of the season... This may be true, but we have to eliminate 2 of the 3 Pacific Teams ahead of us. I think we can eliminate one on this basis, but it's not like LA will win ALL games and Anahiem and Dallas will have to LOSE all games, which is what would have to happen if you're idea were to hold. L.A. only plays Anahiem twice and not once against Dallas. So I'm not sure if that statement you made is even true. Even if Anahiem goes 0-2 against L.A., it's not a huge boost. Then what of Dallas? And yes, I agree I was wrong. 2 out of 3 gets us 95 points. Anahiem, Dallas and Nashville all get to that level just playing .500 so it's not good enough. Despite some head to head games this week, no team in the top 8 other than Detroit is below .700. Oh wait, Phoenix is waffling a bit at .650. So we're not even close at this point. Simple reality? 4-4-2 when other teams are 6-2-2 is not going to cut it. Our last 5 is 1-2-2. Not good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheriforPM Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 I am with Ameter on this one. Good post and thank you DL for pointing that out. I agree also. I never got to watch the old style of hockey live. I have watched series like the Canada Cup with my Dad and also he has a bunch on DVD. That hockey was exciting, fast and far outpaces the generic baby formula we watch today. Fighting is an institution in the sport. Just like diving is in European football. If UK Flamer doesn't like our game, I am sure Cricket can be found on the BBC most nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flyerfan52 Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 I am with Ameter on this one. Good post and thank you DL for pointing that out. I agree also. I never got to watch the old style of hockey live. I have watched series like the Canada Cup with my Dad and also he has a bunch on DVD. That hockey was exciting, fast and far outpaces the generic baby formula we watch today. Fighting is an institution in the sport. Just like diving is in European football. If UK Flamer doesn't like our game, I am sure Cricket can be found on the BBC most nights. I also agree with you guys & thank DL for trying to clarify things for some posters. As likely expected I also agree with 111 about the old time hockey. There is a reason those players are still considered the greats. UK, 111 wasn't talking about modern day enforcers as they are little more then a sideshow. He was referring to the days when players were allowed to stand up for themselves to discipline players like the chippy cheap shot artists that are now running wild because they have nothing to fear. It's attitudes like they have that lead to the real garbage like the Cooke head shot. If he knew there was a good chance the nearest Ranger would grab him & pound him into the ice he'd have watched his elbows a bit closer but the instigator penalty protects the weasels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted March 22, 2011 Report Share Posted March 22, 2011 This may be true, but we have to eliminate 2 of the 3 Pacific Teams ahead of us. I think we can eliminate one on this basis, but it's not like LA will win ALL games and Anahiem and Dallas will have to LOSE all games, which is what would have to happen if you're idea were to hold. L.A. only plays Anahiem twice and not once against Dallas. So I'm not sure if that statement you made is even true. Even if Anahiem goes 0-2 against L.A., it's not a huge boost. Then what of Dallas? And yes, I agree I was wrong. 2 out of 3 gets us 95 points. Anahiem, Dallas and Nashville all get to that level just playing .500 so it's not good enough. Despite some head to head games this week, no team in the top 8 other than Detroit is below .700. Oh wait, Phoenix is waffling a bit at .650. So we're not even close at this point. Simple reality? 4-4-2 when other teams are 6-2-2 is not going to cut it. Our last 5 is 1-2-2. Not good enough. I posted this in another thread... but i think i wanted to post here for you to see and try.... based on the remaining games, and teams in the race playing each other, i don't think 97 will be the low water mark... Here's a spreadsheet from Calgarypuck: http://www.calgarypuck.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/race20110321.xls I filled in the following to try to set up the 8th seed at 97 pts.. Essentially i had every team beating the teams out of the playoffs and basically splitting games with each other... 4 Pho finishing 6-2 101 5 Hawks 7-3 100 pts 6 Kings 6-4 98 pts 7 Stars 6-4 97 pts 8 Ducks 6-4 97 pts Preds 5-4 96 pts Flames 5-2 95 pts Go ahead and play... One thing becomes very clear... wins by one team = losses by another... and this assuming almost worst case scenario - every team running the table vs the Wild, Blues,Jackets, Oilers, AND Avs (17-0)... which is unlikely... If one team goes on a run to sweep a 2-3 game segment (outside beating the feeders)... that means 2-3 teams in the race are missing those 4-6 pts from their standings. So i don't really see 97 pts being the floor of the West. Obviously it could be... in worst case scenario land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flame111 Posted March 23, 2011 Report Share Posted March 23, 2011 ^^^^ I think the Floor is going to be 97 or even higher and the reason is the three point games I have a feeling we will see even more of here in the final stretch. Very cool spreadsheet - thanks for linking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Don Posted March 23, 2011 Report Share Posted March 23, 2011 Cool spreadsheet. This is how I did it. Flames go 7-0 from here (well, 7-0-1 beacuse they included LA game) and set all the other teams with "reasonable" winning records as follows: Phoenix: 5-2-1 Los Angeles: 7-1-2 Dallas: 6-3-1 Chicago: 6-2-2 Nashville: 5-1-3 Anaheim: 6-2-2 And the standings would be: 4. LA - 102 5. Phoenix - 100 6. Chicago - 100 7. Anaheim - 99 8. Nashville - 99 9. Calgary - 99 10. Dallas - 98 So even winning out doesn't guarantee anything. However, it is unlikely that EVERY team will have a winning record, especially with so many games against each other. However, the 3-point game could be the killer. My projections had 10 3-point games between these teams, which is likely on the high side. If you can keep that number low your chances greatly improve. It should be a fun battle to watch (well, fun for me, agonizing and nail-biting for you). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flame111 Posted March 23, 2011 Report Share Posted March 23, 2011 Cool spreadsheet. This is how I did it. Flames go 7-0 from here (well, 7-0-1 beacuse they included LA game) and set all the other teams with "reasonable" winning records as follows: Phoenix: 5-2-1 Los Angeles: 7-1-2 Dallas: 6-3-1 Chicago: 6-2-2 Nashville: 5-1-3 Anaheim: 6-2-2 And the standings would be: 4. LA - 102 5. Phoenix - 100 6. Chicago - 100 7. Anaheim - 99 8. Nashville - 99 9. Calgary - 99 10. Dallas - 98 So even winning out doesn't guarantee anything. However, it is unlikely that EVERY team will have a winning record, especially with so many games against each other. However, the 3-point game could be the killer. My projections had 10 3-point games between these teams, which is likely on the high side. If you can keep that number low your chances greatly improve. It should be a fun battle to watch (well, fun for me, agonizing and nail-biting for you). I call the Preds as more probable to be in at this point based on their easier schedule. They have their big wins mostly in the bank. The team that needs to lose is the Ducks and lose in reg time. That is the one that I am watching, the Stars have a iffyl schedule so I don't expect them to get in but at this point it is the Ducks that need to take some regular time losses, if the Flames want to maintain a prayer of getting in. I hate when you get past the point of winning in but it is looking grim at this point. Even assuming a win out for the rest of the season it will be pretty tough. Just a couple of select three point games and the playoffs are gone... That why I was so choked on the Ducks game. A reg time win against the Ducks and the world is different. Too little too late for the Flames - so many games to look back on and the sad thing is that the Flames in 2011 really showed they were a decent team. The Flames of 2010 were so terrible - too bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DL44 Posted March 23, 2011 Report Share Posted March 23, 2011 ^^^^ I think the Floor is going to be 97 or even higher and the reason is the three point games I have a feeling we will see even more of here in the final stretch. Very cool spreadsheet - thanks for linking... but keep in mind i stated teams would be sweeping every other team not making the playoffs.. (17-0). So if they sweep, then yeah... the floor would likely be higher with a few OTLs in there... but i figure a couple OTL pts would be cancelled by a handful of losses to the dwellers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happycat Posted March 23, 2011 Report Share Posted March 23, 2011 THis may seem silly. But I don't understand what these numbers mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ameter Posted March 23, 2011 Report Share Posted March 23, 2011 This may be true, but we have to eliminate 2 of the 3 Pacific Teams ahead of us. I think we can eliminate one on this basis, but it's not like LA will win ALL games and Anahiem and Dallas will have to LOSE all games, which is what would have to happen if you're idea were to hold. L.A. only plays Anahiem twice and not once against Dallas. So I'm not sure if that statement you made is even true. Even if Anahiem goes 0-2 against L.A., it's not a huge boost. Then what of Dallas? And yes, I agree I was wrong. 2 out of 3 gets us 95 points. Anahiem, Dallas and Nashville all get to that level just playing .500 so it's not good enough. Despite some head to head games this week, no team in the top 8 other than Detroit is below .700. Oh wait, Phoenix is waffling a bit at .650. So we're not even close at this point. Simple reality? 4-4-2 when other teams are 6-2-2 is not going to cut it. Our last 5 is 1-2-2. Not good enough. Here's a novel concept. Shut your trap and wait to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheriforPM Posted March 23, 2011 Report Share Posted March 23, 2011 I have come to the conclusion that I will not have any nails left to bite after this season is over. As PL loves to say "Not for the faint of heart" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthHenning Posted March 27, 2011 Report Share Posted March 27, 2011 right on pace with 2 sections left. JUst need to win 5 straight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyDeeds Posted March 27, 2011 Report Share Posted March 27, 2011 I have come to the conclusion that I will not have any nails left to bite after this season is over. As PL loves to say "Not for the faint of heart" lol Might I suggest some "finger covers" or something similar to prevent that problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kehatch Posted March 27, 2011 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2011 The good news is the Flames won their game last night and managed to keep themselves on the pace of 4 out of 6 points per 3-game series. The bad news is that for only the second time in a decade 95-points probably won't be good enough to make the playoffs. In fact, Anaheim is currently projecting at 97-points (which will be a modern record for points needed to make the playoffs). That means the Flames may already be out as they can only make 97-points and they lose in a tie breaker. Oh well. All they can do is try to sweep the remaining 5 and hope the out of town scoreboard does them some favors. Fortunately one of the games is against Anaheim which gives them a small amount of control. Not sure how confident I am with them managing that though. They have 2-wins in the last 8-games. One against Colorado. The other a poorly played game that required some last minute heroics (and luck) against Edmonton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthHenning Posted March 28, 2011 Report Share Posted March 28, 2011 The main thing is winning the last 5. Dallas isn't doing great right now so running the table would allow us to pass them for 9th. The question is if Anahiem or Chicago will drop off. Chicago is the closest to screwing up, but less likely to do so IMHO. It really comes down to us getting 97 points, and one of them getting 96, which is quite reasonable and possible. Both need to get over .500 to get in, and so there's a decent chance that at least one will only manage .500. We're far FAR from in the clear even if we do sweep from here on out, at least we have a chance though, and right now that's all we can ask for. (and some heroics from Iggy, Steve-who-would-have-ever-thought-he-might-have-just-saved-our-season-Staios, and co) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kehatch Posted April 4, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2011 Well, they did it. They met their goal of 4 out of 6 points for the listed games. It was a major accomplishment and the team should feel some pride. Unfortunately it probably won't be enough. Even if the Flames do win their next two any two of CHI (1-2-1), ANA (1-2-0), or DAL (3-1-0) making it to 95-points will keep the Flames out. Here is hoping for a three game losing streak for Chicago and Anaheim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthHenning Posted April 6, 2011 Report Share Posted April 6, 2011 If we can win our last two we'll hit exactly the goal we aimed for. A goal that 9/10 seasons would get us into the playoffs. There was no way to know back in December that its likely a modern record will be set for playoff requirements. What's amazing is we can still possibly make it despite that. I have nothing to complain about with the Flames. Since Dec. 23, they have played 0.666 hockey. Second best in the league: VAN - 0.706 CAL - 0.666 *Since Dec. 23* WSH - 0.656 SJS - 0.652 DET - 0.646 PHI - 0.644 PIT - 0.638 BOS - 0.627 TBL - 0.619 PHO - 0.608 LAK - 0.608 NSH - 0.606 I think we can pause for a moment and realize that we are NOT a bubble team on the whole, but actually one of the best in the league. And if we play from Day 1 next season, there's a good chance we could be President's Trophy and Cup Contenders by a large margin. I am proud of the team, and almost every player on it. We don't need to blow things up. We need to make minor tweaks, and go forward strong. GO FLAMES GO! EDIT: For those wanting a reference for other teams over that stretch this blog tracks stats since the all-star break. We're number 6. Tied with Washington. One point behind Vancouver. Devils, Sharks and Kings ahead. http://www.nhlfansite.com/blog/Records-since-the-All-Star-break-47564 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cross16 Posted April 6, 2011 Report Share Posted April 6, 2011 Since the Heritage Classic, Flames are 9-7-3. Good for a 0.55% percentage of points/games played. And keep in mind they lost several games when they knew what they needed to do. I'm not suggesting you can't believe in the team, but to suggest that the Flames are close to a cup contender is very offside. A streak of 30 games does not make a team, nor a season. I give the Flames alot of credit I didn't think they would do it. But i'm less encouraged becuase when push came to shove and the pressure was on they did not push back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthHenning Posted April 6, 2011 Report Share Posted April 6, 2011 Both the stats I presented include that streak of poor play. My point is, that we're judging playoff worthyness based on the inclusion of horrible hockey from the start of the season. Since we turned it around EVEN INCLUDING the recent losing spat, we're one of the best teams by most measures. Perfect? no. But not nearly as bad as a lot of people make out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Don Posted April 7, 2011 Report Share Posted April 7, 2011 I think we can pause for a moment and realize that we are NOT a bubble team on the whole, but actually one of the best in the league. And if we play from Day 1 next season, there's a good chance we could be President's Trophy and Cup Contenders by a large margin. I don't think that is accurate. "on the whole" should include the "whole" season, no? The Flames have played as well as anyone for a significant stretch, but the difference between the Flames and actual top teams is how bad they can be. No top team has put together a stretch anywhere near as bad as the Flames did for the first 2+ months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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